Well, I did terribly on the noms this year, so who knows how this'll go. Also, I planned to do this on Saturday, but I found out SFFilm had a contest ending at midnight, so this'll also likely be faster than most years. Maybe that'll be good? More gut decisions, less overthinking?
Also - I'm not watching this shitshow. If you aren't broadcasting editing and score, I DON'T FUCKING CARE. WHAT DO YOU THINK MAKES A MOVIE A MOVIE. Fuck you forever ABC.Update 3/27: What a boring show (assault aside). I got 20/23, 22/23 with spoilers (and while knowing Belfast was the smart spoiler, but simply refusing.) I came in 1974/9498 on gold derby, which isn't horrible. But basically the only winner not predicted by the pundits was the Windshield Wiper, which was still the second most likely. (And I'm THRILLED it won. It and Jane were kind of the only two I cared about.)
Look - I've loved the Oscars (or love/hated) for years. Everything about tonight was disgraceful. It was STILL longer than the last three shows and it disrespected the people making the films. And given how many people I saw on twitter either not watching or declaring the oscars irrelevant from here on out, I hope the Academy does a hard reset going into next year. (Here is a good thread more eloquently expressing those same thoughts.)
Belfast
CODA - spoiler, did win
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog - will win, should win
West Side Story
If anyone makes a potent movie soon about the ways that men, especially, tangle up intimacy with hostility and protection with violence, I hope it wins many awards!
— Nick Davis (@NicksFlickPicks) March 28, 2022
In the end, I think it breaks down as:
Belfast - original screenplay
CODA - supporting actor, adapted screenplay, picture
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car - foreign
Dune - edit, cinematography, production design, vfx, score, sound
King Richard - actor
Licorice Pizza -
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog -
West Side Story - supporting actress
Apparently the money is on CODA for picture and Belfast for original screenplay (excuse me while I throw up a little), but it looks like all my other picks line up with the pundits. I may be taking myself out of the running for a SFFilm cinevisa (finally! The first oscar betting I really care about), but I CANNOT bring myself to put Belfast down for screenplay. Others must have been as bored as I was! (I can no longer find the tweet, but whoever said 'screenwriters please consider you may not be the most interesting character in your own story' was correct!)
