Sunday, February 26, 2017

Oscars Follow up

THAT WAS THE MOST AMAZING THING THAT HAS EVER HAPPENED.

Yes, it SUCKS that the Moonlight producers didn't have their names called and that they didn't get their proper moment in the spotlight (pun only slightly intended). But GODDAMN if that wasn't the most dramatic way for Moonlight to upset La La Land. I'm so happy it won. That movie is a revelation.

Best picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land - Will Win
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight - Should win, DID WIN

OH MY GODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

Lead actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea - Did Win
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land,
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences - Will Win

What I said then: I'm giving this to Denzel by a hair, because actors make up the biggest bloc of oscar voters. But Casey Affleck has won more primary awards. I'm not sure who should win out of this group - they largely wouldn't be my picks - Denzel was good, but not great; Casey was brilliant, but a horrible human being, so I find myself going for Andrew (I see this almost as a co-nomination for Silence. Cough: https://letterboxd.com/harryrossi/list/2016-films-with-andrew-garfield-as-an-explicitly/)

Now: Poor Brie Larson. I maintain that Casey should have won for the Assassination of Jesse James, back before I'm Not There. This is still a shockingly weak category, especially given that the actress category had to cut Annette Benning and Amy Adams.

Lead actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle - Should Win
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land - Will Win, Did Win
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

What I said then: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Now: At least she looked nice. Isabelle was still better.

Supporting actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!!!!!!
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Supporting actress
Viola Davis, Fences - Will Win, Did Win
Naomie Harris, Moonlight - Should Win
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Best director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land - Will Win, Did Win
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight - Should Win
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

I stand by this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

THIS, however, is hilarious to me:

(I mean, props to the producers who handled that awful situation with grace, but Barry Jenkins should've won director full stop.)

Animated feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia - Will Win, Did Win

What I said then: Haven't seen My Life as a Zucchini or the Red Turtle, so hard to say what should win. I personally prefer Moana to Zootopia, but I can see why Zootopia will win.

Now: I still really want to see the Red Turtle

Animated short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper - Will win, should win, Did Win

Adapted screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight - Will win, should win, Did Win

Original screenplay
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster - Should win
Manchester by the Sea - Will win, Did Win

I stand by this: The Lobster and 20th Century Women should be up for best picture.

Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion - Will win, Did Win
Moonlight - Should win
Silence

What I said then: I'm going with the guild on this one. The popular opinion is that La La Land will take it, but I JUST CAN'T. I HATE La La Land's cinematography. And the experts thought Roger Deakins would win a few years back and then he didn't. Moonlight won a number of precursors, so there's some hope there. If La La Land wins this one, I will fucking break things. Should win is tricky. I'm giving it to Moonlight by a hair. I do really like Silence's too. (I'm a sucker for foggy landscapes). Lion's was interesting, but I'm mostly hoping it'll beat LA. (Beat LA!)

Now: I'm still fucking angry about this one. The lighting, particularly in that opening, was godawful.

Best documentary feature
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America - Will win, Did Win

Best documentary short subject
4.1 Miles
Extremist
Joe’s Violin - Will win
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets, Did Win

What I said then: Extremis is more nominated, but apparently Joe's Violin more crowd-pleasing/oscar baity. That said, an anti-Trump vote for White Helmets could carry the day. But that may be confined to the foreign category below.

Now: I'm good with the anti-trump message. (Also - every time anyone in the LALALA crew says it was hard to make LLL, they should be forced to spend a day filming in Syria.)

Best live-action short film
Ennemis Interieurs - Will win
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing Did Win
Timecode

What I said then: Timecode as spoiler for winning a palme.

Now: Did.... anyone see this coming?

Best foreign language film
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
Tanna
The Salesman - Will Win, Did Win
Toni Erdmann

What I said then: ELLE SHOULD WIN. Harumph. (Not to mention Korea not even SUBMITTING The Handmaiden.) The Salesman has built a second phase anti-trump narrative, so I think it has edged Toni Erdmann, which had been in the lead. I still really want to see Tanna. I keep missing it.

