2022 Oscars Aftermath

Update 3/12: Let's re-use Lydia here. As expected, the two best nominated films walked away with nothing. I did very badly! My 2nd worst year, and not in a fun, 'Moonlight the worthy film upsets' way. 16/23. BUT! 21/23 with spoilers, so only Production Design was a real 'upset' and I had that in third place, alongside Brendan for Actor (and once Elvis lost makeup and costume, it became clear Austin wasn't going to win, either.)

[Whoops! Forgot to post the links to past years: 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21? I currently match most Oscar pundits on 17/23 categories, so that'll probably be what I get for 2022. (WEIRDLY, the ESPN contest has WILDLY different picks than most award sites, so I'm curious to see it that populism translates in what wins, or if I have a chance of doing particularly well there because I'm picking more of the Oscar-watchers picks.)]

Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin - Spoiler
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Will Win, Did win
The Fabelmans
Tár - Should Win
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once - Will Win, Did win

Tár - Should win

Top Gun: Maverick - spoiler

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett (Tár) - Spoiler, Should Win
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will win, Did win

Best Actor
Austin Butler (Elvis) - Spoiler
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) - Will Win, Should Win
Brendan Fraser (The Whale) - Did win
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)

Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) - Spoiler, should win
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will Win, Did win
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) - Spoiler
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will Win, should win, Did win

Best Director

Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will Win, Did win

Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) - Spoiler

Todd Field (Tár) - Should Win

Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell - spoiler

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - Rian Johnson

Living - Kazuo Ishiguro

Top Gun: Maverick - Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks

Women Talking - Sarah Polley - Will Win, Did win

♥️

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh - Spoiler

Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert - Will Win, Did win

The Fabelmans - Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner

Tár - Todd Field - Should Win

Triangle of Sadness - Ruben Östlund

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio - Will Win, Did win

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On - Should Win, Spoiler

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

Best International Film

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) - Will Win, Did win

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) - spoiler

Close (Belgium)

EO (Poland)

The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes - Should win

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed - spoiler

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny - Will Win, Did win

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front - Will Win, Did win

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Elvis - Spoiler, Should Win

Empire of Light

Tár

Le sigh. 

Oh hey, I had forgotten about this analysis of the nominees: https://twitter.com/SadHillDevan/status/1627772160008945664

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front - Will Win, Did win

Babylon - Spoiler (ugh ugh ugh)

The Banshees of Inisherin - should win

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

HAHAHAHAHAHA

Go listen to Bones & All. 

Best Original Song

"Applause" from Tell It Like a Woman (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)

"Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick (Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop)

"Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler) - spoiler

"Naatu Naatu" from RRR (Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose) - Will Win, Should Win, Did win

"This Is a Life" from Everything Everywhere All at Once (Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne)

This was 100% the best part of the whole shebang. 

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front - Spoiler

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Elvis

Top Gun: Maverick - Will Win, should win, Did win

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water - Will Win, Did win

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick - should win, spoiler

Best Costume Design

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - spoiler, Did win

Elvis - Will win

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front - for what? dirt?

The Batman - should win? who knows

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis - Will Win

The Whale - Spoiler, Did win

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front - again, dirt? (It's late and I'm feeling salty.) Did win *side-eye*

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon - Will Win

Elvis - Spoiler

The Fabelmans

Best Documentary Short Subject

The Elephant Whisperers - Spoiler, Did win

Haulout - Will Win, Should Win

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Stranger at the Gate

Best Animated Short

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse - Spoiler, Did win

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks - Will Win, Should Win

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Best Live-Action Short

An Irish Goodbye - Spoiler, Did win

Ivalu

Le Pupille - Will Win, Should Win

Night Ride

The Red Suitcase

And how I think all the Best Picture nominees will shake out:

All Quiet on the Western Front - Cinematography, Foreign, Score, Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water - VFX
The Banshees of Inisherin - Actor (but v. possibly not)
Elvis - Costume, Makeup
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Directing, Editing, Original Screenplay
The Fabelmans
Tár - Booooo
Top Gun: Maverick - Sound
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking - Adapted Screenplay

I stand by what I said about it being boring to have two films sweep.