Oscars follow-up

20/24 for me. Not great, but but not terrible. Got Live Action Short, Documentary, Visual Effects, and Best Picture wrong.

Best Picture
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird” - should win
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water” - did win
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - will win

How DID the fish fucking movie become the safe pick? (Excuse me. Amphibian-fucking movie.)

First film since Braveheart to win without a SAG ensemble nomination.

Lead Actress
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - will win, did win
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” - should win
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Lead Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name” - Should win
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” - will win, did win
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” - will win, did win
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” - should win
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - should win, will win, did win

Director
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan - should win
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro - will win, did win

Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco - should win, will win, did win
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Adapted Screenplay
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory - will win, did win
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber - should win
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Original Screenplay
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele - will win, did win
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig - should win
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

Cinematography
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins - should win, will win, did win
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Best Documentary Feature
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail”
“Faces Places” - Will Win
“Icarus” - did win
“Last Men in Aleppo”
“Strong Island”

Whoa. Anti-Russian sentiment?

Best Foreign Language Film
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile) - will win, did win
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)

Film Editing
“Baby Driver”
“Dunkirk” - Should win, will win, did win
“I, Tonya”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Sound Editing
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk” - should win, will win, did win
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Sound Mixing
“Baby Driver” - should win
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk” - will win, did win
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Production Design
“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau - should win, will win, did win

Original Score
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood - should win
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat - will win, did win
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

Original Song
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens - should win
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez - will win, did win
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

Makeup and Hair
“Darkest Hour” - should win, will win, did win
“Victoria and Abdul”
“Wonder”

Costume Design
“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges - should win, will win, did win
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049 - should win, did win
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes - will win

Animated Short
“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant - will win. Ugh. - did win
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon - should win.
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel - will win, did win
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

Best Live Action Short Film
“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk - will win
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton - did win
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

2018 Oscars

This is a fun year! I don't expect to do particularly well (as always, I'd like to beat 22/24 for a personal best). BUT! It is more fun to have Best Picture so up in the air. As always; will win/should win. I'm thrilled a larger, younger, more diverse voting body is making for some interesting races.

Best Picture
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird” - should win
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - will win

Hmm. Can Shape win without the SAG ensemble nomination? No one has done it since Braveheart. Will voters note that everyone is winning somewhere else except Lady Bird, and go that way (or will it score enough #2 votes to emerge triumphant?) I think the most likely winner is still Three Billboards, based on the precursors. But Shape had the most nominations (plus the ode-to-hollywood appeal), and Get Out voters are probably not going to vote for Three Billboards (and visa versa). So perhaps Lady Bird could squeak in there, if the top votes are split?

I have a tough time with this one because the two frontrunners (Shape and Billboards) are from two of my favorite artists, but I don't think either is their strongest work. Shape of Water is bizarrely not a horror work by del Toro, in a year when a horror film finally cracked the noms! And Three Billboards is SO good in some respects, and then just falls short in a couple of areas. The other two in contention at all are Get Out and Lady Bird.

Three Billboards took both top BAFTAs, the SAG ensemble award, and the GG for drama. Shape of Water took the PGA - usually my forecaster. Lady Bird took the GG for Comedy, and the NSFC. Get Out took the Indie (over CMBYN!) The question is, will the many noms and PGA take it? Or will the growing gap in membership between the PGA and academy mean something else will win over Shape? I think Three Billboards edges it. The voting community is not twitter, and it's been pretty beloved since Toronto...

Overlooked: The Florida Project, I Tonya. Wonder Woman.

Of note, this is where thing are likely to shake out overall for everything else:
“Call Me by Your Name” - adapted screenplay
“Darkest Hour” - actor, makeup
“Dunkirk” - editing, sound x2
“Get Out” - original screenplay
“Lady Bird” - 0 (wah!)
“Phantom Thread” - costumes
“The Post” - 0
“The Shape of Water” - director, production design, score (ick)
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - actress, supporting actor

Lead Actress
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - will win
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” - should win
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

I love Frances McDormand, too. I'm not at all mad about her winning this.

Overlooked: Vicky Krieps, Florence Pugh.

Lead Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name” - Should win
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” - Will win
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Look - all four acting frontrunners won the SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globe. These are all pretty much locks.

Overlooked: Josh O'Connor.

Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” - will win
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” - should win
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Although I am thrilled that I Tonya will be getting SOMETHING.

Overlooked: Holly Hunter, the best part of the Big Sick.

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - should win, will win

Look, I love Willem Dafoe in the Florida Project, and I wish that film had received more love (and Woody Harrelson & Richard Jenkins are great!). But... it's my boy Sam. He deserves all his acclaim.