Now: I stand by the above. But Anousheh Ansari reading Asghar Farhadi's statement was beautiful.

Film editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge Did Win
Hell or High Water
La La Land - Will win
Moonlight - Should Win (although Arrival's editing is great, and Hacksaw Ridge's battle scenes are, too)

This was SOOOO unexpected! (And my first serious glimmer of hope that LLL might not take the cake). The editing on those battle scenes was tremendous. Still think Moonlight was better, (and that having the first black female win for editor would've been wonderful), but I'm okay with this one.

Sound editing
Arrival - Did Win
Deep Water Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge - Will Win, Should Win
La La Land
Sully

SOOO surprised! Thrilled Arrival got something. And I had mixed up the category Kevin O'Connell was nominated for, or I would have put Hacksaw as should win below. But I stand by thinking Hacksaw would win editing, since it took the guild prize

Sound mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge Did Win
La La Land - Will Win
Rogue One - Should Win
13 Hours

I SCREAMED SO LOUDLY AT THIS YOU HAVE NO IDEA. The Academy recognized that La La Land's sound was terrible! Kevin O'Connell - who is a legend - finally won and had the sweetest speech. Good things happen!!

Production design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail Caesar! - Should Win (although I haven't seen fantastic beasts/passengers and passengers won for fantasy at the ADGs)
La La Land - Will win, Did Win
Passengers

I stand by this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. The fact that the Handmaiden is not nominated here invalidates this category. Also! Normally this category is heavily dominated by the period nominees from the ADG but none (!) were nominated this go round (Jackie (so great), Cafe Society, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, and Hidden Figures - the winner in that group.)

Original score
Jackie
La La Land - Will win, Did Win
Lion
Moonlight - Should win
Passengers

And this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I HATE the La La Land score. (Jackie's is also amazing, and Lion's is really good.) Here. Go listen to this and this as a palate cleanser.

Original song
Audition, La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling!, Trolls
City of Stars, La La Land - Will win Did Win
The Empty Chair, Jim: The James Foley Story
How Far I’ll Go, Moana - Should win

And this: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Come on. Give it to Lin. Let the man EGOT.

Makeup and hair
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond - Will win, should win
Suicide Squad Did Win

What I said then: Star Trek won the guild for effects (suicide squad won character), but the Man Called Ove team won a couple of years back for the Man that Climbed Out the Window and Wandered Away, or whatever that movie was. But the Jaylah/Sofia Boutella alien was great.

Now: Everything is terrible forever. WHO DOES THIS TO COMMON:
Costume design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Did Win
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie - Should win
La La Land - Will Win

What I said then: UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH At least Coleen Atwood won't get it again? The other winners in the guild awards (Hidden Figures and Doctor Strange) weren't even nominated. My favorite - Love & Friendship - was only up for a Critics Choice. I call bullshit. Gold Derby actually has Jackie winning this. Pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease.

Now: I was mistaken in how many oscars Coleen has actually won! It's now only 4. I'm okay with this! I do actually like her work, the costumes from Fantastic Bests looked interesting, Harry Potter now has an oscar, and LLL didn't win.
Visual effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Jungle Book - Will win (probably should - haven't seen it) Did Win
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

15/24. That's the worst I've done in a long time and I am so, so happy about it!

Saturday, February 25, 2017

2016 JWD Awards & Superlatives

Don't mind me. I'm just going to live in my own little world where the Handmaiden and the Love Witch are up for Production Design, Annette Benning is up for Best Actress, Lily Gladstone is up for Best Supporting, and Love & Friendship gets a whole lot more love.

Wow - I never got around to finishing my 2015 superlative post. Le sigh. That's what happens when you're shorthanded at year-end. I'm going to go put that up, so that it can be added to the list:
201020112012201320142015.

*sigh.*

Onwards and upwards! 2016!

