Edit: Updated with the noms bolded. This year is WEIRD.
88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers. Boo - I got worse. More later - but quick impressions:
No Once Upon a Time for Editing?! Whoa. That doesn't bode well. But thankfully 1917 didn't get one either, and those two are probably the ones to beat alongside Joker.
Yay Parasite over Joker for Production Design!
Noooooo No Glasgow for Best Song. Sniffles
Yaaaaaaaaaaas The Lighthouse for Cinematography!!!
NO FROZEN FOR BEST ANIMATED 😲
The left-field ones: Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell (yay! Although boo for Hustlers), Edge of Democracy, Corpus Christie, Joker for costumes, Maleficent for Makeup, Toy Story 4 for song, Ad Astra for Mixing (???), 1917 for Sound Editing, Walk Run Cha-Cha.
The categories I got entirely: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (not a hard year...), Best Adapted Screenplay,
This shortened season is messing with my head. I've done this a couple of times now - here's 2018 (I got 91/121 outright, and 113/121 counting spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 if you count spoilers). Let's go for 92 this year?
Best Picture
The most sure:
1. Once Upon a Time
2. Parasite
3. The Irishman
4. JoJo Rabbit
These have the SAG/PGA/DGA noms, which are the most important precursors.
Pretty Sure:
5. 1917 (on the upswing, lots of BAFTA and craft noms, WGA, no SAGs)
6. Ford v. Ferrari (editing nods are good, plus craft noms and three BAFTAs, SAG actor, but not ensemble)
7. Joker (crafts, BAFTAs, WGA, SAG actor, but not ensemble)
Maybe:
8. Little Women (5 BAFTAs, WGA, no SAGs)
9. Marriage Story (3 SAGs, WGA, some indies, 5 BAFTAs)
If 10:
10. Knives Out (PGA)
Spoilers
Bombshell (SAG ensemble)
Dolemite (GG, NBR, Won CCA - comedy)
Uncut Gems (indie, CCA, NBR)
Two Popes (BAFTA brit nom, GG)
Rocketman (GG)
The Farewell (indie, NBR - indie)
I wish A Hidden Life were being discussed. At all.
Best Director
Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
Martin Scorsese - Irishman
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time
Taika Waititi - JoJo
Sam Mendes - 1917
Spoilers:
Todd Phillips - Joker (please no, please no, please no - BAFTA, GG)
Greta Gerwig - Little Women (CCA, NSFC)
Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story (CCA)
The Safdie Brothers - Uncut Gems (CCA)
Lulu Wang - The Farewell (no precursors, but campaigning hard)
I just don't have any faith in a woman getting nominated
Best Editing
Irishman (Thelma! ACE Eddie, BAFTA, CCA))
Ford v. Ferrari (Ace Eddie, BAFTA, CCA)
JoJo Rabbit (Ace Eddie - Comedy, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (Ace Eddie - Comedy, BAFTA)
Parasite (Ace Eddie, CCA)
Spoilers
Joker (ACE Eddie, BAFTA (please no, please no, please no))
1917 - I... can't with an edit nom here. But it just won the CCA. It has no other nominations, but someone was just mentioning they expected an editing nod, which I found so bizarre.
Knives Out (Ace Eddie - comedy)
Marriage Story (Ace Eddie)
The Farewell (Ace Eddie - comedy)
Uncut Gems (CCA)
Best Actress
Renee Zellweger - Judy
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Lupita Nyongo - Us
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Spoiler:
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Awkwafina - The Farewell
Alfre Woodard - Clemency
Cynthia got the SAG nom, but Saoirse got the BAFTA (so did Jessie Buckley, but Wild Rose wasn't seen as much here.) Mary Kay Place got a few nods, but I can't see an upset here. I'm hoping Lupita stays in, so that the Oscars don't go all white, like the BAFTAs.
Personally, I'm THRILLED Karen Allen is up for an Indie for Colewell, which a beautiful performance. And I can't speak to Portrait of a Lady on Fire because of their STUPID STUPID release strategy.
