Sunday, January 23, 2011

Oscar predictions

Let's guess the nominees:

Best Picture
1. Black Swan
2. Fighter
3. Inception
4. Kids are All Right
5. King's Speech
6. Social Network
7. True Grit
8. Winter's Bone
9. Toy Story 3
10. The Town

127 Hours could replace Winter's Bone. But let's hope not. Please Winter's Bone over Kids Are All Right. I won't hope against TS3, despite the fact that I think its inclusion is awful. Potential surprises: Ghost Writer, Another Year, Shutter Island (God, I hope not).

At this point, I'd love to point out this fabulous tally at indieWire. While the PGA win for King's Speech gives some semblance of an actual race (and I'd never count out Harvey Weinstein), that's 29 wins for The Social Network vs. The King's Speech's 3. Inception and Winter's Bone follow with 2 each, which is what leads me to hold out hope for Winter's Bone.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky
David Fincher
David O. Russell
Christopher Nolan
Tom Hooper

Going with the DGAs and counting the Coens out.

Best Actress
Natalie Portman
Jennifer Lawrence
Annette Benning
Nicole Kidman
Michelle Williams

A possible Hailee Steinfeld upset here? It would be easier to predict if she and Lesley Manfield were more set in supporting versus lead. Much as I would love a Noomi Rapace upset, I don't see that happening.

Best Actor
Colin Firth
Jesse Eisenberg
James Franco
Jeff Bridges
Robert Duvall

Ugh. I'd take Ryan Gosling or Mark Wahlberg over Duvall. But god know best actor tends to skew old. Better Duvall than Javier Bardem, though?

Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo
Amy Adams
Helena Bonham Carter
Jacki Weaver
Hailee Steinfeld

Mila Kunis in here if voters get confused about which category to place Steinfeld in.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale
Geoffrey Rush
Mark Ruffalo
Andrew Garfield
Jeremy Renner

I'd give a limb for John Hawkes to supplant Mark Ruffalo.

Best Original Screenplay
King's Speech
Kids are All Right
Black Swan

I suppose Another Year could get in after a nomination from the Critics Choice and DC awards. (It was ineligible for the WGAs)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Social Network
127 Hours
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone

The Town for an upset.

Best Foreign Film
At this point, it's a choice between these nine; Biutiful, Outside the Law, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Confessions, Life Above All, Even the Rain, Simple Simon

Biutiful and In A Better World are safe bets. Incendies, probably, too. Outside the Law has proven controversial, so I bet it is out. I want to say Dogtooth and Confessions, since those are the two I most want to see, which leads me to believe the academy will snub them.

Well, here's hoping:
In A Better World

Best Animated
Toy Story 3
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon

Best Documentary
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Waiting for Superman
Inside Job
Last Train Home
Client 9: the Rise and Fall of Elliot Spitzer

The Tillman story could switch in for Last Train Home. I don't see Restrepo getting in.

Best Visual Effects
The current pool is Alice in Wonderland, Inception, Iron Man 2, Harry Potter 7, Hereafter, Scott Pilgrim, and Tron. I'm going with:

Alice in Wonderland

Harry Potter as my outlier. Why can't Scott Pilgrim have nice things?

Best Live Short
I only know what BAFTA has picked in this category, so I go with those:
Until the River Runs Red
[ED UPDATE 1/24/11: The pool for this category is; Ana's Playground, The Confession, the Crush, God of Love, Na Wewe, Seeds of the Fall, Shoe, Six Dollar Fifty Man, Sma Barn Stora Ord, Wish 143. I'll go with Confession, Wish 143, Shoe, God of Love, the Six Dollar Fifty Man.]

Best Animated Short
(Going with the Annie noms here:)
Coyote Falls
Day & Night
The Renter
Enrique Wrecks the World
Cow who wanted to be a Hamburger (how much do I want to see this when the shorts come out?)

[ED UPDATE 1/24/11: The pool for ani short is: The Cow who Wanted to Be a Hamburger, Coyote Falls, Day & Night, the Gruffalo, Let's Pollute, the Lost Thing, Madagascar Carnet de Voyage, Sensology, Urs, the Silence Beneath the Park. Therefore I am updating my picks to; Coyote Falls, Day & Night, the Cow who, and.... the Gruffalo and Madagascar. Since we can't see them until after the noms are announced....]

[ED UPDATE 1/24/11 CONT.: It occurs to me I have completely omitted Documentary Short. Whoops. The pool for this one is: Born Sweet, Killing in the Name, Living for 32, One Thousand Pictures - RFK's Last Journey, Poster Girl, Strangers No More, Sun Come Up, Warriors of Qiugang. I'm picking: Born Sweet, Killing in the Name, Living for 32, Strangers No More, Warriors of Qiugang.]

Best Costumes
Black Swan
King's Speech
Alice in Wonderland
True Grit

Tron and Inception for upsets here. (Upsets. Psh. Like there's much to go on once you reach this level of category)

Best Art/Production design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
King's Speech
True Grit

Best Makeup
Pool: Alice in Wonderland, True Grit, Barney's Version, Fighter, Jonah Hex, Way Back, Wolfman. I go with:

Alice in Wonderland
True Grit
Wolfman (it would feel wrong if this didn't get in, no?)

Jonah Hex as the spoiler (Josh Brolin is in both). (And what is the makeup in the Way Back? Fake teeth? tattoos?)

Best Cinematography
True Grit
Black Swan
King's Speech
Social Network

Best Editing
Social Network
Black Swan
127 Hours
King's Speech

Best Song
You Haven't Seen the Last of Me (Burlesque)
If I Rise (127 Hours)
I See the Lights (Tangled)
There's a Place for Us (Narnia)
Coming Home (Country Strong)

Bound to You (Burlesque) as a spoiler. Possibly Shine (Waiting for Superman). Please god, don't nominate We Belong Together (TS3).

Didn't we just have the Beyonce/Jennifer Hudson sing-off a couple years back? It seems criminal not to get Christina Aguilera up there to belt at everyone.

Best Score
Important to remember here: the Fighter, the Kids are All Right, True Grit, and Black Swan are all disqualified in this category.

Social Network
127 Hours
King's Speech
Alice in Wonderland

How to Train Your Dragon as a spoiler. I would like TRON here, please. But I'm not seeing it happening.

Best Sound
Black Swan
Social Network
True Grit
King's Speech

Tron, Harry Potter 7, Shutter Island as spoilers.

Best Sound effects editing
Iron Man 2
Black Swan
127 Hours

True Grit, Salt, Tron for upsets.

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