Best Film
Moonlight
The Handmaiden
Jackie
Elle
The Lobster
20th Century Women
A Bigger Splash
Louder than Bombs
Certain Women
Indignation
Best Popcorn Flick
Hunt for the Wilderpeople
Everybody Wants Some!!
10 Cloverfield Lane
Swiss Army Man
Arrival
Hail, Caesar
Assassination Classroom
Moana
Deadpool
Hacksaw Ridge

Notable Omissions here.
Best Actress
Annette Benning - 20th Century Women
Sandra Huller - Toni Erdmann
Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Amy Adams - Arrival
Ruth Negga - Loving
Natalie Portman - Jackie
Kim Min-hee - The Handmaiden
Rachel Weiss - The Lobster
Kate Beckinsale - Love & Friendship
Viola Davis - Fences
Samantha Robinson - The Love Witch

(Notable Omissions: Agyness Deyn - Sunset Song, Sasha Lane - American Honey, Mackenzie Davis - Always Shine, Caitlin Fitzgerald - Always Shine, Sarah Paulson - Blue Jay, Isabelle Huppert - Things to Come, Rebecca Hall - Christine, Jessica Chastain - Miss Sloane, Sonia Braga - Aquarius)
Best Actor
Joel Edgerton - Loving
Logan Lerman - Indignation
Colin Farrell - The Lobster
Trevante Rhodes - Moonlight
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Jake Gyllenhaal - Nocturnal Animals
Paul Dano - Swiss Army Man
Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge

(Notable Omissions: Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic, Adam Driver - Paterson, Michael Keaton - the Founder, Dave John - I Daniel Blake)

Best Supporting Actress
Naomie Harris - Moonlight
Lily Gladstone - Certain Women
Greta Gerwig - 20th Century Women
Tae-ri Kim - The Handmaiden
Tilda Swinton - A Bigger Splash
Margaret Bowman - Hell or High Water (although honestly, the other waitress, Katy Mixon, was just as good)
Olivia Colman - The Lobster
Dakota Johnson - A Bigger Splash
Kate MacKinnon - Ghostbusters

(Notable Omissions: Riley Keogh - American Honey, Molly Shannon - Other People, Hayley Squires - I Daniel Blake)
Best Supporting Actor 
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Tracy Letts - Indignation
Ralph Fiennes - A Bigger Splash
Matthias Schoenaerts - A Bigger Splash
Glen Powell - Everybody Wants Some!!
Tom Bennett - Love & Friendship
Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
Sam Neill - Hunt for the Wilderpeople
Alden Ehrenreich - Hail Caesar
John Goodman - 10 Cloverfield Lane
Alex Hibbert - Moonlight
Andre Holland - Moonlight
Daniel Radcliffe - Swiss Army Man

(Notable Omissions: Ethan Hawke - Maggie's Plan, Shia LaBeouf - American Honey, Christopher Lloyd - I am not a Serial Killer, Hugh Grant - Florence Foster)
Best Ensemble
Moonlight
20th Century Women
Nocturnal Animals
Everybody Wants Some!!
The Handmaiden
Certain Women
The Lobster
A Bigger Splash
Louder than Bombs

(Notable Omissions: Captain Fantastic)
Best Director
Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
Park Chan-wook - The Handmaiden
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
Daniels - Swiss Army Man
Paul Verhoven - Elle
Anna Rose Holmer - The Fits
Jeff Nichols - Loving
Mike Mills - 20th Century Women
Pablo Larrain - Jackie
Richard Linklater - Everybody Wants Some!!
Anna Biller - The Love Witch

(Notable Omissions: Trey Edward Shults - Krisha, Ken Loach - I Daniel Blake, Andrea Arnold - American Honey, Terence Davies - Sunset Song, Mia Hansen-Love - Things to Come, Kelly Fremon Craig - Edge of Seventeen)

Best Screenplay - Adapted
Arrival
Moonlight
Lion
Love & Friendship
Indignation
Elle

(Notable Omissions: The Girl on the Train, Denial, Snowden)

Best Screenplay - Original
Manchester by the Sea
The Lobster
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
Everybody Wants Some!!
A Bigger Splash
Louder than Bombs

(Notable Omissions: Paterson, American Honey, Krisha, Hello my Name is Doris, I Daniel Blake)

Best Animated
Zootopia
Moana

Umm.... I was not a fan of the other animated ones I saw.

