Here's 2020 (84/118 outright, 110/118 with spoilers), here's 2019 (88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers), here's 2018 (91/121 outright, 113/121 with spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 with spoilers).
(I take some tiny solace in the thought that most people agree it was probably in 11th place, all things considered.)
79/120 outright, 108/120 with spoilers. Shocking. Just shocking.
The non-spoiler surprises (I did baaad this year):
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Director. Not a total surprise - BAFTA nom and NSFC winner.
- Judi Dench in supporting. Not too surprising: Judi. (Crying A LOT over Ruth Negga, who I (and I think everyone) thought was a lock.)
- Attica for doc. Really surprised it made it in over the Rescue.
- Worst Person for screenplay. SOOOOO THRILLED.
- Power of the Dog for Production Design. I thought about it, but it didn't have any precursors. THRILLED.
- Somehow you do for song. I knew better. I really did.
- Belfast for sound. Since it just got the one MPSE, I thought not. But I think the opening scene may have stuck with voters?
- Lead Me Home for doc short
- Boxballet for animated short
- Ala Kachuu - Take and Run, The Dress, or On My Mind for live action short. ???
Perfect categories: Best Actor, Animated. That's it. Rough year.
Best PictureThankfully back to 10, and the nom predictions are slightly exciting because no film got WGA/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble. (Although WGA is only somewhat of a precursor, because so many films are ineligible.)
Okay - locks. Those with a PGA & DGA:
1. Dune - 11 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA
2. Power of the Dog - 8 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, 3 SAGs (but not ensemble, which sucks), WGA ineligible (but up for a scripter)
3. Belfast - 6 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG
4. Licorice Pizza - 5 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA, 1 SAG
5. West Side Story - 5 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA, 1 SAG
Then less certain, but it did get a DGA debut nod, and I just have no objectivity here:
6. tick, tick... BOOM! - PGA, WGA, 1 SAG, DGA (deb)
And the PGA/WGA/ensembles:
7. CODA - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG
8. Don't Look Up - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble
9. King Richard - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG
Least likely, but has the PGA
10. Being the Ricardos - WGA, PGA, 2 SAGs
So yes. I am just picking the PGA nods here. But I'll explain why below.
Spoilers:
- House of Gucci - SAG ensemble, 2 SAGs. This is the most likely to spoil, imho, just because the acting branch is so strong in the Academy. I wouldn't mind it replacing Being the Ricardos.
- Nightmare Alley - WGA, 1 SAG, craft, CCA nom (only CCA nom that didn't overlap with PGA - swapped for Being the Ricardos.) I would have put this ahead of Being the Ricardos, but then... I saw it yesterday. 🤷♀️ And although the Shape of Water was loved, that was a better film? So I think the Sorkin love will carry Being the Ricardos (especially after Trial of the Chicago 7 went 0 for 6.).
- Lost Daughter - DGA (deb), (WGA ineligible), 1 SAG. I'd love for this to get in, but it seems unlikely. A chance at screenplay/actress, I think (supporting actress to spoil).
- Drive My Car - critically beloved & foreign films have broken the best picture barrier? (Yes, they get in every so often, but rarely.) Won the NSFC, LAFC, NYFC. I don't think it has the support Parasite did, but the expanded voting block has been skewing artsier recently, so.
And for the overall breakdown, I think we go:
Power of the Dog - edit, director, actor, s. actress, s. actor x2, adapted screenplay, cinematography, score (spoilers: sound); added: production design - 10 nods, possibly 11. 12!!! SO thrilled it's such a clear frontrunner. (And annoyed at myself - I thought about production design for how good the house was. Shoulda gone with my gut.)
Dune - edit, director, adapted screenplay, cinematography, costume, makeup, production design, visual effects, score, sound - 11 nods (hey! Just like the BAFTAs) 10 - Everything except director, which has to sting, but again: hard to argue with Drive My Car.
West Side Story - edit, director, s. actress, s. actor (boo), adapted screenplay (BOO), cinematography, costume, makeup, production design, sound (spoilers:, s. actress (other)) - 11 nods, possibly 12. 7 - Well this wildly underperformed from my expectations
Belfast - edit, director, s. actress, s. actor, cinematography (spoilers: s. actor (other), original screenplay, costume, makeup, production design, song); added: different supporting actress, sound - 6 nods, possibly 12. 7. Ha! Not too bad. I was so worried it would pick up a ton.
King Richard - actor, s. actress, original screenplay, song (spoiler: edit) - 5 nods, possibly 6. 6
Don't Look Up - original screenplay, score (spoiler: edit) - 3 nods, possibly 4. 4
Didn't have in this list (under spoilers for Best Pic): Drive My Car. 4 (pic, foreign, director, screenplay).
