Updates in bold. The only three I didn't predict even as spoilers were score, visual effects and live action short. But in terms of proper predictions - I did really badly! 15/24. With spoilers 21/24 (which shows how many of these were two-horse races). Spider-Man, Free Solo, and the female-directed shorts were nice bright spots. And I'm sort of okay with my worst predictions in years coinciding with the worst Oscars in years. There's a nice symmetry in that.
Best Picture:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite - Should Win
Green Book - Spoiler, Did Win
Roma - Will Win
A Star Is Born
Vice
Another tricky year (bless Cheryl for pushing diversity in the voting body, so these become harder to predict!). Roma fans won't put Green Book for #2 (but will they split Black Panther and Blackkkansman?) and Green Book fans won't put Roma as #2. Roma also has an easy out in winning director/foreign, for those who look to spread the accolades around. Roma also missed out on editing, which is usually a good indicator for Best Picture, but the two competing there (Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody (Also: what. I know it's just because of the Live Aid sequence, but good god.)) are not likely Best Picture contenders.
[Update: GOOD GOD.]
Usually it's the PGA winner, which is Green Book. So the question becomes: can it survive the backlash? Is the Academy still enough old white men for it to win? SAG-AFTRA is sometimes a good bellwether because it's such a massive, populist group, and Green Book didn't land an ensemble nod there (Black Panther won). But the "AFTRA" portion doesn't overlap in large part with the voting body of the Academy. I could see Favourite stans listing Roma as 2nd. (I think the Favourite is too quirky to pull out a win, but it did enjoy broad support with 10 nominations.) And Roma did win the BAFTA, which has a fair bit of overlap in voting members.
In the end, I think Roma edges it, with Green Book and Black Panther as spoilers.
[Update: THE ACADEMY IS STILL OLD AND WHITE ENOUGH]
Here's where things will likely land for total awards [Ed: updated]:
Black Panther - Costumes, Production Design
BlacKkKlansman - Adapted Screenplay
Bohemian Rhapsody - Actor, Sound Editing & Mixing, Editing
The Favourite -Original Screenplay, Production Design, Actress (!!)
Green Book - Supporting actor, Original Screenplay, Picture
Roma -Picture, Director, Foreign, Cinematography
A Star Is Born - Song
Vice -Editing, Makeup
As always, the most interesting films get the screenplay awards.
Snub: Anything directed by a woman.
Update: UGHHHHHHHHHH FOREVER
Lead Actor:
Christian Bale, “Vice” - Spoiler
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” - Will Win, Did Win
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
I mean, the award will entirely be for surviving the nightmare of this entire situation. I have next to no opinion on a should win. I like Christian Bale's work a lot, but he has won before. Willem Dafoe is great and it would be nice to see him recognized, especially so soon after The Florida Project. Rami has basically swept: SAG/BAFTA/GG-D, Bale won the comedy GG.
Snub: Ethan Hawke (won the NSFC/Gotham, hopefully about to win the Indie Spirit in the next hour.) Ben Foster for being incredible in Leave No Trace (Runner Up at LAFC/NSFC).
[Update: How bad was that speech??]
Lead Actress:
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife” - Will Win
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite” - Should Win, Spoiler, Did Win!!!
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Olivia Colman has been totally unable to campaign (she's off filming the Queen.) Glenn Close will win for body of work, and that's fine by me. She's a treasure and Olivia Colman will hopefully have several more opportunities. (Glenn won the SAG/CCA, Olivia the BAFTA/NSFC/LAFC/Brit Indie, they split the GGs)
Snub: Regina Hall - Support the Girls (won the NYFC, runner up for NSFC, nominated for a Gotham, up for an Indie - really the entire Indie slate is great - Helena Howard! Toni Collette!)
[Update: I cried all the way through her speech. I'm so sorry for Glenn, but I'm so, so thrilled the Favourite wasn't shut out, which I thought it would be halfway through the show.]
Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” - Will Win, Did Win
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman” - Should Win
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” - Spoiler
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
I mean, the award will entirely be for surviving the nightmare of this entire situation. *sigh* He's swept everything and stayed classy while doing it. Yay for a hometown hero; here's hoping he gets to work with fewer disaster people in the future. (Sam Elliott and Richard E. Grant are also delightful people; a win for either of those would tickle me to no end.)
Snub: Steven Yuen - Burning. Won the NSFC/LAFC.
Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” - Will Win, Did Win
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite” - Should Win, Spoiler
Regina has won the NSFC, NBR, LAFC/NYFC/CCA and GG; Rachel the BAFTA (hometown advantage; Regina wasn't nominated). I think The Favourite has been seen by many more folks, which would give Rachel the edge, but: Regina wasn't nominated for the SAGs and Rachel was, which looks like an advantage to Rachel, but she lost to Emily Blunt. They are both deserving - both are phenomenal performances. I think Rachel being a past winner gives Regina the edge (plus, other than Score, these are the two places where Beale Street can be recognized, and I think Barry Jenkins has a lot of goodwill from the Academy body.)
Snub: Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place. Won the SAG. Thomasin McKenzie for being the most deserving.
Director:
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman” - Spoiler
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite” - Should Win
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma” - Will Win, Did Win
Adam McKay, “Vice”
Easy. He's swept everything: the DGA, GG, BAFTA, NSFC, NYFC, CCA, Runner up at LAFC
Snub: Debra Granik: Won the LAFC, up for an Indie. Lynne Ramsay - nominated for a Brit Indie, Indie. Chloe Zhao - Runner up at the NSFC, nominated for an Indie last year (still not sure how that worked). Tamara Jenkins - nominated for an Indie. Marielle Heller. Karyn Kusama. Rungano Nyoni. Jennifer Fox. Josephine Decker. Nicole Holofcener. Nadine Labiki. Sally Potter. Claire Denis. Lucrecia Martel. THERE ARE SO MANY FUCKING OPTIONS.
Animated Feature:
“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!
Yay! Easy and well deserved. Won the PGA, BAFTA, GG, ACE Eddie, Annie, NYFC, CCA, LAFC, and VES. Isle of Dogs won the ADG and Incredibles won the NBR.
https://twitter.com/rsdream12/status/1096912408113831936
Animated Short:
“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi - Will Win, Did Win
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez - Should Win, Spoiler
I've loved Weekends since seeing it in April and it won the Annie, which is the only precursor with any overlap. But Bao is more likely, since it's an actual Pixar film, so the most people saw it (even though it's not nearly as good!)
Adapted Screenplay:
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty - Spoiler
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
This is likely to be close. Can You Ever forgive me got the WGA, Blackkklansman got the BAFTA. I think Spike Lee edges it so that they can finally give Spike Lee an Oscar.
Snub: Leave No Trace, winner of the USC Scripter, which has predicted the Oscar winner the last 8 years running.
Original Screenplay:
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara - Will Win
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader - Should Win
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly - Spoiler, Did Win
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay
I love both The Favourite and First Reformed. I think the Favourite edges out because it got so many more nominations, so I think more Academy folks like it. But! The hardcore fans of First Reformed will be all over its single nomination, so I'd like to think it is close. First Reformed won the CCA/NYFCC/NBR/Gotham and nominated for an Indie, and the Favourite won the BAFTA, was Runner up at the LAFC/NSFC, and nominated for a GG/CCA/Gotham. First Reformed was NOT nominated for a WGA and the Favourite was ineligible. If Green Book sweeps things I'm going to be deeply upset.
[Update: I am deeply upset.]
Cinematography:
“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal - Spoiler
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique
Tricky! Cold War won the guild. But Roma has swept everything else and I think will be recognized by the broader voting body. (Roma has won the BAFTA/NSFC/NYFC/CCA/LAFC. Favourite won the BritIndie.
Snub: Madeline's Madeline - up for an Indie and radically innovative.