(Notable Omissions: the Red Turtle, April & the Extraordinary World, Your Name, the Little Prince, My Life as a Zucchini, Miss Hokusai, Phantom Boy, 25 April)

Best Documentary
Weiner
Sonita
NUTS!

(Notable Omissions: OJ Made in America, Fire at Sea, I am Not Your Negro, 13th, Cameraperson, Tower, Tickled, Kate Plays Christine, Amanda Knox, Audrie & Daisy, Before the Flood, Miss Sharon Jones!, Notes on Blindness, Rats. I... did not see enough documentaries this year)
Best Foreign
Elle (France/Germany/Belgium)
The Handmaiden (South Korea)
Louder than Bombs (Norway/France/Denmark/US)
Neon Bull (Brazil/Uruguay/Netherlands)
Hunt for the Wilderpeople (New Zealand)
The Demons (Canada)
Love and Friendship (Ireland/France/Netherlands)
Microbe & Gasoline (France)
Wild (Germany)
The Lobster (Greece/Ireland/Netherlands/UK/France)

(Notable Omissions: Tanna, It's Only the End of the World, My Life as a Zucchini, Chevalier, As I Open My Eyes, Aquarius, Things to Come, Videophilia, Desierto)

Best Editing
Jackie
Moonlight
The Handmaiden
Elle
Green Room
Deadpool
The Lobster
Arrival
Swiss Army Man
Manchester by the Sea

(Notable Omissions: The Jungle Book, OJ Made in America, Cameraperson)

Best Cinematography
The Handmaiden
Jackie
Moonlight
Silence
Nocturnal Animals

(Notable Omissions: American Honey, Eyes of my Mother, Childhood of a Leader, Free in Deed)

Best Costumes
The Handmaiden
Jackie
Hail, Caesar!
Nocturnal Animals
The Love Witch
Love & Friendship

(Notable Omissions: Allied, Fantastic Beasts, Miss Peregrine (although I love that coat so much I debated whether it was a potential Halloween costume), Neon Demon, the Dressmaker)

Best Makeup
Jackie
Nocturnal Animals
Green Room
Swiss Army Man
Doctor Strange
Lemonade
Star Trek Beyond

(Notable Omissions: Neon Demon, Fantastic Beasts)
Best Production Design
The Handmaiden
The Love Witch
Jackie
Love & Friendship
The VVitch
Green Room
Hail Caesar
Arrival
Hell or High Water

(Notable Omissions: Neon Demon, Live by Night, Fantastic Beasts)
Best Visual Effects
Doctor Strange
Arrival
Rogue One
Kubo and the Two Strings
Swiss Army Man

(Notable Omissions: Batman v. Superman, the Shallows, Miss Peregrine's, Fantastic Beasts, the Jungle Book)

Best Score
Jackie
Moonlight
The Handmaiden
Hunt for the Wilderpeople
Everybody Wants Some!!
Arrival
High Rise
Elle
Lion
Swiss Army Man
20th Century Women

Honorable Mention: Stranger Things, Westworld


(Notable Omissions: Neon Demon, Edge of Seventeen, Christine, Midnight Special, The Land, American Honey, Childhood of a Leader)

Best Song/Musical Moment
No Dames! - Hail Caesar
Ralph Fiennes Emotional Rescue - A Bigger Splash
Greatest Love of All - Toni Erdmann
Drive it Like You Stole It - Sing Street
Shiny - Moana
How Far I'll Go - Moana
Lemonade
Chris Hemsworth - Ghostbusters
Practice on the Overpass - The Fits
Rappers Delight - Everybody Wants Some!!
Hello Stranger - Moonlight

(Notable Omissions: American Honey, Divines)

Best Animated Short
Deer Flower
Manoman (full video! 10m)
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes (I KNEW the animator was the same guy who did Metallica's Lemmy video! Here; check out the video for Murder One. It's a great one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Mkq6GFLIsk. (I thought it might have also been the same person who did Queens of the Stone Age's videos, including If I had a Tail, but that was the artist Boneface and directed by Liam Brazier.))
Piper
Mr. Madila (2015 new to me; full video! 8m)

