Wednesday, February 26, 2020

2019 JWD Awards

Late, because the year didn't seem over till seeing Portrait of a Lady on Fire.

Previous Years: 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 

2019 was an odd year. The year before was SO great, and this year, I just didn't see as much that I really loved. In part because I didn't see as much in total (it was often a hard year personally), and many things I heard wonderful things about weren't available to me (Mouthpiece). I have high hopes for 2020, though. 



Best Film:
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Parasite
A Hidden Life
The Souvenir
Peterloo
Aquarela
Anthropocene
The Farewell
The Nightingale
The Irishman

Best Popcorn Flick:
Ford v Ferrari
Climax
Knives Out
Booksmart
Ready or Not
Captain Marvel
Late Night

Film I'm Most Looking Forward To That I Missed:
Charlie Says
Fast Color
Fighting with My Family
Transit
High Flying Bird
Mouthpiece
The Body Remembers when the World Broke Open
Atlantics
Rocketman
Ad Astra
Us
I Lost My Body
Sunset

Best Debut Film:
Booksmart
Last Black Man in San Francisco
Les Miserables

Notable omissions: The Mustang, Native Son, Little Woods, Aniara, Atlantics, The Chambermaid, Honeyland, I Lost my Body, Arctic, Extra Ordinary

Best Actress
Aisling Franciosi - The Nightingale
Honor Swinton Byrne - The Souvenir
Karen Allen - Colewell
Zhao Tao - Ash is Purest White
Adele Haenel - Portrait
Noemie Merlant - Portrait
Awkwafina - The Farewell
Jessie Buckley - Wild Rose
Valerie Pachner - A Hidden Life

Notable Omissions: Elisabeth Moss - Her Smell, Lupita Nyong'o - Us, Masahiro Higashide - Asako I & II, Julianne Moore - Gloria Bell, Renee Zeelwegger - Judy, Cynthia Erivo - Harriet, Alfre Woodard - Clemency, Holliday Granger - Animals, Elizabeth Debicki - Vita & Virginia, Maev Beaty - Mouthpiece, Molly Shannon - Wild Nights with Emily, Mame Sane - Atlantics, Taylor Russell - Waves, Elizabeth Debicki - Vita & Virginia, Mary Kay Place - Diane

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Sandler - Uncut Gems
August Diehl - A Hidden Life
Christian Bale - Ford v Ferrari
George Mackay - 1917
Jimmy Fails - Last Black Man
Matt Damon - Ford v Ferrari
Robert de Niro - The Irishman
Tom Burke - The Souvenir

Notable Omissions: Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory, Jonathan Pryce - Two Popes, Andre Holland - High Flying Bird, Matthew McConaghey - Beach Bum, Aldis Hodge - Clemency, Taron Egerton - Rocketman, Brad Pitt - Ad Astra, Josh O'Connor - Only You, Franz Rogowski - Transit, Matthias Schoenaerts - The Mustang, Tom Mercier - Synonyms

Best Supporting Actress
Kaitlyn Dever - Booksmart
Emma Thompson - Late Night
Cho Yeo-Jeong - Parasite
Hannah Gross - Colewell
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Julia Butters - Once Upon a Time
Juliette Binoche - High Life
Julianne Nicholson - Monos
Park So-dam - Paradise
Idina Menzel - Uncut Gems
Luana Bajrami - Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Notable Omissions: Tessa - Little Woods, Laura Dern - Marriage Story, Octavia Spencer - Luce, Agness Deyn - Her Smell, Zazie Beetz - High Flying Bird

Best Supporting Actor
Jonathan Majors - Last Black Man in SF
Song Kang-Ho - Parasite
Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Andrew Scott - 1917
Rory Kinnear - Peterloo
Tracy Letts - Ford v Ferrari
Al Pacino - The Irishman

