It's that time! Let's Do This:
[Update: bolded = actual nominees. A passable 90/122. 118/122 if you count spoilers. The only 4 out of left field were Loving Vincent, Victoria & Abdul for makeup, Star Wars for Score, and Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 for short doc.]
Best Picture
Locks:
Call Me By Your Name*
Dunkirk*
Get Out*
I, Tonya*
Lady Bird*
The Shape of Water*
Three Billboards*
Up to 10 nominees:
The Big Sick
The Post
Wonder Woman*
Spoilers:
Molly's Game*
Phantom Thread*
Darkest Hour
The Florida Project*
*if I could pick (of the things that have a shot at a nomination. My awards coming later.)
[I'm honestly shocked Darkest Hour is in there over I, Tonya (and bummed. I really like I Tonya). Someone on Twitter thought perhaps Tim League was dinged as distributor for allowing a toxic environment at Fantastic Fest and the Drafthouse and then bungling the fix.
But YAY Phantom Thread!!!]
Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Sally Hawkins, Shape of Water
Saorsie Ronan, Lady Bird
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Spoilers:
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
[Ah well. I was pulling for you, Jessica.]
Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Tom Hanks, The Post
Spoilers:
James Franco, Disaster Artist
Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel
Before the GGs I would've switched Hanks and Franco. But perhaps enough people voted before the bad press reminder? And Hollywood loves a Hollywood story... (Maybe Gyllenhaal actually has a shot? I mean, has Roman J Israel even come out?)
[Well, I was right about Franco...]
Supporting Actress
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Mary J Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, Shape of Water
Spoilers:
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
I'm really not sure about slot 5. I hope Hong Chau makes it in. I've heard too many polarizing things about downsizing to feel she's in the lead, although SAG is the largest block of voters, but she was SO FANTASTIC in Inherent Vice that I have my fingers crossed for her.
[Whoa. I really didn't expect Holly Hunter to be bumped. (That's too bad - she was my favorite part of the Big Sick.) But hey! Lesley Manville! She is FAB in PT.]
Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Willem Dafoe, Florida Project
Richard Jenkins, Shape of Water
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Spoilers:
Michael Stuhlbarg, everything, but especially CMBYN
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards
(I'll be tickled if it is this group. I really like all of these folks!)
Spoilers:
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Luca Guadagnino, CMBYN
[Yay Phantom Thread! I'm totally okay with that swap.]
Screenplay - Original
Lady Bird
Shape of Water
Big Sick
Three Billboards
Get Out
Spoilers:
I, Tonya
Phantom Thread
The Post
Screenplay - Adapted
Molly's Game
Mudbound
CMBYN
Logan
Disaster Artist
Spoilers:
I.... honest to god think that'll be the 5. Logan is random, but I can't imagine what would replace it, and it's got two of the big pre-award noms. Wonder Woman? That's the only other adapted screenplay I can even think of.
Animated
Are we in a 5 year? Christ.
Boss Baby
Lego Batman
Coco
Ferdinand
Despicable Me 3
Spoilers:
The Breadwinner
Mary & the Witch's Flower
Too bad Loving Vincent isn't eligible... (although I've seen it on several lists. Do I have that wrong?)
[Turns out it was eligible! I had bad info.]
Documentary
Jane
Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts
Cries from Syria
Kedi
Spoilers:
Strong Island
Abacus
An Inconvenient Sequel
Dawson City (not sure if this is eligible?)
Faces, Places
Ex Libris
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
*shrug* (Jane! Jane!)
[What a TOTALLY BIZARRE set of nominees. Jane WON the PGA, NBR, and Critics Choice awards, plus the audience award at Cinema Eye, and was nominated for the WGA, BAFTA, ACE Eddie, and was shortlisted for DOC NY. I honestly thought it was a lock after the PGA/WGA.]
Foreign
A Fantastic Woman
In the Fade
The Square
Loveless
The Insult
Spoilers:
Foxtrot
On Body and Soul
Felicite
The Wound
It's still bizarre to me that First They Killed My Father, BPM, and Thelma were left off. I mean, Raw, I could understand...
[Whoa. VERY surprised In The Fade didn't make it.]
Editing
Three Billboards
Dunkirk
Get Out
Shape of Water
Baby Driver
Spoilers:
Molly's Game
I, Tonya
Blade Runner
The Post
Lady Bird
CMBYN
I've swapped Get Out and Molly's Game back and forth several times. Were it just editing, I could see the Academy going Molly's Game, but editing so often goes along with runs of other nominations. (my pure editing nod here is Baby Driver, because I do think they'll go for that; it's so fun and flashy.) I doubt CMBYN will make it in, since it's only up for an indie and not an ACE Eddie, unless it does a surprising sweep. I, Tonya also has a shot here.
