2016 Oscar Predictions

Okay easy blog first: What should win/What will win (As always, happy if a should win makes an upset tomorrow.)

Best Motion Picture:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant - Will Win
Room
Spotlight - Should Win

I mean. Carol should be nominated. But I do really love Spotlight - it's great, and I'm glad it won the indie.

Best Actor:
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant - Should Win/Will Win
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Huh - I'm not thrilled with this category at all. So I'll go with Leo, although he was better in both Catch Me if You Can and Wolf of Wall Street.

Best Actress:
Brie Larson, Room - Will win
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn - Should win
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara should absolutely be in the opposite categories (as should Alicia Vikander). So I'm not voting for them (although Rooney Mara does absolutely amazing work.) So it comes down to Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan for me. They're both excellent, and Saorsie *just* nudges it out for me, as she carries the whole film so well.

Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight - Should Win
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl - Will Win
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

CATEGORY FRAUD AHOY. I'd be okay if Alicia Vikander were up for Ex Machina. Sheesh. I've heard Kate Winslet is excellent in Jobs, but I'm going to go with Rachel McAdams, who was great in Spotlight (the whole cast was - I'm sorry it didn't get more recognition in acting in Oscars - I'm thrilled it got the Altman at the Indies.)

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies - Should Win
Sylvester Stallone, Creed - Will Win

Christian Bale was also easily the best part of the Big Short. I thought Ruffalo was the weakest link in Spotlight - his big monologue was too showy.

Best Director:
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road - Should Win
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant - Will Win
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Best Original Screenplay:

Bridge of Spies

Ex Machina

Inside Out

Spotlight - Should Win/ Will Win

Straight Outta Compton

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Big Short

Brooklyn

Carol - Should Win

The Martian

Room - Will Win

It may actually be The Big Short, but I hated the writing so much that I can't deal with that. So I'm going with Room as will win. 

Best Animated Film:
Anomalisa - Probably Should Win (I haven't seen it yet!)
Boy and the World
Inside Out - Will Win
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Best Documentary Feature:
Amy - Will Win
Cartel Land
What Happened, Miss Simone?
The Look of Silence - Should Win
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Best Foreign Language Film:

Embrace of the Serpent

Mustang

Son of Saul - Should Win/Will Win

Theeb

A War

Although I do still really want to see Mustang. 

Best Costume Design:
Carol - Should Win
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road - Will Win
The Revenant

I think Sandy Powell will split her own votes, so yay Mad Max!

Best Sound Editing:
Mad Max: Fury Road - Should Win/ Will Win
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound Mixing:
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road - Should Win/ Will Win
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Cinematography:

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant - Should Win/ Will Win

Sicario

I love the Cinematography in all of these. But the cinematography was easily the best part of the Revenant, and I so love Emmanuel Lubezki's work and pretty wilderness shots. I'm not sure I want him to win three in a row (Roger Deakins already!!), but there it is. That's what the Revenant has to recommend itself. Long pretty shots of birch trees. 

Best Film Editing:

The Big Short

Mad Max: Fury Road - Should Win/ Will Win

The Revenant

Spotlight

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Production Design:

Bridge of Spies

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road - Should Win/ Will Win

The Martian

The Revenant

Best Original Score:

Bridge of Spies

Carol - Should Win

The Hateful Eight - Will Win

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

That said, I do love the Hateful Eight score. I loved that movie - and I'm sorry it's not up for more. 

Best Original Song:

“Earned It,” 50 Shades Of Grey - Should Win

“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction

“Simple Song #3,” Youth

“Til It Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground - Will Win

“Writing’s on the Wall,” Spectre

WHY WOULD YOU NOMINATE THE SPECTRE SONG?! (I also really like Manta Ray - and I'm absolutely appalled that the Oscars didn't invite Anohni to perform. I actually thought the Weeknd would have more of a shot here, but prevailing opinion is Lady Gaga has this in the bag.)

Best Visual Effects:

Ex Machina

Mad Max: Fury Road - Should Win

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens - Will Win

Hmmm - I'm very torn on this. My gut reaction is Mad Max, but part of the appeal of the film was just how much of it was done with practical effects. The VES awards all went Star Wars - so I'm going to say that Star Wars takes this one. 

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

Mad Max - Should Win/ Will Win

The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared

The Revenant

Best Documentary Short:

Body Team 12 - Will Win & from what I hear Should Win

Chau Behind the Lines

Claude Lanzman

A Girl in the River

Last Day of Freedom

Best Live Action Short Film:

Ave Maria - Will Win

Day One

Everything Will Be Okay - Should Win

Shok

Stutterer

Hum. The only one I liked was Stutterer, and that was too precious. The prevailing crowd wisdom seems to be Ave Maria, which I thought was not particularly well done, although it was an interesting setting. I thought the German film was probably best, although the subject matter was so harrowing to watch. Then again, the Academy skews Jewish, so I think Ave Maria might edge it out. 

Best Animated Short Film:

Bear Story

Prologue

Sanjay’s Super Team

We Can’t Live Without Cosmos

World of Tomorrow - Should Win/ Will Win. 

I refuse to believe the Pixar one will pull it out over this.