2017 JWD Awards - winners

Top 25 films here.

Best Film
Lady Bird
God's Own Country
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
Lady Macbeth
I Tonya
Call Me By Your Name
Molly's Game
The Florida Project
Una
Three Billboards
A Dragon Arrives!
Get Out
The Shape of Water

Best Popcorn Flick
Wonder Woman
Colossal
Atomic Blonde
Their Finest
Handsome Devil
Baby Driver
Thor Ragnarok
The Incredible Jessica James
The Disaster Artist
The Beguiled
The Lure

Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Saorsie Ronan, Lady Bird
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Florence Pugh, Lady Macbeth
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Rooney Mara, Una
Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Ben Mendelsohn, Una
Josh O'Connor, God's Own Country
Alec Secareanu, God's Own Country
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Gray Oldman, Darkest Hour

Best Supporting Actress
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Betty Gabriel, Get Out
Allison Janney, I Tonya
Anne Heche, My Friend Dahmer
Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
Naomi Acki, Lady Macbeth

And the Judi Dench brief impact award goes to Helen McCrory - Their Finest

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Fionn Whitehead, Dunkirk
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Richard Jenkins, Shape of Water
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
Jake Lacy, Their Finest
Idris Elba, Molly's Game
Ian Hart, God's Own Country
Tracy Letts, Lady Bird
Barry Keoghan, Killing of a Sacred Deer

Best Ensemble
Get Out
Big Sick
Lady Bird
Three Billboards
Dunkirk
Shape of Water
Their Finest
I, Tonya
God's Own Country

Best Director
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Francis Lee, God's Own Country
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Petty Jenkins, Wonder Woman
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
William Oldroyd, Lady Macbeth


Best Screenplay - Adapted
The Disaster Artist (In case you haven't seen this)
Call Me By Your Name
Molly's Game
The Beguiled
Wonder Woman


Best Screenplay - Original
Lady Bird
Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Get Out
Lady Macbeth
God's Own Country
Phantom Thread
The Florida Project

Best Animated
Coco

Best Documentary
Jane
Casting Jonbenet
El Mar la Mar
Let It Fall
Step
The Force
78/52
Donkeyote

Best Foreign
Graduation
The Lure
A Dragon Arrives!

Um....
British Isles/Commonwealth:
God's Own Country
Their Finest
Handsome Devil
Lady Macbeth
Mammal
Una

(There we go.)

Best Editing
Jane
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I Tonya
Molly's Game
Lady Bird
Call Me By Your Name
God's Own Country
Their Finest

Best Cinematography
Lady Macbeth
God's Own Country
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Call Me By Your Name
Lady Bird
The Florida Project
Three Billboards
Phantom Thread
Wonderstruck
The Beguiled
Killing of a Sacred Deer

Best Costumes
God's Own Country (#gheorghejumper & billowy)
Phantom Thread
Atomic Blonde (and this. And this. I mean, hello gorgeous.
Blade Runner 2049
I Tonya
Lady Bird
Lady Macbeth (and this one)
Their Finest (and. and. and.)
Wonder Woman (also. also.)
Three Billboards. Iconic.
Thor (also Hela, because jfc.)
Dunkirk (it was a big year in turtlenecks.)
The Beguiled


Best Makeup
Shape of Water
I Tonya
Darkest Hour
Three Billboards (I just really enjoy Frances' undercut)
Atomic Blonde
Lady Macbeth
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy 2
Star Wars

Best Production Design
Blade Runner 2049
Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
Wonder Woman
Lady Bird
Lady Macbeth

Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Kong: Skull Island
Dunkirk
Shape of Water
Wonder Woman
Thor Ragnarok

Best Score
Three Billboards
Phantom Thread
Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Blade Runner
Jane
Coco
Wonderstruck
Darkest Hour
Thor Ragnarok
Wonder Woman


Best Song/Musical Moment
Mystery of Love - Sufjan Stevens - Call Me By Your Name
Visions of Gideon - Sufjan Stevens - Call Me By Your Name
The opening chase/Bellbottoms - Baby Driver
Remember Me - Coco
Jump - Cynthia Erivo - Step
You'll Never Know Just How Much I Love You - Shape of Water
Really any of the numbers in The Lure, but how about Abracadabra
Most of Atomic Blonde, but especially: killing the dudes in the tunnel to Major Tom, the fight before the window to Father Figure, Politics of Dancing in the club, the Kaleida cover of 99 luftballons at a pivotal moment, and, of course, I Ran during a chase scene. (I also love that there is no score at all for the stairway scene.)
The opening of Guardians 2. (Hi!) (This is also one of two scenes I can actually remember from this movie. What was it about again?)
Crash Into Me - DMB - Lady Bird (was there anything that brought back HS so strongly?!) (Runner up: Hand in my Pocket)
The WW theme on Electric Cello when she retakes the city. I mean. How great is this?

