It's that time again!
It's obviously an odd year. I'm glad they now have an online screening room for voters. I hope they eventually start making more voting categories/nominee voting limited to those that have seen a majority or all films in a category. I'm sorry that, although all the films are small - given the lack of film viewership and production, several truly independent films weren't able to break through, such as First Cow and Never Rarely Sometimes Always.
As always, hoping for that elusive 22+. Harder now with the expansion of the voting bloc - as we saw come through in the nominations with The Father.
Past years:
2019: 19 (Bong!)
2018: 20
2017: 15 (Moonlight!)
2016: 17
2015: 21
2014: 20
2013: 18
2012: 17
2011: 17
2010: 17
And as always, will win/should win/spoilers, as well as some snubs. Although many more ideas on those here.
Best Picture
The Father - spoiler
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland - Will win, should win
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Snub: First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Proxima
I'm still really surprised that in a year so focused on racial justice, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey, and One Night in Miami all had legitimate chances to be included here and weren't. I didn't love Ma Rainey or One Night (I thought One Night was okay with some great acting), but to me, that places them easily alongside Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman or Mank. I wonder if two of those would have been included if this were a year of a mandatory 10 nominees (as next year will go back to)?
As for what we do have, the editing nominees are Nomadland, Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman and The Father, so that's probably our real field (Sorry, Minari). Nomadland is the clear frontrunner, having won the PGA, BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, Indie, and GG - drama, as well as the NSFC. It's broadly liked - hitting in the top 10 on most end of year lists. The only major award it didn't win (and wasn't eligible for) was the SAG, which went to Chicago 7. I'm rather split on a spoiler - because actors are the largest voting bloc, so normally I'd go with Chicago 7, but the Father is so well regarded in Europe which, we saw from the nominations, really pushed for it. And I'm not 100% convinced the Oscars won't go with the old hollywood love for Mank, given that it leads with 10 nominations... but with no editing... I'm just giving it by a nose to the Father, which - I haven't seen because I really dislike films about dementia - but I trust Seventh Row's judgement that it is excellent. And, just occasionally, that matters at the Oscars.
I did think it was interesting that one director pointed out that in a year of stage to film adaptations, the Father was the one that really worked, while One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey did not. (Can't comment on the Father, but I do agree with that assessment of the other two.)
Although I'm not over the First Cow snub (IMMA WEAR MY T-SHIRT), Nomadland is otherwise my favorite film of the year, and it's such a rare delight to think the deserving best film may actually win.
Final likely counts for each:
The Father - adapted screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah - supporting actor
Mank - cinematography, production design
Minari - supporting actress
Nomadland - picture, director, cinematography
Promising Young Woman - original screenplay
Sound of Metal - sound (duh), editing
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - editing, nothing?
So I think Chicago 7 may be the only thing to get blanked? (I changed my mind on two categories at the last moment...) But it could very well take editing. (Although I hope Nomadland takes adapted screenplay, editing, and cinematography (and actress) as well.) And, I could be wildly discounting what seems to be one of the more traditional Oscar bait films and, given the SAG, I am maybe setting myself up for failure.
Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) - spoiler.
David Fincher (Mank)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) - will win, should win
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Snub: Kelly Reichardt - First Cow, Eliza Hittman - Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Alice Winocour - Proxima. Also I was SO chuffed to see Shannon Murphy land a BAFTA nod for Babyteeth, which I really loved. And it wasn't eligible, but Patricia Rozema - Mouthpiece.
Chloe has won the DGA, GG, BAFTA, NSFC, Indie, LAFC, NYFC and CCA. It's her. And well deserved, too - I love her.
(I'm only throwing Thomas in as a spoiler because Another Round is great. Promising Young Woman is Not For Me (and I'm afraid all the praise probably won't highlight all its problems to Emerald), but like with Darius Marder, I'm interested to see what she does next. That said, there were SO MANY truly great, established women directors who should have been in here instead. Or over David Fincher (and, as a Fincher fan, it pains me to say that.) Even Shannon Murphy, who had a better debt film.)
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) - will win
Andra Day (The United States v. Billie Holiday)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland) - should win
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) - spoiler
Snub: Eva Green, Proxima (There are, truly, a lot of other great performances that deserved more recognition, but she really towers above the rest)
This is a FASCINATING race. The wins are so evenly distributed! Viola got the SAG, Frances the BAFTA, Andra the GG, and Carey the Indie. For that reason alone, I'm rooting for Vanessa! (Well, that, and her excellent performance in Julie. No, I haven't seen Pieces of a Woman yet...)
