Well.
Let's see how this goes. Last year was a minor disaster (79/120 outright, 108/120 with spoilers). Here's 2020 (84/118 outright, 110/118 with spoilers), here's 2019 (88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers), here's 2018 (91/121 outright, 113/121 with spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 with spoilers).
Let's change things up and do Best Picture at the end, because it's the worst to format. That said, there's a good chance All Quiet on the Western Front might come in and sweep a bunch of things. It didn't make every shortlist, but it already made quiet a few.
[Ed: update 1/24 with correct answers in bold. Anything missed in italics.
In short: I am SO good. Totals: 91/120 - my highest outright score yet! (Both in percentage and tied for total number.) 114/120 with spoilers (my second best year.)
Perfect categories: Actor, Supporting Actress, Makeup, VFX, sound. !!!
Missed 6: Andrea Riseborough (after I thought about putting her in as a spoiler), Ruben Ostlund (total left field), The Red Suitcase, How do You Measure a Year, Stranger at the Gate, (all shorts) Triangle of Sadness (left field pick for Best Picture!! More below).]
Editing
Quick note: Why the fuck are the ACE Eddie nominations coming out AFTER the oscar noms?
So that makes things a lot harder. Let's go:
Elvis (BAFTA, CCA)
Top Gun Maverick (ditto)
Everything Everywhere (BAFTA, Indie, won the CCA)
All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA)
TÁR (CCA, runner up at the LAFC)
Spoilers
Banshees (BAFTA)
Avatar (CCA)
Aftersun (Indie, Won the LAFC and Brit Indie)
Babylon (CCA)
Fablemans (good shot at a Best Picture nod)
Actress
Cate Blanchett (SAG, BAFTA, won the CCA, won a GG, won the NSFC, gotham nom, indie nom, won the NYFC, won the LAFC, #1 on the IW critics poll)
Michelle Yeoh (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, won a GG, runner up at the NSFC, gotham nom, indie nom, won the NBR, runner up at the LAFC)
Viola Davis (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Danielle Deadwyler (SAG, BAFTA, CCA)
Michelle Williams (CCA, GG, NSFC runner up)
Andrea Riseborough. I guess that campaigning wasn't too little too late!
Spoilers
Ana de Armas (SAG, BAFTA, GG)
Emma Thompson (BAFTA, GG)
Margot Robbie (CCA, GG)
Olivia Colman (GG, beloved)
I wish Taylor Russell or Vicky Krieps were in the running at all.
Actor
Bill Nighy (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG, NSFC runner up)
Austin Butler (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, won a GG)
Colin Farrell (Banshees) (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, won a GG, won NSFC)
Brendan Fraser (SAG, BAFTA, won CCA, GG nom, Gotham nom)
Paul Mescal (BAFTA, CCA, NSFC runner-up, gotham nom, indie nom)
Has anyone heard of hustle? What happened there? I can't believe Adam Sandler is in the running after a single SAG nom, so I'm putting him in spoilers:
Adam Sandler (SAG, nada else)
Tom Cruise (CCA)
Daryl McCormack (BAFTA)
Jeremy Pope (GG, Indie)
It'd be hilarious if Colin Farrell got in twice, but let's go Adam Driver for White Noise (GG)
Supporting Actress
Jamie Lee Curtis (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG, Indie, she is campaigning HARD)
Kerry Condon (SAG, BAFTA, won NSFC, CCA, GG)
Angela Bassett (SAG, BAFTA, won CCA, won GG)
Hong Chau (SAG, BAFTA, gotham)
Stephanie Hsu (SAG, CCA, indie nom for breakthrough)
Spoilers
Carey Mulligan (BAFTA, GG)
Dolly de Leon (BAFTA, runner-up NSFC, GG)
Janelle Monae (CCA)
Jessie Buckley (CCA) (*sob* I want her to be nominated!!)
Nina Hoss (NSFC runner up, indie, gotham)
Supporting Actor
Barry Keoghan (SAG, BAFTA, NSFC runner up, CCA, GG)
Ke Huy Quan (SAG, BAFTA, won NSFC, won CCA, won GG, won Gotham)
Brendan Gleeson (SAG, ABFTA, CCA, GG)
Paul Dano (SAG, CCA)
I can't on Eddie Redmayne, so let's go Albrecht Schuch (BAFTA)
Huh. I wonder if Paul Dano was poorly done by Michelle Williams campaigning in a different category.