Notable Omissions: Keanu - Always be my maybe, Tom Hanks - Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Jack Lowden - Fighting with My Family, Jamie Bell - Rocketman, Kelvin Harrison Jr - Waves/Luce, Sam Rockwell - Richard Jewell, Jamie Bell - Rocketman

Best Ensemble
Parasite
Booksmart
Knives Out
Last Black Man in San Francisco
Parasite
The Irishman
Peterloo

Notable Omissions: Marriage Story, Dolemite, Rocketman, Birds of Passage, Wild Pear Tree, Diane

Best Documentary
Aquarela
Midnight Family
Anthropocene
Hail Satan?
Minute Bodies: Intimate World of F. Percy Smith
The Hidden City
The Seer and the Unseen

Notable Omissions: American Factory, Honeyland, Apollo 11, Biggest Little Farm, Knock Down the House, Elephant Queen, Midnight Traveler, Sea of Shadows, Tell Me Who I Am, Black Mother, The Cave, For Sama

Best Animated Film:
... I literally didn't see anything animated last year. Not sure how that happened. 

Best Foreign Film:
Parasite
Les Miserables
Monos
Lapu
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Ash is Purest White
Climax

Notable Omissions: Pain and Glory, Atlantics, The Chambermaid, Transit, Asako I & II, Birds of Passage, Aniara, Sunset

Best Director: 
Celine Sciamma - Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
Lulu Wang - The Farewell
Joanna Hogg - The Souvenir
James Mangold - Ford v Ferrari
Terrence Malick - A Hidden Life
Claire Denis - High Life
Lorene Scafaria - Hustlers
Sam Mendes - 1917

Notable Omissions: Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre - The Mustang, Pedro Almodovar - Pain & Glory, Christian Petzold - Transit, Jordan Peele - Us, Mati Diop - Atlantics, Melina Matsoukas - Queen & Slim, Marielle Hellwe - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Fernando Meirelles - Two Popes

Best Screenplay (I think I literally liked one adapted, so I'm combining this year):
1917
Knives Out
Parasite
Ford v Ferrari
Booksmart
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
The Irishman
The Souvenir
Les Miserables
Last Black Man in San Francisco

Notable Omissions: Pain & Glory, Transit, Us, Transit, High Flying Bird, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Atlantics, Diane, Aniara, 

Best Editing:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Parasite
A Hidden Life
The Souvenir
Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Notable Omissions: Rocketman, Sword of Truth, Dolemite, For Sama, 

Best Cinematography:
Last Black Man in San Francisco
The Lighthouse
1917
A Hidden Life
Monos
High Life
The Souvenir
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Ash is Purest White
Peterloo
Lapu

Notable Omissions: In Fabric, Atlantics

Best Costumes:
The Man Who Killed Don Quixote 


Notable Omissions: Rocketman, In Fabric, Dolemite, Queen & Slim, Sunset, 

Best Makeup:
Hustlers
Peterloo
Once Upon a Time
Parasite
Ash is Purest White

Notable Omissions: Bombshell, Maleficent, Judy, Rocketman, Downton Abbey, Dolemite, Us, In Fabric, It

Best Production Design:
Knives Out
Parasite
1917
Jojo Rabbit
The Man who Killed Don Quixote
The Souvenir
White Crow
Ford v Ferrari
Peterloo
Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Notable Omissions: Ad Astra, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, John Wick, Aladdin

Best Visual Effects:
The Irishman
1917
Captain Marvel
Ford v Ferrari

Notable Omissions: Ad Astra, Gemini Man, Terminator, Star Wars, Lion King, Aeronauts, Spiderman, Alita

Best Score:

