Oscar Predictions 2022

This is a weird year: 1) I have not stayed on top of the race, 2) I'm expecting my favorite film to walk away with nothing and 3) I'm giving myself till the end of the month to finish catching up on 2022 films, so some of the 'shouldas' might have looked different in a couple weeks. And yet, despite all this, I care very strongly about some of these categories! (short doc! Cinematography always but especially when a woman has a real shot! OBVIOUSLY SONG.)

[Ed update 3/12: whoops! Forgot to post the links to past years: 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21? I currently match most Oscar pundits on 17/23 categories, so that'll probably be what I get for 2022. (WEIRDLY, the ESPN contest has WILDLY different picks than most award sites, so I'm curious to see it that populism translates in what wins, or if I have a chance of doing particularly well there because I'm picking more of the Oscar-watchers picks.)]

Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin - Spoiler
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Will Win
The Fabelmans
Tár - Should Win
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

Shoulda Been a Contender: RRR, Bones & All, Decision to Leave, 

Weirdly, gold derby has Banshees in 2nd place, which I did not foresee, so I'm putting it as spoiler. I thought Tár would have that. I do think EEAAO has the momentum to sweep a lot. In fact, I think MOST awards will be going to EEAAO and All Quiet (which I have 0 interest in seeing because every critic I respect says it's not good and the original is better and I love the original). I'm pleased something weird is going to win a lot, but I didn't love it, and it makes for a kind of boring lead up. All Quiet won the BAFTA, and the European contingent is strong, but EEAAO won the PGA and SAG. 

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once - Will Win

Tár - Should win

Top Gun: Maverick - spoiler

Shoulda Been a Contender: Moonage Daydream, Bones & All, Marcel, the Menu

Oscars go for flashy. 

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett (Tár) - Spoiler, Should Win
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will win

Shoulda Been a Contender: Tilda Swinton - Eternal Daughter (Memoria was technically eligible last year, right?)

I mean - there's a chance Cate takes this. She got the BAFTA, CCA, GG, and NSFC. Michelle got the SAG, and actors are the largest voting bloc. I want it to be Cate, so Tár gets something, but I want it to be Michelle, since she hasn't won before. Of the two, Cate was the better performance, imho. 

Best Actor
Austin Butler (Elvis) - Spoiler
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) - Will Win, Should Win
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)

Shoulda Been a Contender: Park Hae-il - Decision to Leave, Rory Kinnear - Men

I can't tell if the European contingent is going to split on the Europeans. Currently the bookies are saying Austin Butler (who won the BAFTA and GG), with Brendan Fraser following (who won the SAG - largest voting bloc - and CCA. Colin also won a GG and NSFC, so he's trailing, but I think there's a narrative about him having the best body of work (Bill Nighy, sadly, doesn't have a chance here), plus he was acclaimed in After Yang this year as well. So I'm thinking maybe the Euros vote for him. But if they split with Bill and Paul, then it'll be one of the others. (But see - since there is some split there, maybe Austin and Brendan will split and Colin will win??) The smart money is probably Austin or Brendan, and I'm probably just hoping Colin takes it. But I think this one is less settled than the others.  

Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) - Spoiler, should win
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will Win
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Shoulda Been a Contender: Nina Hoss - Tár (maybe Jessie Buckley - Women Talking?)

This is another one that seems so weird to me. The bookies say Angela Bassett, but she hasn't won as much (GG/CCA). It seems like wishful thinking. Kerry has the Euros (and the BAFTA & NSFC), Jamie has the SAG, and I'm giving the edge to Jamie a) because of EEAAO momentum and b) she has been campaigning HARD for this. 

Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) - Spoiler
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will Win, should win

Shoulda Been a Contender: ??? Ben Whishaw for Women Talking? Paul Dano? Jonathan Tucker for Palm Trees & Power Lines?? The only performance I've seen that I could think might've been a contender was Ralph Fiennes in The Menu. 

This is almost definitely wrapped up. And while I'm glad Barry Keoghan is being recognized, he's already got a great career going. Ke Huy is such a lovely story (although I think it may be another Captain Phillips situation.) Still surprised Judd Hirsch made it in over Paul Dano. 

Best Director

Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will Win

Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) - Spoiler

Todd Field (Tár) - Should Win

Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)

Shoulda Been a Contender: Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun. It's still bonkers that Ruben Ostlund is in here over him. Park Chan-wook - Decision to Leave, S.S. Rajamouli - RRR, maybe Charlotte Wells or Sarah Polley, as the most likely female nominees. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell - spoiler

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - Rian Johnson

Living - Kazuo Ishiguro

Top Gun: Maverick - Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks

Women Talking - Sarah Polley - Will Win

Shoulda Been a Contender: After Yang, Bones & All, Eternal Daughter, Marcel the Shell

I mean yay for a woman winning? I really wanted to see Women Talking, then I heard mixed things, so now I need to catch up tomorrow. I didn't LOVE Stories We Tell, but Sarah does star in Go, one of my all time favorite films (don't @ me), so I'm happy about this. (I have no opinion on should win here.)

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh - Spoiler

Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert - Will Win

The Fabelmans - Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner

Tár - Todd Field - Should Win

Triangle of Sadness - Ruben Östlund

Shoulda Been a Contender: Decision to Leave

I really want Banshees to win this, as I think it's the category it's most likely to win. I think Tár is the best, and while it has it's best shot at Actress, maybe it could sneak in here. But it's doubtful. I think the muchness of EEAAO will take it (much like editing.) 

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio - Will Win

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On - Should Win, Spoiler

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

Shoulda Been a Contender: Wendell & Wild

I actually haven't seen Pinocchio - so it may be worthy. But I loved Marcel. 