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker (Imma just pretend this is for You Were Never Really Here)
Taron Egerton - Rocketman
Christian Bale - Ford v. Ferrari
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Going with the SAG picks here, largely because Christian Bale is demonstrably beloved by the academy (also I really loved this performance, so I'm *hoping* he stays in)
Spoilers
Jonathan Pryce - the Two Popes (BAFTA, GG nods)
Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory (GG, NSFC, NYFC, LAFC nods)
Robert DeNiro - Irishman (CCA nod)
Eddie Murphy - Dolemite (GG, CCA nods)
Adam Sandler (Gotham, Indie, NSFC, NBR nods)
Personally, if 1917 ends up over-performing, I'd love to see George Mackay here - I thought he was great.
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern - Marriage Story (the one to beat)
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Scarlett Johansson - JoJo
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Not guessed: Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell
Spoilers
Margot Robbie - Once Upon (BAFTA)
Nicole Kidman - Bombshell (SAG, but no others)
I think Florence has been so beloved in the role, that she'll upset despite no SAG nod. She got the BAFTA, as well as a few other nods. And she's having a big year (see: Vogue cover this month). I'd LOVE to see Zhao Shuzhen in here for the Farewell.
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time (he's gonna win)
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Tom Hanks - It's a Beautiful Day
Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes (BAFTA, GG)
Spoiler
Jamie Foxx - Just Mercy (SAG, but nothing else)
Song Kang Ho - Parasite (NSFC)
Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse (CCA, beloved)
Personally I'd love to see Jonathan Majors or Matt Damon make it in.
Screenplay - Original
Booksmart (WGA, BAFTA)
Knives Out (WGA, BAFTA)
Marriage Story (WGA, BAFTA, GG)
Once Upon a time (WGA ineligible, BAFTA, won GG, NSFC runner-up)
Parasite (WGA, BAFTA, NSFC winner, GG)
Spoilers
1917 (WGA)
The Farewell
Uncut Gems
Screenplay - Adapted
So - usually the USC scripter is the best predictor in this category, until last year when Leave No Trace was so RUDELY shut out. But still.
Irishman (WGA, BAFTA, GG, Scripter)
JoJo (WGA, BAFTA, Scripter)
Little Women (WGA, BAFTA, NSFC runner-up, Scripter)
Two Popes (BAFTA, GG, Scripter)
Joker (WGA, BAFTA)
Spoilers
Dark Waters (Scripter)
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (WGA)
Animated
Frozen 2 (10 nods; 8 Annie noms)
How to Train Your Dragon (8 nods, 6 Annie)
Missing Link (6 nods, 8 Annie)
Toy Story 4 (11 nods, 6 Annie)
I Lost My Body (7 overall nods, 6 annie - but the big one was for best indie; CCA, also the Oscars have recently often had an adult animation that makes the cut) (And it got an ACE Eddie nom.)
Spoilers
Abominable (6 nods, 4 Annie))
Klaus (BAFTA; 3 nods, 7 Annie)
Shaun the Sheep: Farmaggedon (BAFTA, but... home town pride)
Weathering With You (4 Annies)
Documentary
American Factory (PGA, DGA, BAFTA, won IDA- directing, ACE Eddie, WOn CinemaEye)
The Cave (PGA, DGA)
Honeyland (PGA, DGA)
Apollo 11 (PGA, BAFTA, Ace Eddie)
For Sama (PGA, BAFTA, won IDA)
Not Guessed: Edge of Democracy
Spoilers
One Child Nation (PGA, DGA)
Advocate (PGA)
The Great Hack (BAFTA)
Maiden (DGA)
Midnight Family (won the IDA for Editing)
I wish Aquarela was getting more love.
Foreign
So... this is bizarrely tricky, because Parasite and Pain & Glory are pretty sure things, but then pretty much all the precursors have been nominating things that didn't make the shortlist, so.... ???
Parasite (GG, BAFTA, Indie, NBR)
Pain & Glory
Les Miserables (CCA, Indie, GG)
Atlantics (CCA, NBR)
Beanpole. Why not. I hear good things, and Russia has a good track record.
