THAT WAS THE MOST AMAZING THING THAT HAS EVER HAPPENED.
Yes, it SUCKS that the Moonlight producers didn't have their names called and that they didn't get their proper moment in the spotlight (pun only slightly intended). But GODDAMN if that wasn't the most dramatic way for Moonlight to upset La La Land. I'm so happy it won. That movie is a revelation.
Best picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land - Will Win
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight - Should win, DID WIN
OH MY GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
Lead actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea - Did Win
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land,
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences - Will Win
What I said then: I'm giving this to Denzel by a hair, because actors make up the biggest bloc of oscar voters. But Casey Affleck has won more primary awards. I'm not sure who should win out of this group - they largely wouldn't be my picks - Denzel was good, but not great; Casey was brilliant, but a horrible human being, so I find myself going for Andrew (I see this almost as a co-nomination for Silence. Cough: https://letterboxd.com/harryrossi/list/2016-films-with-andrew-garfield-as-an-explicitly/)
Now: Poor Brie Larson. I maintain that Casey should have won for the Assassination of Jesse James, back before I'm Not There. This is still a shockingly weak category, especially given that the actress category had to cut Annette Benning and Amy Adams.
Lead actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle - Should Win
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land - Will Win, Did Win
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
What I said then: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Now: At least she looked nice. Isabelle was still better.
Supporting actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!!!!!!
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Supporting actress
Viola Davis, Fences - Will Win, Did Win
Naomie Harris, Moonlight - Should Win
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Best director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land - Will Win, Did Win
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight - Should Win
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
I stand by this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
THIS, however, is hilarious to me:
(I mean, props to the producers who handled that awful situation with grace, but Barry Jenkins should've won director full stop.)
Animated feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia - Will Win, Did Win
What I said then: Haven't seen My Life as a Zucchini or the Red Turtle, so hard to say what should win. I personally prefer Moana to Zootopia, but I can see why Zootopia will win.
Now: I still really want to see the Red Turtle
Animated short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper - Will win, should win, Did Win
Adapted screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight - Will win, should win, Did Win
Original screenplay
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster - Should win
Manchester by the Sea - Will win, Did Win
I stand by this: The Lobster and 20th Century Women should be up for best picture.
Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion - Will win, Did Win
Moonlight - Should win
Silence
What I said then: I'm going with the guild on this one. The popular opinion is that La La Land will take it, but I JUST CAN'T. I HATE La La Land's cinematography. And the experts thought Roger Deakins would win a few years back and then he didn't. Moonlight won a number of precursors, so there's some hope there. If La La Land wins this one, I will fucking break things. Should win is tricky. I'm giving it to Moonlight by a hair. I do really like Silence's too. (I'm a sucker for foggy landscapes). Lion's was interesting, but I'm mostly hoping it'll beat LA. (Beat LA!)
Now: I'm still fucking angry about this one. The lighting, particularly in that opening, was godawful.
Best documentary feature
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America - Will win, Did Win
Best documentary short subject
4.1 Miles
Extremist
Joe’s Violin - Will win
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets, Did Win
What I said then: Extremis is more nominated, but apparently Joe's Violin more crowd-pleasing/oscar baity. That said, an anti-Trump vote for White Helmets could carry the day. But that may be confined to the foreign category below.
Now: I'm good with the anti-trump message. (Also - every time anyone in the LALALA crew says it was hard to make LLL, they should be forced to spend a day filming in Syria.)
Best live-action short film
Ennemis Interieurs - Will win
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing Did Win
Timecode
What I said then: Timecode as spoiler for winning a palme.
Now: Did.... anyone see this coming?
Best foreign language film
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
Tanna
The Salesman - Will Win, Did Win
Toni Erdmann
What I said then: ELLE SHOULD WIN. Harumph. (Not to mention Korea not even SUBMITTING The Handmaiden.) The Salesman has built a second phase anti-trump narrative, so I think it has edged Toni Erdmann, which had been in the lead. I still really want to see Tanna. I keep missing it.
Film editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge Did Win
Hell or High Water
La La Land - Will win
Moonlight - Should Win (although Arrival's editing is great, and Hacksaw Ridge's battle scenes are, too)
This was SOOOO unexpected! (And my first serious glimmer of hope that LLL might not take the cake). The editing on those battle scenes was tremendous. Still think Moonlight was better, (and that having the first black female win for editor would've been wonderful), but I'm okay with this one.
Sound editing
Arrival - Did Win
Deep Water Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge - Will Win, Should Win
La La Land
Sully
SOOO surprised! Thrilled Arrival got something. And I had mixed up the category Kevin O'Connell was nominated for, or I would have put Hacksaw as should win below. But I stand by thinking Hacksaw would win editing, since it took the guild prize
Sound mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge Did Win
La La Land - Will Win
Rogue One - Should Win
13 Hours
I SCREAMED SO LOUDLY AT THIS YOU HAVE NO IDEA. The Academy recognized that La La Land's sound was terrible! Kevin O'Connell - who is a legend - finally won and had the sweetest speech. Good things happen!!
