2014 wrap-up, part 3: The Oscars - Who Should Win and Who Will Win

Y'know. Maybe? Because these predictions are going to be rough.

In addition to barely knowing what is likely to win, I'm just upset all over again at how weak the nominees are this year. Do better next year, Academy.

Best Picture
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Birdman - Should Win/Will Win
The Theory of Everything
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
Selma
American Sniper

Boo. Pour one out for Nightcrawler/Gone Girl/Wild/Inherent Vice/Calvary/Only Lovers Left Alive/Snowpiercer. 

Best Actress
Julianne Moore, Still Alice - Will Win
Reese Witherspoon, Wild - Should Win (haven't seen Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Best Actor
Michael Keaton, Birdman - Should Win
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything - Will Win Ugh. Ugh ugh ugh.
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Best Supporting Actor
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash - Should Win/Will Win
Edward Norton, Birdman
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Robert Duvall, The Judge

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood - Will Win
Emma Stone, Birdman
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Laura Dern, Wild - Should Win (haven't seen Boyhood)

Best Director
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman - Will Win
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

I have a hard time saying Iñárritu *should* win over Linklater, because his feat is pretty monumental. And really, I think we can all agree Miller shouldn't be in here.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game - Will Win
Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash - Should Win
Jason Hall, American Sniper
Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice (I hear this is the favorite amongst critics, but I've yet to see it)

Where the fuck is Wild? THAT SCREENPLAY WAS SO MUCH BETTER THAN IMITATION GAME. THAT'S HOW YOU DO FLASHBACKS.

Best Original Screenplay
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel - Will Win
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler - Should Win
Dan Futterman and E. Max Frye, Foxcatcher

Best Foreign Film
Ida (Poland) - Should Win/Will Win
Leviathan (Russia)
Tangerines (Estonia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Wild Tales (Argentina)

Best Documentary Feature
Citizenfour - Should Win/Will Win
Last Days in Vietnam
Virunga
Finding Vivian Maier
The Salt of the Earth

Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6
How to Train Your Dragon 2 - Will Win
The Boxtrolls
Song of the Sea - Should Win
The Tale of Princess Kaguya - Should Win

I haven't seen ANY of them, but those two look the best in trailers. 

Film Editing
American Sniper
Boyhood - Will Win
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash - Should Win

Best Song
Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois, Nick Lashley, and Nick Southwood, "Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
John Legend and Common, "Glory" (Selma) - Will Win/Should Win
Shawn Patterson, Joshua Bartholomew, Lisa Harriton, and The Lonely Island, "Everything Is Awesome" (The Lego Movie)
Diane Warren, "Grateful" (Beyond the Lights)
Glen Campbell, "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" (Glen Campbell ... I'll Be Me)

Best Original Score
Johann Johannsson, The Theory of Everything
Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game
Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel - I am really hoping the swell of technical Oscars for Budapest means that Desplat won't split his own votes and that he wins it here. Otherwise, it's going to the Theory of Everything, I think.
Hans Zimmer, Interstellar - Should Win
Gary Yershon, Mr. Turner

Where the fuck is Gone Girl? And could we not have gone for the Desplat trifecta and included Godzilla?

Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman - Should Win/Will Win
Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Robert D. Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ryszard Lenczewski and Łukasz Żal, Ida
Roger Deakins, Unbroken

I'll be much happier when Emmanuel Lubezki wins for this. I also love that Ida made it in here.

Costume Design
Colleen Atwood, Into the Woods - NO.
Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive, Maleficent - Should Win
Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel - Will Win
Jacqueline Durran, Mr. Turner
Mark Bridges, Inherent Vice

I'm actually fine with the Grand Budapest costumes, but I think Maleficent gets the edge here for me. I mean, those wings are staggeringly gorgeous.
   

Makeup and Hairstyling
Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard, Foxcatcher
Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier, The Grand Budapest Hotel - Should Win/Will Win
Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White, Guardians of the Galaxy

Production Design
Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock, The Grand Budapest Hotel - Should Win/Will Win
Suzie Davies and Charlotte Watts, Mr. Turner
Dennis Gassner and Anna Pinnock, Into the Woods
Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis, and Paul Healy, Interstellar
Maria Djurkovic and Tatiana Macdonald, The Imitation Game

Sound Editing
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman, American Sniper - Will Win
Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock, Birdman
Brent Burge and Jason Canovas, The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies
Richard King, Interstellar - Should Win
Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro, Unbroken

Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Birdman
Unbroken
Interstellar - Should Win
Whiplash - Will Win

Visual Effects
Interstellar - Should Win/Will Win
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
X Men: Days of Future Past
Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Short Film, Live Action
Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis, Aya (Chasis Films)
Michael Lennox, director, and Ronan Blaney, Boogaloo and Graham (Out of Orbit) - But I'm totally rooting for this one.
Hu Wei and Julien Féret, Butter Lamp (La Lampe au Beurre de Yak) (AMA Productions) - Should Win
Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger, Parvaneh (Zurich University of Arts)
Mat Kirkby, director and James Lucas, The Phone Call (RSA Films) - Will Win

Short Film, Animated
Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees, The Bigger Picture (National Film and Television School)
Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi, The Dam Keeper (Tonko House) - Should Win
Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed, Feast (Walt Disney Animation Studios) - Will Win
Torill Kove, Me and My Moulton (Mikrofilm in co-production with the National Film Board of Canada)
Joris Oprins, A Single Life (Job, Joris & Marieke)

The Oscars tend to go more radical in animated short, so I have hope for the Dam Keeper. But Feast was enjoyable, so I don't have an issue with it winning. 

Documentary Short Subject
Perry Films, Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 - Will Win
Wajda Studio, Joanna
Warsaw Film School, Our Curse
Centro de Capacitación Cinematográfica, The Reaper (La Parka)
Weary Traveler, White Earth

Haven't seen the rest, so no opinion on what should win.