Best Live Action Short
Thunder Road (full video! 13m)
Project X (full video! 10m)
Dear Mr Shakespeare (full video! 5m)
Liam and Lenka (2014 - new to me; full video! 18m)
Peace in the Valley (full video! 15m)
The Anthem (2006 - new to me; full video! 5m)
Worldly Desires (2005 - new to me; full video! 40m (I recommend watching the first 5 min at least)
Vapour (2015 - new to me. Can you tell I watched a whole program of Apichatpong Weerasethakul shorts?)
Track
In Attla's Tracks

Best Sound
Arrival
Jackie
Green Room
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One
Moana
Deadpool

(Notable Omissions: Don't Breathe, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, Neon Demon)

Best Debut Film
The Fits
Swiss Army Man
Lion
Kubo and the Two Strings
Deadpool
10 Cloverfield Lane

(Notable Omissions: Edge of Seventeen, Southside with You,  Kicks, Krisha, Legend of Barney Thompson)

Film I didn't get to that I am most looking forward to:
Sunset Song
American Honey
Always Shine
Tanna
Cameraperson
Tickled
London Road
Disorder
Edge of Seventeen
April and the Extraordinary World
Best Quote
"I didn't choose the skuxx life, the skuxx life chose me." - Hunt for the Wilderpeople
"What don't you want?" - Hell or High Water
"We came for a good time, not for a long time" - Everybody Wants Some!!
"Americans really have shown themselves to be a nation of ingrates, only by having children can we begin to understand such dynamic." - Love & Friendship
"I had a feeling that the great word 'respectable' would some day divide us." - Love & Friendship
"That's right! You're about to be killed by a zamboni! ... Tell me where your fucking boss is or you're going to die! In five minutes!" - Deadpool
"Douche: Okay, so...
Queso: Did someone say 'Queso'?
Douche: That's a fucking stretch and you know it, Queso!" - Sausage Party
"Lobsters live for over one hundred years, are blue-blooded like aristocrats, and stay fertile all their lives. I also like the sea very much." - The Lobster
"There were a lot of explosions for two people blending in." - Rogue One

Best Trailer
The Handmaiden
10 Cloverfield Lane
Jackie
Moonlight
A Bigger Splash
20th Century Women
American Honey
Rogue One teaser
Loving
Elle
Neon Demon

Best Poster
Moonlight
The Lobster
American Honey
American Pastoral
Deadpool
The Fits
The Demons
The Love Witch
Loving
Certain Women
The Handmaiden
Free Fire
Jackie
Always Shine
High Rise
Tickled
Nocturnal Animals
Suicide Squad
The Ornithologist
Little Sister
Notes on Blindness
Rams
Indignation
Portrait of a Garden
Kubo and the Two Strings
10 Cloverfield Lane

Unforgettable Moment Award [SPOILERS]
The argument - Indignation
The party - Toni Erdmann
Would that it were so simple - Hail Caesar!
The Police Station - Manchester by the Sea
Little's questions for Juan - Moonlight
The horse-ride - Certain Women
The Peas - Love & Friendship
The final scene - The Lobster
Rocks Fall, Everyone Dies - Rogue One
The Flashback truth - Arrival
Run off the road - Nocturnal Animals
The Calendar - Deadpool
Meeting Father Ferreira - Silence
Abott & Costello interlude - Doctor Strange
Splitting the baseball - Everybody Wants Some!!