Production design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail Caesar! - Should Win (although I haven't seen fantastic beasts/passengers and passengers won for fantasy at the ADGs)
La La Land - Will win, Did Win
Passengers
I stand by this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. The fact that the Handmaiden is not nominated here invalidates this category. Also! Normally this category is heavily dominated by the period nominees from the ADG but none (!) were nominated this go round (Jackie (so great), Cafe Society, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, and Hidden Figures - the winner in that group.)
Original score
Jackie
La La Land - Will win, Did Win
Lion
Moonlight - Should win
Passengers
And this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I HATE the La La Land score. (Jackie's is also amazing, and Lion's is really good.) Here. Go listen to this and this as a palate cleanser.
Original song
Audition, La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling!, Trolls
City of Stars, La La Land - Will win Did Win
The Empty Chair, Jim: The James Foley Story
How Far I’ll Go, Moana - Should win
And this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Come on. Give it to Lin. Let the man EGOT.
Makeup and hair
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond - Will win, should win
Suicide Squad Did Win
What I said then: Star Trek won the guild for effects (suicide squad won character), but the Man Called Ove team won a couple of years back for the Man that Climbed Out the Window and Wandered Away, or whatever that movie was. But the Jaylah/Sofia Boutella alien was great.
Now: Everything is terrible forever. WHO DOES THIS TO COMMON:
Costume design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Did Win
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie - Should win
La La Land - Will Win
What I said then: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH At least Coleen Atwood won't get it again? The other winners in the guild awards (Hidden Figures and Doctor Strange) weren't even nominated. My favorite - Love & Friendship - was only up for a Critics Choice. I call bullshit. Gold Derby actually has Jackie winning this. Pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease.
Now: I was mistaken in how many oscars Coleen has actually won! It's now only 4. I'm okay with this! I do actually like her work, the costumes from Fantastic Bests looked interesting, Harry Potter now has an oscar, and LLL didn't win.
Visual effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Jungle Book - Will win (probably should - haven't seen it) Did Win
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
15/24. That's the worst I've done in a long time and I am so, so happy about it!
Yes, it SUCKS that the Moonlight producers didn't have their names called and that they didn't get their proper moment in the spotlight (pun only slightly intended). But GODDAMN if that wasn't the most dramatic way for Moonlight to upset La La Land. I'm so happy it won. That movie is a revelation.
Best picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land - Will Win
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight - Should win, DID WIN
OH MY GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
Lead actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea - Did Win
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land,
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences - Will Win
What I said then: I'm giving this to Denzel by a hair, because actors make up the biggest bloc of oscar voters. But Casey Affleck has won more primary awards. I'm not sure who should win out of this group - they largely wouldn't be my picks - Denzel was good, but not great; Casey was brilliant, but a horrible human being, so I find myself going for Andrew (I see this almost as a co-nomination for Silence. Cough: https://letterboxd.com/harryrossi/list/2016-films-with-andrew-garfield-as-an-explicitly/)
Now: Poor Brie Larson. I maintain that Casey should have won for the Assassination of Jesse James, back before I'm Not There. This is still a shockingly weak category, especially given that the actress category had to cut Annette Benning and Amy Adams.
Lead actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle - Should Win
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land - Will Win, Did Win
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
What I said then: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Now: At least she looked nice. Isabelle was still better.
Supporting actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!!!!!!
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Supporting actress
Viola Davis, Fences - Will Win, Did Win
Naomie Harris, Moonlight - Should Win
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Best director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land - Will Win, Did Win
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight - Should Win
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
I stand by this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
THIS, however, is hilarious to me:
(I mean, props to the producers who handled that awful situation with grace, but Barry Jenkins should've won director full stop.)
Animated feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia - Will Win, Did Win
What I said then: Haven't seen My Life as a Zucchini or the Red Turtle, so hard to say what should win. I personally prefer Moana to Zootopia, but I can see why Zootopia will win.
Now: I still really want to see the Red Turtle
Animated short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper - Will win, should win, Did Win
Adapted screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight - Will win, should win, Did Win
Original screenplay
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster - Should win
Manchester by the Sea - Will win, Did Win
I stand by this: The Lobster and 20th Century Women should be up for best picture.
Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion - Will win, Did Win
Moonlight - Should win
Silence
What I said then: I'm going with the guild on this one. The popular opinion is that La La Land will take it, but I JUST CAN'T. I HATE La La Land's cinematography. And the experts thought Roger Deakins would win a few years back and then he didn't. Moonlight won a number of precursors, so there's some hope there. If La La Land wins this one, I will fucking break things. Should win is tricky. I'm giving it to Moonlight by a hair. I do really like Silence's too. (I'm a sucker for foggy landscapes). Lion's was interesting, but I'm mostly hoping it'll beat LA. (Beat LA!)
Now: I'm still fucking angry about this one. The lighting, particularly in that opening, was godawful.
Best documentary feature
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America - Will win, Did Win
Best documentary short subject
4.1 Miles
Extremist
Joe’s Violin - Will win
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets, Did Win
What I said then: Extremis is more nominated, but apparently Joe's Violin more crowd-pleasing/oscar baity. That said, an anti-Trump vote for White Helmets could carry the day. But that may be confined to the foreign category below.
Now: I'm good with the anti-trump message. (Also - every time anyone in the LALALA crew says it was hard to make LLL, they should be forced to spend a day filming in Syria.)
Best live-action short film
Ennemis Interieurs - Will win
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing Did Win
Timecode
What I said then: Timecode as spoiler for winning a palme.
Now: Did.... anyone see this coming?
Best foreign language film
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
Tanna
The Salesman - Will Win, Did Win
Toni Erdmann
What I said then: ELLE SHOULD WIN. Harumph. (Not to mention Korea not even SUBMITTING The Handmaiden.) The Salesman has built a second phase anti-trump narrative, so I think it has edged Toni Erdmann, which had been in the lead. I still really want to see Tanna. I keep missing it.
Now: I stand by the above. But Anousheh Ansari reading Asghar Farhadi's statement was beautiful.
Film editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge Did Win
Hell or High Water
La La Land - Will win
Moonlight - Should Win (although Arrival's editing is great, and Hacksaw Ridge's battle scenes are, too)
This was SOOOO unexpected! (And my first serious glimmer of hope that LLL might not take the cake). The editing on those battle scenes was tremendous. Still think Moonlight was better, (and that having the first black female win for editor would've been wonderful), but I'm okay with this one.
Sound editing
Arrival - Did Win
Deep Water Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge - Will Win, Should Win
La La Land
Sully
SOOO surprised! Thrilled Arrival got something. And I had mixed up the category Kevin O'Connell was nominated for, or I would have put Hacksaw as should win below. But I stand by thinking Hacksaw would win editing, since it took the guild prize
Sound mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge Did Win
La La Land - Will Win
Rogue One - Should Win
13 Hours
I SCREAMED SO LOUDLY AT THIS YOU HAVE NO IDEA. The Academy recognized that La La Land's sound was terrible! Kevin O'Connell - who is a legend - finally won and had the sweetest speech. Good things happen!!
Production design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail Caesar! - Should Win (although I haven't seen fantastic beasts/passengers and passengers won for fantasy at the ADGs)
La La Land - Will win, Did Win
Passengers
I stand by this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. The fact that the Handmaiden is not nominated here invalidates this category. Also! Normally this category is heavily dominated by the period nominees from the ADG but none (!) were nominated this go round (Jackie (so great), Cafe Society, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, and Hidden Figures - the winner in that group.)
Original score
Jackie
La La Land - Will win, Did Win
Lion
Moonlight - Should win
Passengers
And this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I HATE the La La Land score. (Jackie's is also amazing, and Lion's is really good.) Here. Go listen to this and this as a palate cleanser.
Original song
Audition, La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling!, Trolls
City of Stars, La La Land - Will win Did Win
The Empty Chair, Jim: The James Foley Story
How Far I’ll Go, Moana - Should win
And this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Come on. Give it to Lin. Let the man EGOT.
Makeup and hair
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond - Will win, should win
Suicide Squad Did Win
What I said then: Star Trek won the guild for effects (suicide squad won character), but the Man Called Ove team won a couple of years back for the Man that Climbed Out the Window and Wandered Away, or whatever that movie was. But the Jaylah/Sofia Boutella alien was great.
Now: Everything is terrible forever. WHO DOES THIS TO COMMON:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Did Win
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie - Should win
La La Land - Will Win
What I said then: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH At least Coleen Atwood won't get it again? The other winners in the guild awards (Hidden Figures and Doctor Strange) weren't even nominated. My favorite - Love & Friendship - was only up for a Critics Choice. I call bullshit. Gold Derby actually has Jackie winning this. Pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease.
Now: I was mistaken in how many oscars Coleen has actually won! It's now only 4. I'm okay with this! I do actually like her work, the costumes from Fantastic Bests looked interesting, Harry Potter now has an oscar, and LLL didn't win.
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Jungle Book - Will win (probably should - haven't seen it) Did Win
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
15/24. That's the worst I've done in a long time and I am so, so happy about it!