Spoilers
Eddie Redmayne (SAG, BAFTA, GG)
Brian Tyree Henry (CCA, NSFC runner up, gotham)
Judd Hirsch (CCA)
Michael Ward (BAFTA)
Mark Rylance (gotham, indie)
Director
Martin McDonagh (DGA, CCA, BAFTA, GG)
Todd Field (DGA, CCA, BAFTA, Indie, won LAFC)
Steven Spielberg (won NBR, won GG, CCA, DGA)
Daniels (DGA, won CCA, BAFTA, GG, Indie)
Joseph Kosinski (DGA)
Ruben Ostlund. Wow.
Spoilers
Charlotte Wells (DGA deb nom, Won NSFC, won debut at gothams, won debut at the NBR, won the BritIndie, won the BritIndie breakthrough)
Sarah Polley (CCA, Indie)
James Cameron (CCA, GG)
Gina Prince-Bythewood (CCA, BAFTA)
SS Rajamouli (CCA, LAFC runner-up, Won NYFC)
Baz Luhrmann has a shot here, too, as does Edward Berger. This is the first category where there's some real diversity in the nominees in the lead up.
Screenplay - Original
Why the fuck are the WGA nominees coming out AFTER the oscar noms as well? (I mean - it's not perfect overlap because of the weird eligibility rules, but. still.) Who thought this awards schedule up?
TÁR (BAFTA, won NSFC, CCA, GG, won Gotham, Indie, won LAFC)
Fablemans (BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Banshees (BAFTA, NSFC runner-up, CCA, won GG, won NBR, LAFC runner-up, won NYFC)
Everything Everywhere (BAFTA, won CCA, GG, Indie)
Aftersun (CCA, won Britindie)
Spoilers
Triangle of Sadness (BAFTA, won EFA)
Armageddon Time (gotham, NSFC Runner-up)
.... There are 33 other films that have been mentioned in this category, but none with any other real precursors.
Screenplay - Adapted
Women Talking (won CCA, GG, Scripter, gotham, indie)
Living (BAFTA, CCA, Scripter, Brit Indie)
She Said (BAFTA, CCA, Scripter)
All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA, won NBR)
Top Gun (Scripter)
Spoilers
After Yang (Gotham, Indie)
Pinocchio (Scripter)
Quiet Girl (BAFTA)
Glass Onion (CCA)
The Whale (BAFTA, CCA)
Catherine Called Birdie also got Gotham and indie noms.
Animated
Marcel! (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, GG, won NBR, won NYFC, LAFC runner-up, Annie indie nom)
Puss in Boots (PGA, Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, CAS)
Turning Red (PGA, Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, CAS)
Pinocchio (PGA, Annie, BAFTA, won CCA, won GG, won LAFC, CAS)
Wendell & Wild (CCA, Annie)
Spoilers
My Father's Dragon (Annie indie, Animation is Film special jury prize)
Minions (PGA)
Inu-Oh (GG, Annie indie)
Sea Beast (Annie)
Little Nicholas (Annie indie, won Animation is Film)
Documentary
All That Breathes (PGA, BAFTA, NSFC runner-up, DocNY shortlist, won IDA, won Gotham, indie, NBR top 5, ASC, CinemaEye)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (BAFTA, won NSFC, DocNY shortlist, IDA, gotham, indie, won LAFC, BritIndie foreign film nom, NBR top 5, won NYFC, CinemaEye)
Fire of Love (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, DocNY shortlist, IDA, LAFC runner-up, CinemaEye)
Navalny (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, DocNY shortlist, IDA, CinemaEye)
Descendant (PGA, NSFC runner-up, CCA, DocNY shortlist, NBR top 5)
Spoilers
The Territory (PGA, CCA debut nom, DocNY shortlist, IDA shortlist, gotham)
Retrograde (PGA, DocNY shortlist)
Moonage Daydream (BAFTA, CCA, DocNY shortlist, IDA shortlist)
The Janes (CCA, DocNY shortlist)
A House Made of Splinters (IDA, Indie)
Foreign
All Quiet on the Western Front (GG, BAFTA, CCA, NBR top 5)
Argentina, 1985 (won GG, BAFTA, CCA, NBR top 5,
Decision to Leave (GG, BAFTA, CCA, NSFC runner-up, NBR top 5, BritIndie)
Corsage (BAFTA, Indie, EFA, Gotham)
Close (GG, CCA, won NBR, EFA, BritIndie)
Spoilers
EO (won NSFC, won LAFC, won NYFC, NBR top 5)
Bardo (CCA)
Quiet Girl (BAFTA)
Saint Omer (Indie, LAFC runner up, NBR top 5, gotham)
Return to Seoul (Indie)
Joyland and Holy Spider also have a shot here, I think. (I still need to see Holy Spider)
Cinematography
Empire of Light (guild, BAFTA, CCA)
Top Gun (guild, BAFTA, won NYFC, won CCA)
Batman (guild, BAFTA)
Elvis (guild, BAFTA)
All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA)
BOOYAH on the All Quiet nom. VERY excited that Tar got in here. REALLY surprised Top Gun did not.
