Monday, March 3, 2014

Oscars Aftermath

Well, I won the pool at the party I went to, so that was nice. Overall, I got 20/24, which is pretty good. Not my best, but not my worst. Aside from Jorn Tromolto, I thought the show was fine. Not great, not bad. Beige.

So the actual winners:
Best picture
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Will Win: Gravity and 12 Years tied at the PGAs, which is crazy. American Hustle got the SAG ensemble, but I think it's probably out. I think 12 Years will win out. Maybe.

Best director
Should Win: I love Steve McQueen so much. But Gravity was such an achievement, I think Alfonso Cuaron.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Best actor
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor or Leonardo DiCaprio (Haven't seen McConaughey)
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey. He's on such a hot streak, and the Oscars will probably want to reward leaving romcoms for indies. And True Detective has been on everyone's lips during voting.
HOW GODAWFUL WAS THAT SPEECH, THOUGH?! I can't wait to catch up on last night's True Detective to wash the taste out of my mouth. 

Best actress
Should Win: Haven't seen Blue Jasmine, but I've heard that. Otherwise Amy Adams.
Will Win: Cate Blanchett. Although I think Amy Adams actually has a bit of a shot.

Best supporting actor
Should Win: I haven't seen Leto, but he's annoyed me to no end this season. So Michael Fassbender.
Will Win: Jared Leto.
IT'S A PROBLEM WHEN JARED LETO GIVES A BETTER SPEECH THAN YOU, MCCONAUGHEY. Rambling and stupidly political though it may have been.

Best supporting actress
Should Win: Lupita Nyongo
Will Win: Lupita Nyongo (This category is pretty much a dead heat, though with JLaw)
Lupita!!!! I hope she manages to avoid the Oscar curse. 

Best original screenplay
Should Win: Her
Will Win: I think American Hustle's swell of support might land it here. But it REALLY SHOULDN'T. The performances were so much better than the script. But if Academy voters want to give David O. Russell something, they may vote judiciously. Her is my 2nd choice. I both really hope it wins, and will kick myself vigorously for going with my cynical instincts if it does. 
Happily kicking myself. SO GLAD that Spike Jonze got it. 

Best adapted screenplay
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave (although apparently some writers really dislike John Ridley from the strike, in which case Philomena.)
I think I read that John Ridley was the 2nd black writer to win. Ever. Also, I sooo want to know what went down between him and Steve McQueen. 

Best animated feature
Should Win: ? Probably The Wind Rises
Will Win: Experts are saying Frozen, but The Wind Rises has won EVERYTHING in the lead up. But... I don't think Miyazaki as beloved by the Academy as the general population. And voters may have been more likely to see Frozen. I'm going Frozen. Against my better judgement.

Best foreign feature
Should Win: The Great Beauty/The Hunt/Broken Circle Breakdown
Will Win: The Great Beauty (The Hunt as spoiler)

Best music (original song)
Should Win: Let It Go
Will Win: Let It Go

Best music (original score)
Should Win: Philomena
Will Win: Gravity. It was over-emphasized, but that meant it stood out to voter's ears.
Wah wah. Alex Ebert shoulda been up.

Best cinematography
Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
Will Win: Gravity
 I mentioned this a bit in my JWD awards, but I adore Emmanuel Lubezki. I'm really really glad he finally earned a well-deserved Oscar. I'm a tiny bit sad that it was for Gravity.

Best costume design
Should Win: I'm pretty torn between Gatsby and Hustle. I'll give Gatsby the edge for this dress, which I covet beyond all measure.
Will Win: Gatsby.

Best documentary feature
Should Win: The Act of Killing
Will Win: 20 Feet from Stardom. This film has been CAMPAIGNING. The Act of Killing has won most of the precursors, but I think it is just too disturbing for the Academy.
This one hurts. It was great to see Darlene Love up there, but... The Act of Killing was really up there with 12 Years as the best film of the year. It had at least 26 wins and nominations to 20 Feet's 8 in the run-up.

Best film editing
Should Win: Rush. But probably Gravity
Will Win: Gravity. Captain Phillips has its only real shot as runner-up here.

Best makeup and hairstyling
Should Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club

Best production design
Should Win: Gatsby
Will Win: Gravity. Gatsby, Gravity, and Her won the guild awards (Period, Fantasy, Contemporary) and the Oscars tend to like period films best, so Gatsby could get it. But I think Gravity may sweep the tech categories.
I was somewhat surprised on this one. I should have gone with my gut, and Oscar's tendency to reward period pieces in this category.

Best visual effects
Should Win: Gravity
Will Win: Gravity

Best sound mixing
Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
Will Win: Gravity

Best sound editing
Should Win: Gravity/All is Lost
Will Win: Gravity

Best short film, live action
Should Win: Avant Que De Tout Perdre
Will Win: The Voorman Problem
(Did win: Helium)
I underestimated the Academy's love of mawkishness at my own peril. They do sometimes go edgier in the shorts category, but not this time. The French one was robbed. It was far and away the best of the bunch.

Best short film, animated
Should Win: Possessions
Will Win: Get a Horse
(Did win: Mr. Hublot)
SO glad Get a Horse didn't win it. It was a cute concept that could have been executed better. Mr. Hublot was fine. Really, it's a tragedy the Missing Scarf wasn't up. That was easily the best of the year. 

Best documentary short
Should Win: ?
Will Win: The Lady in Number 6

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