Well, I did terribly on the noms this year, so who knows how this'll go. Also, I planned to do this on Saturday, but I found out SFFilm had a contest ending at midnight, so this'll also likely be faster than most years. Maybe that'll be good? More gut decisions, less overthinking?
Also - I'm not watching this shitshow. If you aren't broadcasting editing and score, I DON'T FUCKING CARE. WHAT DO YOU THINK MAKES A MOVIE A MOVIE. Fuck you forever ABC.Update 3/27: What a boring show (assault aside). I got 20/23, 22/23 with spoilers (and while knowing Belfast was the smart spoiler, but simply refusing.) I came in 1974/9498 on gold derby, which isn't horrible. But basically the only winner not predicted by the pundits was the Windshield Wiper, which was still the second most likely. (And I'm THRILLED it won. It and Jane were kind of the only two I cared about.)
Look - I've loved the Oscars (or love/hated) for years. Everything about tonight was disgraceful. It was STILL longer than the last three shows and it disrespected the people making the films. And given how many people I saw on twitter either not watching or declaring the oscars irrelevant from here on out, I hope the Academy does a hard reset going into next year. (Here is a good thread more eloquently expressing those same thoughts.)
Belfast
CODA - spoiler, did win
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog - will win, should win
West Side Story
If anyone makes a potent movie soon about the ways that men, especially, tangle up intimacy with hostility and protection with violence, I hope it wins many awards!
— Nick Davis (@NicksFlickPicks) March 28, 2022
In the end, I think it breaks down as:
Belfast - original screenplay
CODA - supporting actor, adapted screenplay, picture
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car - foreign
Dune - edit, cinematography, production design, vfx, score, sound
King Richard - actor
Licorice Pizza -
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog -
West Side Story - supporting actress
Apparently the money is on CODA for picture and Belfast for original screenplay (excuse me while I throw up a little), but it looks like all my other picks line up with the pundits. I may be taking myself out of the running for a SFFilm cinevisa (finally! The first oscar betting I really care about), but I CANNOT bring myself to put Belfast down for screenplay. Others must have been as bored as I was! (I can no longer find the tweet, but whoever said 'screenwriters please consider you may not be the most interesting character in your own story' was correct!)
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car - spoiler
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog - should win, will win, did win
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye - will win, did win
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers - spoiler
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer - should win
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog - spoiler
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick... Boom! - should win
Will Smith, King Richard - will win, did win
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story - will win, did win
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog - should win
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA - will win, did win
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast, did win
Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don't Look Up - spoiler
Zach Baylin, King Richard
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza - will win
Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World - should win
ugggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Best Adapted ScreenplayI know a lot of shit went down last night but lmao they really gave Kenneth Branagh a SCREENPLAY Oscar for that movie
— David Sims (@davidlsims) March 28, 2022
Siân Heder, CODA - will win, did win
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth, Dune
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (maybe should win?)
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog - should win, spoiler
Best Cinematography
Dune - will win, did win
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog - should win, spoiler
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Film Editing
Don't Look Up
Dune - will win, did win
King Richard
The Power of the Dog - spoiler
Tick, Tick... Boom! - should win
Best Animated Feature Film
Encanto - will win, did win
Flee - should win
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Best Animated Short Film
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin - will win
The Windshield Wiper - should win, spoiler, did win
Best Live-Action Short Film
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye - will win, did win
On My Mind
Please Hold
Best International Feature Film
Drive My Car (Japan) - Will win, did win
Flee (Denmark) - spoiler
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) - should win
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee- should win, spoiler
Summer of Soul - will win, did win
Writing with Fire
Best Documentary Short Subject
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball - will win, did win
Three Songs for Benazir - spoiler
When We Were Bullies
Best Original Score
Nicholas Britell, Don't Look Up
Hans Zimmer, Dune - will win, did win
Germaine Franco, Encanto
Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers
Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog - should win, spoiler
Best Original Song
"Be Alive" from King Richard — Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
"Dos Oruguitas" from Encanto — Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
"Down to Joy" from Belfast — Music and Lyric by Van Morrison - spoiler
"No Time to Die" from No Time to Die — Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell - will win, should win, did win
"Somehow You Do" from Four Good Days — Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
Best Sound
Belfast
Dune - will win, did win
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story - spoiler, should?
Best Costume Design
Cruella - will win, did win
Cyrano
Dune - spoiler
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America
Cruella - spoiler
Dune - should win
The Eyes of Tammy Faye - will win, did win
House of Gucci
Best Production Design
Dune - will win, did win
Nightmare Alley - spoiler
The Power of the Dog - should win
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Visual Effects
Dune - will win, did win
Free Guy
No Time to Die - spoiler
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
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