Spoilers
Bardo (guild)
TÁR (CCA, indie)
Fablemans (CCA)
Avatar (CCA)
Aftersun (Indie, won BritIndie)
Justice for All that Breathes!!!
Costume
Elvis (guild - period, CCA, BAFTA)
Babylon (guild - period, CCA, BAFTA)
Mrs. Harris goes to Paris (guild - period, BAFTA, won BritIndie)
Woman King (guild - period, CCA)
Black Panther (guild - fantasy, won CCA)
Spoilers
Glass Onion (guild- contemporary, CCA)
Everything Everywhere (guild- contemporary, CCA)
All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA)
Living (BritIndie, Sandy Powell)
I don't really think Amsterdam has a chance, even with the BAFTA nod. Neither does Don't Worry Darling (the final guild-period nod), so let's say TÁR (guild-contemporary)
Makeup
Batman (BAFTA, CCA, guild-contemporary, guild-fx, guild-contemporary hair)
Elvis (won CCA, BAFTA, guild-period, guild-fx, guild period hair)
Whale (CCA, BAFTA, guild-fx)
Black Panther (CCA, guild-fx, guild-contemporary hair)
All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA)
Spoilers
Babylon (CCA, guild-period & hair)
Amsterdam (guild-period & hair)
Blonde (guild-period & hair)
(It's a 10 short list, so I won't put all 5 as spoilers.)
Production Design
Elvis (guild-period, BAFTA, CCA)
Babylon (BAFTA, won CCA, guild-period)
All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA, guild-period)
Batman (BAFTA, guild-fantasy)
Everything Everywhere (CCA, LAFC runner-up)
Spoilers
Avatar (CCA, won LAFC, guild-fantasy)
Pinocchio (BAFTA)
Black Panther (CCA, guild-fantasy)
Fablemans (CCA, guild-period)
White noise (guild-period)
VFX
Batman (VES, CCA, BAFTA)
Top Gun (VES, CCA, BAFTA)
Avatar (VES, won CCA, BAFTA)
All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA)
Black Panther (CCA)
Spoilers
Fantastic Beasts (VES)
Jurassic World (VES)
Justice for Men!!!
Score
Babylon (boooooooooooo) (BAFTA, CCA, won GG)
Pinocchio (guild, BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Banshees (guild, BAFTA, GG)
Everything Everywhere (guild indie nom, BAFTA)
All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA)
Spoilers
Fablemans (CCA, GG)
Women Talking (CCA, GG)
Nope (guild)
Don't Worry Darling (guild)
She Said
Justice for Bones and All!!!
Song
Naatu Naatu - RRR (won GG, won CCA. If this doesn't get in, we riot)
Ciao Papa - Pinocchio (guillermo & Alexandre desplat) (guild, GG, CCA)
Hold My Hand - Top Gun (Lady Gaga) (guild, GG, CCA)
Carolina - Where the Crawdads (Taylor Swift) (guild, GG, CCA)
Lift Me Up - Black Panther (Rihanna) (guild, GG, CCA)
Spoiler (I know, I know I'm being dumb. Of COURSE Diane Warren is going to be nominated):
Applause - Tell it Like a Woman (Diane Warren) (guild)
New Body Rhumba - White Noise (James Murphy) (CCA)
Good Afternoon - Spirited (guild)
This is a Life - Everything Everywhere (David Byrne & Mitski)
Til You're Home (A Man Called Otto)
(Justice again for Bones and All! You Made it Feel Like Home got a guild nom)
Sound
Elvis (MPSE-adr, CAS, BAFTA)
Top Gun (MPSE-adr, MPSE-foley, CAS, BAFTA)
Avatar (MPSE-foley, CAS, BAFTA)
All Quiet on the Western Front (CAS, BAFTA, MPSE-foreign)
Batman (MPSE-adr, CAS)
Spoiler
Everything Everywhere (MPSE-adr)
Moonage Daydream
Justice for Nope!