Not guessed: Corpus Christie ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Spoilers
Honeyland (unless this gets a bump from the overlap with documentary?)
The Painted Bird
I literally have heard nothing about the three eastern European ones, so I can't imagine them getting in. Whither Monos? Invisible Life? Not to mention all those that didn't qualify for their country noms: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Transit, the Farewell, Ash is Purest White, etc. etc.
Cinematography
1917.
Oh, there will be others? Fine:
Ford v. Ferrari (guild, BAFTA)
Irishman (guild, BAFTA)
Joker (guild, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (guild)
Spoilers
The Lighthouse (guild - spotlight nom, Indie, BAFTA). I'd love for this to get in.
Midsommar (Indie)
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (won NSFC, NYFC, LAFC)/Atlantics (won NSFC) - both Calire Mathon
Little Women (NSFC runner-up)
Parasite (no precursors, but if it over-performs)
Monos and Honey Boy also got spotlight noms from the guild. Monos is beautifully shot.
Costumes
Dolemite is my Name (Guild - P, won CCA)
JoJo (Guild - P, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (Guild - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Little Women (CCA, BAFTA, lots of press)
Rocketman (Guild - P, CCA)
Not guessed: Joker. Obviously wildly overperforming with the most nods
Spoilers
Downton Abbey (guild - P, CCA)
The Irishman (CCA, BAFTA)
Judy (BAFTA, Brit Indie)
Knives Out (Guild - C, sweater!)
Hustlers (Guild - C)
As with production design, the nods tend to go toward the guild period nominations, rather than the contemporary or fantasy noms.
Makeup/Hair
So there are gonna be 5 noms this go around ?!?!?!
Bombshell (Won the guild for contemporary makeup, contemporary hair, and fx - prosthetics done by Kazu Hiro, who won last year, won the CCA, BAFTA nom)
Dolemite (Guild nom - period makeup, period hair, CCA)
Joker - (Won the guild for period makeup, nominated for contemporary hair (?!), CCA nom, BAFTA nom)
Rocketman (3 guild noms, CCA, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (2 guild noms, CCA)
Not guessed: Maleficent
Spoilers
Judy (CCA, BAFTA)
Downton Abbey (Won guild - period hair, nom - period makeup)
1917 (BAFTA)
Little Women and Maleficent are the only others on the shortlist, but neither has any precursors)
Production Design
Once Upon a Time (won CCA, BAFTA, ADG - P)
1917 (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
JoJo Rabbit (ADG - P, BAFTA)
Irishman (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Joker (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Spoilers
Ford v. Ferrari (ADG - P)
Parasite (ADG - C, CCA, the best house. But Oscars often want more locales)
Downton Abbey (CCA)
Knives Out (ADG - C)
Generally period noms are worth more than contemporary or fantasy.
Visual Effects
Alita
Avengers Endgame
Gemini Man
Star Wars
1917
Spoilers
Terminator Dark Fate
Irishman
Lion King
Cats made the shortlist, y'all. Don't take the Oscars too seriously.
Score
Joker (Gudnadottir; BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Little Women (Desplat; BAFTA, CCA, GG)
1917 (Thomas Newman; BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman; CCA, GG)
Motherless Brooklyn (Pemberton; GG)
Spoilers
Us (Abels; CCA)
Star Wars (Williams)
JoJo (Giacchino)
I'd really love to see Mica Levi's Monos. I also LOVE that The Dø made the shortlist for I Lost My Body, and it would be thrilling for an animated film to get in (they won the LAFC). Nicholas Britell is (deservedly!) having a moment, but I think The King is too derided to score here.
Song
Glasgow - Wild Rose (Won CCA (it was a tie). I'm rooting for this one - it was the best part of the film, plus: Mary Steenburgen! Jessie Buckley!)
(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again - Rocketman (Won GG & CCA; Elton John)
Into the Unknown - Frozen (GG, CCA nom; Let it Go team - plus, the chance for Adele Dazeem to sing again!)