Best Documentary Feature:
“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen - Spoiler
Pretty easy! Free Solo is easily the most popular and won the BAFTA, 3 Critics Awards and the ACE Eddie, as well as the audience/production/and Cinematography awards at CinemaEye. (My should is with the caveat that I still need to see Hale County!) RBG is beloved, so there's a possible spoiler.
Snub: Won't You Be My Neighbor - winner of the PGA.
[Update: And Alex and Sanni are still together!]
Best Documentary Short Subject:
“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman - Will win
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi - Spoiler, Did Win!
Hmm - prognosticators seem split on this. I've seen good arguments for both A Night at the Garden (speaking to current racism) and End Game (the type of social awareness doc the Academy loves plus - yay Bay Area!). I think the Academy is still too male to vote for Period. End of Sentence, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong. End Game was on the DocNY shortlist and Night at the Garden was up at CinemaEye. Black Sheep and Lifeboat were up at IDA.
Snub: Zion - the winner of the IDA and on the DocNY Shortlist. My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes - on the DocNY short list and winner of the CinemaEye.
[Update: Yay! What a lovely surprise!]
Best Live Action Short Film:
“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte - Spoiler
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley - Will Win
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv - Did Win
Everything I've seen puts this between Fauve and Marguerite. I literally couldn't watch Fauve, but it was well done, and I haven't seen Maurgerite. If academy voters are as squeamish as I, then I think Marguerite takes it.
Snub: Wale? The only shortlist contender with a prior nomination (BAFTA).
Best Foreign Language Film:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland) - Spoiler
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico) - Will Win, Did Win
Shoplifters (Japan)
Ten times the acclaim and conversations (and money campaigning) as any other others. Only adding in Cold War as a spoiler since it did so surprisingly well in the nominations.
Snub: Burning (South Korea). Runner up at the NSFC, nominated for an Indie/CCA, top 5 for NBR, tied with Shoplifters at the LAFC.
Film Editing:
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman - Spoiler, Did Win
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis - Should Win
“Vice,” Hank Corwin - Will Win
As I said up above; this comes down to Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody. Vice won the BAFTA, Bohemian Rhapsody the ACE Eddie (drama; Favourite took Comedy). Despite the many, many examples of the utter ineptitude of the editing in Bohemian Rhapsody (and the fact that the *only* other thing it was up for was a BAFTA), the narrative there is really that the editor salvaged *something* from Bryan Singer's wreckage and it went on to be immensely popular. So another award for succeeding despite difficult circumstances. And that the final sequence, which sticks in everyone's head, is really well done. Vice is flashy, but I wonder if losing the comedy ACE to the Favourite shows it isn't strong enough.
Snub: Probably Roma, which got 5 nominations.
[Update: UGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH]
Sound Editing:
“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst - Will Win, Did Win
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl - Spoiler
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
A Quiet Place could spoil - it won foley at the Guild and is obviously *so* linked with sound. Bohemian Rhapsody won dialogue/ADR at the guild, and the BAFTA. If Quiet Place had received a Best Picture nomination, I'd say this would shift. (First Man is a possible spoiler in tech categories like sound and VES if people start to feel too sorry for it being overlooked, but... it was overlooked.)
Sound Mixing:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody - Will Win, Did Win
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Easy. It's a musical, it won the CAS for mixing, it won the guild for musical, it won the BAFTA.
Snub (for both): You Were Never Really Here. The sound design is so incredible. And it won the BritIndie.
Production Design:
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler - Spoiler, Should Win, Did Win
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton - Will Win
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
Like Costume - this comes down to The Favourite and Black Panther. Both won at the guild for period/fantasy respectively. Black Panther won the CCA and LAFC, the Favourite won the BAFTA/BritIndie, but hometown advantage. Black Panther has the popularity (plus it created everything from scratch), but the Oscars often go for lush period pieces in this category. (That said, I've swapped these two a bunch.)