I think Viola has the edge, given the SAG. But given that Promising is otherwise only going to get screenplay, and so much of that film revolves around Carey's performance, I wonder if she might not pull out an upset. Plus, she's been well liked and doing good work a long time. (I need to see the Dig.) I do think Frances gave the best performance, but she couldn't care less about awards and just won for Three Billboards. But I think people respect her performance, and I wouldn't be super surprised if she got it.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) - should win
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) - will win
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) - spoiler
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)
Snub: Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (he got the EFA! A BAFTA nomination! He clearly would have won best actor at Cannes if that had happened! Thomas Vinterberg got in!) Also Hugh Jackman - Bad Education, Kingsley Ben-Adir - One Night in Miami, John Magaro & Orion Lee - First Cow
This is also a little hard to predict! Chadwick felt like the frontrunner with the SAG and the GG-drama, but Anthony Hopkins got the BAFTA and Riz the Indie. I'm truly glad Steven Yuen is in here (he shoulda been up for Burning!) and Gary really should've been replaced with Mads, particularly given that he just won. I can't really pick my favorite between Riz and Steven; Riz might be a hair better, but his film isn't as good. Plus, in my heart, Mads wins.
I think the posthumous support goes to Chadwick, even though I don't think it's a great performance (my sense is that it needed some reshoots and/or a better edit to help his role gel). But he got several nods for Da 5 Bloods as well, and I think he's well-respected enough that he'll get it, a la Heath Ledger.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Olivia Colman (The Father) - spoiler
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) - will win
Snub: Essie Davis - Babyteeth
I haven't seen enough of these to really make a judgement on who should win. I thought Yuh-jung Youn was very good, and I'm glad Amanda Seyfried was recognized, as she was one of the only parts of Mank I liked. Maria Bakalova did get the CCA and NYFC, and Olivia Colman is a treasure and obviously well-liked by the academy, but Yuh-jung Youn has won pretty much every precursor. I'm sure it'll be her.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) - will win
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) - spoiler, should win
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Snub: David Thewlis - I'm Thinking of Ending Things, Aldis Hodge - One Night in Miami
Nominating Lakeith Stanfield here continues to be insane. I mean - not a single precursor, because - and this is important - HE'S SO CLEARLY THE LEAD. At least he thinks it's crazy, too.
I'm delighted Paul Raci got the Indie, NBR, and the NSFC, but Daniel Kaluuya has gotten almost every award. He's getting it. And it's a great performance! I would have liked a stronger screenplay for him, but ah well. Leslie has a fair chance in song.
Best Film Editing
The Father
Nomadland - should win
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal - Will win
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - spoiler
Snub: Docs never get in here, but Time & City Hall. For features, I'd say Never Rarely Sometimes Always, which got an Indie nod, and I'm Thinking of Ending Things.
Hmmm - Nomadland got the Indie, Chicago 7 got the guild, Sound of Metal got the BAFTA, and those last two split the CCAs. I don't think Nomadland is flashy enough, even though best editing and best picture so often go hand in hand, and I'm hamstrung here for not having seen Chicago 7. I think Sound will win, well, sound, so maybe Chicago 7 wins here for being traditional Oscar bait? That said, perhaps the flashiness of Sound's transitions will carry the day here? I'm going with Sound, but could very well see Chicago 7 getting it.
Best International Feature Film
Another Round (Denmark) - will win
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) - spoiler
Snub: Proxima, Ema
I think this is really a two-horse race, although Collective is well thought of in the doc category as well, so I wouldn't be too too shocked if it won. Another Round got the BAFTA and a GG nom, Quo Vadis, Aida the Indie. I... really meant to see Quo Vadis - I bought a ticket and then... just was not up for a film about genocide the nights it was available. So - I think probably both are well deserving (I loved Another Round and have heard only raves about Quo Vadis.) I think Another Round has had more attention and may have been more widely seen, plus between Cannes/the EFAs/the BAFTAs, I think the European push gives it the edge.
Best Animated Feature Film
Onward (Pixar)
Over the Moon (Netflix)
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)
Soul (Pixar) - will win
Wolfwalkers (Apple TV Plus/GKIDS) - spoiler, should win
Snub: World of Tomorrow 3
It'll be the Pixar. Despite the early mixed reviews, it's won everything. Wolfwalkers has picked up a few indie awards, like at the Annies, and some critics awards, but that's it. Which is too bad! It's great. (As is, I presume, the Shaun the sheep.)
Best Documentary Feature
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher - will win
Time - Should Win, spoiler
Snub: Gunda (which at least made the shortlist) and City Hall (which did NOT and that is just a joke.) Also Dick Johnson is Dead was great, as was Bloody Nose Empty Pockets and Athlete A.
