Once again - it's nominations time! Here's 2019 (88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers), here's 2018 (91/121 outright, 113/121 with spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 with spoilers). This is such a bizarre year that I do not expect to do better, but maybe something in the ball park?
Updated with the actual noms in bold. As expected, with such a different year, I did so-so. 84/118 outright or 110/118 with spoilers. So outright a tiny bit better than last year (1 percentage point) and with spoilers, about the same and on par with 2018.
Did not guess: Thomas Vinterberg - which I am thrilled about, Lakeith Stanfield, which I do not feel bad about about because, while I like him a lot as an actor, nominating him alongside his costar for supporting actor is truly insane, Borat for screenplay, which I do feel bad about because I had it down and then talked myself out of it (although - the most talked about bit is unscripted, so...), Better Days for Foreign, which is pretty out of left field (or as much as one can be from a shortlist), Pinocchio for costumes (what?), The Father for Production Design (again, what?), Love and Monsters for Visual Effects (I forgot this was a film).
Perfect categories: Best Actress, Best Actor, Cinematography, which I am chuffed about.
Best Picture
Minari - PGA, DGA, SAG, CCA, NBR
One Night in Miami - PGA, SAG, CCA, NBR Freedom of Expression award
Trial of the Chicago 7 - PGA, DGA, SAG, CCA, GG, BAFTA
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - PGA, SAG, CCA
Nomadland - PGA, DGA, GG winner, BAFTA, CCA winner, NBR
Pretty sure:
Promising Young Woman - PGA, DGA, BAFTA, GG, CCA, NBR
Mank - PGA, DGA, GG, CCA
Maybes:
Sound of Metal - PGA, CCA, NBR
Da 5 Bloods - SAG, CCA
Judas and the Black Messiah - PGA, NBR
Spoilers:
Borat - PGA, CCA, GG
The Father - BAFTA
Soul
News of the World - CCA
Palm Springs - CCA comedy winner
Unusually, only Minari and Trial of the Chicago 7 have the DGA/SAG/PGA noms - the SAGs largely went their own way, which makes things interesting, as the largest voting bloc.
First Cow should be up for best picture.
[Ed: I'm quite surprised by Ma Rainey and One Night. I wonder if that would have been different if the Oscars had gone back to a guaranteed 10 this year. Also - The Father getting in is the first of the strong increase in the European voting block influence.]
Best Director
Aaron Sorkin - Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao - Nomadland
David Fincher - Mank
Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman
Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
Spoilers:
Regina King - One Night in Miami - GG
Florian Zeller - The Father
The BAFTAs really went their own way with Thomas Vinterberg and Jasmila Zbanic (the better choices) as well as Shannon Murphy, which I am so chuffed about and she knows!:
Obviously Kelly Reichardt should be in here. At least she's up for an indie. As is Eliza Hittman. Spike Lee is up for a CCA and won the NBR, but nothing else.
[FUCK YES THOMAS VINTERBERG OVER AARON SORKIN! He was one of my favorites from the year.]
Best Editing
Mank - guild
Nomadland - guild
Trial of the Chicago 7 - won CCA, guild
Sound of Metal - won CCA, guild
Minari - guild
Spoilers:
One Night in Miami - possible best pic
Ma Rainey's - possible best pic
Promising Young Woman - BAFTA, possible best pic, guild - comedy
Da 5 Bloods - possible best pic
The Father - BAFTA, won LAFC
Never Rarely is at least up for an Indie. Time and City Hall should be up, but when do Docs actually get editing nods?
[Mank not getting in here is not good for its overall chances.]
Best Actress
Carey Mulligan - SAG, GG
Frances McDormand - SAG, BAFTA, GG
Vanessa Kirby - SAG, BAFTA, GG
Viola Davis - SAG, GG
I'm sort of torn on the 5th. Amy Adams would be the usual choice as a SAG nominee, and she's so beloved, but that movie was so panned. Still - Never Rarely isn't getting any PGA/DGA love, so I'm going with Andra, but Amy is a strong spoiler:
Andra Day - GG winner
Spoilers
Amy Adams - SAG
Sidney Flanigan - CCA, Indie, NBR bkth, NYFC, NSFC top 3
Julia Garner - Indie
I think Maria Bakalova will be hurt by category confusion - she won for lead at the GGs, but has been up for supporting for the SAGs and BAFTA, so I'll cover her below.
Eva Green should be up for Proxima.
Best Actor
Anthony Hopkins
Chadwick Boseman
Gary Oldman
Riz Ahmed
Steven Yuen
Spoilers:
Mads Mikkelsen - BAFTA, won EFA
Tahar Rahim - BAFTA, GG
Adarsh Gourav - indie, BAFTA
Delroy Lindo - CCA, won NYFC, won NSFC
I don't think Ben Affleck or Tom Hanks have enough support but Hanks, at least, is beloved... I wish Mads had more of a shot.
Supporting Actress
Helena Zengel
Maria Bakalova
Olivia Colman
Youn Yuh-jung
Amanda Seyfried
Again with Hillbilly - Glenn Close is beloved, and got a SAG, but I'm sure the GG nom was bought, and that film... I think Amanda Seyfried will slip in. Old hollywood love, and she's the best part of Mank...
Spoilers
Glenn Close
Dominique Fishback
Jodie Foster
Ellen Burstyn
As wonderful as Youn Yuh-jung is in Minari, I wish Yeri Han were up. She is so great. At least she's up for an indie, as are Talia Ryder and Valerie Mahaffey. All three are favorites. (although perhaps Yeri is subject to category confusion as well?)
