I need to preface this; in what was maybe the best year for films in 20 years, we are likely to have an absolutely terrible group of oscar nominees. Also, for every Weinstein or Spacey, there's an overcorrection to continue supporting a Singer or Farrelly. Depressing, but true.
Last year, I did pretty well, with 90/122 outright, or 118/122 if you count spoilers. Let's see if we can do better this year...
[Edit 1/22: Actual picks in bold. 91/121 outright, and 113/121 counting spoilers. So better outright, but a more fun/unexpected year overall. Perfect categories: Best Picture (in order!), original screenplay, and production design. Left field non-spoiler nominees; Marina de Tavira, Pawel Pawlikowski, Ballad of Buster Scruggs for Screenplay, Green Book for Editing (also: what.), Never Look Away for Cinematography, Border for makeup (yay!), One Small Step and Late Afternoon for animated short.]
Best Picture
A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Roma
The Favourite
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
Green Book
Up to 10 nominees:
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
If Beale Street Could Talk
Spoilers
First Man
Crazy Rich Asians
Mary Poppins Returns
First Reformed
Hereditary
Ballad of Buster Scruggs (SUPER unlikely, but it was in the NBR top 10, and the Coens are often well received by the Academy)
Ughhhhhh what a year. The Favourite is the only lock I really love. (And, my same caveat as always; 117 films were mentioned as "best picture" or "top 25" by various voting bodies. The Oscar nominees look like they are going to be particularly far from critical consensus or my own tastes this year (please see this, this, or this for some alternates. Personally, I'm giving myself till the 31st to catch up on a couple more things before making my own 2018 picks. (After that, we get into Noir City, Modern Cinema, Mostly British, and Fritz Lang at BAMPFA, and I'm not going to have time to catch up on much more.))) I'd love to say Spider-Man or Mission Impossible, since the trend this year seems to *really* be box office (which is why Crazy Rich Asians and Mary Poppins are in for spoilers) and those two are really great films on top of being successful.
[Ed: Perfectly as predicted. Ughhhhhhh.]
Best Actress
Badger.
Olivia Colman, The FavouriteLady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Glenn Close, The Wife
Those 4 are locks. Normally I'd look to the SAGs for my last choice, but will the Oscars really go for Mary Poppins?? It seems unlikely to me, but since things are terrible, I'll put it in for my last choice:
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins
Spoilers:
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma. I would doubt this one (she's been up for almost no precursors aside from the CCAs), but apparently Netflix is spending ALL THE MONEY, so I don't feel comfortable counting her out.
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Viola Davis, Widows (I think she only got the BAFTA nom for Steve McQueen being British (and, you know being VIOLA DAVIS), but she is loved by the academy.)
Sadly, no Charlize Theron, even though I thought she was quite good in Tully. Really sad: no Regina Hall from Support the Girls.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book. UGH
Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlackKkKlansman
Spoilers:
I'll put Ethan Hawke for First Reformed here, since a lot of folks are pinning hopes there, and he seems like the biggest maybe (trading for John David Washington, who I think has the edge, given I expect BlacKkKlansman to pick up several other nods).
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
I mean, I suppose Robert Redford (Old Man & The Gun). I doubt Ryan Gosling and John C. Reilly, but those are probably the only others in play.
Personally, I'd want Ben Foster in Leave No Trace, but 2018 does not give good things.
Best Supporting Actress
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Spoilers
Claire Foy, First Man
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Generally good. I don't think Thomasin McKenzie should have been submitted for supporting, but I do think she's brilliant. I also thought Elizabeth Debicki was great in Widows.
[I'm somewhat surprised - money talks, I guess. That seems mean - I actually think she was great in Roma, and I'm pleased she's in here, but she wasn't up for a single precursor.