Best Sound
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
Baby Driver
God's Own Country
Star Wars (really, just for this)


Best Animated Short
World of Tomorrow 2.

(I mean, if you need some others:
Second to None
Summer Camp Island
Edge of Alchemy
History of Magic: Ensueno
But let's not kid ourselves.)


Best Live Action Short
Ten Meter Tower (full video)
Meaningless Conversations in Beautiful Environments (full video)
A Brief History of Princess X
Red Apples
The Good Time Girls (full video)
5 Films about Technology (full video!!)
American Paradise (full video)
Hot Seat


Best Debut Film
Get Out
Lady Bird
God's Own Country
Lady Macbeth
Molly's Game

Film I didn't get to that I am most looking forward to
Mudbound
A Quiet Passion
Columbus
Personal Shopper
Hostiles
BPM
First They Killed My Father
Raw
Manifesto
A Ghost Story
Hounds of Love
Chasing Coral
Good Time
Kedi
My Cousin Rachel
Nocturama
Okja
Professor Marston & the Wonder Women
School Life
Thelma
T2
Stronger
Logan Lucky

(This category needs to be renamed; "the films I'll be adding to my list of shame when I don't get them next year, either.")

Best Trailer
Killing of a Sacred Deer
Dunkirk
Wonder Woman
Atomic Blonde
Baby Driver
Kong Skull Island

Best Quote
“The tea is leaving, but the interruption is staying right here with me.” - Phantom Thread

"You read the Crucible?" "Yeah, everyone's right. It's great." - Molly's Game

"You can't un-fuck what's been fucked." - Atomic Blonde

"But it's what I'm going to do." - Wonder Woman

"Don't you think they are the same thing - love and attention?" - Lady Bird

"If I could, I would have voted for Obama for a third term." - Get Out

"Don't say what, Dixon, when she comes in calling you a "fuckhead." - Three Billboards

"Our children are dying, but yes, I can make you mashed potatoes." - Killing of a Sacred Deer

Just about everything Taika wrote for Thor. (See A, B, C, D)

"What did you DO?" - Call Me by Your Name

Best Poster
Alien Covenant (the other version isn't bad either)
The Bad Batch
Free Fire
mother!
It Comes at Night
Thor Ragnarok
Wonder Woman
Killing of a Sacred Deer
Lost City of Z (I actually had never seen this before, but it is lovely)
Shape of Water
Human Flow

(Logan almost would have worked, until you noticed how CREEPY LONG Laura's fingers were photoshopped to be.)

Unforgettable Moment Award [SPOILERS]
The phone call - Star Wars
The silence - Star Wars
No Man's Land - Wonder Woman
The men on the pier noticing the bombers - Dunkirk
The credits - Call Me by Your Name
Michael Stuhlbarg's monologue - Call Me By Your Name
The ending run - The Florida Project
Willem Dafoe's basically monologue - The Florida Project (also, shooing away the Sandhill Cranes)
The shocking death - Their Finest
The phone call home - Lady Bird
The lambskin coat - God's Own Country
Eating the omelet - Phantom Thread

Bonus: Prior and Louis meeting on a park bench in Perestroika

Best films of 2017

Whoops! Totally forgot to do this. Winter was insane. (Also, I've gotten used to making lists on letterboxd)

1. Lady Bird

2. God's Own Country

This was so tough to choose. 1a and 1b, really. 

