Also - I'm not watching this shitshow. If you aren't broadcasting editing and score, I DON'T FUCKING CARE. WHAT DO YOU THINK MAKES A MOVIE A MOVIE. Fuck you forever ABC.
I can't believe ABC cares more about some viewer they think will be enticed to watch by Shaun White than someone like me:
Past years:
2020: 17
2019: 19 (Bong!)
2018: 20
2017: 15 (Moonlight!)
2016: 17
2015: 21
2014: 20
2013: 18
2012: 17
2011: 17
2010: 17
My best of 2021 list is just Roy Kent saying fuck 10 different ways.
— Brianna Ashby (@brianna_ashby) December 15, 2021
Belfast
CODA - spoiler
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog - will win, should win
West Side Story
Well, this was Power of the Dog's to lose, and I do believe it may have been lost in the last two weeks. *sigh* It certainly still has a good shot. It won the BAFTA and CCA. But CODA won the SAG (Dog wasn't up) and the PGA. The bets are on CODA, but I wonder if it's too... Disney? to win. (And listen - I wouldn't be mad at a CODA win. Twitter is mad, but I liked it a lot and far more than I expected! As David Ehrlich put it, "the specific pleasure of watching a good movie get away with the kind of bullshit that usually makes you want to vomit." It's true! It shouldn't work as well as it does! At least we're no longer discussing a Belfast win!) But I'm going with BAFTA over PGA on this one. Maybe dumb, but...
In the end, I think it breaks down as:
Belfast
CODA - supporting actor, adapted screenplay
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car - foreign
Dune - edit, cinematography, production design, vfx, score, sound
King Richard - actor
Licorice Pizza - original screenplay
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog - picture, director
West Side Story - supporting actress
Apparently the money is on CODA for picture and Belfast for original screenplay (excuse me while I throw up a little), but it looks like all my other picks line up with the pundits. I may be taking myself out of the running for a SFFilm cinevisa (finally! The first oscar betting I really care about), but I CANNOT bring myself to put Belfast down for screenplay. Others must have been as bored as I was! (I can no longer find the tweet, but whoever said 'screenwriters please consider you may not be the most interesting character in your own story' was correct!)
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car - spoiler
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog - should win, will win.
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
*sigh again* I am VERY worried Jane may have lost this at the finish line. (WHYYY diss Serena?!?! Just be quiet in the last weeks of voting!) But as she's won the DGA, CCA, and BAFTA, I'm sticking with her.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye - will win
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers - spoiler
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer - should win
I think we're going with a "body of work" slash "MOST acting" award this year. Jessica's got the SAG and CCA. Penelope got the NSFC, and Olivia the Gotham. (BAFTA went to Joanna Scanlan.) Justice for Renate!
(Look - I really like Jessica Chastain! I just think this is an example of an actor not getting it for their best work. See Kate Winslet in the Reader.)
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog - spoiler
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick... Boom! - should win
Will Smith, King Richard - will win
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Benedict & Andrew will probably have some other nominations in their future. (Will has the SAG, BAFTA, CCA)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story - will win
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog - should win
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ariana is great in WSS, and I'm always happy to see a musical get its due, so I'm totally happy for her to win. I'm also happy Kirsten Dunst got a great role and I hope she gets more. (Jessie Buckley might be my should, because I love her so much, but I have yet to get to Lost Daughter. Maybe by Sunday??) (Ariana has the SAG, BAFTA, CCA)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA - will win
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
I'm SO happy Troy will win this. He's so great in CODA. (Kodi Smit-McPhee was phenomenal in Dog and I hope he gets another nomination in the future.) Troy has the SAG, BAFTA, CCA.
Best Original Screenplay
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don't Look Up - spoiler
Zach Baylin, King Richard
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza - will win
Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World - should win
One of the tightest races! Belfast got the CCA, Licorice Pizza got the BAFTA, and Don't Look up got the WGA. I *think* the old hollywood bits pushes Licorice over the edge. Although the Oscars also love to feel progressive while doing nothing, so I could see it going to Don't Look Up. Worst Person should absolutely get it. What an incredible film. I love it when Oscar gets it right unexpectedly.
If Belfast wins, we riot.
(Or do as Alex does)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Siân Heder, CODA - will win
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth, Dune
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (maybe should win?)
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog - should win, spoiler
CODA won the WGA (although Dog & Lost Daughter (& maybe Drive my Car?) were ineligible), and the BAFTA. Power of the Dog got the CCA. Lost Daughter got the Scripter, the Gotham, and the Indie. The Scripter used to be the best predictor until my beloved Leave No Trace (& First Cow). So now - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Best Cinematography
Dune - will win
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog - should win, spoiler
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
GOD I want Ari to get it for Power of the Dog (and she did get the CCA), but Dune has the ASC and BAFTA. And I think all those vast desert-scapes will take it.
Best Film Editing
Don't Look Up
Dune - will win
King Richard
The Power of the Dog - spoiler
Tick, Tick... Boom! - should win
WHY IS TICK TICK BOOM UP HERE AND NOT BEST PICTURE (but I've already thrown that tantrum.)