Snub: Crazy Rich Asians - guild winner for contemporary.
[Update: Yay! What a great win! What a beautiful speech! I'm always thrilled when a should win upsets. And to have two black women win in non-acting categories! (The second and third EVER.)]
Original Score:
“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard - Spoiler
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson - Did Win
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell - Will Win, Should Win
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
This is between Blackkklansman and If Beale Street. Both have been nominated a lot and are great and vital to their films' tones. Beale St won the LAFC. First Man won most of the precursors, so it's a harder prediction. I think Blackkklansman may have the edge for the best picture nod. But Beale Street is really associated with that score, and Moonlight's score had a lot of goodwill. I've swapped these two like 10 times.
Snub: You Were Never Really Here (again, like sound). Won the BritIndie.
[Update: How surprising! There was a lot of love for the score, but I didn't think it would pull through. Three very deserving scores in contention.]
Original Song:
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA - Should Win
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice - Will Win, Did Win
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
Heh.
Snub: Suspirium.
Makeup and Hair:
Border
Mary Queen of Scots - Spoiler.
Vice - Will Win, Did Win
Border may be the more remarkable achievement, but Vice is more well known. It won the CCA as well as Period and FX at the guild. (Mary took the hair award at the guild, but is better known for its makeup)
Snub: the Favourite won the BAFTA.
Costume Design:
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell - Spoiler
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne
Sandy Powell is the best. She has just been at the top for so, so long. And I adore the Favourite costumes (as well as the Mary Poppins' animated ones). But Black Panther has had a year talking up the tribal origins of the costumes and I don't think the Academy will pass by a chance to have the first black Costume Designer win. They split the guild - Favourite and Black Panther: Period/Fantasy. Black Panther won the CCA, Favourite won the BAFTA/BritIndie.
Snub: Crazy Rich Asians - won the Contemporary Guild Award.
Visual Effects:
“Avengers: Infinity War” - Will Win
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man” - Did Win!
“Ready Player One” - Spoiler
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
Infinity War won the VES. Black Panther won the CCA and BAFTA, which I think means voters are going to go Marvel here, even if Thanos was fairly ridiculous.
Snub: Black Panther
[Update: I'm completely tickled that Infinity War didn't win anything!]
Best Picture:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite - Should Win
Green Book - Spoiler, Did Win
Roma - Will Win
A Star Is Born
Vice
Another tricky year (bless Cheryl for pushing diversity in the voting body, so these become harder to predict!). Roma fans won't put Green Book for #2 (but will they split Black Panther and Blackkkansman?) and Green Book fans won't put Roma as #2. Roma also has an easy out in winning director/foreign, for those who look to spread the accolades around. Roma also missed out on editing, which is usually a good indicator for Best Picture, but the two competing there (Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody (Also: what. I know it's just because of the Live Aid sequence, but good god.)) are not likely Best Picture contenders.
[Update: GOOD GOD.]
Usually it's the PGA winner, which is Green Book. So the question becomes: can it survive the backlash? Is the Academy still enough old white men for it to win? SAG-AFTRA is sometimes a good bellwether because it's such a massive, populist group, and Green Book didn't land an ensemble nod there (Black Panther won). But the "AFTRA" portion doesn't overlap in large part with the voting body of the Academy. I could see Favourite stans listing Roma as 2nd. (I think the Favourite is too quirky to pull out a win, but it did enjoy broad support with 10 nominations.) And Roma did win the BAFTA, which has a fair bit of overlap in voting members.
In the end, I think Roma edges it, with Green Book and Black Panther as spoilers.
[Update: THE ACADEMY IS STILL OLD AND WHITE ENOUGH]
Here's where things will likely land for total awards [Ed: updated]:
Black Panther - Costumes, Production Design
BlacKkKlansman - Adapted Screenplay
Bohemian Rhapsody - Actor, Sound Editing & Mixing, Editing
The Favourite -
Green Book - Supporting actor, Original Screenplay, Picture
Roma -
A Star Is Born - Song
Vice -
As always, the most interesting films get the screenplay awards.