Short - Live Action
An Irish Goodbye (BAFTA)
Le Pupille (disney+, alice rohrwacher; italian boarding school)
Warsha (crowdpleaser; lebanon forklift driver)
Tula (crowdpleaser; headmaster/student sex ed)
Night Ride (available online; humor about gender discrimination)
The Red Suitcase
Spoilers
Ivalu (greenland, dark)
The Lone Wolf (one-shot)
Sideral (black & white; Brazil in the shadow of a space center)
Almost Home (zero gravity)
Short - Documentary
Haulout (won IDA, won AFI fest. I'm excited to see this)
Nuisance Bear (IDA hon mention, CCA cinematography nom, ditto)
As Far as They Can Run (DocNY shortlist; Pakistan special olympics)
Flagmakers (DocNY shortlist, on disney+, past winner)
38 at the Garden (past winner)
How do You Measure a Year (I wondered what this was, given the title, and it's boyhood. But with a girl and as a short doc.)
Stranger at the Gate
Spoilers
Martha Mitchell Effect (DocNY shortlist)
Shut Up and Paint (DocNY shortlist)
Angola Do You Hear Us? (IDA/DocNY shortlists)
Elephant Whisperers (IDA/DocNY shortlists)
Anastasia (DocNY shortlist)
Short - Animated
This is an AMAZING year: no pixar, no disney, no netflix, no Dreamworks, no sony, no skydance, and no aardman is in the running. 😱
Flying Sailor (Annie. I liked this)
Ice Merchants (Annie. This one's obvious, but well done)
Black Slide (Annie)
The Boy, the mole, the fox, and the Horse (Annie) (on apple+ I believe)
Sierra (AFI winner; god I love this one)
Sad about Sierra, but excited to watch the Ostrich one.
Spoilers
My Year of Dicks (HELL yes)
Steakhouse (I HATED this)
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
The Debutante
It’s Nice in Here
Best Picture
Okay.
1. Banshees (DGA, PGA, SAG, CCA, NBR top 10, won GG, AFI special award)
2. TÁR (DGA, PGA, BAFTA, CCA, GG, won NSFC, won gotham, indie, won LAFC, won NYFC, AFI top 10)
3. Fablemans (DGA, PGA, SAG, CCA, NBR top 10, won GG, AFI top 10)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (DGA, PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, NBR top 10, GG, gotham, Indie, won LAFC, AFI top 10)
5. Top Gun (DGA, PGA, CCA, won NBR, GG, AFI top 10)
6. Elvis (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, GG, AFI top 10)
7. Avatar (PGA, CCA, NBR top 10, GG, AFI top 10)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA only, but I think the European bloc is going to pull a The Father with this one.)
9. Women Talking (SAG, CCA, NBR top 10, Indie, AFI top 10)
10. Glass Onion (PGA, CCA, NBR top 10, GG)
[Triangle of Sadness. I correctly predicted the Europe bloc would come through on All Quiet, but did not think it would extend to Triangle, given its divisiveness. Ah well!]
Spoilers
Babylon (SAG, CCA, GG)
RRR (CCA, NBR top 10)
The Whale (PGA)
Black Panther (PGA)
Aftersun (NBR top 10, gotham, indie debut nom, BAFTA brit nom)
At least Bones and All got an Indie nom.
And I think the breakdown will be (additional noms to Best Picture my prediction -> final count):
All Quiet on the Western Front (10 -> 7)- Edit, Supporting Actor, Screenplay (A), Foreign, Cinematography, Makeup, Production Design, VFX, Score, Sound
Everything Everywhere All at Once (9 -> 10) - Edit, Actress, Supporting Actress x2, Supporting Actor, Director, Screenplay (O), Production Design, Score, Costume, Song
Banshees (7 -> 8) - Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor x2, Director, Screenplay (O), Score, Edit
Elvis (7) - Edit, Actor, Cinematography, Costume, Makeup, Production Design, Sound
Top Gun (7 -> 5) - Edit, Director, Screenplay (A), Cinematography, VFX, Song, Sound
TÁR (4 -> 5) - Edit, Actress, Director, Screenplay (O), Cinematography
Fablemans (4 -> 6) - Actress, Supporting Actor (I got the category, but they went Judd Hirsch (who I had as a spoiler) over Paul Dano, Director, Screenplay (O), Production Design, Score
Avatar (2 -> 3) - VFX, Sound, Production Design
Women Talking (1) - Screenplay (A)
[Triangle of Sadness - director, Screenplay (which at least I had in as a spoiler)]
[So Fablemans did better than I expected, as did Banshees, TAR, EEAAO and Avatar (each picking up one). All Quiet on the Western Front did do very well, but not quite as well as expected. Top Gun also didn't do as well - that director one hurts! Correctly predicted Elvis and Women Talking.]
(Now, perhaps Babylon will take the Glass Onion spot, as I do expect it to get some other categories... I hope RRR takes it, though...)
Now let's all go watch David Ehrlich's Top 25 countdown again, remember the Oscars matter only as much as sports, and appreciate the Whitney Houston needle drop: https://vimeo.com/786806921
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