Overlooked: Michael Stuhlbarg.

Director
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan - should win
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro - will win

I love all five of these humans. One of the two best Director Q&As I've ever seen was with Guillermo. I'm thrilled for him to win. Shape is his most accomplished film. It's funny though - director has recently gone to the most complex film, which in this case would be Nolan's. That said, Guillermo has the DGA, GG, and BAFTA, so...

Overlooked: Luca Guadagnino.

Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco - should win, will win
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

With the caveat that I have not seen Loving Vincent or the Breadwinner yet. But Coco was lovely. Plus, it has won the PGA, BAFTA, GG, Ace Eddie, NBR, *11* Annie Awards, VES, *and* CAS awards, plus most of the critics groups. Easy lock.

Adapted Screenplay
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory - will win
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber - should win
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

I love James Ivory. And I think CMBYN works well, but from what I've heard, the director saved the script. So while I won't be mad at CMBYN getting something, and lord knows James Ivory deserves a career achievement award, I don't know that it *should* get screenplay. Molly's Game was 80% great (and I wish Jessica Chastain were up instead of Meryl), but I'll give this to the Disaster Artist, which was surprisingly good (not mad about Franco being left out, though.)

CMBYN has won the Scripter, BAFTA, and WGA (with no eligibility weirdness this year), so this seems pretty sure.

Original Screenplay
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele - will win
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig - should win
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

Hmph. This one pains me. Martin is my favorite playwright (I just re-watched Hangmen yesterday and god, he's brilliant.) But I'm giving this to Greta by a hair because Lady Bird is so note-perfect, and Three Billboards, is like 75% brilliant.

Get Out won the WGA (plus a couple of critics groups), and I think it has the lead in this category, as it isn't likely to win other things, and the academy would like to reward Peele's ideas here. That said, Three Billboards won the GG/BAFTA. (And its advertising did play up McDonagh's rhythms.)

Overlooked: Phantom Thread.

Cinematography
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins - should win, will win
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Is it my favorite Deakins cinematography of all time? No. (That would probably be the Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.) But I love him, and his work in Blade Runner is great and GIVE IT TO HIM ALREADY. The others are also all great, and I can't wait till a woman wins this one. Hoyte van Hoytema deserves some special commendation for all that IMAX spitfire footage. Deakins has the guild award, BAFTA, and a couple of critics groups so far.

Overlooked: Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread.

Best Documentary Feature
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail”
“Faces Places” - Will Win
“Icarus”
“Last Men in Aleppo”
“Strong Island”

I'm still not over Jane's snub. Jane won EVERYTHING ELSE WITH GOOD REASON. Including the PGA. The four times Jane didn't win, Face Places did. Hrmph.

Best Foreign Language Film
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile) - will win
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)

I have no opinion on what should win here. The Square has a pretty good shot, but I feel like there's been a real push on campaigning for Fantastic Woman the last couple of months. Overlooked is probably BPM/First they Killed my Father/Thelma, but I've yet to see them, so...

The Square won the EFA, but Fantastic Woman won the Indie.

Film Editing
“Baby Driver”
“Dunkirk” - Should win, will win
“I, Tonya”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

I'm still pissed I, Tonya is up for editing and not best picture. I think this is Dunkirk's award, with the time puzzle box structure being the type of impressive editing lay people notice. Plus Dunkirk won the drama ACE Eddie. I think the closest competition is I, Tonya, which took the comedy Eddie, and won at the Indies, and which relies so much on the edit to strike the right tone. Baby Driver won the BAFTA, and tied with Dunkirk for the CCAs, but I think it has a better shot in sound mixing, just because it isn't as serious a film, even though it also has those flashy car chase/song edits.

Sound Editing
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk” - should win, will win
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Jesus Christ those planes are terrifying.

Dunkirk won the edit guild award for score, and had two other nominations. Blade Runner won effects/foley in sound editing with two other nominations. Baby Driver and Shape of Water each had 3 noms, no wins. Interestingly, Baby Driver is the clear 2nd favorite among prognosticators, above Blade Runner. (The other guild winners were War for Planet of the Apes (dialogue) and Greatest Showman (for Musical).

Sound Mixing
“Baby Driver” - should win
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk” - will win.
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

WHY IS PHANTOM THREAD NOT IN THIS CATEGORY. THE TOAST, PEOPLE.