I haven't seen most of these, and I hear great things about Collective. Time is really well done. I actually thought it would be the frontrunner a few months ago, but it's only won the NSFC and NBR, although it did get a PGA nom and tied for a Gotham. Shockingly, My Octopus Teacher got the PGA, ACE Eddie, and BAFTA, as well as the sole DGA nom among this group, so I think it's the frontrunner! Otherwise, Crip Camp got the IDA and Indie. I am excited that the nature film is resonating.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father - will win
Nomadland - spoiler, should win
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger
Snub: First Cow. Like Leave No Trace - a similar fave, where the USC Scripter got it right, and the Oscars didn't. Also Bad Education.
White Tiger didn't receive any precursors, other than a WGA nom, so I don't think it'll be that. Nomadland won the USC Scripter - which have overlapped with the Oscar winner 8 times in the last 10 years, and 10 times in the last 13 (a straight run, actually, from 2010-2017), but that streak was broken in 2018 when the scripter went to Leave No Trace (*SOB*)/ the Oscar to Blackkklansman (weird that then Da 5 Bloods is now so snubbed) and 2019 where it was Little Women/JoJo Rabbit (sure! fine! Really glad it wasn't Little Women!) So... will it return? The vérité style makes me think not, as I think some voters will think, 'how much of Swankie's dialogue was really scripted?' (I don't think all the voters read all the screenplays. Just a hunch.) How much does improvisation play into consideration here?
Borat won the WGA, but the WGA has weird eligibility rules, and it didn't receive a single other precursor, so I don't think it'll get it? Then again - this is how I talked myself out of listing it for a nomination. The most famous bits are unscripted, right? I mean, if you're responding to Giuliani... But - as we'll see below, the Oscars sometimes reward bold in the screenplay category...
The BAFTA went to the Father, and I think that since it's unlikely to get anything else (unless it spoils in best actor), folks may throw their support behind it here? Plus it sounds like it was a really excellent adaptation.
Best Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari - should win
Promising Young Woman - will win
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - spoiler
Snub: Never Rarely Sometimes Always. Also Another Round, Ammonite
Much, much easier. Promising Young Woman won the WGA, BAFTA, CCA, and Indie, along with the LAFC. Minari won the NBR, and Chicago 7 the GG. I'm throwing Chicago 7 in as a spoiler, because Sorkin, but I think this is where Promising takes an Oscar. (It shouldn't! HUGE PLOT ISSUES HERE.)
Best Original Song
Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah). Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II - spoiler
Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7). Music by Daniel Pemberton
Húsavík (Eurovision Song Contest). Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson - should win
Io Si (Seen) (The Life Ahead). Music by Diane Warren
Speak Now (One Night in Miami). Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth - will win
Snub: Queen Bee! Otherwise: What A Life - Another Round & Turntables - All In: The Fight for Democracy. You coulda had Janelle performing at the Oscars!
Hmm - I really thought this would be Leslie Odom still riding the Hamilton wave. (Wouldn't it have been fun if Hamilton had had a theatrical release. How much fun to do a Hamiltunes!) But he's just had the CCA, the GG went to Diane Warren for the Life Ahead, and the guild went to Daniel Pemberton for Chicago 7. I think it still goes to Speak Now?? (although I think that song could use a little more range? None of the songs are really big Oscar ballads this year, are they? Húsavík actually is probably the closest typical Oscar song? And the award probably should go to Eurovision, given that it's a musical...) (I don't actually think it has a hope in hell, being a comedy.)
(Also - if they are performing all the songs - as I assume they are - how will they do that one? A Christine in Phantom thing? Last note is just a recording?)
Best Original Score
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul - will win
Snub: Athlete A, Emma (I listen to it so much!), Wolfwalkers, Ema, First Cow, Time (ineligible), Ammonite, Shirley, Nomadland (ineligible), & Proxima. Lotsa good music out there.
I will eat my hat if Soul doesn't win.
(Although I wonder if folks upset at the Da 5 Bloods snubs will vote for it here.)
Best Sound
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul - spoiler
Sound of Metal - will win
Snub: Proxima
Sound of Metal. It's not the best, but it's obviously going to be the one people think of. It won the BAFTA and the CAS and was nominated for 3 editing awards. Soul won both guilds for animated, but I just don't see an animated film winning this category, or it winning sound on top of score. Greyhound won editing for foley, and News of the World similarly got 3 edit nods, but I don't think they have a chance here.
Best Costume Design
Emma - should win
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - will win
Mulan - spoiler
Pinocchio Massimo
Snub: Ammonite. The Personal History of David Copperfield. Also Birds of Prey and Promising Young Woman which were nommed and won, respectively, for contemporary design at the guild awards.