Snub: Anything directed by a woman.
Update: UGHHHHHHHHHH FOREVER
Lead Actor:
Christian Bale, “Vice” - Spoiler
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” - Will Win, Did Win
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
I mean, the award will entirely be for surviving the nightmare of this entire situation. I have next to no opinion on a should win. I like Christian Bale's work a lot, but he has won before. Willem Dafoe is great and it would be nice to see him recognized, especially so soon after The Florida Project. Rami has basically swept: SAG/BAFTA/GG-D, Bale won the comedy GG.
Snub: Ethan Hawke (won the NSFC/Gotham, hopefully about to win the Indie Spirit in the next hour.) Ben Foster for being incredible in Leave No Trace (Runner Up at LAFC/NSFC).
[Update: How bad was that speech??]
Lead Actress:
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife” - Will Win
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite” - Should Win, Spoiler, Did Win!!!
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Olivia Colman has been totally unable to campaign (she's off filming the Queen.) Glenn Close will win for body of work, and that's fine by me. She's a treasure and Olivia Colman will hopefully have several more opportunities. (Glenn won the SAG/CCA, Olivia the BAFTA/NSFC/LAFC/Brit Indie, they split the GGs)
Snub: Regina Hall - Support the Girls (won the NYFC, runner up for NSFC, nominated for a Gotham, up for an Indie - really the entire Indie slate is great - Helena Howard! Toni Collette!)
[Update: I cried all the way through her speech. I'm so sorry for Glenn, but I'm so, so thrilled the Favourite wasn't shut out, which I thought it would be halfway through the show.]
Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” - Will Win, Did Win
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman” - Should Win
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” - Spoiler
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
I mean, the award will entirely be for surviving the nightmare of this entire situation. *sigh* He's swept everything and stayed classy while doing it. Yay for a hometown hero; here's hoping he gets to work with fewer disaster people in the future. (Sam Elliott and Richard E. Grant are also delightful people; a win for either of those would tickle me to no end.)
Snub: Steven Yuen - Burning. Won the NSFC/LAFC.
Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” - Will Win, Did Win
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite” - Should Win, Spoiler
Regina has won the NSFC, NBR, LAFC/NYFC/CCA and GG; Rachel the BAFTA (hometown advantage; Regina wasn't nominated). I think The Favourite has been seen by many more folks, which would give Rachel the edge, but: Regina wasn't nominated for the SAGs and Rachel was, which looks like an advantage to Rachel, but she lost to Emily Blunt. They are both deserving - both are phenomenal performances. I think Rachel being a past winner gives Regina the edge (plus, other than Score, these are the two places where Beale Street can be recognized, and I think Barry Jenkins has a lot of goodwill from the Academy body.)
Snub: Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place. Won the SAG. Thomasin McKenzie for being the most deserving.
Director:
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman” - Spoiler
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite” - Should Win
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma” - Will Win, Did Win
Adam McKay, “Vice”
Easy. He's swept everything: the DGA, GG, BAFTA, NSFC, NYFC, CCA, Runner up at LAFC
Snub: Debra Granik: Won the LAFC, up for an Indie. Lynne Ramsay - nominated for a Brit Indie, Indie. Chloe Zhao - Runner up at the NSFC, nominated for an Indie last year (still not sure how that worked). Tamara Jenkins - nominated for an Indie. Marielle Heller. Karyn Kusama. Rungano Nyoni. Jennifer Fox. Josephine Decker. Nicole Holofcener. Nadine Labiki. Sally Potter. Claire Denis. Lucrecia Martel. THERE ARE SO MANY FUCKING OPTIONS.
Animated Feature:
“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!