[Pleased with this group. Although how bizarre for I, Tonya to make it in here and not Best Picture.]
Cinematography
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
Mudbound (PLEASE)
Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Spoilers:
CMBYN
Three Billboards
Florida Project
[YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
It only took 651 nominations to get here.]
Costumes
Phantom Thread
Shape of Water
Murder on the Orient Express
I, Tonya
Beauty and the Beast
Spoilers:
Wonder Woman
Blade Runner
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Greatest Showman
Victoria & Abdul
Makeup
Wonder
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Spoilers:
Guardians of the Galaxy
I mean... Ghost in the Shell or Bright if we want to continue the Suicide Squad streak.
Not predicted:
Victoria & Abdul
[I... really?]
Production Design
Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Blade Runner
Beauty and the Beast
Spoilers:
Murder on the Orient Express
Downsizing
Phantom Thread
Wonder Woman
Visual Effects
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
War for the Planet of the Apes
Star Wars
Guardians
Spoilers:
Kong
Shape of Water
Valerian
Score
Phantom Thread
Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
Spoilers:
Three Billboards
Blade Runner
Not Predicted:
Star Wars
[Really. You all went with John William's Star Wars and not the Post? Okay.]
“Remember Me” - Coco[Update: bolded = actual nominees. A passable 90/122. 118/122 if you count spoilers. The only 4 out of left field were Loving Vincent, Victoria & Abdul for makeup, Star Wars for Score, and Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 for short doc.]
Best Picture
Locks:
Call Me By Your Name*
Dunkirk*
Get Out*
I, Tonya*
Lady Bird*
The Shape of Water*
Three Billboards*
Up to 10 nominees:
The Big Sick
The Post
Wonder Woman*
Spoilers:
Molly's Game*
Phantom Thread*
Darkest Hour
The Florida Project*
*if I could pick (of the things that have a shot at a nomination. My awards coming later.)
[I'm honestly shocked Darkest Hour is in there over I, Tonya (and bummed. I really like I Tonya). Someone on Twitter thought perhaps Tim League was dinged as distributor for allowing a toxic environment at Fantastic Fest and the Drafthouse and then bungling the fix.
But YAY Phantom Thread!!!]
Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Sally Hawkins, Shape of Water
Saorsie Ronan, Lady Bird
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Spoilers:
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
[Ah well. I was pulling for you, Jessica.]
Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Tom Hanks, The Post
Spoilers:
James Franco, Disaster Artist
Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel
Before the GGs I would've switched Hanks and Franco. But perhaps enough people voted before the bad press reminder? And Hollywood loves a Hollywood story... (Maybe Gyllenhaal actually has a shot? I mean, has Roman J Israel even come out?)
[Well, I was right about Franco...]
Supporting Actress
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Mary J Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, Shape of Water
Spoilers:
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
I'm really not sure about slot 5. I hope Hong Chau makes it in. I've heard too many polarizing things about downsizing to feel she's in the lead, although SAG is the largest block of voters, but she was SO FANTASTIC in Inherent Vice that I have my fingers crossed for her.
[Whoa. I really didn't expect Holly Hunter to be bumped. (That's too bad - she was my favorite part of the Big Sick.) But hey! Lesley Manville! She is FAB in PT.]
Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Willem Dafoe, Florida Project
Richard Jenkins, Shape of Water
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Spoilers:
Michael Stuhlbarg, everything, but especially CMBYN
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards
(I'll be tickled if it is this group. I really like all of these folks!)
Spoilers:
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Luca Guadagnino, CMBYN
[Yay Phantom Thread! I'm totally okay with that swap.]
Screenplay - Original
Lady Bird
Shape of Water
Big Sick
Three Billboards
Get Out
Spoilers:
I, Tonya
Phantom Thread
The Post
Screenplay - Adapted
Molly's Game
Mudbound
CMBYN
Logan
Disaster Artist
Spoilers:
I.... honest to god think that'll be the 5. Logan is random, but I can't imagine what would replace it, and it's got two of the big pre-award noms. Wonder Woman? That's the only other adapted screenplay I can even think of.
Animated
Are we in a 5 year? Christ.
Boss Baby
Lego Batman
Coco
Ferdinand
Despicable Me 3
Spoilers:
The Breadwinner
Mary & the Witch's Flower
Too bad Loving Vincent isn't eligible... (although I've seen it on several lists. Do I have that wrong?)
[Turns out it was eligible! I had bad info.]
Documentary
Jane
Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts
Cries from Syria
Kedi
Spoilers:
Strong Island
Abacus
An Inconvenient Sequel
Dawson City (not sure if this is eligible?)
Faces, Places
Ex Libris
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
*shrug* (Jane! Jane!)