Ditto: Nightmare Alley. Sigh. 4 (pic, cinematography, costume, production design)
Licorice Pizza - edit, director, original screenplay (spoilers: actress, s. actor, production design) - 4 nods, possibly 7. 3
CODA - s. actor (spoilers: actress, adapted screenplay) - 2 nods, possibly 4. 3
Being the Ricardos - actress, actor, original screenplay, (spoilers: s. actor, score) - 4 nods, possibly 6. 3 (no Best Pic)
tick, tick... BOOM! - actor, adapted screenplay (please) (spoilers: edit (please please please), director, sound) - 3 nods, possibly 6. 2. (no Best Pic) They're two big ones, but still. Sniffles.
The rest (non-Best Picture) films are: Encanto-3, Flee-3 (which I am DELIGHTED with - I so wanted it to make history there), Lost Daughter - 3, No Time to Die - 3, Tragedy of Mackers - 3, Cruella - 2, Eyes of Tammy Faye - 2, Parallel Mothers - 2, and Worst Person in the World - 2 (yay!!)
I'm rooting for Power of the Dog, because I think it's the best film this year, but I *really* want as many noms as possible for tick, tick... BOOM!, since I adore it and it could go either way.
I have a terrible sinking feeling Belfast could just get a ton. And, boy. It sure is a movie.
Editing
Dune (guild-D, BAFTA, CCA)
Power of the Dog (guild-D, BAFTA longlist, CCA)
Licorice Pizza (guild-C, BAFTA, CCA)
Belfast (guild-D, BAFTA, CCA)
West Side Story (CCA). Weirdly, it feels like King Richard should be here (with a guild nod.) But I think WSS is likely to get so many nominations, and it's a stronger best picture lock, that that will carry over here.
Spoilers
King Richard (guild-D)
No Time to Die (guild-D, BAFTA)
tick, tick... BOOM! (guild-C, BAFTA longlist) (I would obviously LOVE for this to get in. I think they did a great job.)
Don't Look Up (guild-C, BAFTA longlist)
French Dispatch (guild-C, BAFTA longlist)
Director
Denis Villenueve - Dune
Jane Campion - Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh - Belfast (whyyy)
Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
Steven Spielberg - West Side Story
Did not have: Ryusuke Hamaguchi - Drive My Car
These 5 all got DGAs and CCAs; Jane and PTA also got BAFTA nods.
Spoilers:
Maggie Gyllenhaal - Lost Daughter
Rebecca Hall - Passing
LMM - tick, tick... BOOM!
They all got DGA deb nods and Maggie got a GG nod. The other 3 BAFTAs are all foreign nods, and I don't think Drive My Car has Parasite momentum, so I think they're all out.
Best Actress
Lady Gaga - House of Gucci. Sure thing: SAG, BAFTA (the ONLY SAG/BAFTA overlap), CCA, GG, WON the NYFC (?!)
Jessica Chastain - Eyes of Tammy Faye. Likely: SAG, CCA, GG
Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos. Likely: SAG, CCA, Won a GG
Olivia Colman - Lost Daughter. Likely: SAG, CCA, GG
The last SAG is Jennifer Hudson. BAFTAs went to Alana Haim, Emilia Jones, Joanna Scanlan, Tessa Thompson, and Renate Reinsve. Joanna and Tessa are from British films, so I think they're out. This is one where I'd LOVE to see that "The Father" contingent pull Renate Reinsve in, because hers is my favorite performance of the year. Alana and Emilia are both debuts (like Rachel Zegler), and while I'm happy CODA is getting some love, I think Alana (with a CCA nod), has the edge there. Of course, the big story has been Kristen Stewart being out after CCA and GG nods (and coming 2nd in the indieWire critics poll!). Soooo... the Oscars obviously love J.Hud and the actors are 1/10 of the academy. So even though Respect has next to know awareness, I think it'll break down as:
Jennifer Hudson - Respect
Spoilers:
Renate Reinsve - Worst Person in the World (pleeeease)
uggghhh.... maybe Kristen Stewart, but probably not.
A lot of people seem to think Penelope Cruz, but she only won the NSFC and LAFC, and nothing else, so I don't know where that is coming from??
(Probably not Tessa. Probably not Rachel Zegler, unless there's a HUGE WSS swell, ditto the other debuts. And, much as the Academy (rightly) loves Frances McDormand, she's got no precursors.)
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch - Power of the Dog - SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG
Will Smith - King Richard - SAG, BAFTA, CCA, won GG
Andrew Garfield - tick, tick... BOOM! - SAG, CCA, won GG
Javier Barden - Being the Ricardos - SAG, GG
Denzel Washington - Mackers - SAG, CCA, GG
Spoilers
Leonardo DiCaprio - Don't Look Up - BAFTA, GG
Peter Dinklage - Cyrano - BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
Anthony Ramos - In the Heights - GG
Wouldn't it be great if Adam Driver had a chance? The only other GG nom is Cooper Hoffman, and I just don't see it. Oscar Isaac out of left field?