Best International Film

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) - Will Win

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) - spoiler

Close (Belgium)

EO (Poland)

The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Shoulda Been a Contender: Decision to Leave. (Maybe Corsage or Holy Spider?)

This is definitely wrapped up. C'est la vie. I love that Ireland made it in?

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes - Should win

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed - spoiler

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny - Will Win

Shoulda Been a Contender: Moonage Daydream? Really - I loved All That Breathes. I'd probably love Fire of Love, too, but I kept missing my chance to see it on the Big Screen. 

Much as I love All That Breathes, I'm not surprised Navalny is the frontrunner. It's supposed to be great, and what with the war, it's the one to pick. 

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front - Will Win

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Elvis - Spoiler, Should Win

Empire of Light

Tár

Shoulda Been a Contender: Ben Bernhard, Riju Das, Saumyananda Sahi - All that Breathes. This came so close to being the first doc to make it in. And it's so, so well done. (I am surprised Top Gun didn't make it in here)

God I hope Elvis wins this. C'MON WOMAN CINEMATOGRAPHER FINALLY. THIRD NOMINEE'S THE CHARM. (Diiiiiiid you know Mandy's the first woman to ever win the ASC?) (I have no idea if Elvis is better than Tár, but I'm sure as hell rooting for it.)

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front - Will Win

Babylon - Spoiler (ugh ugh ugh)

The Banshees of Inisherin - should win

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Shoulda Been a Contender: BONES & ALL. I HAVE NOT STOPPED LISTENING TO IT. IT SHOULD HAVE WON. 

The bookies are saying Babylon. Please god, no.

Best Original Song

"Applause" from Tell It Like a Woman (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)

"Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick (Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop)

"Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler) - spoiler

"Naatu Naatu" from RRR (Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose) - Will Win, Should Win

"This Is a Life" from Everything Everywhere All at Once (Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne)

Shoulda Been a Contender: You Made it Feel Like Home - Bones & All

HELL YES. I LOVE WHEN THE SHOULD WIN HAS IT WRAPPED UP. GIANT INDIAN DANCE NUMBER PLEASE. 

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front - Spoiler

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Elvis

Top Gun: Maverick - Will Win, should win

Shoulda Been a Contender: Nope, Tár, Banshees

I've gone back and forth on this like 4 times. I think this and Best Actor might be the toughest. All Quiet could do a bit of a craft sweep. But Top Gun is SUCH a typical contender for this category and won the CAS and one of the MPSEs. All Quiet did win the BAFTA.

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water - Will Win

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick - should win, spoiler

Shoulda Been a Contender: Nope (the cloud reveal was so scary!) Men (which won the Brit Indie). (I LOVE that RRR was up at the CCAs. I mean, bless.)

Avatar obviously has this wrapped up, no doubt. 

Best Costume Design

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - spoiler

Elvis - Will win

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Shoulda Been a Contender: Tár. Maybe Flux Gourmet or Corsage?

I don't really have opinions here. Elvis seems to have it wrapped up. 

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front - for what? dirt?

The Batman - should win? who knows

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis - Will Win

The Whale - Spoiler

Shoulda Been a Contender: Bones & All, Men

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front - again, dirt? (It's late and I'm feeling salty.)

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon - Will Win

Elvis - Spoiler

The Fabelmans

Shoulda Been a Contender: Tár

Best Documentary Short Subject

The Elephant Whisperers - Spoiler

Haulout - Will Win, Should Win

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Stranger at the Gate

Shoulda Been a Contender: Nuisance Bear (by a lot - I loved this about as much as Haulout), Long Line of Ladies, the Victorias, There's No End, Nsenene, Love Dad, My Duduś, My Parent Neal

The bookies are saying elephant whisperers. But I was bored, and that should have been up my alley. I LOVED Haulout, and I'm hoping it has a shot. All the critics and short of the week agree it's the best one. 

Best Animated Short

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse - Spoiler

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks - Will Win, Should Win

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Shoulda Been a Contender: Sierra, Zoon, the Voice in the Hollow, Letter to a Pig, Swallow the Universe, Still Life

Animated short goes rogue sometimes! Windshield Wiper took it, Logorama took it. Okay - so it doesn't happen OFTEN, and usually some pixar uber-cute thing will win. So the smart money is on the Boy etc. But I think My Year has a chance, and it has more interesting animation. But maybe a lot of voters watched Boy over the holidays (as the most accessible of the shorts, albeit in an indie year (which is great!!))

Best Live-Action Short

An Irish Goodbye - Spoiler

Ivalu

Le Pupille - Will Win, Should Win

Night Ride

The Red Suitcase

Shoulda Been a Contender: Egúngún (Masquerade), Dear Chantal, Training Wheels, Aftertaste, Successful Thawing of Mr Moro, Some Still Search, Huella, Champ, A Wild Patience Has Taken Me Here

I LOVED Le Pupille. 

And how I think all the Best Picture nominees will shake out:

All Quiet on the Western Front - Cinematography, Foreign, Score
Avatar: The Way of Water - VFX
The Banshees of Inisherin - Actor (but v. possibly not)
Elvis - Costume, Makeup
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Directing, Editing, Original Screenplay
The Fabelmans
Tár - Booooo
Top Gun: Maverick - Sound
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking - Adapted Screenplay

So - I'm probably going out on a limb with actor, animated short, and doc short. Crossing my fingers on cinematography. Looking forward to song & (hopefully) live short. Praying All Quiet takes score (Banshees should take that one, but I care very little since Bones isn't up. I do care very much about Babylon not getting it.) Assuming EEAAO does sweep, it's a pretty boring year when 3-5 of the Best Picture nominees aren't expected to get ANYTHING. (Including the best film nominated.)