Supporting Actor
Chadwick Boseman
Leslie Odom Jr.
Sacha Baron Cohen
Daniel Kaluuya
Paul Raci
The SAGs nominating Jared Leto is insanity. I can't. Paul Raci is great, and up for a BAFTA, so fingers crossed.
Spoilers
Jared Leto
Alan Kim
Glynn Turman
Bill Murray
I wish Orion Lee were up! He's up for an Indie... As is Benedict Wong for Nine Days. David Thewlis should be up, too! David Strathairn could also sneak in for a Nomadland wave, which would be great.
[Did not guess.... Lakeith Stanfield. The Judas of Judas and the Black Messiah. Because, ya know, the subject of that film....]
Screenplay - Adapted
One Night in Miami
Nomadland
Ma Rainey's
First Cow
Bad Education
Spoilers
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
News of the World
White Tiger
The Mauritanian
The Father
I have a sinking suspicion I'm Thinking of Ending Things will get in over First Cow. Because the last time the USC Scripter deviated from the Oscars, it was with my fave, Leave No Trace. If News of the World makes a stronger than expected showing, it could get in...
[Goddamnit. I talked myself out of Borat, when it had been in here. Very sad about First Cow.]
Screenplay - Original
Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Mank
Minari
Judas and the Black Messiah
Spoilers
Another Round
Sound of Metal
Palm Springs
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Soul
[Truly delighted Mank didn't get in here, despite having the most overall nominations.]
Animated
Wolfwalkers
Soul
Onward
Over the Moon
Croods 2
Spoilers
I really don't think there will be any, but our options here are Shaun the Sheep Farmageddon (it would be nice to get in over the croods), Trolls World Tour, and the Whilloughbys
World of Tomorrow 3 should obviously be eligible, despite the in-between runtime...
[Hell yes Shaun the Sheep!]
Documentary
Dick Johnson is Dead
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Truffle Hunters
Boys State
Spoilers
Collective - BAFTA
Mole Agent (Painter and the Thief got a DGA nod, but this seems to be a crowdpleaser)
Welcome to Chechnya - DGA
All In - WGA
Crip Camp
Gunda should be up. City Hall not even being eligible is a joke.
[Truly shocked that Dick Johnson isn't in here.]
Foreign
Another Round
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Dear Comrades
Night of the Kings
Collective
Spoilers
Two of Us
La Llorona
Mole Agent
I'm No Longer Here
The Man Who Sold His Skin
I think that's it, but... A Sun? Hope?
Ema is too bizarre for the Oscars, but it's amazing
[Ed: Missed Better Days which... I have not heard of.]
Cinematography
Mank
Nomadland
Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Judas and the Black Messiah - BAFTA
Spoilers
Cherry - guild. There's nothing behind this, so I can't imagine it's going to get in
The Mauritanian - BAFTA
First Cow - CCA (please please please)
Da 5 Bloods - CCA
Never Rarely - Indies
Gunda should be up.
Costumes
EMMA
Ma Rainey's
Mank
Promising Young Woman
Mulan
Spoilers
Judas and the Black Messiah
One Night in Miami
David Copperfield
The Glorias (because: Sandy Powell)
Ammonite
Variety seems to think News of the World is a potential spoiler. I wish Birds of Prey were.
[Did not guess: Pinocchio. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯]
Makeup/Hair
Birds of Prey
Ma Rainey's
Mank
Hillbilly Elegy
Emma
Spoilers
Jingle Jangle
Pinocchio
The Glorias
One Night in Miami
Production Design
Mank
Mulan
Ma Rainey's
News of the World
Trial of the Chicago 7
Spoilers
Emma
Tenet
Midnight Sky
Promising Young Woman
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
I really hope Emma gets in.
[The Father? Over Emma? Really?]
Visual Effects
Mank
Midnight Sky
Mulan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
Spoilers
One and Only Ivan
Birds of Prey
Soul
[Love and Monsters. ??? Did not recall this was a film.]
Score
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
Midnight Sky
Spoiler
Tenet
Trial of the Chicago 7
Invisible Man
Little Things
Da 5 Bloods
(What on earth is Blizzard of Souls???)
Song
Speak Now - One Night in Miami
Io Si - the Life Ahead
Fight for You - Judas and the Black Messiah
Turntables - All in
Show Me your Soul - Soul
Spoilers
I can't imagine it'll actually make it in, but it was up for a CCA: Husavik - Eurovision
Hear my Voice - Chicago 7
Rain Song - Minari
Make it Work - Jingle Jangle
And since South Park made it in: Wuhan Flu?
QUEEN BEE SHOULD BE ELIGIBLE. Maybe What a Life, too.
Sound
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Sound of Metal
Trial of the Chicago 7
Spoilers
Midnight Sky
Nomadland
Ma Rainey's
Tenet
Soul
Short Doc
A Love Song for Latasha
Abortion Helpline this is Lisa
Call Center Blues
Hunger Ward
Speed Cubers
Spoilers
Do Not Split
Hysterical Girl
What Would Sophia Loren Do?
Colette
A Concerto is a Conversation
How fucked is it that No Crying at the Dinner Table isn't up/wasn't up last year???
Short Live
White Eye
Two Distant Strangers
The Human Voice
The Letter Room
Bittu
Spoilers
Da Yie
Feeling Through
Kicksled Coir
The Present
The Van
Short Animated
The Snail and the Whale
If Anything Happens I Love You
Kapaemahu
Opera
Out
Spoilers
Traces
Burrow
Yes-People
To Gerard
Genius Loci