Notable Omissions: Joker, I Lost My Body, Us, In Fabric, The King, Transit, mid90s, Ad Astra, Pain & Glory, Us, Arctic, Under the Silver Lake, Atlantics, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Best Song/Musical Moment:
Wild Rose - Glasgow
Wild Rose - Peace in this House
Portrait of a Lady on Fire - Bonfire scene
Spoiler: Portrait of a Lady on Fire - Summer (Presto). I almost linked to this on youtube, but just 5 seconds of watching and I was bawling again. So. 
Booksmart - You Oughta Know
Captain Marvel - Only Happy When it Rains (obviously.)
Ready or Not - Hide and Seek
Ash is Purest White - YMCA
Hustlers - Criminal
Little Women - the Piano
The Nightingale - each of Clare's songs (not online)
1917 - Wayfaring Stranger (Here. Have my favorite version again)
There were definitely some amazing dances in White Crow, but I don't see any online (there's one where he leaps and spins a ton that stands out in my mind - but I don't recall what it was to)
Last Black Man in San Francisco - San Francisco (Be Sure to Wear)
Climax - the first dance

Notable Omissions: Rocketman, Frozen II, Her Smell

Best Sound - both Editing & Mixing
Ford v Ferrari
1917
Parasite
Wild Rose
The Lighthouse
Monos

Best Short - Live Action/Doc:
Ad Astra (a different one)

(Hon mention: This was an older film shown at the fest, but I LOVE Black Mary.)

Best Short - Animated:

Best poster:

(Hon mention for 2020: WW 1984)

Best Trailer:

Best Quote:
"You know what kind of plan never fails? No plan at all. No plan. You know why? If you make a plan, life never works out that way." - Parasite
"Fucking Rich People" - Ready or Not
"I'll just chew on these grapes" - Jojo Rabbit
"This is so metaphorical" - Parasite
"And cut right there" - The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
"I lost my virginity in what I thought was a park but it turned out to be a graveyard and now the ghost spirits live inside my eggs waiting to be reborn" - Booksmart
"You don't get to hate it unless you love it" - Last Black Man in San Francisco
"In-laws" - Ready or Not

Unforgettable Moment (Non-musical or otherwise superlative) (Arr. There be spoilers here:)
The massacre - Peterloo
The couple reunited - Ash is Purest White
Goose & the Tesseract - Captain Marvel
The black hole - High Life
The soccer match - Diamantino
The rape - The Nightingale
The dinner party - The Souvenir
The basement - Parasite
The nice death - The Irishman
The injection - Knives Out
The run through the bombed out night city - 1917
The perfect lap - Ford v Ferrari (Or Ford Jr.'s test drive, or the fist fight, or the wrench...)
The shoes - JoJo Rabbit
The decision - A Hidden Life
The book - Little Women
The final bet - Uncut Gems
The Stairway - Les Miserables

Other superlatives:
Best trailer for a 2020 film: Emma. I seriously cannot wait. (hello second Vivaldi Presto mention.)) (In the Heights, Promising Young Woman, and WW 1984 are close runner ups)
2020 Film I'm Most Looking Forward to: Ooh - tough. 2020 looks exciting! I'm currently counting down the minutes to Emma., Babyteeth [Ed: Seen now! It was brilliant], and Miss Fisher and the Crypt of Tears, and I'm very excited for Proxima, Minari, Nomadland, Ammonite, David Copperfield, The Souvenir part 2, the new PTA, Passing, Bergman Island, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, and In the Heights, but it has to be First Cow. FIRST COW!!!

FIRST COW!

