Predicting the Oscar Noms

As I was saying before, does anyone understand this? Seriously; I don't get it. If 5% of the submitted first place votes gets you a nomination, surely that must mean ten nominees. 3,000 people are not going to all put the Artist first, right? (RIGHT?) Couldn't 300 put War Horse, 300 put Tree of Life and so on and so forth? And if more than 10 films earn 5%, is that when the second and third ranked films weigh in? I'm confused.

I'll make up my own awards of what I think SHOULD be nominated later, but what do I think will actually make the cut tomorrow morning? Here we go:

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Hugo
Moneyball

I'm positive on those six. I think Girl with the Dragon and Tree of Life will take the next two and it will be 8 nominees.

If it is 10 nominees, I'll add War Horse and (sigh) Bridesmaids. Hoping for a Drive or Ides of March spoiler.

Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
David Fincher, Dragon Tattoo
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Terrence Malick, Tree of Life, and Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive, as spoilers. I think Steven Spielberg is out. Then again, were ballots due before the PGA honors?

Best Actress
Rooney Mara
Viola Davis
Meryl Streep
Michelle Williams
Tilda Swinton

Glenn Close as spoiler. *sigh* I'd like to put SWINTON as spoiler, since she has an oscar already, but I'm just not sure Glenn Close is ever going to get it. Dragon Tattoo has surged, and both Albert Nobbs and Iron Lady are not good films around a central performance. I don't see Glenn getting in. Probably. She and Rooney Mara are close.

Best Actor
George Clooney
Brad Pitt
Jean Dujardin
Michael Fassbender
Gary Oldman

Yup. I think the recent nods for Gary Oldman and the fact that J. Edgar has completely faded means Leo is out. Still, Leo for a spoiler, and Michael Shannon. (I just don't see Ryan Gosling or Demian Bichir.)

Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer
Melissa McCarthy
Berenice Bejo
Jessica Chastain
Shailene Woodley

Janet McTeer and Vanessa Redgrave as spoilers. Janet McTeer and Shailene Woodley are awfully neck in neck. Hmmm...

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer
Albert Brooks
Keneth Branagh
Jonah Hill
Nick Nolte

Max Von Sydow as spoiler, although the vitriol directed at Extremely/Incredibly Close/Loud (or whatever) is so intense that I think it puts him out. Ben Kingsley as a more likely spoiler. I don't see Andy Serkis getting it, but wouldn't that be lovely?

The other categories after the jump:


Best Original Screenplay
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Win Win and Young Adult as spoilers.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball

Tinker Tailor as spoiler.

Animated
Rango
Puss in Boots
Tintin
Kung Fu Panda 2
Arthur Christmas

Rio and Chico & Rita as spoilers.

Foreign
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
Pina
A Separation

Bullhead as spoiler.

Documentary
If a Tree Falls
Buck
Pina
Project Nim
We Were Here

Bill Cunningham as spoiler.

Cinematography
Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor
Tree of Life
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

War Horse as spoiler.

Editing
Artist
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor

War Horse and The Descendants as spoilers.

Art Direction
Artist
Harry Potter
Hugo
Tinker Tailor
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The Help and Pirates as spoilers. (Drive? Drive?) (I would say War Horse, but it didn't get a guild nom...)

Costume
Artist
Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Harry Potter and Tinker Tailor as spoilers. (Girl with the Dragon Tattoo? Melancholia? Drive?)

Score
Tinker Tailor
Artist
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse

Jane Eyre and Tintin as spoilers. (War Horse seems like a shoe-in, but I've noticed several criticisms leveled directly at the score.) God I wish Hanna and Drive were in here.

Song
Lay Your Head Down - Albert Nobbs
The Living Proof - The Help
Life's a Happy Song - The Muppets
Man or Muppet - The Muppets
Hello Hello - Gnomeo and Juliet

Coeur Volant - Hugo as spoiler. Although I'd personally prefer Star Spangled Man from Captain America. Captain-ettes!

Sound Mixing
Hugo
Super 8
Transformers
Moneyball
Pirates

Hanna, Planet of the Apes and Mission Impossible as spoilers. Maybe War Horse. I can never tell if the Oscars will follow the actual sound guilds. I think it may just go to the noisiest films (Transformers, MI4, Apes, Super 8, Pirates).

Sound Editing
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Transformers
War Horse
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Drive and Hugo as spoilers. Maybe Harry Potter.

Visual Effects
Harry Potter
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers
Tree of Life

Captain America as spoiler.

Makeup
The Iron Lady
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter

Hugo and the Artist as spoilers.

Short Animated
I Tawt I Taw A Puddy Tat
La Luna
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Wild Life
Magic Piano

Luminaris and Paths of Hate as spoilers.

Short Live
Time Freak
Love at First Sight
Pentecost
Raju
The Roar of the Sea

The Road Home and Sailcloth as spoilers.

Short Documentary
In Tahrir Square
Pipe Dreams
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Saving Face
Witness

Incident in Baghdad and The Barber of Birmingham as spoilers.