Spirit - Lion King (GG, CCA nom; Beyonce)
Stand Up - Harriet (GG, CCA nom; Cynthia Erivo)
Not Guessed: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away - Toy Story 4
Spoilers
Speechless - Aladdin. It's Menkin with Pasek & Paul, soo..... also CCA nom
I'm Standing with You - Breakthrough (CCA nom, Diane Warren)
A Glass of Soju - Parasite (Bong!)
Daily Battles - Motherless Brooklyn (Wynton Marsalis)
Never Too Late - Lion King (Elton John)
Sound - Mixing
Ford v. Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
Irishman
Not guessed: Ad Astra
The above are the CAS guid noms
Spoilers
1917
Star Wars
I hesitate to even say it, but mixing often skews toward musicals so... we could theoretically see a Cats nom. But I'm guessing any tech category will be tarred by the rest of the disaster
Sound - Editing
Joker - 3 guild noms
Ford v. Ferrari - 2 guild noms
Once Upon a Time - 3 guild noms
Avengers Endgame - 2 guild noms
Rocketman - 2 guild noms
Not Guessed: 1917
Spoilers
JoJo Rabbit - 2 guild noms
Star wars - guild nom: foley
Irishman - guild nom: dialogue
Short Doc
In the Absence (Cinemaeye, IDA nom, CCA, DocNYC)
Ghosts of Sugarland (Cinemaeye, Doc NYC)
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you're a girl) (IDA winner, DocNYC, BAFTA)
St. Louis Superman (Cinemaeye, IDA shortlist, DocNYC)
Stay Close (Cinemaeye, DocNYC)
Not Guessed: Walk Run Cha-Cha (literally the only one without a single precursor)
Spoilers
The Nightcrawlers (IDA nom, DocNYC)
Life Overtakes Me (Cinemaeye)
After Maria (IDA nom)
Fire in Paradise (DocNYC)
Short Live
Brotherhood
The Christmas Gift (EFA winner)
Sometimes I think About Dying
Saria
Refugee
Spoilers
Little Hands
Miller & Son
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors' Window
A Sister
??? Basically there are never any precursors here, as opposed to docs.
Short Animated
Hair Love
He Can't Live Without Cosmos
Kitbull
Sister
Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days (Annie nom)
Spoilers:
Hors Piste (this was widely available and could make it, but... I disliked it and the first We Can't Live Without Cosmos was so good, I'm hoping the second follows) [Ed: awww. No Cosmos.]
Dcera
Memorable
Mind my Mind
Physics of Sorrow
88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers. Boo - I got worse. More later - but quick impressions:
No Once Upon a Time for Editing?! Whoa. That doesn't bode well. But thankfully 1917 didn't get one either, and those two are probably the ones to beat alongside Joker.
Yay Parasite over Joker for Production Design!
Noooooo No Glasgow for Best Song. Sniffles
Yaaaaaaaaaaas The Lighthouse for Cinematography!!!
NO FROZEN FOR BEST ANIMATED 😲
The left-field ones: Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell (yay! Although boo for Hustlers), Edge of Democracy, Corpus Christie, Joker for costumes, Maleficent for Makeup, Toy Story 4 for song, Ad Astra for Mixing (???), 1917 for Sound Editing, Walk Run Cha-Cha.
The categories I got entirely: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (not a hard year...), Best Adapted Screenplay,
This shortened season is messing with my head. I've done this a couple of times now - here's 2018 (I got 91/121 outright, and 113/121 counting spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 if you count spoilers). Let's go for 92 this year?
Best Picture
1. Once Upon a Time
2. Parasite
3. The Irishman
4. JoJo Rabbit
These have the SAG/PGA/DGA noms, which are the most important precursors.
