And the real deal, ladies and gentlemen. With kibbutzing.
Bolded are the real nominees. Strikethroughs I got wrong.
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Hugo
Moneyball
"I'm positive on those six. I thinkGirl with the Dragon and Tree of Life will take the next two and it will be 8 nominees.
If it is 10 nominees, I'll add War Horse and (sigh)Bridesmaids. Hoping for a Drive or Ides of March spoiler."
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. You have got to be fucking kidding me. Only you, Academy. Only you.
Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
David Fincher, Dragon Tattoo
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
"Terrence Malick, Tree of Life, and Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive, as spoilers. I think Steven Spielberg is out. Then again, were ballots due before the PGA honors?"
*sniff* ILU David Fincher!
Best Actress
Rooney Mara
Viola Davis
Meryl Streep
Michelle Williams
Tilda Swinton
"Glenn Close as spoiler. *sigh* I'd like to put SWINTON as spoiler, since she has an oscar already, but I'm just not sure Glenn Close is ever going to get it. Dragon Tattoo has surged, and both Albert Nobbs and Iron Lady are not good films around a central performance. I don't see Glenn getting in. Probably. She and Rooney Mara are close."
Hey! I should have gone with my gut.
Best Actor
George Clooney
Brad Pitt
Jean Dujardin
Michael Fassbender
Gary Oldman
"Yup. I think the recent nods for Gary Oldman and the fact that J. Edgar has completely faded means Leo is out. Still, Leo for a spoiler, and Michael Shannon. (I just don't see Ryan Gosling or Demian Bichir.)"
Wow - the SAG nom has it! Yay for not all being white. Boo for the lack of the Fassbender!
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer
Melissa McCarthy
Berenice Bejo
Jessica Chastain
Shailene Woodley
"Janet McTeer and Vanessa Redgrave as spoilers. Janet McTeer and Shailene Woodley are awfully neck in neck. Hmmm..."
Woo Janet McTeer! I like her.
Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer
Albert Brooks
Keneth Branagh
Jonah Hill
Nick Nolte
"Max Von Sydow as spoiler, although the vitriol directed at Extremely/Incredibly Close/Loud (or whatever) is so intense that I think it puts him out. Ben Kingsley as a more likely spoiler. I don't see Andy Serkis getting it, but wouldn't that be lovely?"
I... what the fuck?!? ALBERT BROOKS!
The other categories after the jump:
Best Original Screenplay
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
"Win Win and Young Adult as spoilers."
Margin Call! Didn't see that one coming!
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
"Tinker Tailor as spoiler."
The Ides of March! Whoa - singular inclusion for that film. Glad it got a little love.
Animated
Rango
Puss in Boots
Tintin
Kung Fu Panda 2
Arthur Christmas
"Rio and Chico & Rita as spoilers."
Add in A Cat in Paris. I am pleasantly surprised by this! The academy is nominating interesting little seen annies rather than blindly going after whatever dreamworks put out. Way to go, Academy.
Foreign
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
Pina
A Separation
Bullhead as spoiler.
Documentary
If a Tree Falls
Buck
Pina
Project Nim
We Were Here
"Bill Cunningham as spoiler."
Whoa. Add in Hell and Back Again, Paradise Lost 3, and Undefeated. I thought Peter Jackson's West Memphis film at sundance would pull focus from PL3 (although it is exactly the kind of thing the Academy would vote for). And Buck and Project Nim have won so many precursors. I'm shocked.
Cinematography
Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor
Tree of Life
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse as spoiler.
Editing
Artist
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor
War Horse and The Descendants as spoilers.
Art Direction
Artist
Harry Potter
Hugo
Tinker Tailor
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
"The Help and Pirates as spoilers. (Drive? Drive?) (I would say War Horse, but it didn't get a guild nom...)"
And Midnight in Paris. Silly me for not putting down War Horse. It's an epic epic of epicness. Of COURSE the academy will nominate it in every technical category.
Costume
Artist
Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
"Harry Potter and Tinker Tailor as spoilers. (Girl with the Dragon Tattoo? Melancholia? Drive?)"
I don't know why I bother to hope that the Academy might one day nominate something contemporary. Throw Anonymous into that pile.