It hurts my heart that Emma is unlikely to win this. Sniffles. But Ma Rainey won the period guild award, the CCA and BAFTA, so I think it's getting it. While Emma could contend as a fellow period guild nominee, plus being SO well known for its costumes, Mulan won the guild for fantasy, so it also has a chance.
Best Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank - spoiler
News of the World
Nomadland - should win, will win
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Snub: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, First Cow, Gunda, Ema
Another one that hurts my heart. I looooove Joshua James Richards cinematography (oof The Rider and God's Own Country). But Mank has won the guild award and the BAFTA. And it is very eye-catching, lovely, black and white. Plus, as it recalls the studio heyday, I do think that Hollywood self-love may come into play here. This is all sounding very backhanded, because I'm rooting for Nomadland, but I do like Erik Messerschmidt's work, particularly on Mindhunter. But since Mank is his first feature, and some Oscar voters loved the Rider, maybe... I'm talking myself into picking the one I want. But it could very well be Mank.
(The only other one with a shot here is Judas, which is nice work, too.)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma - should win
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - will win
Mank
Pinocchio - spoiler
Snub: Birds of Prey, Ammonite
Again - Ma Rainey takes it. It won the guild period make-up AND the guild period hairstyling, the CCA, and the BAFTA. Pinocchio won for fx, which is often a favorite for the oscars. And again - Emma should win it.
Best Production Design
The Father - spoiler
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank - will win
News of the World
Tenet
Snub: EMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMA. HOW IS EMMA NOT UP FOR THIS. Also The Personal History of David Copperfield
Mank won the ADG for period, the CCA, the BAFTA, and the LAFC. Tenet won the ADG for fantasy, but I don't think it'll get it. News and Ma Rainey has some prior noms, including the period ADG. The Father seems to have some real love, so even though it wasn't up for an ADG at all, I think it could spoil.
Best Visual Effects
Love and Monsters - spoiler
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet - will win
Snub: Proxima, World of Tomorrow 3
Probably Tenet? It won the CCA, BAFTA and tied the VES guild with Midnight Sky. I have no opinions on what should win here, as I have not bothered to see any of these!
Then again - Love and Monsters seems to have some real support behind it! Speaking of the love of old Hollywood, the fact that this apes Ray Harryhausen has given it a shot, I think.
Best Animated Short Film
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You - will win
Opera - should win, spoiler
Yes-People
Snub: Souvenir souvenir, which won at the Annies. I also really loved KKUM (annie nom), and was suprisingly charmed by the Snail and the Whale, which was on the shortlist. Also great: My Friend Who Shines in the Night, Wandaland, and Pitch Black Panacea. Short animation is really where it's at.
And then Burrow is up.
If Anything Happens was really uneven to my mind. But I don't know anyone who wasn't destroyed by it/bawled their eyes out, and it is a timely subject matter. I just really loved Opera - I thought it was so clever and I can't imagine the work the complexity of the animation must have taken. And animated short *is* sometimes a wildcard... (The indieWire anonymous director described it as 'a Hieronymus Bosch painting come to life.')
Yes-People and Burrow are too slight (if they were going to go with the Pixar animator program, they should have gone with Weekends). And I didn't think Genius Loci held together well enough. So even though this is the shorts category, I think it's too experimental.
Best Live-Action Short Film
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present - will win
Two Distant Strangers - spoiler
White Eye - should win
Snub: The Devil's Harmony (which won the short film jury award at Sundance 2020, best British short at the London Critics Circle, and was a BIFA nominee), In the Company of Insects, Marcy Learns Something New. Da Yie - which made the short list, was about on par with The Present and Two Distant Strangers, I thought.
Hmm - the Present won the BAFTA (but for British short), and I wonder if it might win for the Palestinian subject matter. The Letter Room seems too glib and, while I liked Feeling Through, I think the Oscars like films here that are About Things. So while it touches on homelessness, disability, and kindness, I think the Academy is more likely to go to a film about Palestine, White Cops Murdering Black People, or Don't Call the Police on Black People White People. Of those three, White Eye is the most affecting, subtle, and technically accomplished (I LITERALLY DIDN'T REALIZE IT WAS A SINGLE TAKE AND I LOVE SINGLE TAKES), so I hope it wins. But I think either The Present or Two Distant Strangers will have it. Two Distant Strangers is more of the moment, but it was also a little wobbly, I thought.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Colette - spoiler
A Concerto Is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha - will win
Snub: Still not sure how No Crying at the Dinner Table didn't make it in.
I think A Love Song for Latasha is the frontrunner - it won the CinemaEye and is a critics favorite. It also made the DocNYC shortlist along with Hunger Ward (CCA nom) and Do Not Split. None of these were nommed for an IDA. Hunger Ward seems divisive, but perhaps it appeals broadly?
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