Well, the nominations went shockingly well, so let's think good thoughts here.
Past years: 2024: 15 (double yikes) 2023: 18, 2022: 16 (yikes), 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21?
Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another - will win, should win (afaik)
Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners - spoiler
Train Dreams
Look - I still need to see 5 of the films, but... I loved One Battle. It has also won all the precursors, save the SAGs. The actors are, historically the largest branch and voted Sinners, but I think the European contingent will go with the political resonance of One Battle. Sinners does have momentum, and I wonder if the BAFTAs swayed voting at all.
Overall, I think the noms will work out as:
Bugonia - 0
F1 - 0
Frankenstein - costume, production design
Hamnet - actress
Marty Supreme - 0 inshallah
One Battle After Another - picture, director, adapted screenplay, editing, cinematography
Secret Agent - international
Sentimental Value - supporting actor
Sinners - actor, supporting actress, original screenplay, casting, makeup, score
Train Dreams - 0 - that seems sad.
It really feels like a two-horse race, with some craft nods to Frankenstein.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley - will win
Rose Byrne - spoiler
Kate Hudson
Renate Reinsve
Emma Stone
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet
Leonardo DiCaprio - spoiler
Ethan Hawke
Michael B Jordan - will win
Wagner Moura
This one is tricky! BAFTAs went Robert Aramayo, Timothee won the CCA, Leo NSFC, GG split Timothee and Leo, Michael B Jordan won the SAG. I think Timothee is so annoying, folks will go Michael B Jordan, especially any late votes. (I think it's one of Leo's best performances, and Oscars don't tend to go comedy, and Michael B. Jordan was incredible.)
All that said, I could see vote splitting happening, and that ballet-dissing sonofabitch slipping in.
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Amy Madigan
Wunmi Mosaku - will win
Teyana Taylor - spoiler
Another tough one. Amy got the SAG and CCA, Wunmi the BAFTA and Gotham, Teyana the NSFC and GG. I think Sentimental Value splits it, and I'll go BAFTA over SAG again, but this is close. I think the SAGs also like to reward working actors when they get a break, whereas the larger body is likely to go with One Battle en masse (and Teyana's part is a CLASSIC supporting role.)
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro
Jacob Elordi
Delroy Lindo
Sean Penn - spoiler
Stellan Skarsgard - will win
Benicio won all the early critics picks and the NSFC, Jacob the CCA, Stellan the GG and Sean Penn the SAG and BAFTA. Smart money is on Sean Penn, and it's a flashy part, but I really wouldn't be surprised if Stellan got it for body of work from the European contingent. I wonder if he's more likeable? And if it ends up being a vote for Sentimental Value. I've gone back and forth on this one the most, but am landing Stellan, mostly because Sean Penn has won twice.
Director
Chloe Zhao
Josh Safdie
Paul Thomas Anderson - will win
Joachim Trier
Ryan Coogler - spoiler
Finally, an easy one.
Also - hey. I just heard why the Safdies split up and what the fuck. Why isn't that bigger news
Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident - spoiler
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners - will win
I'm still mad Sorry, Baby didn't make it in.
Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle - will win
Train Dreams
I genuinely don't think this needs a spoiler. It even won the scripter.
Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle - spoilers
Secret Agent
Sinners - will win
New category! New category! Guild and CCA went sinners, so I'm going off that for the vibes.
Animated
Arco
Elio
Kpop - will win
Little Amelie
Zootopia - spoiler
Documentary
The Alabama Solution
Come and See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin - will win
The Perfect Neighbor - spoiler
PGA/DGA went to non-noms, I feel like anti-Russia is usually the smart bet. Perfect Neighbor also won the CCA and was the NSFC runner up. The pundits are saying Perfect Neighbor, which I would not be mad about - I wish it had picked up an editing nod, too.
International
The Secret Agent - will win
It Was Just an Accident
Sentimental Value - spoiler
Sirat
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Secret Agnet won the GG, CCA, NSFC, Sentimental Value the BAFTA. It Was Just an Accident also has a good shot. I think folks might vote Stellan and Secret Agent to spread the love.
Editing
Sentimental Value
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle - will win
Sinners - spoiler
Thrilled Sentimental Value got in here. F1 was flashy and got the CCA, but it's really between Battle (BAFTA, ACE-C) and Sinners (ACE-D). I think the car chase pips it?
Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
Sinners - spoiler
One Battle - will win
Train Dreams
Train Dreams wins in my heart. Imma be mad if Sinners takes it, much as we need more women to win this one. (I would love to see the Brazilian bloc rally around Train Dreams here.)
Costumes
Avatar
Frankenstein - will win
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners - spoiler
Makeup
Frankenstein - spoiler
Kokuho
Sinners - will win
Smashing Machine
Ugly Stepsister
Weirdly, the guild went Sinners, and I wouldn't be surprised if the momentum carries the day here.
Production Design
Frankenstein - will win
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle - spoiler
Sinners
VFX
Avatar - will win
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
Lost Bus
Sinners - spoiler
Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle - spoiler
Sinners - will win
Song
Dear Me (Diane Warren)
Golden (KPOP) - will win
I Lied to You (Sinners) - spoiler
Sweet Dreams of Joy (Viva Verdi)
Train Dreams
I would be so, so happy if I lied to you took it. I hate Golden so much. (WHY didn't they go for This is What it Sounds Like?)
Sound
F1 - spoiler
Frankenstein
One Battle
Sinners
Sirat - will win
A little tricky! Sirat won the MPSE and EFA, F1 the CAS, BAFTA, and CCA. (Sinners and Frankenstein picked up the MPSEs for dialogue/foley.) Based purely on sound, I think it's F1 (and the smart money), but I wonder if people throw support behind Sirat here, or if Sinners picks up part of a sweep.
Short-Doc
All the Empty Rooms - will win
The Devil is Busy
perfectly a strangeness - spoiler
Armed Only with a Camera
Children No More
All the Empty Rooms won the CinemaEye, the ACE Eddie, got an IDA special mention, a CCA nom, and Short of the Week top 5. perfectly a strangeness got a CinemaEye nom, IDA special mention and SOTW top 5. (I'd kind of love for perfectly to win.)
Short-Live
Butcher's Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen's Period Drama
The Singers - will win
Two People Exchanging Saliva - spoiler
Short of the Week put the last 2 in their top 5 for the year, so I'm kinda pulling for two people, but playing it safe with Netflix for my pick.
Short -Ani
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls - spoiler
Retirement Plan - will win
The Tree Sisters
Again - SOTW put the last two in the top 5. The Annies nominated Girl who Cried Pearls.