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose - West Side Story (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, NSFC Runner Up, won GG/LAFC)
Catriona Balfe - Belfast (SAG, BAFTA, CCA)
Kirsten Dunst - Power of the Dog (SAG, CCA, GG)
Ruth Negga - Passing (SAG, BAFTA, GG, Indie, Gotham, won NSFC)
Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard (BAFTA, CCA, GG). Last spot is tricky, but King Richard's got more love than Nightmare Alley
Noooooooooooooo. I missed this morning that Ruth didn't get in. 😭 Didn't have: Judi Dench for Belfast. Which I THOUGHT about and went, 'nah. They already did that for Shakespeare in Love. They won't do it again.' Never overestimate the academy, folks.
Spoilers
Ann Dowd - Mass (CCA)
Cate Blanchett - Nightmare Alley (SAG, but nothing else)
Jessie Buckley - Lost Daughter (BAFTA, NSFC Runner Up, Indie, Gotham)
Rita Moreno - West Side Story (CCA, and because the Academy loves throwing it back to that kind of history)
Kathryn Hunter - Tragedy of Mackers (only the BAFTA longlist, but a fair bit of press)
Marlee Matlin could? Either way, I can't wait to see her. Best dressed last year for sure.
Best Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee - Power of the Dog (SAG, BAFTA, NSFC Runner Up, CCA, won GG)
Troy Kotsur - CODA (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG, won Gotham)
Ciarán Hinds - Belfast (BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Mike Faist - West Side Story (BAFTA, NSFC Runner Up)
Jesse Plemons - Power of the Dog (BAFTA)
I should probably go with the SAGs, but..... bleh. This is the last category I'm picking. It's late, I'm tired, and the above are better nominations.
Really pleased to have called the 2x Power of the Dog. Hard to argue with JK Simmons (I love him), but I was hoping for Mike Faist.
Spoilers
Bradley Cooper - Licorice Pizza (SAG, BAFTA longlist. The old hollywood connection could work with Academy voters)
Jared Leto - House of Gucci (SAG, CCA). I cannot. Who keeps casting this asshole?
Ben Affleck (SAG, GG. What comeback is he on?)
Jamie Dornan - Belfast (how is this supporting??) (CCA, GG, BAFTA longlist)
JK Simmons - Being the Ricardos (CCA)
Animated
I find it VERY odd that Flee wasn't up for the PGA, and I hope it doesn't foreshadow Oscar's sometimes trend of overlooking adult animation.
Encanto
Mitchells vs. the Machines
Flee
Luca
Raya and the Dragon
Spoilers
Sing 2
(If something like Belle makes it in over Flee, Imma be pissed.)
Foreign
Drive My Car
Worst Person in the World
A Hero
Flee
Hand of God
Spoilers
It would be amazing if Bhutan made it in with Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom. Bhutan hadn't submitted in so long, the country wasn't even listed on the form when they went to submit.
I'm Your Man
Compartment No 7
Prayers for the Stolen
Great Freedom
A little surprised at Asghar Farhadi's exclusion, but yay for classroom yak!
Doc
Locks:
Summer of Soul
The Rescue
Flee
Maybes:
Ascension
First Wave
Spoilers
In the Same Breath
Writing with Fire
Simple as Water
Procession
Didn't have: Attica. REALLY surprised it got in over the Rescue.
I'm still sad All Light Everywhere didn't make the shortlist. And where is Cow?!?! I want to see it.
Screenplay - Original
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Don't Look Up
French Dispatch
Spoilers
Belfast (ugh)
Parallel Mothers
Card Counter
Didn't have Worst Person in the World. HELL YES!!!!
Screenplay - Adapted
West Side Story
Lost Daughter
Power of the Dog
tick, tick... BOOM!
Dune
Hmmm- prognosticators don't seem to think tick tick boom. But it got a guild nod, so....
Spoilers
CODA
Nightmare Alley
Passing
Drive My Car
Cinematography
Dune
Power of the Dog (Yay!! If only she could double nod with Zola)
Tragedy of Mackers
Unfortunately, I think spot 4 is likely to be Belfast (guild nod/CCA; at least the BAFTAs had the good sense to give it a pass. If you needed another black and white, why not go with Passing? Or C'mon C'mon??)
Then, while Nightmare Alley has had more precursors in this category, I think WSS has more support overall and it will trickle down here, where it did get the CCA nod and won the NYFC.
I cannot tell you how happy I am Nightmare Alley made it in here over Belfast. (I didn't like Nightmare Alley, sadly, and I'm now angry at its best picture nom, but it did have some good craft work, and its cinematography was definitely better than Belfast's.)
