Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Predicting the Oscar Noms

I have given up on catching up on 2013 films before the Oscar nominations come out. There is no more time. I go to the theater tonight and have plans tomorrow. C'est la vie. I will get around to my top 10 of 2013 soon (I'm REALLY holding off on that till I see Her and Inside Llewyn Davis, and preferably some combination of The Great Beauty, The Hunt, Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Blue is the Warmest Color and Nebraska) as well as what *I* think should be up for the Oscars.

But, for now, what do I think will actually get the nod?

Short Animated
The only shoo-in here is Get a Horse! and there are 9 other possibilities, so I'm kinda picking at random (not having seen any of these):
Get a Horse!
Gloria Victoria
Mr. Hublot
Subconcious Password
The Missing Scarf

(Alternates: Feral, Hollow Land, Possessions, Requiem for a Romance, Room on the Broom)

Short Live
Again - no idea, having yet to see these...
The Voorman Problem
Tiger Boy

(Alternates: Throat Song, Aquel No Era Yo, Avant Que De Tout Perdre, Dva, Pitaako)

Short Documentary
Hey - I am confident that Slomo will be nominated here, as it won an IDA and was nominated for a CinemaEye. Huzzah for having a feeling about 1! However, despite the fact that CinemaEye nominated 15 other doc shorts, none of those others overlap with Oscar's shortlist. Fabulous.
Facing Fear
Prison Terminal

(Alternates: Karama Has No Walls, Jujitsu-ing Reality, The Lady in Number 6)

Best Sound - Mixing and Editing
Lord God I have no idea. The CAS nominations were today, for mixing. The Sound Editors Guild doesn't announce nominations till the 18th. And I don't know if other award show dropped this category this year or what. Last year the BAFTAs, BFCA, and Satellites all had sound nominees, but I didn't catch them this year if they did. The only film I know to have won any sound awards at all this year was Upstream Color (deservedly, but unlikely to repeat at the Oscars.)

Sound Mixing:
Captain Phillips
Lone Survivor
Inside Llewyn Davis
Iron Man 3

(Alternates: Rush, All Is Lost, 12 Years a Slave, Pacific Rim, Man of Steel)

Sound Editing:
Captain Phillips
All Is Lost
Pacific Rim

(Alternates: Man of Steel, Iron Man 3, Star Trek)

Ah yes, a shortlist of 75. Ok - Let it Go and Ordinary Love seem like safe bets. Probably also Atlas and Sweeter Than Fiction. Of the 5 possible Gatsby songs, they seem to be pushing Young and Beautiful. Please Mr. Kennedy from Inside Llewyn Davis is ineligible. So:
Atlas - Coldplay - Hunger Games
Let It Go - Indina Menzel - Frozen
Sweeter Than Fiction - Taylor Swift - One Chance (Which I still don't believe has been released in the US)
Young and Beautiful - Lana Del Rey - Great Gatsby

(Alternates: Happy - Pharrell - Despicable Me 2, Last Mile Home - Kings of Leon - August Osage County, The Moon Song - Karen O - Her, Amen - Alex Ebert - All Is Lost, A Little Party Never Killed Nobody - Fergie - Great Gatsby)

Finally, we're into the categories with some actual precursors to go on.
All Is Lost (the GG win doesn't help, but the nomination may have)
12 Years a Slave
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Book Thief (weird, but nominated by the GGs and BAFTA, so I feel like it may have momentum)

[ED UPDATE 1/14/14: Apparently Inside Llewyn Davis is ineligible? So, I add Saving Mr. Banks, and put Frozen in the alternate spot.]

(Alternates: Saving Mr. Banks (ugh), Captain Phillips, Her)

Visual Effects
Another one with the guild nominations today. Gravity led, with Pacific Rim and then the Hobbit following.
Pacific Rim
The Hobbit
Star Trek
Iron Man 3

(Alternates: The Lone Ranger (probably should be nominated, but poor box office. The guild at least recognized it with a nom.), Elysium)

Production Design
Production Design and Costumes are always a little harder to predict, because the guilds separate out nominees by Period, Fantasy and Contemporary categories. However, it has led to one of my favorite nominations this season: Wolf of Wall Street for contemporary production design. Go home, art directors, you're drunk. (Before you argue that maybe anything post 1960 is contemporary, American Hustle is counted as period. So unless the cutoff is 1985...)
Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Hobbit
Wolf of Wall Street

(Alternates: Her, Inside Llewyn Davis. I refuse to put Saving Mr. Banks.)

Hunger Games
American Hustle
Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave
Saving Mr. Banks. *SIGH.*

(Alternates: Dallas Buyers Club, Oz, Her.)

