As always, going for 22/24 or better. But I'm happy if a "should win" triumphs over a "will win". (And honestly? I'd be happy to get 0/24 so long as La La Land doesn't get cinematography.)
If Oscar voters end up blanket awarding La La Land for every nominated category, I'm.... going to be even more deeply upset.
Best picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land - Will Win
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight - Should win
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Lead actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land,
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences - Will Win
I'm giving this to Denzel by a hair, because actors make up the biggest bloc of oscar voters. But Casey Affleck has won more primary awards. I'm not sure who should win out of this group - they largely wouldn't be my picks - Denzel was good, but not great; Casey was brilliant, but a horrible human being, so I find myself going for Andrew (I see this almost as a co-nomination for Silence. Cough: https://letterboxd.com/harryrossi/list/2016-films-with-andrew-garfield-as-an-explicitly/)
Lead actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle - Should Win
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land - Will Win
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Supporting actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight - Will Win, Should Win
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Supporting actress
Viola Davis, Fences - Will Win
Naomie Harris, Moonlight - Should Win
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Best director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land - Will Win
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight - Should Win
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Animated feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia - Will Win
Haven't seen My Life as a Zucchini or the Red Turtle, so hard to say what should win. I personally prefer Moana to Zootopia, but I can see why Zootopia will win.
Animated short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper - Will win, should win
Adapted screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight - Will win, should win
Original screenplay
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster - Should win
Manchester by the Sea - Will win
The Lobster and 20th Century Women should be up for best picture.
Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion - Will win
Moonlight - Should win
Silence
I'm going with the guild on this one. The popular opinion is that La La Land will take it, but I JUST CAN'T. I HATE La La Land's cinematography. And the experts thought Roger Deakins would win a few years back and then he didn't. Moonlight won a number of precursors, so there's some hope there. If La La Land wins this one, I will fucking break things.
Should win is tricky. I'm giving it to Moonlight by a hair. I do really like Silence's too. (I'm a sucker for foggy landscapes). Lion's was interesting, but I'm mostly hoping it'll beat LA. (Beat LA!)
Best documentary feature
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America - Will win
Best documentary short subject
4.1 Miles
Extremist
Joe’s Violin - Will win
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Extremis is more nominated, but apparently Joe's Violin more crowd-pleasing/oscar baity. That said, an anti-Trump vote for White Helmets could carry the day. But that may be confined to the foreign category below.
Best live-action short film
Ennemis Interieurs - Will win
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Timecode as spoiler for winning a palme.
Best foreign language film
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
Tanna
The Salesman - Will Win
Toni Erdmann
ELLE SHOULD WIN. Harumph. (Not to mention Korea not even SUBMITTING The Handmaiden.) The Salesman has built a second phase anti-trump narrative, so I think it has edged Toni Erdmann, which had been in the lead.
I still really want to see Tanna. I keep missing it.
Film editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land - Will win
Moonlight - Should Win (although Arrival's editing is great, and Hacksaw Ridge's battle scenes are, too)
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Sound editing
Arrival
Deep Water Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge - Will Win, Should Win
La La Land
Sully
Sound mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land - Will Win
Rogue One - Should Win
13 Hours
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Production design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail Caesar! - Should Win (although I haven't seen fantastic beasts/passengers and passengers won for fantasy at the ADGs)
La La Land - Will win
Passengers
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
The fact that the Handmaiden is not nominated here invalidates this category. Also! Normally this category is heavily dominated by the period nominees from the ADG but none (!) were nominated this go round (Jackie (so great), Cafe Society, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, and Hidden Figures - the winner in that group.)
Original score
Jackie
La La Land - Will win
Lion
Moonlight - Should win
Passengers
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
I HATE the La La Land score. (Jackie's is also amazing, and Lion's is really good.) Here. Go listen to this and this as a palate cleanser.
Original song
Audition, La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling!, Trolls
City of Stars, La La Land - Will win
The Empty Chair, Jim: The James Foley Story
How Far I’ll Go, Moana - Should win
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Come on. Give it to Lin. Let the man EGOT.
Makeup and hair
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond - Will win, should win
Suicide Squad
Star Trek won the guild for effects (suicide squad won character), but the Man Called Ove team won a couple of years back for the Man that Climbed Out the Window and Wandered Away, or whatever that movie was. But the Jaylah/Sofia Boutella alien was great.
Costume design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie - Should win
La La Land - Will Win
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
At least Coleen Atwood won't get it again? The other winners in the guild awards (Hidden Figures and Doctor Strange) weren't even nominated. My favorite - Love & Friendship - was only up for a Critics Choice. I call bullshit.
Gold Derby actually has Jackie winning this. Pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease.
