Here's 2020 (84/118 outright, 110/118 with spoilers), here's 2019 (88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers), here's 2018 (91/121 outright, 113/121 with spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 with spoilers).
(I take some tiny solace in the thought that most people agree it was probably in 11th place, all things considered.)
79/120 outright, 108/120 with spoilers. Shocking. Just shocking.
The non-spoiler surprises (I did baaad this year):
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Director. Not a total surprise - BAFTA nom and NSFC winner.
- Judi Dench in supporting. Not too surprising: Judi. (Crying A LOT over Ruth Negga, who I (and I think everyone) thought was a lock.)
- Attica for doc. Really surprised it made it in over the Rescue.
- Worst Person for screenplay. SOOOOO THRILLED.
- Power of the Dog for Production Design. I thought about it, but it didn't have any precursors. THRILLED.
- Somehow you do for song. I knew better. I really did.
- Belfast for sound. Since it just got the one MPSE, I thought not. But I think the opening scene may have stuck with voters?
- Lead Me Home for doc short
- Boxballet for animated short
- Ala Kachuu - Take and Run, The Dress, or On My Mind for live action short. ???
Perfect categories: Best Actor, Animated. That's it. Rough year.
Best PictureThankfully back to 10, and the nom predictions are slightly exciting because no film got WGA/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble. (Although WGA is only somewhat of a precursor, because so many films are ineligible.)
Okay - locks. Those with a PGA & DGA:
1. Dune - 11 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA
2. Power of the Dog - 8 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, 3 SAGs (but not ensemble, which sucks), WGA ineligible (but up for a scripter)
3. Belfast - 6 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG
4. Licorice Pizza - 5 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA, 1 SAG
5. West Side Story - 5 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA, 1 SAG
Then less certain, but it did get a DGA debut nod, and I just have no objectivity here:
6. tick, tick... BOOM! - PGA, WGA, 1 SAG, DGA (deb)
And the PGA/WGA/ensembles:
7. CODA - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG
8. Don't Look Up - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble
9. King Richard - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG
Least likely, but has the PGA
10. Being the Ricardos - WGA, PGA, 2 SAGs
So yes. I am just picking the PGA nods here. But I'll explain why below.
Spoilers:
- House of Gucci - SAG ensemble, 2 SAGs. This is the most likely to spoil, imho, just because the acting branch is so strong in the Academy. I wouldn't mind it replacing Being the Ricardos.
- Nightmare Alley - WGA, 1 SAG, craft, CCA nom (only CCA nom that didn't overlap with PGA - swapped for Being the Ricardos.) I would have put this ahead of Being the Ricardos, but then... I saw it yesterday. 🤷♀️ And although the Shape of Water was loved, that was a better film? So I think the Sorkin love will carry Being the Ricardos (especially after Trial of the Chicago 7 went 0 for 6.).
- Lost Daughter - DGA (deb), (WGA ineligible), 1 SAG. I'd love for this to get in, but it seems unlikely. A chance at screenplay/actress, I think (supporting actress to spoil).
- Drive My Car - critically beloved & foreign films have broken the best picture barrier? (Yes, they get in every so often, but rarely.) Won the NSFC, LAFC, NYFC. I don't think it has the support Parasite did, but the expanded voting block has been skewing artsier recently, so.
And for the overall breakdown, I think we go:
Power of the Dog - edit, director, actor, s. actress, s. actor x2, adapted screenplay, cinematography, score (spoilers: sound); added: production design - 10 nods, possibly 11. 12!!! SO thrilled it's such a clear frontrunner. (And annoyed at myself - I thought about production design for how good the house was. Shoulda gone with my gut.)
Dune - edit, director, adapted screenplay, cinematography, costume, makeup, production design, visual effects, score, sound - 11 nods (hey! Just like the BAFTAs) 10 - Everything except director, which has to sting, but again: hard to argue with Drive My Car.
West Side Story - edit, director, s. actress, s. actor (boo), adapted screenplay (BOO), cinematography, costume, makeup, production design, sound (spoilers:, s. actress (other)) - 11 nods, possibly 12. 7 - Well this wildly underperformed from my expectations
Belfast - edit, director, s. actress, s. actor, cinematography (spoilers: s. actor (other), original screenplay, costume, makeup, production design, song); added: different supporting actress, sound - 6 nods, possibly 12. 7. Ha! Not too bad. I was so worried it would pick up a ton.
King Richard - actor, s. actress, original screenplay, song (spoiler: edit) - 5 nods, possibly 6. 6
Don't Look Up - original screenplay, score (spoiler: edit) - 3 nods, possibly 4. 4
Didn't have in this list (under spoilers for Best Pic): Drive My Car. 4 (pic, foreign, director, screenplay).
Ditto: Nightmare Alley. Sigh. 4 (pic, cinematography, costume, production design)
Licorice Pizza - edit, director, original screenplay (spoilers: actress, s. actor, production design) - 4 nods, possibly 7. 3
CODA - s. actor (spoilers: actress, adapted screenplay) - 2 nods, possibly 4. 3
Being the Ricardos - actress, actor, original screenplay, (spoilers: s. actor, score) - 4 nods, possibly 6. 3 (no Best Pic)
tick, tick... BOOM! - actor, adapted screenplay (please) (spoilers: edit (please please please), director, sound) - 3 nods, possibly 6. 2. (no Best Pic) They're two big ones, but still. Sniffles.
The rest (non-Best Picture) films are: Encanto-3, Flee-3 (which I am DELIGHTED with - I so wanted it to make history there), Lost Daughter - 3, No Time to Die - 3, Tragedy of Mackers - 3, Cruella - 2, Eyes of Tammy Faye - 2, Parallel Mothers - 2, and Worst Person in the World - 2 (yay!!)
I'm rooting for Power of the Dog, because I think it's the best film this year, but I *really* want as many noms as possible for tick, tick... BOOM!, since I adore it and it could go either way.
I have a terrible sinking feeling Belfast could just get a ton. And, boy. It sure is a movie.