Yay! Easy and well deserved. Won the PGA, BAFTA, GG, ACE Eddie, Annie, NYFC, CCA, LAFC, and VES. Isle of Dogs won the ADG and Incredibles won the NBR.
https://twitter.com/rsdream12/status/1096912408113831936
Animated Short:
“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi - Will Win, Did Win
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez - Should Win, Spoiler
I've loved Weekends since seeing it in April and it won the Annie, which is the only precursor with any overlap. But Bao is more likely, since it's an actual Pixar film, so the most people saw it (even though it's not nearly as good!)
Adapted Screenplay:
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty - Spoiler
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
This is likely to be close. Can You Ever forgive me got the WGA, Blackkklansman got the BAFTA. I think Spike Lee edges it so that they can finally give Spike Lee an Oscar.
Snub: Leave No Trace, winner of the USC Scripter, which has predicted the Oscar winner the last 8 years running.
Original Screenplay:
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara - Will Win
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader - Should Win
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly - Spoiler, Did Win
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay
I love both The Favourite and First Reformed. I think the Favourite edges out because it got so many more nominations, so I think more Academy folks like it. But! The hardcore fans of First Reformed will be all over its single nomination, so I'd like to think it is close. First Reformed won the CCA/NYFCC/NBR/Gotham and nominated for an Indie, and the Favourite won the BAFTA, was Runner up at the LAFC/NSFC, and nominated for a GG/CCA/Gotham. First Reformed was NOT nominated for a WGA and the Favourite was ineligible. If Green Book sweeps things I'm going to be deeply upset.
[Update: I am deeply upset.]
Cinematography:
“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal - Spoiler
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique
Tricky! Cold War won the guild. But Roma has swept everything else and I think will be recognized by the broader voting body. (Roma has won the BAFTA/NSFC/NYFC/CCA/LAFC. Favourite won the BritIndie.
Snub: Madeline's Madeline - up for an Indie and radically innovative.
Best Documentary Feature:
“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen - Spoiler
Pretty easy! Free Solo is easily the most popular and won the BAFTA, 3 Critics Awards and the ACE Eddie, as well as the audience/production/and Cinematography awards at CinemaEye. (My should is with the caveat that I still need to see Hale County!) RBG is beloved, so there's a possible spoiler.
Snub: Won't You Be My Neighbor - winner of the PGA.
[Update: And Alex and Sanni are still together!]
Best Documentary Short Subject:
“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman - Will win
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi - Spoiler, Did Win!
Hmm - prognosticators seem split on this. I've seen good arguments for both A Night at the Garden (speaking to current racism) and End Game (the type of social awareness doc the Academy loves plus - yay Bay Area!). I think the Academy is still too male to vote for Period. End of Sentence, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong. End Game was on the DocNY shortlist and Night at the Garden was up at CinemaEye. Black Sheep and Lifeboat were up at IDA.
Snub: Zion - the winner of the IDA and on the DocNY Shortlist. My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes - on the DocNY short list and winner of the CinemaEye.
[Update: Yay! What a lovely surprise!]
Best Live Action Short Film:
“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte - Spoiler
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley - Will Win
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv - Did Win
Everything I've seen puts this between Fauve and Marguerite. I literally couldn't watch Fauve, but it was well done, and I haven't seen Maurgerite. If academy voters are as squeamish as I, then I think Marguerite takes it.
Snub: Wale? The only shortlist contender with a prior nomination (BAFTA).
Best Foreign Language Film:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland) - Spoiler
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico) - Will Win, Did Win
Shoplifters (Japan)
Ten times the acclaim and conversations (and money campaigning) as any other others. Only adding in Cold War as a spoiler since it did so surprisingly well in the nominations.
Snub: Burning (South Korea). Runner up at the NSFC, nominated for an Indie/CCA, top 5 for NBR, tied with Shoplifters at the LAFC.