Pretty Sure:
5. 1917 (on the upswing, lots of BAFTA and craft noms, WGA, no SAGs)
6. Ford v. Ferrari (editing nods are good, plus craft noms and three BAFTAs, SAG actor, but not ensemble)
7. Joker (crafts, BAFTAs, WGA, SAG actor, but not ensemble)
Maybe:
8. Little Women (5 BAFTAs, WGA, no SAGs)
9. Marriage Story (3 SAGs, WGA, some indies, 5 BAFTAs)
If 10:
10. Knives Out (PGA)
Spoilers
Bombshell (SAG ensemble)
Dolemite (GG, NBR, Won CCA - comedy)
Uncut Gems (indie, CCA, NBR)
Two Popes (BAFTA brit nom, GG)
Rocketman (GG)
The Farewell (indie, NBR - indie)
I wish A Hidden Life were being discussed. At all.
Best Director
Martin Scorsese - Irishman
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time
Taika Waititi - JoJo
Sam Mendes - 1917
Spoilers:
Todd Phillips - Joker (please no, please no, please no - BAFTA, GG)
Greta Gerwig - Little Women (CCA, NSFC)
Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story (CCA)
The Safdie Brothers - Uncut Gems (CCA)
Lulu Wang - The Farewell (no precursors, but campaigning hard)
I just don't have any faith in a woman getting nominated
Best Editing
Ford v. Ferrari (Ace Eddie, BAFTA, CCA)
JoJo Rabbit (Ace Eddie - Comedy, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (Ace Eddie - Comedy, BAFTA)
Parasite (Ace Eddie, CCA)
Spoilers
Joker (ACE Eddie, BAFTA (please no, please no, please no))
1917 - I... can't with an edit nom here. But it just won the CCA. It has no other nominations, but someone was just mentioning they expected an editing nod, which I found so bizarre.
Knives Out (Ace Eddie - comedy)
Marriage Story (Ace Eddie)
The Farewell (Ace Eddie - comedy)
Uncut Gems (CCA)
Best Actress
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Lupita Nyongo - Us
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Spoiler:
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Awkwafina - The Farewell
Alfre Woodard - Clemency
Cynthia got the SAG nom, but Saoirse got the BAFTA (so did Jessie Buckley, but Wild Rose wasn't seen as much here.) Mary Kay Place got a few nods, but I can't see an upset here. I'm hoping Lupita stays in, so that the Oscars don't go all white, like the BAFTAs.
Personally, I'm THRILLED Karen Allen is up for an Indie for Colewell, which a beautiful performance. And I can't speak to Portrait of a Lady on Fire because of their STUPID STUPID release strategy.
Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker (Imma just pretend this is for You Were Never Really Here)
Taron Egerton - Rocketman
Christian Bale - Ford v. Ferrari
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Going with the SAG picks here, largely because Christian Bale is demonstrably beloved by the academy (also I really loved this performance, so I'm *hoping* he stays in)
Spoilers
Jonathan Pryce - the Two Popes (BAFTA, GG nods)
Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory (GG, NSFC, NYFC, LAFC nods)
Robert DeNiro - Irishman (CCA nod)
Eddie Murphy - Dolemite (GG, CCA nods)
Adam Sandler (Gotham, Indie, NSFC, NBR nods)
Personally, if 1917 ends up over-performing, I'd love to see George Mackay here - I thought he was great.
Best Supporting Actress
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Scarlett Johansson - JoJo
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Not guessed: Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell
Spoilers
Margot Robbie - Once Upon (BAFTA)
Nicole Kidman - Bombshell (SAG, but no others)
I think Florence has been so beloved in the role, that she'll upset despite no SAG nod. She got the BAFTA, as well as a few other nods. And she's having a big year (see: Vogue cover this month). I'd LOVE to see Zhao Shuzhen in here for the Farewell.
Best Supporting Actor
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Tom Hanks - It's a Beautiful Day
Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes (BAFTA, GG)
Spoiler
Jamie Foxx - Just Mercy (SAG, but nothing else)
Song Kang Ho - Parasite (NSFC)
Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse (CCA, beloved)
Personally I'd love to see Jonathan Majors or Matt Damon make it in.