3. Dunkirk

4. Phantom Thread

5. Jane

6. Lady Macbeth

7. I, Tonya

8. Call Me By Your Name

9. A Dragon Arrives!

10. Una

11. Three Billboards

12. The Florida Project

13. Shape of Water

14. Casting JonBenet

15. El mar la mar

16. Coco

17. The Disaster Artist

18. Let It Fall

19. The Beguiled

20. Get Out

21. Wonder Woman

22. Colossal

23. Atomic Blonde

24. Step

25. Their Finest

Honorable mentions: Handsome Devil, My Friend Dahmer, Mammal, Graduation, Baby Driver, The Lure, Thor Ragnarok, The Incredible Jessica James

Oscars follow-up

20/24 for me. Not great, but but not terrible. Got Live Action Short, Documentary, Visual Effects, and Best Picture wrong.

Best Picture
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird” - should win
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water” - did win
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - will win

How DID the fish fucking movie become the safe pick? (Excuse me. Amphibian-fucking movie.)

First film since Braveheart to win without a SAG ensemble nomination.

Lead Actress
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - will win, did win
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” - should win
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Lead Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name” - Should win
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” - will win, did win
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” - will win, did win
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” - should win
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - should win, will win, did win

Director
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan - should win
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro - will win, did win

Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco - should win, will win, did win
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Adapted Screenplay
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory - will win, did win
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber - should win
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Original Screenplay
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele - will win, did win
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig - should win
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

Cinematography
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins - should win, will win, did win
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Best Documentary Feature
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail”
“Faces Places” - Will Win
“Icarus” - did win
“Last Men in Aleppo”
“Strong Island”

Whoa. Anti-Russian sentiment?

Best Foreign Language Film
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile) - will win, did win
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)

Film Editing
“Baby Driver”
“Dunkirk” - Should win, will win, did win
“I, Tonya”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Sound Editing
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk” - should win, will win, did win
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Sound Mixing
“Baby Driver” - should win
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk” - will win, did win
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Production Design
“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau - should win, will win, did win

Original Score
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood - should win
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat - will win, did win
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

Original Song
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens - should win
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez - will win, did win
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

Makeup and Hair
“Darkest Hour” - should win, will win, did win
“Victoria and Abdul”
“Wonder”

Costume Design
“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges - should win, will win, did win
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049 - should win, did win
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes - will win

Animated Short
“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant - will win. Ugh. - did win
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon - should win.
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel - will win, did win
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

Best Live Action Short Film
“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk - will win
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton - did win
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

2018 Oscars

This is a fun year! I don't expect to do particularly well (as always, I'd like to beat 22/24 for a personal best). BUT! It is more fun to have Best Picture so up in the air. As always; will win/should win. I'm thrilled a larger, younger, more diverse voting body is making for some interesting races.

Best Picture
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird” - should win
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - will win

Hmm. Can Shape win without the SAG ensemble nomination? No one has done it since Braveheart. Will voters note that everyone is winning somewhere else except Lady Bird, and go that way (or will it score enough #2 votes to emerge triumphant?) I think the most likely winner is still Three Billboards, based on the precursors. But Shape had the most nominations (plus the ode-to-hollywood appeal), and Get Out voters are probably not going to vote for Three Billboards (and visa versa). So perhaps Lady Bird could squeak in there, if the top votes are split?

I have a tough time with this one because the two frontrunners (Shape and Billboards) are from two of my favorite artists, but I don't think either is their strongest work. Shape of Water is bizarrely not a horror work by del Toro, in a year when a horror film finally cracked the noms! And Three Billboards is SO good in some respects, and then just falls short in a couple of areas. The other two in contention at all are Get Out and Lady Bird.

Three Billboards took both top BAFTAs, the SAG ensemble award, and the GG for drama. Shape of Water took the PGA - usually my forecaster. Lady Bird took the GG for Comedy, and the NSFC. Get Out took the Indie (over CMBYN!) The question is, will the many noms and PGA take it? Or will the growing gap in membership between the PGA and academy mean something else will win over Shape? I think Three Billboards edges it. The voting community is not twitter, and it's been pretty beloved since Toronto...

Overlooked: The Florida Project, I Tonya. Wonder Woman.

Of note, this is where thing are likely to shake out overall for everything else:
“Call Me by Your Name” - adapted screenplay
“Darkest Hour” - actor, makeup
“Dunkirk” - editing, sound x2
“Get Out” - original screenplay
“Lady Bird” - 0 (wah!)
“Phantom Thread” - costumes
“The Post” - 0
“The Shape of Water” - director, production design, score (ick)
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - actress, supporting actor

Lead Actress
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - will win
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” - should win
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

I love Frances McDormand, too. I'm not at all mad about her winning this.