Film Editing:
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman - Spoiler, Did Win
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis - Should Win
“Vice,” Hank Corwin - Will Win
As I said up above; this comes down to Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody. Vice won the BAFTA, Bohemian Rhapsody the ACE Eddie (drama; Favourite took Comedy). Despite the many, many examples of the utter ineptitude of the editing in Bohemian Rhapsody (and the fact that the *only* other thing it was up for was a BAFTA), the narrative there is really that the editor salvaged *something* from Bryan Singer's wreckage and it went on to be immensely popular. So another award for succeeding despite difficult circumstances. And that the final sequence, which sticks in everyone's head, is really well done. Vice is flashy, but I wonder if losing the comedy ACE to the Favourite shows it isn't strong enough.
Snub: Probably Roma, which got 5 nominations.
[Update: UGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH]
Sound Editing:
“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst - Will Win, Did Win
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl - Spoiler
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
A Quiet Place could spoil - it won foley at the Guild and is obviously *so* linked with sound. Bohemian Rhapsody won dialogue/ADR at the guild, and the BAFTA. If Quiet Place had received a Best Picture nomination, I'd say this would shift. (First Man is a possible spoiler in tech categories like sound and VES if people start to feel too sorry for it being overlooked, but... it was overlooked.)
Sound Mixing:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody - Will Win, Did Win
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Easy. It's a musical, it won the CAS for mixing, it won the guild for musical, it won the BAFTA.
Snub (for both): You Were Never Really Here. The sound design is so incredible. And it won the BritIndie.
Production Design:
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler - Spoiler, Should Win, Did Win
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton - Will Win
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
Like Costume - this comes down to The Favourite and Black Panther. Both won at the guild for period/fantasy respectively. Black Panther won the CCA and LAFC, the Favourite won the BAFTA/BritIndie, but hometown advantage. Black Panther has the popularity (plus it created everything from scratch), but the Oscars often go for lush period pieces in this category. (That said, I've swapped these two a bunch.)
Snub: Crazy Rich Asians - guild winner for contemporary.
[Update: Yay! What a great win! What a beautiful speech! I'm always thrilled when a should win upsets. And to have two black women win in non-acting categories! (The second and third EVER.)]
Original Score:
“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard - Spoiler
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson - Did Win
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell - Will Win, Should Win
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
This is between Blackkklansman and If Beale Street. Both have been nominated a lot and are great and vital to their films' tones. Beale St won the LAFC. First Man won most of the precursors, so it's a harder prediction. I think Blackkklansman may have the edge for the best picture nod. But Beale Street is really associated with that score, and Moonlight's score had a lot of goodwill. I've swapped these two like 10 times.
Snub: You Were Never Really Here (again, like sound). Won the BritIndie.
[Update: How surprising! There was a lot of love for the score, but I didn't think it would pull through. Three very deserving scores in contention.]
Original Song:
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA - Should Win
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice - Will Win, Did Win
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
Heh.
Snub: Suspirium.
Makeup and Hair:
Border
Mary Queen of Scots - Spoiler.
Vice - Will Win, Did Win
Border may be the more remarkable achievement, but Vice is more well known. It won the CCA as well as Period and FX at the guild. (Mary took the hair award at the guild, but is better known for its makeup)
Snub: the Favourite won the BAFTA.
Costume Design:
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell - Spoiler
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne
Sandy Powell is the best. She has just been at the top for so, so long. And I adore the Favourite costumes (as well as the Mary Poppins' animated ones). But Black Panther has had a year talking up the tribal origins of the costumes and I don't think the Academy will pass by a chance to have the first black Costume Designer win. They split the guild - Favourite and Black Panther: Period/Fantasy. Black Panther won the CCA, Favourite won the BAFTA/BritIndie.
Snub: Crazy Rich Asians - won the Contemporary Guild Award.
Visual Effects:
“Avengers: Infinity War” - Will Win
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man” - Did Win!
“Ready Player One” - Spoiler
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
Infinity War won the VES. Black Panther won the CCA and BAFTA, which I think means voters are going to go Marvel here, even if Thanos was fairly ridiculous.
Snub: Black Panther
[Update: I'm completely tickled that Infinity War didn't win anything!]
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