Update 3/12: Let's re-use Lydia here. As expected, the two best nominated films walked away with nothing. I did very badly! My 2nd worst year, and not in a fun, 'Moonlight the worthy film upsets' way. 16/23. BUT! 21/23 with spoilers, so only Production Design was a real 'upset' and I had that in third place, alongside Brendan for Actor (and once Elvis lost makeup and costume, it became clear Austin wasn't going to win, either.)
[Whoops! Forgot to post the links to past years: 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21? I currently match most Oscar pundits on 17/23 categories, so that'll probably be what I get for 2022. (WEIRDLY, the ESPN contest has WILDLY different picks than most award sites, so I'm curious to see it that populism translates in what wins, or if I have a chance of doing particularly well there because I'm picking more of the Oscar-watchers picks.)]
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin - Spoiler
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Will Win, Did win
The Fabelmans
Tár - Should Win
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin - Spoiler
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Will Win, Did win
The Fabelmans
Tár - Should Win
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Will Win, Did win
Tár - Should win
Top Gun: Maverick - spoiler
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett (Tár) - Spoiler, Should Win
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will win, Did win
Cate Blanchett (Tár) - Spoiler, Should Win
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will win, Did win
Austin Butler (Elvis) - Spoiler
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) - Will Win, Should Win
Brendan Fraser (The Whale) - Did win
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) - Spoiler, should win
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will Win, Did win
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) - Spoiler, should win
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will Win, Did win
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) - Spoiler
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will Win, should win, Did win
Best Director
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) - Will Win, Did win
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) - Spoiler
Todd Field (Tár) - Should Win
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell - spoiler
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - Rian Johnson
Living - Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverick - Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
Women Talking - Sarah Polley - Will Win, Did win
♥️
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh - Spoiler
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert - Will Win, Did win
The Fabelmans - Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner
Tár - Todd Field - Should Win
Triangle of Sadness - Ruben Östlund
Best Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio - Will Win, Did win
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On - Should Win, Spoiler
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Best International Film
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) - Will Win, Did win
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) - spoiler
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes - Should win
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed - spoiler
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny - Will Win, Did win
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front - Will Win, Did win
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis - Spoiler, Should Win
Empire of Light
Tár
Le sigh.
Oh hey, I had forgotten about this analysis of the nominees: https://twitter.com/SadHillDevan/status/1627772160008945664
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front - Will Win, Did win
Babylon - Spoiler (ugh ugh ugh)
The Banshees of Inisherin - should win
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Best Original Song
"Applause" from Tell It Like a Woman (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
"Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick (Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop)
"Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler) - spoiler
"Naatu Naatu" from RRR (Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose) - Will Win, Should Win, Did win
"This Is a Life" from Everything Everywhere All at Once (Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne)
This was 100% the best part of the whole shebang.
All Quiet on the Western Front - Spoiler
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick - Will Win, should win, Did win
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water - Will Win, Did win
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick - should win, spoiler
Best Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - spoiler, Did win
Elvis - Will win
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front - for what? dirt?
The Batman - should win? who knows
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis - Will Win
The Whale - Spoiler, Did win
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front - again, dirt? (It's late and I'm feeling salty.) Did win *side-eye*
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon - Will Win
Elvis - Spoiler
The Fabelmans
Best Documentary Short Subject
The Elephant Whisperers - Spoiler, Did win
Haulout - Will Win, Should Win
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Best Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse - Spoiler, Did win
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks - Will Win, Should Win
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Best Live-Action Short
An Irish Goodbye - Spoiler, Did win
Ivalu
Le Pupille - Will Win, Should Win
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
And how I think all the Best Picture nominees will shake out:
All Quiet on the Western Front - Cinematography, Foreign, Score, Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water - VFX
The Banshees of Inisherin -Actor (but v. possibly not)
Elvis -Costume, Makeup
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Directing, Editing, Original Screenplay
The Fabelmans
Tár - Booooo
Top Gun: Maverick - Sound
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking - Adapted Screenplay
Avatar: The Way of Water - VFX
The Banshees of Inisherin -
Elvis -
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Directing, Editing, Original Screenplay
The Fabelmans
Tár - Booooo
Top Gun: Maverick - Sound
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking - Adapted Screenplay
I stand by what I said about it being boring to have two films sweep.
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