Overlooked: Vicky Krieps, Florence Pugh.

Lead Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name” - Should win
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” - Will win
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Look - all four acting frontrunners won the SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globe. These are all pretty much locks.

Overlooked: Josh O'Connor.

Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” - will win
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” - should win
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Although I am thrilled that I Tonya will be getting SOMETHING.

Overlooked: Holly Hunter, the best part of the Big Sick.

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” - should win, will win

Look, I love Willem Dafoe in the Florida Project, and I wish that film had received more love (and Woody Harrelson & Richard Jenkins are great!). But... it's my boy Sam. He deserves all his acclaim.

Overlooked: Michael Stuhlbarg.

Director
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan - should win
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro - will win

I love all five of these humans. One of the two best Director Q&As I've ever seen was with Guillermo. I'm thrilled for him to win. Shape is his most accomplished film. It's funny though - director has recently gone to the most complex film, which in this case would be Nolan's. That said, Guillermo has the DGA, GG, and BAFTA, so...

Overlooked: Luca Guadagnino.

Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco - should win, will win
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

With the caveat that I have not seen Loving Vincent or the Breadwinner yet. But Coco was lovely. Plus, it has won the PGA, BAFTA, GG, Ace Eddie, NBR, *11* Annie Awards, VES, *and* CAS awards, plus most of the critics groups. Easy lock.

Adapted Screenplay
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory - will win
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber - should win
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

I love James Ivory. And I think CMBYN works well, but from what I've heard, the director saved the script. So while I won't be mad at CMBYN getting something, and lord knows James Ivory deserves a career achievement award, I don't know that it *should* get screenplay. Molly's Game was 80% great (and I wish Jessica Chastain were up instead of Meryl), but I'll give this to the Disaster Artist, which was surprisingly good (not mad about Franco being left out, though.)

CMBYN has won the Scripter, BAFTA, and WGA (with no eligibility weirdness this year), so this seems pretty sure.

Original Screenplay
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele - will win
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig - should win
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

Hmph. This one pains me. Martin is my favorite playwright (I just re-watched Hangmen yesterday and god, he's brilliant.) But I'm giving this to Greta by a hair because Lady Bird is so note-perfect, and Three Billboards, is like 75% brilliant.

Get Out won the WGA (plus a couple of critics groups), and I think it has the lead in this category, as it isn't likely to win other things, and the academy would like to reward Peele's ideas here. That said, Three Billboards won the GG/BAFTA. (And its advertising did play up McDonagh's rhythms.)

Overlooked: Phantom Thread.

Cinematography
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins - should win, will win
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Is it my favorite Deakins cinematography of all time? No. (That would probably be the Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.) But I love him, and his work in Blade Runner is great and GIVE IT TO HIM ALREADY. The others are also all great, and I can't wait till a woman wins this one. Hoyte van Hoytema deserves some special commendation for all that IMAX spitfire footage. Deakins has the guild award, BAFTA, and a couple of critics groups so far.

Overlooked: Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread.

Best Documentary Feature
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail”
“Faces Places” - Will Win
“Icarus”
“Last Men in Aleppo”
“Strong Island”

I'm still not over Jane's snub. Jane won EVERYTHING ELSE WITH GOOD REASON. Including the PGA. The four times Jane didn't win, Face Places did. Hrmph.

Best Foreign Language Film
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile) - will win
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)

I have no opinion on what should win here. The Square has a pretty good shot, but I feel like there's been a real push on campaigning for Fantastic Woman the last couple of months. Overlooked is probably BPM/First they Killed my Father/Thelma, but I've yet to see them, so...

The Square won the EFA, but Fantastic Woman won the Indie.

Film Editing
“Baby Driver”
“Dunkirk” - Should win, will win
“I, Tonya”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

I'm still pissed I, Tonya is up for editing and not best picture. I think this is Dunkirk's award, with the time puzzle box structure being the type of impressive editing lay people notice. Plus Dunkirk won the drama ACE Eddie. I think the closest competition is I, Tonya, which took the comedy Eddie, and won at the Indies, and which relies so much on the edit to strike the right tone. Baby Driver won the BAFTA, and tied with Dunkirk for the CCAs, but I think it has a better shot in sound mixing, just because it isn't as serious a film, even though it also has those flashy car chase/song edits.