Best Supporting Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Spoilers
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Steven Yuen, Burning
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
If only: Hugh Grant, Paddington 2. Or Josh Hamilton in Eighth Grade.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Peter Farrelly, Green Book UGH
Adam McKay, Vice
Spoilers
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
NOMINATE DEBRA GRANIK YOU COWARDS
(Or Zhao, Ramsay, Heller, Kuasama, Jenkins, Etc etc)
[YAY NO PETER FARRELLY. BOO NO WOMEN. YAY YORGOS! I was considering putting Pawel Pawlikowski in after his BAFTA nom, but I thought.... nooo.... there's no way the Oscars will nominated two foreign directors in one year. And then they did! (The last time two foreign language directors were nominated was 1976; Lina Wertmuller & Ingmar Bergman.) Also on the Bradley Cooper front - the man was still nominated for 3 Oscars this morning. He was hardly snubbed.]
Best Screenplay - Original
Green Book UGH UGH
Vice
First Reformed
The Favourite
Spoilers
A Quiet Place
Eighth Grade
Sorry to Bother You
Screenplays are trickier this year! A couple of big ineligibilities for the WGAs.
Best Screenplay - Adapted
BlacKkKlansman
A Star is Born
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace (I have to have hope. And it WAS nominated for a USC Scripter, which is a pretty good bellwether)
Spoilers
Black Panther
Death of Stalin
Ballad of Buster Scruggs [totally unexpected (0 precursors), but as I mentioned under best picture, the Coens are fairly beloved.]
Best Animated Film
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
The Grinch
Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
Spoilers
Mirai
Best Documentary
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won't You Be My Neighbor
Minding the Gap
Spoilers
Hale County This Morning This Evening
Shirkers
Of Fathers and Sons
YAY! A GOOD CATEGORY!
[WHOA. It's like Jane all over again! Won't You Be My Neighbor won the PGA, CCA, was up for the DGA, ACE Eddie, and had noms from CinemaEye, AWFJ, Indies, Gothams, DocNY, and NBR top 5. It was not up for the IDA, and I wonder if that was the forecaster. Also yay Hale County! I haven't seen it yet, but it is at the top of my catch-up list]
Best Foreign Film
Roma (Mexico)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Burning (South Korea)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Spoilers
Birds of Passage (Colombia)
The Guilty (Denmark)
Never Look Away (Germany)
[Whoa no Burning.]
Best Editing
A Star is Born
Roma
Vice
The Favourite
First Man (I don't see it getting Best Picture, so I'll be surprised to see it here, but it was nominated by both the ACE Eddies and BAFTAs, and won the CCAs)
Spoilers
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody UGH
Green Book. [That... does not bode well for anything.]
Best Cinematography
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Cold War
Spoilers
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody UGH BAFTAS WHAT
Never Look Away. I have NEVER HEARD OF THIS. Oh.... wait. Yes I have. It's the German foreign film. I was not expecting a non-Roma foreign film in the craft categories.
Best Costumes
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Mary Poppins Returns
Bohemian Rhapsody (ARE YOU KIDDING ME)
Spoilers
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mamma Mia
Crazy Rich Asians
BlacKkKlansman
I will say I am chuffed the guild recognized Oceans 8, because Cate Blanchett's wardrobe was the best part of that film.
Best Makeup
...what. You thought I'd go with a picture of Dick Cheney?
ViceBlack Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody UGH
Spoilers
Mary Queen of Scots
Suspiria
I'd REALLY love a Suspiria nomination, but I'd be happy for Black Panther to get it over Bohemian Rhapsody. I don't think Stan & Ollie will get in, since Vice will (and does the padding/real person/aging thing). And you'd think I'd remember by now why makeup only gets 3 nominees, but I don't.
Border! [I'm so pleased! This seemed super deserving, but unlikely to make it in. It is also in my catchup list.]
Best Production Design
Mary Poppins
The Favourite
Roma
First Man
Spoilers
Crazy Rich Asians
Fantastic Beasts
If Bohemian Rhapsody really sweeps things, then it could get in here as well.
Best Visual Effects
Avengers Infinity War
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Black Panther
First Man
Spoilers
Welcome to Marwen
Christopher Robin
Mary Poppins Returns
Best Score
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins
Black Panther
First Man
Spoilers
A Quiet Place
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
I'm going to keep my fingers crossed for an (unlikely) Annihilation nom
[WHOA NO JUSTIN HURWITZ. I mean, I'm personally glad, because I thought La La Land was a travesty, but that seemed like a lock!]