Spoilers
Nightmare Alley (guild, BAFTA, CCA)
No Time to Die (BAFTA, but: brit)
Passing (Indie (as is Zola, but Academy : staid, so I don't think Ari gets a double nod))
I'd like to think the Green Knight, which won the NSFC.
(Speaking of things that are longshots - the Humans got a nod for the Indies. I was expecting that to be big Oscar bait, what with the acclaim of the play and that cast, but it's been pretty much radio silence. I wonder if it's a Nightmare Alley situation. Some good elements, but inert overall.)
Costume
Cruella
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Dune
Spencer (only BAFTA longlist, but.. Jacqueline. Let's not talk about her Little Women costumes, and think about Peterloo instead...)
Going with guild nominees (mostly period, except Dune), & guessing Jacqueline is on a Colleen Atwood/Sandy Powell-type roll.
I... thought there was a shortlist here, but I think I just screwed up my tracker sheet. Which makes this a little harder. Oops
Spoilers (assuming there's not a shortlist)
Nightmare Alley (guild-period, CCA, BAFTA)
Cyrano (guild-period, BAFTA)
French Dispatch (BAFTA)
Green Knight (guild - fantasy)
In the Heights (guild - contemporary)
Makeup
Why does Makeup get a shortlist and not costume??
Cruella
Dune
Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Spoilers
Coming 2 America
Suicide Squad
No Time to Die
Cyrano
Could be Nightmare Alley in that last spot (CCA nod)
Production Design
French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Dune
Tragedy of Mackers
Didn't have and am thrilled got in: Power of the Dog. I THOUGHT about how great that house was, but went with those that had precursors. Glad it got swept in.
Spoilers
Licorice Pizza (guild-period)
Belfast (CCA)
Cruella (guild-fantasy (why is it both period (for makeup and costume) and fantasy? who knows.))
Cyrano (BAFTA)
Green Knight (guild-fantasy)
Vis Effects
Dune
Matrix Resurrections (boo)
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi
Spider-Man
Spoilers
Godzilla vs. Kong
Free Guy (man, I had this and then swapped it down to spoilers (but I swapped spiderman, so it didn't change my ratio))
Ghostbusters
Eternals
Score
Power of the Dog
Don't Look Up
Dune
French Dispatch
Spencer
Spoilers
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
Being the Ricardos
No Time to Die
One prognosticator thought Mackers, which I didn't see make a single precursor, so I'm wondering if they know something... (I took Encanto off, because I don't think anyone is voting on trying to get LMM his EGOT, but...)
Song
Be Alive - King Richard - Beyonce
Dos Oruguitas - Encanto - LMM
No Time to Die - No Time to Die - Billie Eilish
Here I Am - Respect - J. Hud/Carole King/Jamie Alexander Hartman
Guns Go Bang - Harder they Fall - Kid Cudi/Jay-Z
Spoilers
Just Look Up - Don't Look Up - Nicholas Britell/Ariana Grande/Kid Cudi/Taura Stinson
Automatic Woman - Bruised - H.E.R.
Down to Joy - Belfast - Van Morrison
So May We Start - Annette - Sparks. God I wish this would get in.
Is it stupid to exclude the Diane Warren?? Probably. If Dear Evan Hansen gets in we riot.
Didn't have: Somehow You Do - Four Good Days - Diane Warren. Why. What does she have on everyone??? (I tease. She's great and it must suck to be Susan Lucci.)
Sound
Dune
Last Night in Soho
No Time to Die
A Quiet Place pt II
West Side Story
Spoilers
Power of the Dog
tick, tick... BOOM!
Spider Man
Matrix Resurrections
Belfast only got an MPSE for foley and a BAFTA longlist. So unless it sweeps... (please don't let it sweep.)
Short - Doc
Águilas
A Broken House
Queen of Basketball
Coded
Day of Rage
Spoilers
Terror Contagion
Three Songs for Benazir
Audible
Camp Confidential
When We Were Bullies
Did not have: Lead Me Home. Honestly surprised here, as both Águilas and Broken House had nominations in IDA and CinemaEye.
Short - Live
The Criminals
Les Grandes Claques
Under the Heavens
When the Sun Sets
You're Dead Helen
Spoilers
The Long Goodbye
Frimas
Stenofonen
Please Hold
Tala'vision
WOW. Didn't get Ala Kachuu - Take and Run, The Dress, or On My Mind. Really surprised by Les Grandes Claques not getting in.
Short - Ani
Robin Robin (charming)
Souvenir Souvenir (really good)
Windshield Wiper
Affairs of the Art
sigh. I really don't want it to be Bestia. I hated that one. So I'm going to go:
Namoo
Spoilers
Bestia (uggghhhhh)
Mum is Pouring Rain (I love this one) (boo)
Step into the River (I liked this one too)
Us Again
Only a Child
Did not have: Boxballet
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