I'm VERY torn on this category. Musicals often win mixing, so Baby Driver *might* pull ahead of Dunkirk and split the category here. And I think the way the background noise was mixed into the soundtrack is quite clever, which is why it might pull out a win here (it's clearly admired, with its surprise multiple nominations.) But popular opinion is that Dunkirk will take both. And Dunkirk did take the CAS, plus the BAFTA for both.

Production Design
“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau - should win, will win

I wonder if Sarah and Katie do personal homes?

Shape won the period ADG (although Blade Runner took fantasy.) Plus Shape took the BAFTA and the CCA. The other 3 were all period/fantasy nominees for ADG.

Overlooked: Logan (the contemporary ADG winner).

Original Score
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood - should win
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat - will win
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

Shape of Water is... not Alexandre Desplat's best work. But he's taken the BAFTA, GG, and CCA. Jonny Greenwood only took the LAFC.

Overlooked: Jane, Blade Runner. Probably Good Time.

Original Song
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens - should win
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez - will win
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

This is a tricky one. Coco is a bit of an earworm, in a clearly-very-loved film about the love of music. This is Me is from a proper (and very popular) musical, so I could see the old guard wanting to play to that, even if Pasek and Paul can't write a song to save their lives. Plus, Keala Settle is awesome. This is me took the GG, Remember Me only took the CCA. Maybe politics will shine through with Stand Up for Something. Or maybe folks will realize that Mudbound should get SOMETHING. Mystery of Love is easily the most well-liked among critics.

I think Remember Me Takes it. But This is Me could very easily spoil.

Overlooked: Visions of Gideon. But otherwise, Jump from Cynthia Erivo for Step? Tell Me How Long/Kristen Bell/Chasing Coral? Prayers for this World/Cher/Cries from Syria? Best I Can/Michael Cera and Sharon van Etten/Dina? Probably Evermore from Beauty and the Beast? (I haven't heard most of these.)

Makeup and Hair
“Darkest Hour” - should win, will win
“Victoria and Abdul”
“Wonder”

This is a category that could use 5. I, Tonya's hair? It's Pennywise? Guardians of the Galaxy? Blade Runner! Star Wars! Shape of Water! Atomic Blonde! Come on folks.

Darkest Hour won the period award and effects at the guild, the CCA, and the BAFTA.

Costume Design
“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges - should win, will win
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

My god. A year without Colleen Atwood.

Shape of Water pulled a *VERY* surprise upset in the period category at the guild awards, but Phantom Thread got the BAFTA and CCA. And the dresses are displayed so lovingly! How does it not take this one? The only other guild nominee in the group is Beauty and the Beat for fantasy.

Overlooked: Wonder Woman, I Tonya.

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049 - should win
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes - will win

I haven't seen Planet of the Apes 3, so I'm at a disadvantage here. Based on the first two, it should probably take it? It won the VES and CCA. Blade Runner took the BAFTA though, and that sex scene was really remarkable, not to mention memorable. I might be talking myself into thinking that Blade Runner takes this one. Hmm...

Overlooked: Okja, I assume? And Dunkirk, which won for supporting effects at the VES. Maybe also Valerian.

Animated Short
“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant - will win. Ugh.
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon - should win.
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

I LOVE GARDEN PARTY SO MUCH. Unfortunately, I think the smart money is on Dear Basketball (thank Glen Keane and John Williams), but I certainly hope Negative Space upsets (it's my second favorite).

[Speaking of the animated shorts, why on EARTH weren't all the highly commended shorts taken from the actual shortlist? I would have rather re-watched In a Heartbeat or Life Smartphone (a 2016 SFIFF pick), or seen Fox and the Whale, rather than that terrible racist dragon short.]

Dear Basketball won the Annie. Revolting Rhymes did get a special production honor from the Annies, and Negative Space also scored a nom there.

Overlooked: World of Tomorrow 2: The Burden of Other People's Thoughts.

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel - will win
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

All the docs I watched from the shortlist were left off here, so I have no opinion. I hear Heaven is the most liked, followed by Heroine and Traffic Stop. If it isn't Heaven, then I think it'll be Heroine.

Edith +Eddie won the IDA and was nominated for the CinemaEye (along with Heroine), so it could upset? It seems the most critically reviled, though.

Overlooked: *I* didn't like it, but The Rabbit Hunt, which won the CinemaEye. I'd say Ten Meter Tower, which was on the shortlist, and nominated for a CinemaEye.

Best Live Action Short Film
“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk - will win
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

Didn't get a chance to see these this year. I hear DeKalb is the most loved, and this was with voting closing before Parkland.  The Silent Child seems to be second-favorite among critics.

There are no precursors that include these, so... who knows. Overlooked: how about Cowboy Dave, which won the BAFTA? (Haven't seen it.)