Screenplay - Original
Knives Out (WGA, BAFTA)
Marriage Story (WGA, BAFTA, GG)
Once Upon a time (WGA ineligible, BAFTA, won GG, NSFC runner-up)
Parasite (WGA, BAFTA, NSFC winner, GG)
Spoilers
1917 (WGA)
The Farewell
Uncut Gems
Screenplay - Adapted
Irishman (WGA, BAFTA, GG, Scripter)
JoJo (WGA, BAFTA, Scripter)
Little Women (WGA, BAFTA, NSFC runner-up, Scripter)
Two Popes (BAFTA, GG, Scripter)
Joker (WGA, BAFTA)
Spoilers
Dark Waters (Scripter)
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (WGA)
Animated
How to Train Your Dragon (8 nods, 6 Annie)
Missing Link (6 nods, 8 Annie)
Toy Story 4 (11 nods, 6 Annie)
I Lost My Body (7 overall nods, 6 annie - but the big one was for best indie; CCA, also the Oscars have recently often had an adult animation that makes the cut) (And it got an ACE Eddie nom.)
Spoilers
Abominable (6 nods, 4 Annie))
Klaus (BAFTA; 3 nods, 7 Annie)
Shaun the Sheep: Farmaggedon (BAFTA, but... home town pride)
Weathering With You (4 Annies)
Documentary
The Cave (PGA, DGA)
Honeyland (PGA, DGA)
Apollo 11 (PGA, BAFTA, Ace Eddie)
For Sama (PGA, BAFTA, won IDA)
Not Guessed: Edge of Democracy
Spoilers
One Child Nation (PGA, DGA)
Advocate (PGA)
The Great Hack (BAFTA)
Maiden (DGA)
Midnight Family (won the IDA for Editing)
I wish Aquarela was getting more love.
Foreign
Parasite (GG, BAFTA, Indie, NBR)
Pain & Glory
Les Miserables (CCA, Indie, GG)
Atlantics (CCA, NBR)
Beanpole. Why not. I hear good things, and Russia has a good track record.
Not guessed: Corpus Christie ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Spoilers
Honeyland (unless this gets a bump from the overlap with documentary?)
The Painted Bird
I literally have heard nothing about the three eastern European ones, so I can't imagine them getting in. Whither Monos? Invisible Life? Not to mention all those that didn't qualify for their country noms: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Transit, the Farewell, Ash is Purest White, etc. etc.
Cinematography
Oh, there will be others? Fine:
Ford v. Ferrari (guild, BAFTA)
Irishman (guild, BAFTA)
Joker (guild, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (guild)
Spoilers
The Lighthouse (guild - spotlight nom, Indie, BAFTA). I'd love for this to get in.
Midsommar (Indie)
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (won NSFC, NYFC, LAFC)/Atlantics (won NSFC) - both Calire Mathon
Little Women (NSFC runner-up)
Parasite (no precursors, but if it over-performs)
Monos and Honey Boy also got spotlight noms from the guild. Monos is beautifully shot.
Costumes
JoJo (Guild - P, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (Guild - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Little Women (CCA, BAFTA, lots of press)
Rocketman (Guild - P, CCA)
Not guessed: Joker. Obviously wildly overperforming with the most nods
Spoilers
Downton Abbey (guild - P, CCA)
The Irishman (CCA, BAFTA)
Judy (BAFTA, Brit Indie)
Knives Out (Guild - C, sweater!)
Hustlers (Guild - C)
As with production design, the nods tend to go toward the guild period nominations, rather than the contemporary or fantasy noms.
Makeup/Hair
Bombshell (Won the guild for contemporary makeup, contemporary hair, and fx - prosthetics done by Kazu Hiro, who won last year, won the CCA, BAFTA nom)
Dolemite (Guild nom - period makeup, period hair, CCA)
Joker - (Won the guild for period makeup, nominated for contemporary hair (?!), CCA nom, BAFTA nom)
Rocketman (3 guild noms, CCA, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (2 guild noms, CCA)
Not guessed: Maleficent
Spoilers
Judy (CCA, BAFTA)
Downton Abbey (Won guild - period hair, nom - period makeup)
1917 (BAFTA)
Little Women and Maleficent are the only others on the shortlist, but neither has any precursors)
Production Design
1917 (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
JoJo Rabbit (ADG - P, BAFTA)
Irishman (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Joker (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Spoilers
Ford v. Ferrari (ADG - P)
Parasite (ADG - C, CCA, the best house. But Oscars often want more locales)
Downton Abbey (CCA)
Knives Out (ADG - C)
Generally period noms are worth more than contemporary or fantasy.