Sound Editing
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk” - should win, will win
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Jesus Christ those planes are terrifying.

Dunkirk won the edit guild award for score, and had two other nominations. Blade Runner won effects/foley in sound editing with two other nominations. Baby Driver and Shape of Water each had 3 noms, no wins. Interestingly, Baby Driver is the clear 2nd favorite among prognosticators, above Blade Runner. (The other guild winners were War for Planet of the Apes (dialogue) and Greatest Showman (for Musical).

Sound Mixing
“Baby Driver” - should win
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk” - will win.
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

WHY IS PHANTOM THREAD NOT IN THIS CATEGORY. THE TOAST, PEOPLE.

I'm VERY torn on this category. Musicals often win mixing, so Baby Driver *might* pull ahead of Dunkirk and split the category here. And I think the way the background noise was mixed into the soundtrack is quite clever, which is why it might pull out a win here (it's clearly admired, with its surprise multiple nominations.) But popular opinion is that Dunkirk will take both. And Dunkirk did take the CAS, plus the BAFTA for both.

Production Design
“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau - should win, will win

I wonder if Sarah and Katie do personal homes?

Shape won the period ADG (although Blade Runner took fantasy.) Plus Shape took the BAFTA and the CCA. The other 3 were all period/fantasy nominees for ADG.

Overlooked: Logan (the contemporary ADG winner).

Original Score
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood - should win
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat - will win
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

Shape of Water is... not Alexandre Desplat's best work. But he's taken the BAFTA, GG, and CCA. Jonny Greenwood only took the LAFC.

Overlooked: Jane, Blade Runner. Probably Good Time.

Original Song
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens - should win
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez - will win
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

This is a tricky one. Coco is a bit of an earworm, in a clearly-very-loved film about the love of music. This is Me is from a proper (and very popular) musical, so I could see the old guard wanting to play to that, even if Pasek and Paul can't write a song to save their lives. Plus, Keala Settle is awesome. This is me took the GG, Remember Me only took the CCA. Maybe politics will shine through with Stand Up for Something. Or maybe folks will realize that Mudbound should get SOMETHING. Mystery of Love is easily the most well-liked among critics.

I think Remember Me Takes it. But This is Me could very easily spoil.

Overlooked: Visions of Gideon. But otherwise, Jump from Cynthia Erivo for Step? Tell Me How Long/Kristen Bell/Chasing Coral? Prayers for this World/Cher/Cries from Syria? Best I Can/Michael Cera and Sharon van Etten/Dina? Probably Evermore from Beauty and the Beast? (I haven't heard most of these.)

Makeup and Hair
“Darkest Hour” - should win, will win
“Victoria and Abdul”
“Wonder”

This is a category that could use 5. I, Tonya's hair? It's Pennywise? Guardians of the Galaxy? Blade Runner! Star Wars! Shape of Water! Atomic Blonde! Come on folks.

Darkest Hour won the period award and effects at the guild, the CCA, and the BAFTA.

Costume Design
“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges - should win, will win
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

My god. A year without Colleen Atwood.

Shape of Water pulled a *VERY* surprise upset in the period category at the guild awards, but Phantom Thread got the BAFTA and CCA. And the dresses are displayed so lovingly! How does it not take this one? The only other guild nominee in the group is Beauty and the Beat for fantasy.

Overlooked: Wonder Woman, I Tonya.

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049 - should win
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes - will win

I haven't seen Planet of the Apes 3, so I'm at a disadvantage here. Based on the first two, it should probably take it? It won the VES and CCA. Blade Runner took the BAFTA though, and that sex scene was really remarkable, not to mention memorable. I might be talking myself into thinking that Blade Runner takes this one. Hmm...

Overlooked: Okja, I assume? And Dunkirk, which won for supporting effects at the VES. Maybe also Valerian.

Animated Short
“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant - will win. Ugh.
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon - should win.
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

I LOVE GARDEN PARTY SO MUCH. Unfortunately, I think the smart money is on Dear Basketball (thank Glen Keane and John Williams), but I certainly hope Negative Space upsets (it's my second favorite).

