Oscar Predictions

Given that I've been covering two jobs since October, I'm not really on top  of the race, but here we go. Past years: 2022: 16 (yikes), 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21?

I am once again entering the ESPN contest, which has some BONKERS predictions going on*, beat the crowd, plus I somehow got invited to a private pool that has, uhhhh, some industry folks/critics/fanatics. I'm not sure how that happened. I'm picking against the odds on 4/5 categories (depending on who you look at.) My boldest pick is going BAFTA for Boy with the Heron. I just think people will go lifetime achievement (but I certainly wouldn't be sad if spiderverse won. I REALLY wanted it to come back to the Metreon imax.) And (for most contests) I'm swapping the Barbie/Poor Things Costume/Production Design picks. Plus the doc and animated shorts. We shall see. 

*I mean, To Kill a Tiger for doc? Invincible for live action short? Really? Then again, stranger things have happened...

Also - I usually put "should win" in here, but I still have to see 4 of the best picture nominees (again - covering two roles since Oct...), so I am mostly not doing them. My plan is to try to catch up this week and pick my top films next weekend. (But again - we'll see. I have to work late at least one night this week.)

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall - spoiler

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer - will win

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

If Oppenheimer doesn't win, I'll eat my fedora. 

Best Director

Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)

Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) - will win

Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) - spoiler

Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Best Actress

Annette Bening (Nyad)

Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) - will win

Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

Emma Stone (Poor Things) - spoiler

This is the only acting race that is up in the air. Emma won the BAFTA and CCA, Lily won the drama GG and SAG. Both actors and European are large voting blocs. But I think that the Academy voters will go for the historical significance of the win. And I loved Lily SO much in Certain Women I'm pulling for her. 

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) - spoiler

Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) - will win

Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)

Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Robert Downey, Jr. (Oppenheimer) - will win

Ryan Gosling (Barbie) - spoiler

Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) - spoiler

Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

America Ferrera (Barbie)

Jodie Foster (Nyad)

Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) - will win

Best International Feature Film

Io Capitano (Matteo Garrone, Italy)

Society of the Snow (J.A. Bayona, Spain) - Spoiler

The Teachers’ Lounge (İlker Çatak, Germany)

The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer, United Kingdom) - will win

Perfect Days (Wim Wenders, Japan)

I'm going with Zone, since it's up for best picture (Anatomy won more precursors, but was ineligible.) I still can't believe Teacher's Lounge got in over Fallen Leaves, Taste of Things, or 20 days. 

Best Cinematography

Ed Lachman (El Conde)

Matthew Libatique (Maestro)

Rodrigo Prieto (Killers of the Flower Moon) - spoiler

Robbie Ryan (Poor Things)

Hoyte van Hoytema (Oppenheimer) - will win

Best Adapted Screenplay

Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig (Barbie)

Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Cord Jefferson (American Fiction) - will win

Tony McNamara (Poor Things) - spoiler

Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

I think this is where American Fiction gets its oscar. 

Best Original Screenplay

Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik (May December)

Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer (Maestro)

Arthur Harari and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) - will win

David Hemingson (The Holdovers)

Celine Song (Past Lives) - spoiler

I think this is where Anatomy gets its oscar. Sadly, this is where Past Lives had its best shot. (I think Holdovers is also a strong spoiler here)

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron - will win

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Spoiler

The money is on Spider-verse (PGA, CCA, ACE, NBR), which I think in many ways is the better film, but I think voters will give it to Miyazaki for his career. (Heron won the BAFTA & GG)

Best Visual Effects

The Creator; Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould - Spoiler

Godzilla Minus One; Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima  - will win

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3; Theo Bialek, Stephanie Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot & Guy Williams

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One; Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould

Napoleon; Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould

The Creator won the VES, the BAFTA and CCA went to non-nominated films. But I think Godzilla has the name recognition and they've done a great job with the narrative on the director/vfx and akubrick comparisons. 