Score
Tinker Tailor
Artist
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse
"Jane Eyre and Tintin as spoilers. (War Horse seems like a shoe-in, but I've noticed several criticisms leveled directly at the score.) God I wish Hanna and Drive were in here."
God, if it's John Williams....
Song
Lay Your Head Down - Albert Nobbs
The Living Proof - The Help
Life's a Happy Song - The Muppets
Man or Muppet - The Muppets
Hello Hello - Gnomeo and Juliet
"Coeur Volant - Hugo as spoiler. Although I'd personally prefer Star Spangled Man from Captain America. Captain-ettes!"
Add in Real in Rio - Rio. Guys? I think you're missing some. Guys?
[For realsies though, did everyone just put down Man or Muppet and leave the other slots blank?]
Sound Mixing
Hugo
Super 8
Transformers
Moneyball
Pirates
"Hanna, Planet of the Apes and Mission Impossible as spoilers. Maybe War Horse. I can never tell if the Oscars will follow the actual sound guilds. I think it may just go to the noisiest films (Transformers, MI4, Apes, Super 8, Pirates)."
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Huh. Well, I'm all for more nominations on that one. Surprised, though.
Sound Editing
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Transformers
War Horse
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
"Drive and Hugo as spoilers. Maybe Harry Potter."
Hey! Drive isn't COMPLETELY shut out! (Also - shocked that Super 8 isn't in)
Visual Effects
Harry Potter
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers
Tree of Life
"Captain America as spoiler."
Real Steel! Whoda thunk it?
Makeup
The Iron Lady
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter
Hugo and the Artist as spoilers.
Short Animated
I Tawt I Taw A Puddy Tat
La Luna
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Wild Life
Magic Piano
"Luminaris and Paths of Hate as spoilers."
A Morning Stroll and Dimanche/Sunday.
Short Live
Time Freak
Love at First Sight
Pentecost
Raju
The Roar of the Sea
"The Road Home and Sailcloth as spoilers."
Tuba Atlantic.
Short Documentary
In Tahrir Square
Pipe Dreams
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Saving Face
Witness
"Incident in Baghdad and The Barber of Birmingham as spoilers."
Add in God is the Bigger Elvis. Ah well. Can't easily guess on those I've never heard of...
A few more thoughts in a minute. Overall? I got 4/5 right in 12 categories, which I'm pleased with. Overall, without spoilers, I got 84 nominees out of 119. With spoilers, 98/119. In the top 6 categories, I'm 28/34, or 32/34 with spoilers. The only two real shocks in the top categories being Demian and Extremely Stupid. The only category I got perfect was makeup. Le sigh.
Bolded are the real nominees. Strikethroughs I got wrong.
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Hugo
Moneyball
"I'm positive on those six. I think
If it is 10 nominees, I'll add War Horse and (sigh)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. You have got to be fucking kidding me. Only you, Academy. Only you.
Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
"Terrence Malick, Tree of Life, and Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive, as spoilers. I think Steven Spielberg is out. Then again, were ballots due before the PGA honors?"
*sniff* ILU David Fincher!
Best Actress
Rooney Mara
Viola Davis
Meryl Streep
Michelle Williams
"Glenn Close as spoiler. *sigh* I'd like to put SWINTON as spoiler, since she has an oscar already, but I'm just not sure Glenn Close is ever going to get it. Dragon Tattoo has surged, and both Albert Nobbs and Iron Lady are not good films around a central performance. I don't see Glenn getting in. Probably. She and Rooney Mara are close."
Hey! I should have gone with my gut.
Best Actor
George Clooney
Brad Pitt
Jean Dujardin
Gary Oldman
"Yup. I think the recent nods for Gary Oldman and the fact that J. Edgar has completely faded means Leo is out. Still, Leo for a spoiler, and Michael Shannon. (I just don't see Ryan Gosling or Demian Bichir.)"
Wow - the SAG nom has it! Yay for not all being white. Boo for the lack of the Fassbender!
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer
Melissa McCarthy
Berenice Bejo
Jessica Chastain
"Janet McTeer and Vanessa Redgrave as spoilers. Janet McTeer and Shailene Woodley are awfully neck in neck. Hmmm..."
Woo Janet McTeer! I like her.
Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer
Keneth Branagh
Jonah Hill
Nick Nolte
"Max Von Sydow as spoiler, although the vitriol directed at Extremely/Incredibly Close/Loud (or whatever) is so intense that I think it puts him out. Ben Kingsley as a more likely spoiler. I don't see Andy Serkis getting it, but wouldn't that be lovely?"
I... what the fuck?!? ALBERT BROOKS!
The other categories after the jump:
Best Original Screenplay
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
"Win Win and Young Adult as spoilers."
Margin Call! Didn't see that one coming!
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Hugo
Moneyball
"Tinker Tailor as spoiler."
The Ides of March! Whoa - singular inclusion for that film. Glad it got a little love.
Animated
Rango
Puss in Boots
Kung Fu Panda 2
"Rio and Chico & Rita as spoilers."
Add in A Cat in Paris. I am pleasantly surprised by this! The academy is nominating interesting little seen annies rather than blindly going after whatever dreamworks put out. Way to go, Academy.
Foreign
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation
Bullhead as spoiler.
Documentary
If a Tree Falls
Pina
"Bill Cunningham as spoiler."
Whoa. Add in Hell and Back Again, Paradise Lost 3, and Undefeated. I thought Peter Jackson's West Memphis film at sundance would pull focus from PL3 (although it is exactly the kind of thing the Academy would vote for). And Buck and Project Nim have won so many precursors. I'm shocked.
Cinematography
Artist
Hugo
Tree of Life
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse as spoiler.
Editing
Artist
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse and The Descendants as spoilers.
Art Direction
Artist
Harry Potter
Hugo
"The Help and Pirates as spoilers. (Drive? Drive?) (I would say War Horse, but it didn't get a guild nom...)"
And Midnight in Paris. Silly me for not putting down War Horse. It's an epic epic of epicness. Of COURSE the academy will nominate it in every technical category.
Costume
Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
"Harry Potter and Tinker Tailor as spoilers. (Girl with the Dragon Tattoo? Melancholia? Drive?)"
I don't know why I bother to hope that the Academy might one day nominate something contemporary. Throw Anonymous into that pile.
Score
Tinker Tailor
Artist
Hugo
War Horse
"Jane Eyre and Tintin as spoilers. (War Horse seems like a shoe-in, but I've noticed several criticisms leveled directly at the score.) God I wish Hanna and Drive were in here."
God, if it's John Williams....
Song
Man or Muppet - The Muppets
"Coeur Volant - Hugo as spoiler. Although I'd personally prefer Star Spangled Man from Captain America. Captain-ettes!"
Add in Real in Rio - Rio. Guys? I think you're missing some. Guys?
[For realsies though, did everyone just put down Man or Muppet and leave the other slots blank?]
Sound Mixing
Hugo
Transformers
Moneyball
"Hanna, Planet of the Apes and Mission Impossible as spoilers. Maybe War Horse. I can never tell if the Oscars will follow the actual sound guilds. I think it may just go to the noisiest films (Transformers, MI4, Apes, Super 8, Pirates)."
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Huh. Well, I'm all for more nominations on that one. Surprised, though.
Sound Editing
Transformers
War Horse
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
"Drive and Hugo as spoilers. Maybe Harry Potter."
Hey! Drive isn't COMPLETELY shut out! (Also - shocked that Super 8 isn't in)
Visual Effects
Harry Potter
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers
"Captain America as spoiler."
Real Steel! Whoda thunk it?
Makeup
The Iron Lady
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter
Hugo and the Artist as spoilers.
Short Animated
La Luna
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Wild Life
"Luminaris and Paths of Hate as spoilers."
A Morning Stroll and Dimanche/Sunday.
Short Live
Time Freak
Pentecost
Raju
"The Road Home and Sailcloth as spoilers."
Tuba Atlantic.
Short Documentary
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Saving Face
"Incident in Baghdad and The Barber of Birmingham as spoilers."
Add in God is the Bigger Elvis. Ah well. Can't easily guess on those I've never heard of...
A few more thoughts in a minute. Overall? I got 4/5 right in 12 categories, which I'm pleased with. Overall, without spoilers, I got 84 nominees out of 119. With spoilers, 98/119. In the top 6 categories, I'm 28/34, or 32/34 with spoilers. The only two real shocks in the top categories being Demian and Extremely Stupid. The only category I got perfect was makeup. Le sigh.
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