2020 Oscars Aftermath

As always, hoping for that elusive 22+. Harder now with the expansion of the voting bloc - as we saw come through in the nominations with The Father. 

[Update: 17/23, 22/23 with spoilers - Frances being the only one I had picked for being in 3rd place who won. (And hurray! I'm so thrilled - she deserved it!) But having no wildcard wins really showcases that the longer season made this a pretty boring oscars. Shorter campaign season please!]

Best Picture
The Father - spoiler
Judas and the Black Messiah 
Mank 
Minari 
Nomadland - Will win, should win, did win
Promising Young Woman 
Sound of Metal 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 

This was such a great win, completely and totally undercut by NOT BEING THE LAST AWARD GIVEN OUT. SODERBERGH!!!

Final likely counts for each:
The Father - adapted screenplay, [actor!]
Judas and the Black Messiah - supporting actor, [song!]
Mank - [cinematography], production design
Minari - supporting actress
Nomadland - picture, director, cinematography, [actress!]
Promising Young Woman - original screenplay
Sound of Metal - sound (duh), editing
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - nothing?

 
Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) - spoiler.
David Fincher (Mank) 
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) 
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) - will win, should win, did win
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) 

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) - will win
Andra Day (The United States v. Billie Holiday) 
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) 
Frances McDormand (Nomadland) - should win, did win YAAAYYY!!!!
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) - spoiler

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) - should win
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) - will win
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) - spoiler, did win
Gary Oldman (Mank) 
Steven Yeun (Minari) 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) 
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) 
Olivia Colman (The Father) - spoiler
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) 
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) - will win, did win

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) 
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) - will win, did win
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) 
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) - spoiler, should win
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
 
Best Film Editing
The Father 
Nomadland - should win
Promising Young Woman 
Sound of Metal - Will win, did win
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - spoiler

Best International Feature Film
Another Round (Denmark) - will win, did win
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania) 
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) - spoiler

2020 Oscar Predictions

It's that time again!

It's obviously an odd year. I'm glad they now have an online screening room for voters. I hope they eventually start making more voting categories/nominee voting limited to those that have seen a majority or all films in a category. I'm sorry that, although all the films are small - given the lack of film viewership and production, several truly independent films weren't able to break through, such as First Cow and Never Rarely Sometimes Always. 

As always, hoping for that elusive 22+. Harder now with the expansion of the voting bloc - as we saw come through in the nominations with The Father. 

Past years:

2019: 19 (Bong!)

2018: 20

2017: 15 (Moonlight!)

2016: 17

2015: 21

2014: 20

2013: 18

2012: 17

2011: 17

2010: 17

2009: 20/21? 

And as always, will win/should win/spoilers, as well as some snubs. Although many more ideas on those here. 

Best Picture

The Father - spoiler

Judas and the Black Messiah 

Mank 

Minari 

Nomadland - Will win, should win

Promising Young Woman 

Sound of Metal 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 

Snub: First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Proxima

I'm still really surprised that in a year so focused on racial justice, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey, and One Night in Miami all had legitimate chances to be included here and weren't. I didn't love Ma Rainey or One Night (I thought One Night was okay with some great acting), but to me, that places them easily alongside Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman or Mank. I wonder if two of those would have been included if this were a year of a mandatory 10 nominees (as next year will go back to)?

As for what we do have, the editing nominees are Nomadland, Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman and The Father, so that's probably our real field (Sorry, Minari). Nomadland is the clear frontrunner, having won the PGA, BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, Indie, and GG - drama, as well as the NSFC. It's broadly liked - hitting in the top 10 on most end of year lists. The only major award it didn't win (and wasn't eligible for) was the SAG, which went to Chicago 7. I'm rather split on a spoiler - because actors are the largest voting bloc, so normally I'd go with Chicago 7, but the Father is so well regarded in Europe which, we saw from the nominations, really pushed for it. And I'm not 100% convinced the Oscars won't go with the old hollywood love for Mank, given that it leads with 10 nominations... but with no editing... I'm just giving it by a nose to the Father, which - I haven't seen because I really dislike films about dementia - but I trust Seventh Row's judgement that it is excellent. And, just occasionally, that matters at the Oscars. 

I did think it was interesting that one director pointed out that in a year of stage to film adaptations, the Father was the one that really worked, while One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey did not. (Can't comment on the Father, but I do agree with that assessment of the other two.)

Although I'm not over the First Cow snub (IMMA WEAR MY T-SHIRT), Nomadland is otherwise my favorite film of the year, and it's such a rare delight to think the deserving best film may actually win. 

Final likely counts for each:

The Father - adapted screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah - supporting actor

Mank - cinematography, production design

Minari - supporting actress

Nomadland - picture, director, cinematography

Promising Young Woman - original screenplay

Sound of Metal - sound (duh), editing

The Trial of the Chicago 7 - editing, nothing?

So I think Chicago 7 may be the only thing to get blanked? (I changed my mind on two categories at the last moment...) But it could very well take editing. (Although I hope Nomadland takes adapted screenplay, editing, and cinematography (and actress) as well.) And, I could be wildly discounting what seems to be one of the more traditional Oscar bait films and, given the SAG, I am maybe setting myself up for failure. 

Best Director

Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) - spoiler.

David Fincher (Mank) 

Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) 

Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) - will win, should win

Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) 

Snub: Kelly Reichardt - First Cow, Eliza Hittman - Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Alice Winocour - Proxima. Also I was SO chuffed to see Shannon Murphy land a BAFTA nod for Babyteeth, which I really loved. And it wasn't eligible, but Patricia Rozema - Mouthpiece.

Chloe has won the DGA, GG, BAFTA, NSFC, Indie, LAFC, NYFC and CCA. It's her. And well deserved, too - I love her.

(I'm only throwing Thomas in as a spoiler because Another Round is great. Promising Young Woman is Not For Me (and I'm afraid all the praise probably won't highlight all its problems to Emerald), but like with Darius Marder, I'm interested to see what she does next. That said, there were SO MANY truly great, established women directors who should have been in here instead. Or over David Fincher (and, as a Fincher fan, it pains me to say that.) Even Shannon Murphy, who had a better debt film.)