[Speaking of the animated shorts, why on EARTH weren't all the highly commended shorts taken from the actual shortlist? I would have rather re-watched In a Heartbeat or Life Smartphone (a 2016 SFIFF pick), or seen Fox and the Whale, rather than that terrible racist dragon short.]

Dear Basketball won the Annie. Revolting Rhymes did get a special production honor from the Annies, and Negative Space also scored a nom there.

Overlooked: World of Tomorrow 2: The Burden of Other People's Thoughts.

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel - will win
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

All the docs I watched from the shortlist were left off here, so I have no opinion. I hear Heaven is the most liked, followed by Heroine and Traffic Stop. If it isn't Heaven, then I think it'll be Heroine.

Edith +Eddie won the IDA and was nominated for the CinemaEye (along with Heroine), so it could upset? It seems the most critically reviled, though.

Overlooked: *I* didn't like it, but The Rabbit Hunt, which won the CinemaEye. I'd say Ten Meter Tower, which was on the shortlist, and nominated for a CinemaEye.

Best Live Action Short Film
“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk - will win
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

Didn't get a chance to see these this year. I hear DeKalb is the most loved, and this was with voting closing before Parkland.  The Silent Child seems to be second-favorite among critics.

There are no precursors that include these, so... who knows. Overlooked: how about Cowboy Dave, which won the BAFTA? (Haven't seen it.)

2017 JWD awards

Welp. It's February. Modern Cinema and Mostly British are on, so my time to catch up on 2017 films is limited. I'll go with what I've got, and hopefully catch a few more before March 4th.

A few things got some year-end recognition aren't properly out till 2018, so I'm saving these for next year: The Rider, Paddington 2, and The Death of Stalin.

Previous years: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016

Best Film
Lady Bird
God's Own Country
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
Lady Macbeth
I Tonya
Call Me By Your Name
Molly's Game
The Florida Project
Una
Three Billboards
A Dragon Arrives!
Get Out
The Shape of Water

(Notable Omissions: Mudbound, The Post, Thelma, Personal Shopper, Okja, Good Time, Hostiles, First they Killed My Father, Columbus, BPM, A Quiet Passion, A Ghost Story)

Best Popcorn Flick
Wonder Woman
Colossal
Atomic Blonde
Their Finest
Handsome Devil
Baby Driver
Thor Ragnarok
The Incredible Jessica James
The Disaster Artist
The Beguiled
The Lure

(Notable Omissions: Girls Trip, Greatest Showman, Logan Lucky, War for Planet of the Apes, Valerian)

Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Saorsie Ronan, Lady Bird
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Florence Pugh, Lady Macbeth
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Rooney Mara, Una
Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread

(Notable Omissions: Ahn Seo-hyun, Okja; Paula Beer, Frantz; Ruth Wilson, Dark River; Haley Lu Richardson, Columbus; Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion; Carey Mulligan, Mudbound; Meryl Streep, The Post)

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Ben Mendelsohn, Una
Josh O'Connor, God's Own Country
Alec Secareanu, God's Own Country
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Gray Oldman, Darkest Hour

(Notable Omissions: Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger; Christian Bale, Hostiles; Jason Clarke, Mudbound; Nahuel Perez Biscayart, BPM; Robert Pattinson, Good Time; Tom Hanks, The Post; Paddy Considine, Journeyman)

Best Supporting Actress
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Betty Gabriel, Get Out
Allison Janney, I Tonya
Anne Heche, My Friend Dahmer
Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
Naomi Acki, Lady Macbeth

And the Judi Dench brief impact award goes to Helen McCrory - Their Finest

(Notable Omissions: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound; Tatiana Maslany, Stronger, Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip, Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!, Taliah Lennice Webster, Good Time, Hong Chau, Downsizing)

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Fionn Whitehead, Dunkirk
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Richard Jenkins, Shape of Water
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
Jake Lacy, Their Finest
Idris Elba, Molly's Game
Ian Hart, God's Own Country
Tracy Letts, Lady Bird
Barry Keoghan, Killing of a Sacred Deer

(Notable Omissions: Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound; Jason Mitchell, Mudbound; Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World)

Best Ensemble
Get Out
Big Sick
Lady Bird
Three Billboards
Dunkirk
Shape of Water
Their Finest
I, Tonya
God's Own Country

(Notable Omissions: Mudbound, The Post)

Oscar Nomination Predictions

It's that time! Let's Do This:

[Update: bolded = actual nominees. A passable 90/122. 118/122 if you count spoilers. The only 4 out of left field were Loving Vincent, Victoria & Abdul for makeup, Star Wars for Score, and Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 for short doc.]