Visual Effects
Avengers Endgame
Gemini Man
Star Wars
1917
Spoilers
Terminator Dark Fate
Irishman
Lion King
Cats made the shortlist, y'all. Don't take the Oscars too seriously.
Score
Little Women (Desplat; BAFTA, CCA, GG)
1917 (Thomas Newman; BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman; CCA, GG)
Motherless Brooklyn (Pemberton; GG)
Spoilers
Us (Abels; CCA)
Star Wars (Williams)
JoJo (Giacchino)
I'd really love to see Mica Levi's Monos. I also LOVE that The Dø made the shortlist for I Lost My Body, and it would be thrilling for an animated film to get in (they won the LAFC). Nicholas Britell is (deservedly!) having a moment, but I think The King is too derided to score here.
Song
Glasgow - Wild Rose (Won CCA (it was a tie). I'm rooting for this one - it was the best part of the film, plus: Mary Steenburgen! Jessie Buckley!)
(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again - Rocketman (Won GG & CCA; Elton John)
Into the Unknown - Frozen (GG, CCA nom; Let it Go team - plus, the chance for Adele Dazeem to sing again!)
Spirit - Lion King (GG, CCA nom; Beyonce)
Stand Up - Harriet (GG, CCA nom; Cynthia Erivo)
Not Guessed: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away - Toy Story 4
Spoilers
Speechless - Aladdin. It's Menkin with Pasek & Paul, soo..... also CCA nom
I'm Standing with You - Breakthrough (CCA nom, Diane Warren)
A Glass of Soju - Parasite (Bong!)
Daily Battles - Motherless Brooklyn (Wynton Marsalis)
Never Too Late - Lion King (Elton John)
Sound - Mixing
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
Irishman
Not guessed: Ad Astra
The above are the CAS guid noms
Spoilers
1917
Star Wars
I hesitate to even say it, but mixing often skews toward musicals so... we could theoretically see a Cats nom. But I'm guessing any tech category will be tarred by the rest of the disaster
Sound - Editing
Ford v. Ferrari - 2 guild noms
Once Upon a Time - 3 guild noms
Avengers Endgame - 2 guild noms
Rocketman - 2 guild noms
Not Guessed: 1917
Spoilers
JoJo Rabbit - 2 guild noms
Star wars - guild nom: foley
Irishman - guild nom: dialogue
Short Doc
Ghosts of Sugarland (Cinemaeye, Doc NYC)
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you're a girl) (IDA winner, DocNYC, BAFTA)
St. Louis Superman (Cinemaeye, IDA shortlist, DocNYC)
Stay Close (Cinemaeye, DocNYC)
Not Guessed: Walk Run Cha-Cha (literally the only one without a single precursor)
Spoilers
The Nightcrawlers (IDA nom, DocNYC)
Life Overtakes Me (Cinemaeye)
After Maria (IDA nom)
Fire in Paradise (DocNYC)
Short Live
The Christmas Gift (EFA winner)
Sometimes I think About Dying
Saria
Refugee
Spoilers
Little Hands
Miller & Son
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors' Window
A Sister
??? Basically there are never any precursors here, as opposed to docs.
Short Animated
He Can't Live Without Cosmos
Kitbull
Sister
Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days (Annie nom)
Spoilers:
Hors Piste (this was widely available and could make it, but... I disliked it and the first We Can't Live Without Cosmos was so good, I'm hoping the second follows) [Ed: awww. No Cosmos.]
Dcera
Memorable
Mind my Mind
Physics of Sorrow
No comments:
Post a Comment