Oh, you totally bizarre mis-mash of a shortlist.
American Hustle
Hunger Games
Dallas Buyers Club

(Alternates: Great Gatsby, Hansel & Gretel, Jackass)

This is such a weird category anymore. They so need to split into directed animation and traditional cinematography. I'd say 12 Years, Inside Llewyn Davis, and Gravity are all shoo-ins. After that, you've got Nebraska, Captain Phillips (which got its only two nominations late in the season - so upsurge in momentum?), Prisoners (GIVE ROGER ONE ALREADY), All Is Lost, and the Indies had the excellent taste to nominate Spring Breakers. I'm gonna go with:
12 Years a Slave
Inside Llewyn Davis

(Alternates: Captain Phillips, All Is Lost)

Ah, one where the guild nominates 10 to the Oscar's 5. I always have a tricky time on editing, because while Rush would seem a shoo-in, these tend to follow the best picture nominees. Except that Oscar only nominates, you know, 5 best edited to the 8-10 best picture nominees. Helpful.
12 Years a Slave
Wolf of Wall Street
American Hustle
Captain Phillips

(Alternates: Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska)

Foregin Film
Another odd category, as almost every critics group picked either The Act of Killing or Blue is the Warmest Color, and neither is eligible here. A few even picked Wadjda or The Past - also both ineligible. So is Gloria or the Wind Also Rises. Of those that are eligible, both The Great Beauty and the Hunt have received several nods. The Grandmaster and Broken Circle Breakdown got one and two, respectively. So:
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
Broken Circle Breakdown
The Grandmaster
As for the last one... I've heard of The Notebook (it was picked up for distribution) and Two Lives (playing SF soon). So, I'll go with Two Lives.

(Alternates: The Notebook, Omar, The Missing Picture.)

Oooh - this one is tough. 15 film shortlist. The Act of Killing is the only certainty. After that, Stories We Tell, 20 Feet From Stardom, Blackfish, The Square, and Tim's Vermeer have all received awards, and all have good recognition. Cutie and the Boxer and The Armstrong Lie have a few nominations, and The Crash Reel just got a DGA nom. The PGA only nominated Life According to Sam, which is not helpful in narrowing things down.
The Act of Killing
Stories We Tell
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom

(Alternates: Tim's Vermeer (I feel like this has momentum recently), The Armstrong Lie)

[ED NOTE: Sadly, I heard that the boy Sam in Life According to Sam passed away yesterday of his progeria.]

The Wind Rises
Despicable Me 2
Monsters University
and I hope to god Ernest & Celestine over the Croods.

(Alternats: Croods, Epic, Cloudy with a Chance)

Screenplay is always a strange one to guess, because half the scripts are ineligible for the guild nominations. Nevertheless:
Screenplay - Original
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Inside Llewyn Davis

(Alternates: Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity)

Screenplay - Adapted
12 Years a Slave
Wolf of Wall Street
August Osage County
Captain Phillips

(Alternates: Before Midnight, Lone Survivor)

Last year, I was tickled pink that David O. Russell made it in over Tom Hooper. This year, I'm hoping Spike Jonze makes it in over him or Paul Greengrass.
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, Wolf of Wall Street
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

(Alternates: Spike Jonze - Her, the Coens - Inside Llewyn Davis, Alexander Payne - Nebraska)

Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
Daniel Bruhl - Rush
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave

(Alternates: Jonah Hill - Wolf of Wall Street, James Gandolfini - Enough Said, James Franco - Spring Breakers)

Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Julia Roberts - August Osage County (ugh)
June Squibb - Nebraska
Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
Oprah and Sally Hawkins have split the rest. I think it'll go Oprah, like the SAGs.

(Alternates: Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine. I really don't see Lea Seydoux or Octavia Spencer getting in here.)

Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
Leonardo DiCaprio - Wolf of Wall Street
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club

(Alternates: Robert Redford - All Is Lost (could easily swap with Leo), Christian Bale - American Hustle)

Amy Adams - American Hustle
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks
Judi Dench - Philomena
Sandra Bullock - Gravity

(Alternates: Meryl Streep - August Osage County. Honestly? I don't think anyone else is close. But. Brie Larson - Short Term 12, Adele Exarchopoulos - Blue is the Warmest Color, Greta Gerwig - Frances Ha.)

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
Wolf of Wall Street

The above are pretty sure, I think. I think Fruitvale Station is totally out at this point, sadly. (As is The Butler.) Then you have the crop of Nebraska, Philomena, Rush, Dallas Buyers Club, Saving Mr. Banks, and Blue Jasmine. That group all has at least 1 nomination from the PGA, BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and/or BFCA. Dallas and Blue Jasmine only have two nominations a piece from those groups, and I don't think they were particularly strong contenders anyway. So I will say if:
8 nominations: include Nebraska
9: Saving Mr. Banks (ugh ugh ugh)
10: Rush

There we go. Last year, I predicted 89 correct outright and 103 including first pick alternates. Let's see if I beat it on Thursday. 

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