2020 Oscars Aftermath

As always, hoping for that elusive 22+. Harder now with the expansion of the voting bloc - as we saw come through in the nominations with The Father. 

[Update: 17/23, 22/23 with spoilers - Frances being the only one I had picked for being in 3rd place who won. (And hurray! I'm so thrilled - she deserved it!) But having no wildcard wins really showcases that the longer season made this a pretty boring oscars. Shorter campaign season please!]

Best Picture
The Father - spoiler
Judas and the Black Messiah 
Mank 
Minari 
Nomadland - Will win, should win, did win
Promising Young Woman 
Sound of Metal 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 

This was such a great win, completely and totally undercut by NOT BEING THE LAST AWARD GIVEN OUT. SODERBERGH!!!

Final likely counts for each:
The Father - adapted screenplay, [actor!]
Judas and the Black Messiah - supporting actor, [song!]
Mank - [cinematography], production design
Minari - supporting actress
Nomadland - picture, director, cinematography, [actress!]
Promising Young Woman - original screenplay
Sound of Metal - sound (duh), editing
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - nothing?

 
Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) - spoiler.
David Fincher (Mank) 
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) 
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) - will win, should win, did win
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) 

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) - will win
Andra Day (The United States v. Billie Holiday) 
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) 
Frances McDormand (Nomadland) - should win, did win YAAAYYY!!!!
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) - spoiler

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) - should win
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) - will win
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) - spoiler, did win
Gary Oldman (Mank) 
Steven Yeun (Minari) 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) 
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) 
Olivia Colman (The Father) - spoiler
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) 
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) - will win, did win

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) 
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) - will win, did win
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) 
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) - spoiler, should win
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
 
Best Film Editing
The Father 
Nomadland - should win
Promising Young Woman 
Sound of Metal - Will win, did win
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - spoiler

Best International Feature Film
Another Round (Denmark) - will win, did win
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania) 
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) - spoiler

YYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!

Best Animated Feature Film
Onward (Pixar) 
Over the Moon (Netflix) 
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix) 
Soul (Pixar) - will win, did win
Wolfwalkers (Apple TV Plus/GKIDS) - spoiler, should win

Best Documentary Feature
Collective 
Crip Camp 
The Mole Agent 
My Octopus Teacher - will win, did win
Time - Should Win, spoiler 
 
Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 
The Father - will win, did win
Nomadland - spoiler, should win
One Night in Miami 
The White Tiger 

Best Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah 
Minari - should win
Promising Young Woman - will win, did win
Sound of Metal 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - spoiler

Best Original Song
Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah). Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II - spoiler, did win
Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7). Music by Daniel Pemberton
Húsavík (Eurovision Song Contest). Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson - should win
Io Si (Seen) (The Life Ahead). Music by Diane Warren
Speak Now (One Night in Miami). Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth - will win

Best Original Score
Da 5 Bloods 
Mank 
Minari 
News of the World 
Soul  - will win, did win

Best Sound
Greyhound 
Mank 
News of the World 
Soul - spoiler
Sound of Metal - will win, did win

Best Costume Design
Emma  - should win
Mank  
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom  - will win, did win
Mulan - spoiler
Pinocchio Massimo 

Best Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah 
Mank - spoiler, did win
News of the World 
Nomadland - should win, will win
The Trial of the Chicago 7 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma - should win
Hillbilly Elegy 
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - will win, did win
Mank 
Pinocchio - spoiler

Best Production Design
The Father - spoiler
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 
Mank - will win, did win
News of the World 
Tenet 

Best Visual Effects
Love and Monsters - spoiler
The Midnight Sky 
Mulan 
The One and Only Ivan 
Tenet - will win, did win

Best Animated Short Film
Burrow 
Genius Loci  
If Anything Happens I Love You - will win, did win
Opera - should win, spoiler
Yes-People 

Best Live-Action Short Film
Feeling Through 
The Letter Room 
The Present - will win
Two Distant Strangers - spoiler, did win
White Eye - should win

[Update: Damn. I should have gone with my cynicism and chosen Two Distant Strangers.]

Best Documentary Short Subject
Colette - spoiler, did win
A Concerto Is a Conversation 
Do Not Split 
Hunger Ward 
A Love Song for Latasha - will win