Movie You Wanted to Love but Just Couldn't: Wild Rose
Most Wasted Potential of an Idea: Either the Death of Dick Long for being so bonkers and just not quite pulling it off, or Once Upon a Time, which is a really intriguing concept, but - and I don't think I've ever said this before - needed some studio notes on the script
Best Villain: the German machines in Anthropocene
Best Female Action Star: Brie Larson - Captain Marvel
Biggest Waste of a Cast: Midsommar
Best Action Scene:  You know? None of the Marvel scenes this year stand out to me. And this movie was TERRIBLE, but the naked shootout from Polar was certainly memorable. 
Best Music Cue: Captain Marvel - Just a Girl. Is it on the nose and did we know it was coming? Sure. Did I grin like an idiot at the drop? Absolutely
Most WTF: The Death of Dick Long (Runner Up: The Velocipastor)
Best scene in an otherwise okay film: Spahn Ranch - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. 
Actor Having the Most Fun While Earning a Paycheck: Ben Mendelsohn - Captain Marvel. He was delightful. 
Best Kiss: Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Cat: Goose - Captain Marvel
Worst Cat: Rebel Wilson
Best Dog: The pekingese - Diamantino
Best Seagull: No eyes - The Lighthouse
Best Tea: Ford v Ferrari
Best Beans: The Lighthouse
Best Peach: Parasite. Stealing the crown from CMBYN.
Best prop: I mean - the knives in Knives Out are pretty great. I also enjoyed the cross-bow in Ready or Not. Speaking of:
Best use of Face-Time: Ready or Not
Weirdest post-film realization: that it was Hugh Dancy and not Tom Everett Scott in Late Night. (Hannibal is LITERALLY my favorite show. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)
Best Hat: Rory Kinnear - Peterloo
Best Jacket: Richard Ayoade - The Souvenir
Best Ode to Civil Servants: Colewell
Best Cameo: Usher - Hustlers (Runner up: The Weeknd - Uncut Gems)
Best Breakthrough: Fat Thor
Best Ending (the McKayla Maroney award): Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best opening: Tie: Climax and Last Black Man in San Francisco
Best credits: Climax
Most overrated: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best TV Show: STILL HANNIBAL. BUT MAYBE TIED WITH FLEABAG NOW.

Friday, February 14, 2020

Best Films of 2019

Also late, because - Portrait.

Past Years: 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009

Pretty posters here


1. Portrait of a Lady on Fire

2. Parasite

3. A Hidden Life

4. The Souvenir

5. Peterloo

6. Aquarela

7. Anthropocene

8. The Farewell

9. Ford v. Ferrari

10. The Nightingale

11. The Irishman

12. 1917

13. High Life

14. Last Black Man in San Francisco

15. Climax

16. Colewell

17. Hail Satan?

18. Knives Out

19. Jojo Rabbit

20. Booksmart

21. The Lighthouse

22. The Seer and the Unseen

23. Hustlers

24. The Little Comrade

25. Monos

26. Ready or Not

27. Lapü

28. Tehran City of Love

29. The Hidden City

30. Captain Marvel

31. Late Night

Sunday, February 9, 2020

Oscars aftermath

19/24!!!! And so so happy!!! Called the spoilers on all the ones I didn't get. Too too thrilled Ford v. Ferrari got two awards, squealed when it won editing (although I would have been perfectly happy for Parasite to get it, COULD NOT BELIEVE Bong got director! (and was so generous in his speech) And the best picture won best picture! I LOVE IT WHEN THAT HAPPENS.

I find it hilarious that I got splitting the sound categories correct, but then it swapped. I really thought Ford would get mixing!


Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite - spoiler, should win, DID WIN!!!!!! YAAAAAAAAYYYYYY

I hope to GOD Joker only takes actor and score. Here's where I think it'll all shake out:

Ford v Ferrari - I'm thinking sound mixing, but I'm hoping for both sound and editing upsets [sound editing, editing] YAAAAS EDITING UPSET
The Irishman - shut out, unless it pulls an upset in vfx
Jojo Rabbit - adapted screenplay
Joker - actor, score
Little Women - costume, could pull an upset in adapted screenplay
Marriage Story - supporting actress
1917 - picture, cinematography, sound editing, director, vfx [sound mixing]
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - supporting actor, production design
Parasite - editing, foreign, original screenplay. Hoping for a picture upset. [Director, PICTURE]

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917 - will win
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite - spoiler, should win, did win!

Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker - will win, did win
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy - will win, did win

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story - will win, did win
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit - spoiler
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman - should win
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win, did win

Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - will win, did win
Joker
Little Women - spoiler
The Two Popes

Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - spoiler
Parasite - will win, should win, did win

Costume Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - spoiler, should win
Joker
Little Women - will win, did win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Documentary Feature
American Factory - will win, did win
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama - spoiler
Honeyland

International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea) - will win, should win, did win!

Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body - probably should win?
Klaus - spoiler
Missing Link
Toy Story 4 - will win, did win

Production Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win, did win
Parasite- spoiler, should win

Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win, DID WIN! YAAAYYY!!!!
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite - will win

Cinematography
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917 - will win, should win, did win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman - spoiler
The Lion King
1917 - will win, did win
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari - will win, should win
Joker
1917 - spoiler, did win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win, did win!
Joker
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Original Score
Joker - will win, did win
Little Women - spoiler, should win
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Original Song
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman - will win, did win
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen II - spoiler
“Stand Up,” Harriet

Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell - will win, did win
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917

Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence - spoiler
Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone if You’re a Girl - will win, did win
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk, Run, Cha cha

Animated Short
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love - will win, did win
Kitbull - should win
Memorable
Sister

Live Action Short
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window - will win, did win
Saria
A Sister - spoiler, should win

Saturday, February 8, 2020

2019 Oscar Predictions

A lot of these are close two horse races, which should make for an exciting broadcast. Of note; I always hope to do better than 22/24 for a personal best. Last year I got 20, so okay (and the best I've done since they've opened up the voting bloc, and these have become much more unpredictable). The year before I got 15, which was the worst I've done in ages and was so, SO happy about it (Moonlight). 2016: 17, 2015: 21,  2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20 (although I wrote 21 somewhere - I wonder if I swapped a category at the last minute...).

It's funny looking back at some older predictions, because in 2011, best director/picture had only differed 12 times since 1948, and since then it's differed 5 times.

(My other normal year-end posts are delayed, because I'm waiting to see Portrait of a Lady on Fire before picking my top films & other awards)


Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite - spoiler, should win

Snub: A Hidden Life, possibly Portrait of a Lady on Fire

I am desperately hoping Parasite could win. And winning the SAG ensemble is such a tempting bellwether! But I don't think it overlaps as often as the PGA (unlike the individual SAG wins). (Fun Oscar fact - a win would make 1917 the first ever best picture winner without an acting or editing nod!) But as 1917 took the GG-Drama and PGA, it will likely win. The last time a winner of those didn't was Brokeback Mountain. And while I'm willing to believe Joker=Crash, Parasite is the potential upset here, and folks may still think editing and foreign are enough. Then again, with the diversity push, 20% of the Academy is now foreign.... maybe? Please?

All that said, I won't be mad if and when 1917 wins. It left me a little cold, but my friend Alex has a great piece on why she loves it. I will say that I love its use of Wayfaring Stranger, which is a song I love a lot. Here's my favorite version.

I hope to GOD Joker only takes actor and score. Here's where I think it'll all shake out:

Ford v Ferrari - I'm thinking sound mixing, but I'm hoping for both sound and editing upsets
The Irishman - shut out, unless it pulls an upset in vfx
Jojo Rabbit - adapted screenplay
Joker - actor, score
Little Women - costume, could pull an upset in adapted screenplay
Marriage Story - supporting actress
1917 - picture, cinematography, sound editing, director, vfx
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - supporting actor, production design
Parasite - editing, foreign, original screenplay. Hoping for a picture upset


Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917 - will win
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite - spoiler, should win

Snub: Joanna Hogg - The Souvenir

Sam Mendes won the DGA, GG, and BAFTA.


Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker - will win
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Snub: Tom Burke - The Souvenir

I.. have only seen Once, and I thought Leo did a terrific job (and was largely my favorite part in a movie I didn't think worked.) But the acting nods are pretty close to wrapped up. I'm just going to pretend Joaquin is winning this for You Were Never Really Here. He's won the SAG, BAFTA, CCA, and GG.

Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy - will win

Snub: Honor Swinton Byrne - The Souvenir, Aisling Franciosi - The Nightingale, Karen Allen - Colewell (up for an indie!)

Boy - just no opinions on the nominees this year! Saoirse was okay, but Little Women didn't work for me. No one in hollywood is going to vote for Megyn Kelly. I'm thrilled Cynthia Erivo got a nod - I love her a lot. Renee has won the SAG, GG, BAFTA, NBR, CCA, BritIndie, and is up for an indie.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story - will win
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit - spoiler
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Snub: Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell, Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers, Julianne Nicholson - Monos

If there's going to be an upset, folks think it'll happen here. But Laura has won the SAG, BAFTA, NSFC, GG, NYFC, and CCA. ScarJo hasn't won anything in this category, but I guess some people think Marriage Story isn't popular enough, and ScarJo being a double nominee might pull it out here. I will say this might be the first time I've found her tolerable in a film.


Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman - should win
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win

Snub: Jonathan Majors - Last Black Man in San Francisco, Andrew Scott - 1917 (I know it's like 2 seconds - but he does SO MUCH in that time!)

Definitely Brad Pitt. Which, I'd be okay with a lifetime achievement, but it puts a really bad taste in my mouth that he's winning for playing a wife-killer that's played for jokes, and his speeches have been... distasteful in parts. *sigh* And Joe Pesci came out of retirement for that lovely, restrained turn. But Brad's won the SAG, BAFTA, NSFC, GG, NBR and CCA.


Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - will win
Joker
Little Women - spoiler
The Two Popes

Snub: ?? Hustlers? I can barely think of any other adapted screenplays.

JoJo is the safe bet here, but I wonder if enough folks are upset about Greta's director 'snub' for sympathy votes to carry the day here. And she won the USC Scripter, which was the PERFECT predictor until last year, with LEAVE NO TRACE (YES I'M STILL ANGRY) and given that that was also a woman... JoJo has momentum with the WGA and BAFTA.

Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - spoiler
Parasite - will win, should win

Snub: The Farewell, Booksmart

Parasite has also won the WGA and BAFTA, as well as the NSFC. Once won the CCA and GG, and Quentin is very associated with this prize...


Costume Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - spoiler, should win
Joker
Little Women - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Snub: Knives Out. Contemporary guild winner. Sweater.

This one is a little tricky! Jojo won the guild award for period costume, Little Women won the BAFTA. I feel like people see period dresses and vote for that. But JoJo's costumes really stuck out, and I am but a simple person and really loved Sam Rockwell's cape...

Documentary Feature
American Factory - will win
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama - spoiler
Honeyland

Snub: Aquarela. My fave, made the shortlist. C'est la vie.

Tricky again! Because the PGA went to Apollo 11. I think American Factory, because: topical, Obama support, won the DGA, Gotha, LAFC, and Cinemaeye. For Sama got the BAFTA and BritIndie. For Sama won best pic at the IDA while American Factory took best director. But I think the Brits have paid more attention to Syria than Americans (although! the White Helmets won short a couple of years ago. Last Men in Aleppo did not win 2 years ago...)


International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea) - will win, should win

Snub: Probably Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Ash is Purest White

I'M OKAY WITH IT WINNING BOTH.

Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body - probably should win?
Klaus - spoiler
Missing Link
Toy Story 4 - will win

I think Toy Story 4 gets it (it got the PGA, CCA, MPSE and ACE Eddie), but it's still weird Frozen 2 isn't in here. Klaus (?) won the BAFTA and the Annie, as well as all 7 Annie categories it was nominated in. Missing Link won the GG and VES.


Production Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win
Parasite- spoiler, should win

Snub: The Souvenir, Knives Out

This is a close one. Parasite won the guild for contemporary, while Once won the guild for Period. Period usually predicts, plus Once won the CCA and LAFC. 1917 won the BAFTA (and while I thought it was quite impressive, I also didn't realize how many battlefield elements were VFX. But watching them go into the German trench - I just thought: this is going to be up for production design.) I'd love to see folks go contemporary for how wonderful the Parasite sets were.


Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite - will win

Parasite won the ACE Eddie, and it's beautifully constructed and paced - and really, it totally deserves to win. I am glad Ford v Ferrari won the BAFTA, because I think it's really well done, and I'm sad it could well be shut out. JoJo won the ACE for comedy.


Cinematography
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917 - will win, should win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Snub: A Hidden Life, Monos

ILU Roger Deakins. (I am THRILLED the Lighthouse is in here. It's GORGEOUS. Here's a great interview with the cinematographer about how they achieved that.)

Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman - spoiler
The Lion King
1917 - will win
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Snub: Cats. Obviously.

God I hope it's not Lion King. It won the VES for photoreal, and indiewire thinks it's going to win. The Irishman won the VES for supporting. 1917 won the BAFTA and the NYT thinks it will win. They're all quite different, and while I think Star Wars will be counted out for more of the same, I don't know if the machine learning they used for digital characters on Endgame was totally new to that film? Or if most folks will think - more marvel explosions? I suppose this category may depend a bit on whether 1917 picked up enough momentum to start pulling in other categories. (As I mentioned above in production design, 1917 might triumph here for how much of the background details were digitally added, presuming folks are well-aware of that fact.) Or will actors be super excited by the possibilities The Irishman gives them?

(I liked what one anonymous director had to say about Lion King; "Lion King is the best-looking, yet most depressing movie I’ve ever seen. It’s amazingly made but entirely 100% creatively bankrupt.")


Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari - will win, should win
Joker
1917 - spoiler
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win
Joker
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

I know the sound categories usually go together, but I'm splitting the difference. Thus ruining my hopes at a perfect 24, but letting me put Ford in for something (and with good reason, too). 1917 won the BAFTA for both and NYT thinks it'll win. indiewire thinks Ford will win for both. Ford won the guild for mixing, and the guild for editing for foley. 1917 won the guild for editing for dialogue. War films are popular picks for oscar voters in sound categories, but... I'm biased. I love Ford. Listen to this.

Original Score
Joker - will win
Little Women - spoiler, should win
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Snub: Monos

Joker has won the BAFTA, CCA, and GG.

Original Song
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman - will win
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen II - spoiler
“Stand Up,” Harriet

Snub: Glasgow - Wild Rose

Rocketman won the GG and CCA. Folks like Elton, and the movie was well liked.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell - will win
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917

Snub: ?? Rocketman? Us?

Unless folks COMPLETELY won't vote for anything Fox news. I mean - those prosthetics are crazy. Bombshell won the guild for contemporary, fx, and hair, CCA, and the BAFTA. Joker won the guild for period, because - clown? (fun fact: it was up for contemporary hair styling, so....)

Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence - spoiler
Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone if You’re a Girl - will win
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk, Run, Cha cha

Snub: Ghosts of Sugarland, on the shortlist, nominated for a cinemaeye, and on the DocNYC shortlist

Learning won the IDA and BAFTA, so I think it will take it, but In the Absence is well regarded and the only one of the nominees up for a CCA.


Animated Short
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love - will win
Kitbull - should win
Memorable
Sister

So many beautifully crafted, sad films. I think people will go for something more heartwarming (as did I).
Snub: well - my favorite was a bizarre avant garde polish film called Cold Pudding Settles Love (trailer only), so....
Maestro, by the team that did the fantastic Garden Party, is also a real winner:




Live Action Short
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window - will win
Saria
A Sister - spoiler, should win

I really loved both The Neighbors' Window and A Sister. Brotherhood was well done, as well. I think both Window and Brotherhood have a shot (Brotherhood is very much in the Oscars' wheelhouse, while tony nominee Maria Dizzia is beloved). That said, I'm hoping A Sister resonates for its subject matter. Plus how well done it is.