Best Picture
Locks:
Call Me By Your Name*
Dunkirk*
Get Out*
I, Tonya*
Lady Bird*
The Shape of Water*
Three Billboards*

Up to 10 nominees:
The Big Sick
The Post
Wonder Woman*

Spoilers:
Molly's Game*
Phantom Thread*
Darkest Hour
The Florida Project*

*if I could pick (of the things that have a shot at a nomination. My awards coming later.)

[I'm honestly shocked Darkest Hour is in there over I, Tonya (and bummed. I really like I Tonya). Someone on Twitter thought perhaps Tim League was dinged as distributor for allowing a toxic environment at Fantastic Fest and the Drafthouse and then bungling the fix.

But YAY Phantom Thread!!!]

Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Sally Hawkins, Shape of Water
Saorsie Ronan, Lady Bird
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game

Spoilers:
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul

[Ah well. I was pulling for you, Jessica.]

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Tom Hanks, The Post

Spoilers:
James Franco, Disaster Artist
Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel

Before the GGs I would've switched Hanks and Franco. But perhaps enough people voted before the bad press reminder? And Hollywood loves a Hollywood story... (Maybe Gyllenhaal actually has a shot? I mean, has Roman J Israel even come out?)

[Well, I was right about Franco...]

Supporting Actress
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Mary J Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, Shape of Water

Spoilers:
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

I'm really not sure about slot 5. I hope Hong Chau makes it in. I've heard too many polarizing things about downsizing to feel she's in the lead, although SAG is the largest block of voters, but she was SO FANTASTIC in Inherent Vice that I have my fingers crossed for her.

[Whoa. I really didn't expect Holly Hunter to be bumped. (That's too bad - she was my favorite part of the Big Sick.) But hey! Lesley Manville! She is FAB in PT.] 

Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Willem Dafoe, Florida Project
Richard Jenkins, Shape of Water
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Spoilers:
Michael Stuhlbarg, everything, but especially CMBYN
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name

Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards

(I'll be tickled if it is this group. I really like all of these folks!)

Spoilers:
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Luca Guadagnino, CMBYN

[Yay Phantom Thread! I'm totally okay with that swap.]

Screenplay - Original
Lady Bird
Shape of Water
Big Sick
Three Billboards
Get Out

Spoilers:
I, Tonya
Phantom Thread
The Post

Screenplay - Adapted
Molly's Game
Mudbound
CMBYN
Logan
Disaster Artist

Spoilers:
I.... honest to god think that'll be the 5. Logan is random, but I can't imagine what would replace it, and it's got two of the big pre-award noms. Wonder Woman? That's the only other adapted screenplay I can even think of.

Animated
Are we in a 5 year? Christ.
Boss Baby
Lego Batman
Coco
Ferdinand
Despicable Me 3

Spoilers:
The Breadwinner
Mary & the Witch's Flower
Too bad Loving Vincent isn't eligible... (although I've seen it on several lists. Do I have that wrong?)

[Turns out it was eligible! I had bad info.]

Documentary
Jane
Chasing Coral
City of Ghosts
Cries from Syria
Kedi

Spoilers:
Strong Island
Abacus
An Inconvenient Sequel
Dawson City (not sure if this is eligible?)
Faces, Places
Ex Libris
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo

*shrug* (Jane! Jane!)

[What a TOTALLY BIZARRE set of nominees. Jane WON the PGA, NBR, and Critics Choice awards, plus the audience award at Cinema Eye, and was nominated for the WGA, BAFTA, ACE Eddie, and was shortlisted for DOC NY. I honestly thought it was a lock after the PGA/WGA.]

Foreign
A Fantastic Woman
In the Fade
The Square
Loveless
The Insult

Spoilers:
Foxtrot
On Body and Soul
Felicite
The Wound

It's still bizarre to me that First They Killed My Father, BPM, and Thelma were left off. I mean, Raw, I could understand...