Best Song
Shallow, A Star is Born.
Oh, I'm sorry. Other songs will be nominated? Okay then:
All the Stars, Black Panther
Girl in the Movies, Dumplin'
Trip a Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins (It is BIZARRE to me that this and The Place Where the Lost Things Go were submitted over A Cover is Not the Book which was WAY better. (Although, I can't tell if the rap was mixed poorly, or just didn't project well in the Castro's not quite Dolby speaker system.))
When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings, Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Spoilers
Revelation, Boy Erased
I'll Fight, RBG
The Place Where the Lost Things Go, Mary Poppins
I would LOVE to see Suspirium here, but it seems very unlikely.
Best Sound Editing
Roma
A Quiet Place
First Man
Black Panther
A Star is Born
Spoilers
Mary Poppins
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mission Impossible Fallout
YOU WERE NEVER REALLY HERE SHOULD BE A CONTENDER FOR THIS IF NOTHING ELSE. BUT REALLY IT SHOULD BE A CONTENDER FOR EVERYTHING.
Best Sound Mixing
A Quiet Place
First Man
Black Panther
A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
Spoilers
Mary Poppins
Roma
Avengers
Mission Impossible Fallout
Best Short Documentary
My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes
A Night at the Garden
Zion (I actually quite like this one (it's the one in the shortlist I've seen before (I only just found the link above)), but it did win the IDA and end up on the DocNY shortlist. You can go watch it now!)
Lifeboat
Black Sheep
Spoilers
Women of the Gulag
End Game
Period. End of Sentence.
[Noooo. I liked Zion.]
Best Live Action Short
Icare
Caroline
Detainment
Marguerite
Skin
Spoilers
Mother
Wale
Fauve
[Aww man! I had Fauve and Mother in category and then second guessed myself.]
Best Animated Short
Weekends (I LOVE this one. Go watch it!)
Lost & Found (There was another short this year (last?) called Lost Property Office, that I was TOTALLY confusing for this one until today. Not to mention Lou, from last year, which was Pixar's short about Lost & Found items.)
Bao
Bilby (I really want to see this one. Bilbys!)
Animal Behavior
Spoilers
Pepe le Morse/Grandpa Walrus (this is up for the Annies)
Age of Sail
Bird Karma
(I don't think these are likely to be up, but you can also watch the short-listed One Small Step and Late Afternoon)
[YAY WEEKENDS. Also!! I wonder if those last two being available online made a difference???]
General Thoughts:
How many craft nominations do we think First Man is going to pick up without a Best Picture nod? And how few for Green Book? [VERY FEW for First Man! Seriously; who did Damien Chazelle piss off? (It's 4 for the record.) And none for Green Book, but that editing nod is out of left field and bad.]
I have not checked Gold Derby, and don't have the time tonight, but I do wonder how my picks stack up.
I really need to see First Reformed. [Still true.]
[As always, I love Deadline's scorecards. (Disney's 17 noms is kind of scary, but I'm pleased to see Fox Searchlight and Annapurna doing well.). Here's the breakdown by film. I'm SO THRILLED the Favourite leads. Not thrilled with Bohemian Rhapsody or Green Book (obvs.) This doesn't really change my catch-up list (First Reformed, Burning, Lean on Pete all still have priority), but I might add Never Look Away to the list.... And I suppose I'm going to have to see Vice.
The Favourite — 10
Roma — 10
A Star Is Born — 8
Vice — 8
Black Panther — 7
BlacKkKlansman — 6
Bohemian Rhapsody — 5
Green Book – 5
First Man — 4
Mary Poppins Returns — 4
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs — 3
Can You Ever Forgive Me? — 3
Cold War — 3
If Beale Street Could Talk — 3
Isle of Dogs — 2
Mary Queen of Scots — 2
Never Look Away — 2
RBG — 2]
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