[What a TOTALLY BIZARRE set of nominees. Jane WON the PGA, NBR, and Critics Choice awards, plus the audience award at Cinema Eye, and was nominated for the WGA, BAFTA, ACE Eddie, and was shortlisted for DOC NY. I honestly thought it was a lock after the PGA/WGA.]
Foreign
A Fantastic Woman
In the Fade
The Square
Loveless
The Insult
Spoilers:
Foxtrot
On Body and Soul
Felicite
The Wound
It's still bizarre to me that First They Killed My Father, BPM, and Thelma were left off. I mean, Raw, I could understand...
[Whoa. VERY surprised In The Fade didn't make it.]
Editing
Three Billboards
Dunkirk
Get Out
Shape of Water
Baby Driver
Spoilers:
Molly's Game
I, Tonya
Blade Runner
The Post
Lady Bird
CMBYN
I've swapped Get Out and Molly's Game back and forth several times. Were it just editing, I could see the Academy going Molly's Game, but editing so often goes along with runs of other nominations. (my pure editing nod here is Baby Driver, because I do think they'll go for that; it's so fun and flashy.) I doubt CMBYN will make it in, since it's only up for an indie and not an ACE Eddie, unless it does a surprising sweep. I, Tonya also has a shot here.
[Pleased with this group. Although how bizarre for I, Tonya to make it in here and not Best Picture.]
Cinematography
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
Mudbound (PLEASE)
Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Spoilers:
CMBYN
Three Billboards
Florida Project
[YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
It only took 651 nominations to get here.]
Costumes
Phantom Thread
Shape of Water
Murder on the Orient Express
I, Tonya
Beauty and the Beast
Spoilers:
Wonder Woman
Blade Runner
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Greatest Showman
Victoria & Abdul
Makeup
Wonder
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Spoilers:
Guardians of the Galaxy
I mean... Ghost in the Shell or Bright if we want to continue the Suicide Squad streak.
Not predicted:
Victoria & Abdul
[I... really?]
Production Design
Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Blade Runner
Beauty and the Beast
Spoilers:
Murder on the Orient Express
Downsizing
Phantom Thread
Wonder Woman
Visual Effects
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
War for the Planet of the Apes
Star Wars
Guardians
Spoilers:
Kong
Shape of Water
Valerian
Score
Phantom Thread
Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
Spoilers:
Three Billboards
Blade Runner
Not Predicted:
Star Wars
[Really. You all went with John William's Star Wars and not the Post? Okay.]
Song
"Stand Up for Something" - Marshall - Andra Day
“Mystery Of Love” - Call Me by Your Name - Sufjan Stevens
“Evermore” - Beauty and the Beast
Spoilers
“Mighty River” - Mudbound - Mary J Blige
“Prayers for This World” – Cries From Syria – Cher
“Tell Me How Long” – Chasing Coral – Kristen Bell
“Jump” – Step - Cynthia Erivo
“Truth to Power” – An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power – OneRepublic
“Dancing Through the Wreckage” – Served Like a Girl – Pat Benatar
“Home” - Ferdinand“The Star” - The Star
Eesh. Like 90 on the shortlist, and somethings that are nominated elsewhere (Dina) aren't eligible. WHO KNOWS. (Step! Let Step be an oscar nominee!)
[Cool beans. I only swapped in Beauty and the Beast at the last minute. Yay Mary J Blige for becoming a double nominee!]
Mary J. Blige is the first person to be nominated for Best Original Song and Best Supporting Actress in the same year. Barbra Streisand just threw a beige pillow at a French door.— Louis Virtel (@louisvirtel) January 23, 2018
Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes
Spoilers:
Star Wars
Wonder Woman
Three Billboards
Coco
Transformers
Thor
Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Star Wars
Shape of Water
Greatest Showman
Spoilers:
Wonder Woman
Baby Driver
Blade Runner
Short Doc
Ten Meter Tower
Edith + Eddie
Heroin(e)
116 Cameras
Alone
Spoilers:
Traffic Stop
Ram Dass, Going Home
Knife Skills
(I have ACTUALLY seen 3 of these so far, so I have a clearer idea here than on live action...)
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
[WOW. The Academy voters are PISSED at the NYTimes.]
Short Live
I have ABSOLUTELY no idea.
DeKalb Elementary
Facing Mecca
The Silent Child
Witnesses
Lost Face
Spoilers:
My Nephew Emmett
Rise of a Star
Icebox
The Eleven O'Clock
Watu Wote/All of Us
Short Animated
Dear Basketball
Negative Space
Lou
Fox and the Whale
In a Heartbeat
Spoilers:
Revolting Rhymes
Lost Property Office
Garden Party
Fox and the Whale
Cradle
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