This is another close one! (Again - why is ABC not showing the interesting races?!) Tick Tick Boom and King Richard won the ACE eddies, but I don't think either has the momentum here/in best picture, so I think it'll go to Dune. Dune could go one of two ways: one - it wins because it nearly had the most nominations and this goes along with that, or two - people felt it was overly long, and Power of the Dog gets it with the momentum that gave it more nominations than Dune (unexpectedly). There aren't any other precursors to rely on! (CCA went WSS, BAFTA went No Time to Die 🙄)
The Indies gave this to Zola, which was absolutely correct. BritIndies went Souvenir pt II. If only the Oscars were so interesting.
Best Animated Feature Film
Encanto - will win
Flee - should win
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Encanto has the PGA, BAFTA, ACE Eddie, ADG, VES, and CAS.
Best Animated Short Film
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin - will win
The Windshield Wiper - should win, spoiler
UGH. I HATED Bestia. It won the Annie. Affairs of the Art was nominated for a BAFTA and has 25 awards so far, so it may be well known (although more so than Robin Robin, which is a family heart-warmer on Netflix?) The charming family film from England usually doesn't win, but in a year where people relied more on at home screening, I wonder if Robin Robin gets it? (It is more interesting than the Gruffalo entries.)
It should go to Windshield Wiper and animated short does sometimes go to something less staid than other Oscars, so maybe it has a shot??
(Let's all rewatch A Morning Stroll!)
Best Live-Action Short Film
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye - will win.
On My Mind
Please Hold
I have not seen the shorts programs this year! So I'm going on very little here and have no thoughts on what should win (yet). My guess is that the Long Goodbye gets an edge because Riz Ahmed is in it. 🤷♀️
Best International Feature Film
Drive My Car (Japan) - Will win
Flee (Denmark) - spoiler
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) - should win
(I actually also need to get to Drive My Car, and I hear it's brilliant. But I loved Worst Person.) Drive has the BAFTA, CCA, Indie and Gotham.
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee- should win, spoiler
Summer of Soul - will win
Writing with Fire
Bah, humbug. I did not care for Summer of Soul, but it has the PGA, BAFTA, CCA, ACE Eddie, LAFC, NBR, and CAS. Flee has the NSFC, IDA, Gotham, NYFCC, Cinemaeye, and EFA. (Attica has the DGA).
Attica does seem to be very popular, so I wouldn't be too surprised if it upset, but I think Summer of Soul is most likely.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball - will win
Three Songs for Benazir - spoiler
When We Were Bullies
Queen of Basketball seems like a crowdpleaser. 🤷♀️ It also has the CCA. Three Songs won the Cinemaeye.
Best Original Score
Nicholas Britell, Don't Look Up
Hans Zimmer, Dune - will win
Germaine Franco, Encanto
Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers
Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog - should win, spoiler
Dune has the BAFTA, CCA, and GG. Parallel Mothers won the LAFC. Dog is the only other one with 3+ nods (BAFTA, CCA, GG, LAFC runner up). I suppose some people might want to give it to LMM (but also he'll keep trying?)
Best Original Song
"Be Alive" from King Richard — Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
"Dos Oruguitas" from Encanto — Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
"Down to Joy" from Belfast — Music and Lyric by Van Morrison - spoiler
"No Time to Die" from No Time to Die — Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell - will win, should win
"Somehow You Do" from Four Good Days — Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
Billie will get it. I like her. She won the CCA and GG and I think this is the best of all the shortlisted songs (although Annette should be nominated!!) I'll be sad if older voters go for Van Morrison. I don't think people will go for Dos Oruguitas, since other songs from Encanto were more beloved, unless they just want to vote for the film over the song chosen.
Best Sound
Belfast
Dune - will win
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story - spoiler, should?
Dune won foley for the editing guild and the CAS for the mixing guild, and the BAFTA, so I think it's a lock here. I'm not yet sure who I think should win. I think musicals often have an advantage, and WSS was good, I also thought Dog was good. Surprised the Matrix didn't make it in here. (WSS won the music for the MPSE, so I'm putting it as a spoiler, although I think it's unlikely.)
Best Costume Design
Cruella - will win
Cyrano
Dune - spoiler
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Cruella won the BAFTA, CCA, and guild for period (which is the best oscar predictor, although Dune won the fantasy.) Dune also has a lot of guild support, so I'm putting the spoiler there.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America
Cruella - spoiler
Dune - should win
The Eyes of Tammy Faye - will win
House of Gucci
Tammy Faye won the CCA and BAFTA, Coming 2 America won three guild awards, but I think it's too under the radar to win here, whereas Cruella won period makeup at the guild.
Best Production Design
Dune - will win
Nightmare Alley - spoiler
The Power of the Dog - should win
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Dune has the CCA, BAFTA, and the fantasy ADG. Nightmare has the period ADG. I'm glad Dog made it in. That house!
Best Visual Effects
Dune - will win
Free Guy
No Time to Die - spoiler
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Dune won the VES, CCA, and BAFTA. No Time is the only other one with three noms.
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