[Whoa. VERY surprised In The Fade didn't make it.]

Editing
Three Billboards
Dunkirk
Get Out
Shape of Water
Baby Driver

Spoilers:
Molly's Game
I, Tonya
Blade Runner
The Post
Lady Bird
CMBYN

I've swapped Get Out and Molly's Game back and forth several times. Were it just editing, I could see the Academy going Molly's Game, but editing so often goes along with runs of other nominations. (my pure editing nod here is Baby Driver, because I do think they'll go for that; it's so fun and flashy.) I doubt CMBYN will make it in, since it's only up for an indie and not an ACE Eddie, unless it does a surprising sweep. I, Tonya also has a shot here.

[Pleased with this group. Although how bizarre for I, Tonya to make it in here and not Best Picture.]

Cinematography
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
Mudbound (PLEASE)
Shape of Water
Darkest Hour

Spoilers:
CMBYN
Three Billboards
Florida Project

[YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

It only took 651 nominations to get here.]

Costumes
Phantom Thread
Shape of Water
Murder on the Orient Express
I, Tonya
Beauty and the Beast

Spoilers:
Wonder Woman
Blade Runner
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Greatest Showman
Victoria & Abdul

Makeup
Wonder
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya

Spoilers:
Guardians of the Galaxy
I mean... Ghost in the Shell or Bright if we want to continue the Suicide Squad streak.

Not predicted:
Victoria & Abdul

[I... really?]

Production Design
Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Blade Runner
Beauty and the Beast

Spoilers:
Murder on the Orient Express
Downsizing
Phantom Thread
Wonder Woman

Visual Effects
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
War for the Planet of the Apes
Star Wars
Guardians

Spoilers:
Kong
Shape of Water
Valerian

Score
Phantom Thread
Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post

Spoilers:
Three Billboards
Blade Runner

Not Predicted:
Star Wars

[Really. You all went with John William's Star Wars and not the Post? Okay.] 

Song

“Remember Me” - Coco

“This Is Me” - The Greatest Showman - Keala Settle

"Stand Up for Something" - Marshall - Andra Day

“Mystery Of Love” - Call Me by Your Name - Sufjan Stevens

“Evermore” - Beauty and the Beast

Spoilers

“Mighty River” - Mudbound - Mary J Blige

“Prayers for This World” – Cries From Syria – Cher

“Tell Me How Long” – Chasing Coral – Kristen Bell

“Jump” – Step - Cynthia Erivo 

“Truth to Power” – An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power – OneRepublic

“Dancing Through the Wreckage” – Served Like a Girl – Pat Benatar

“Home” - Ferdinand
“The Star” - The Star

Eesh. Like 90 on the shortlist, and somethings that are nominated elsewhere (Dina) aren't eligible. WHO KNOWS. (Step! Let Step be an oscar nominee!)

[Cool beans. I only swapped in Beauty and the Beast at the last minute. Yay Mary J Blige for becoming a double nominee!]

Mary J. Blige is the first person to be nominated for Best Original Song and Best Supporting Actress in the same year. Barbra Streisand just threw a beige pillow at a French door.

— Louis Virtel (@louisvirtel) January 23, 2018

Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes

Spoilers:
Star Wars
Wonder Woman
Three Billboards
Coco
Transformers
Thor

Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Star Wars
Shape of Water
Greatest Showman

Spoilers:
Wonder Woman
Baby Driver
Blade Runner

Short Doc
Ten Meter Tower
Edith + Eddie
Heroin(e)
116 Cameras
Alone

Spoilers:
Traffic Stop
Ram Dass, Going Home
Knife Skills

(I have ACTUALLY seen 3 of these so far, so I have a clearer idea here than on live action...)

Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

[WOW. The Academy voters are PISSED at the NYTimes.]

Short Live
I have ABSOLUTELY no idea.
DeKalb Elementary
Facing Mecca
The Silent Child
Witnesses
Lost Face

Spoilers:
My Nephew Emmett
Rise of a Star
Icebox
The Eleven O'Clock
Watu Wote/All of Us

Short Animated
Dear Basketball
Negative Space
Lou
Fox and the Whale
In a Heartbeat

Spoilers:
Revolting Rhymes
Lost Property Office
Garden Party
Fox and the Whale
Cradle