Visual effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Jungle Book - Will win (probably should - haven't seen it)
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
If Oscar voters end up blanket awarding La La Land for every nominated category, I'm.... going to be even more deeply upset.
Best picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land - Will Win
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight - Should win
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land,
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences - Will Win
I'm giving this to Denzel by a hair, because actors make up the biggest bloc of oscar voters. But Casey Affleck has won more primary awards. I'm not sure who should win out of this group - they largely wouldn't be my picks - Denzel was good, but not great; Casey was brilliant, but a horrible human being, so I find myself going for Andrew (I see this almost as a co-nomination for Silence. Cough: https://letterboxd.com/harryrossi/list/2016-films-with-andrew-garfield-as-an-explicitly/)
Lead actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle - Should Win
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land - Will Win
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Supporting actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight - Will Win, Should Win
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Viola Davis, Fences - Will Win
Naomie Harris, Moonlight - Should Win
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Best director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land - Will Win
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight - Should Win
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Animated feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia - Will Win
Haven't seen My Life as a Zucchini or the Red Turtle, so hard to say what should win. I personally prefer Moana to Zootopia, but I can see why Zootopia will win.
Animated short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper - Will win, should win
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight - Will win, should win
Original screenplay
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster - Should win
Manchester by the Sea - Will win
The Lobster and 20th Century Women should be up for best picture.
Arrival
La La Land
Lion - Will win
Moonlight - Should win
Silence
I'm going with the guild on this one. The popular opinion is that La La Land will take it, but I JUST CAN'T. I HATE La La Land's cinematography. And the experts thought Roger Deakins would win a few years back and then he didn't. Moonlight won a number of precursors, so there's some hope there. If La La Land wins this one, I will fucking break things.
Should win is tricky. I'm giving it to Moonlight by a hair. I do really like Silence's too. (I'm a sucker for foggy landscapes). Lion's was interesting, but I'm mostly hoping it'll beat LA. (Beat LA!)
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America - Will win
Best documentary short subject
4.1 Miles
Extremist
Joe’s Violin - Will win
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Extremis is more nominated, but apparently Joe's Violin more crowd-pleasing/oscar baity. That said, an anti-Trump vote for White Helmets could carry the day. But that may be confined to the foreign category below.
Best live-action short film
Ennemis Interieurs - Will win
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Timecode as spoiler for winning a palme.
Best foreign language film
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
Tanna
The Salesman - Will Win
Toni Erdmann
ELLE SHOULD WIN. Harumph. (Not to mention Korea not even SUBMITTING The Handmaiden.) The Salesman has built a second phase anti-trump narrative, so I think it has edged Toni Erdmann, which had been in the lead.
I still really want to see Tanna. I keep missing it.
Film editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land - Will win
Moonlight - Should Win (although Arrival's editing is great, and Hacksaw Ridge's battle scenes are, too)
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Sound editing
Arrival
Deep Water Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge - Will Win, Should Win
La La Land
Sully
Sound mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land - Will Win
Rogue One - Should Win
13 Hours
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Production design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail Caesar! - Should Win (although I haven't seen fantastic beasts/passengers and passengers won for fantasy at the ADGs)
La La Land - Will win
Passengers
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
The fact that the Handmaiden is not nominated here invalidates this category. Also! Normally this category is heavily dominated by the period nominees from the ADG but none (!) were nominated this go round (Jackie (so great), Cafe Society, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, and Hidden Figures - the winner in that group.)
Jackie
La La Land - Will win
Lion
Moonlight - Should win
Passengers
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
I HATE the La La Land score. (Jackie's is also amazing, and Lion's is really good.) Here. Go listen to this and this as a palate cleanser.
Original song
Audition, La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling!, Trolls
City of Stars, La La Land - Will win
The Empty Chair, Jim: The James Foley Story
How Far I’ll Go, Moana - Should win
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Come on. Give it to Lin. Let the man EGOT.
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond - Will win, should win
Suicide Squad
Star Trek won the guild for effects (suicide squad won character), but the Man Called Ove team won a couple of years back for the Man that Climbed Out the Window and Wandered Away, or whatever that movie was. But the Jaylah/Sofia Boutella alien was great.
Costume design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie - Should win
La La Land - Will Win
UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
At least Coleen Atwood won't get it again? The other winners in the guild awards (Hidden Figures and Doctor Strange) weren't even nominated. My favorite - Love & Friendship - was only up for a Critics Choice. I call bullshit.
Gold Derby actually has Jackie winning this. Pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease.
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Jungle Book - Will win (probably should - haven't seen it)
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
I do love the effects in Rogue One, but I'd give it to Doctor Strange for taking the technique in really new and exciting directions.
No comments:
Post a Comment