Best Editing

Jennifer Lame (Oppenheimer) - will win

Yorgos Mavropsaridis (Poor Things)

Thelma Schoonmaker (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Laurent Sénéchal (Anatomy of a Fall) - spoiler

Kevin Tent (The Holdovers)

Best Production Design

Ruth De Jong and Claire Kaufman (Oppenheimer)

Jack Fisk and Adam Willis (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer (Barbie) - will win

Elli Griff and Arthur Max (Napoleon)

Shona Heath, Szusza Mihalek, and James Price (Poor Things) - Spoiler

So Barbie, interestingly, didn't win the guild award, Poor Things did (along with Oppenheimer and Saltburn). But I think voters will go for the actual built dream house. 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, and Ahou Mofid (Oppenheimer)

Mark Coulier, Nadia Stacey, and Josh Weston (Poor Things) - Spoiler

Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro, and Lori McCoy-Bell (Maestro) - will win

Karen Hartley and Suzi Battersby (Golda)

Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse Ribé (Society of the Snow)

I nearly put Poor Things, which won the BAFTA, but I do think Maestro (which won the guild) and Kazu Hiro will take it.

Best Costume Design

Jacqueline Durran (Barbie) - spoiler

Ellen Mirojnick (Oppenheimer)

Holly Waddington (Poor Things) - Will win, Should win

Jacqueline West (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Janty Yates and David Crossman (Napoleon)

This could easily go Barbie. They both won guild awards (along with Saltburn), Barbie won the CCA, Poor Things the BAFTA. Weirdly, I have Poor Things down as a spoiler in many categories, but this might be my only prediction for a win. 

(Look. I liked Jacqueline Durran's costumes for Peterloo, and Haley's dresses in Cyrano, and the green dress will always be perhaps the most iconic. But Little Women was recent.)

Best Sound

The Creator; Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic

Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One; Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

The Zone of Interest; Johnnie Burn and Tarn Willers - spoiler

Oppenheimer; Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell, and Gary A. Rizzo - will win

Maestro; Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder, and Dean Zupancic

Big boom.

(Zone won the BAFTA and Maestro one of the MPSEs. Oppenheimer won the other two MPSEs and the CAS.) 

Best Documentary Feature

Bobi Wine: The People’s President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters - spoiler

To Kill a Tiger

20 Days in Mariupol - will win

Won the BAFTA, was the only nominee also up for a PGA, I think voters will go for the subject matter and story. 

Best Original Song

It Never Went Away— Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson (American Symphony) - spoiler

What Was I Made For?— Billie Eilish and Finneas (Barbie) - will win

Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People—The Osage Tribe (Killers of the Flower Moon)

I’m Just Ken— Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (Barbie)

The Fire Inside— Diane Warren (Flamin’ Hot)

Billie won the GG and the guild, Ken won the CCA. (Also HOW GOOD was the choice of Bury a Friend for the new True Detective?) (Are either of Billie's oscar songs my favorites of hers? Not so much, but she's great and I'm happy for her to win.)

HOWEVER, since American Symphony won a lot of precursors, but didn't make the nom, and Jon Batiste is beloved by voters, I am picking him for the spoiler, in case Barbie splits its own votes. 

Best Original Score

Jerskin Fendrix (Poor Things) - spoiler

Ludwig Göransson (Oppenheimer) - will win

Laura Karpman (American Fiction)

Robbie Robertson (Killers of the Flower Moon)

John Williams (Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny)

Oppenheimer won the BAFTA, CCA and GG. 

Best Documentary Short Subject

The ABCs of Book Banning - spoiler

The Barber of Little Rock

Island in Between

The Last Repair Shop  - will win

Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

Book banning is the hot political issue, but Last Replair shop was up for more precursors, so I'm bucking the pundits. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Best Live Action Short

The After 

Invincible 

Knight of Fortune 

Red, White and Blue - spoiler

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar - will win

I mean, it's great. I could see voters going with the relevant abortion story though. 

Best Animated Short

Letter to a Pig - will win

Ninety-Five Senses

Our Uniform

Pachyderme

War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko - spoiler

War is Over seems awful, and I can't believe it's leading in the odds, but maybe academy voters would go for something that trite and call it 'talking about the middle east'? I've only seen Letter to a Pig, but short of the week also liked Pachyderme and Our Uniform, and Ross reports that he thinks Pachyderme is the best of the bunch. 

(Also - I did think Letter to a Pig was well done, and I wonder how the holocaust films will do in voting.)

So I think the best pic nominees shake out like this:

American Fiction - adapted screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall - original screenplay

Barbie - production design, song

The Holdovers - supporting actress

Killers of the Flower Moon - actress

Maestro - makeup

Oppenheimer - picture, director, actor, supporting actor, cinematography, editing, sound, score

Past Lives - *sniffles*

Poor Things - costume

The Zone of Interest - foreign