Other Superlatives:
Best Trailer for a 2017 film: DunkirkLoganGet OutT2 (Trainspotting), A Cure for WellnessFree Fire (since it did NOT come out this year.)
2017 Film I am Most Looking Forward To: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Cat: Elle
Best Seals: Finding Dory
Best Flamingo: The Lobster
Best Female Action Star: Mary Elizabeth Winstead - 10 Cloverfield Lane (Runners Up: Felicity Jones - Rogue One, Brianna Hildebrand - Deadpool)
Best Action Scene:  The airport fight - Captain America Civil War (Runners Up: Counting Bullets - Deadpool, the fight on Scarif - Rogue One)
Movie You Wanted to Love But Just Couldn't: 
Best Hair: Greta Gerwig - 20th Century Women
Funniest Hair: George Clooney - Hail, Caesar
Most Wasted Potential of an Idea: The VVitch
Most ridiculous, entertaining music cue: Jurassic Park - Swiss Army Man
Best Cameo: Sigourney Weaver - Finding Dory
Best New to Me: Days of Heaven (Runners Up: The Last Waltz, Faust, Barry Lyndon, Full Metal Jacket, The Ladykillers)
Best Breakthrough: Royalty Hightower - The Fits
Best Ending (the McKayla Maroney award): The Lobster
Best Opening: 20th Century Women
Most shocking opening: Elle (Runner up: Nocturnal Animals)
Best Credits: Deadpool
Worst Song: The Audition - La La Land
Best Sciencing: Arrival
Most Overrated: La La Land

Best TV Show: STILL HANNIBAL.

Thursday, February 23, 2017

2017 Oscars

As always, going for 22/24 or better. But I'm happy if a "should win" triumphs over a "will win". (And honestly? I'd be happy to get 0/24 so long as La La Land doesn't get cinematography.)

If Oscar voters end up blanket awarding La La Land for every nominated category, I'm.... going to be even more deeply upset.

Best picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land - Will Win
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight - Should win

UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Lead actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land,
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences - Will Win

I'm giving this to Denzel by a hair, because actors make up the biggest bloc of oscar voters. But Casey Affleck has won more primary awards. I'm not sure who should win out of this group - they largely wouldn't be my picks - Denzel was good, but not great; Casey was brilliant, but a horrible human being, so I find myself going for Andrew (I see this almost as a co-nomination for Silence. Cough: https://letterboxd.com/harryrossi/list/2016-films-with-andrew-garfield-as-an-explicitly/)

Lead actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle - Should Win
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land - Will Win
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Supporting actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight - Will Win, Should Win
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Supporting actress
Viola Davis, Fences - Will Win
Naomie Harris, Moonlight - Should Win
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Best director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land - Will Win
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight - Should Win
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Animated feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia - Will Win

Haven't seen My Life as a Zucchini or the Red Turtle, so hard to say what should win. I personally prefer Moana to Zootopia, but I can see why Zootopia will win.

Animated short
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper - Will win, should win
Adapted screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight - Will win, should win

Original screenplay
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster - Should win
Manchester by the Sea - Will win

The Lobster and 20th Century Women should be up for best picture.
Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion - Will win
Moonlight - Should win
Silence

I'm going with the guild on this one. The popular opinion is that La La Land will take it, but I JUST CAN'T. I HATE La La Land's cinematography. And the experts thought Roger Deakins would win a few years back and then he didn't. Moonlight won a number of precursors, so there's some hope there. If La La Land wins this one, I will fucking break things.

Should win is tricky. I'm giving it to Moonlight by a hair. I do really like Silence's too. (I'm a sucker for foggy landscapes). Lion's was interesting, but I'm mostly hoping it'll beat LA. (Beat LA!)
Best documentary feature
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America - Will win

Best documentary short subject
4.1 Miles
Extremist
Joe’s Violin - Will win
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Extremis is more nominated, but apparently Joe's Violin more crowd-pleasing/oscar baity. That said, an anti-Trump vote for White Helmets could carry the day. But that may be confined to the foreign category below.

Best live-action short film
Ennemis Interieurs - Will win
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

Timecode as spoiler for winning a palme.

Best foreign language film
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
Tanna
The Salesman - Will Win
Toni Erdmann

ELLE SHOULD WIN. Harumph. (Not to mention Korea not even SUBMITTING The Handmaiden.) The Salesman has built a second phase anti-trump narrative, so I think it has edged Toni Erdmann, which had been in the lead.

I still really want to see Tanna. I keep missing it.

Film editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land - Will win
Moonlight - Should Win (although Arrival's editing is great, and Hacksaw Ridge's battle scenes are, too)

UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Sound editing
Arrival
Deep Water Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge - Will Win, Should Win
La La Land
Sully

Sound mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land - Will Win
Rogue One - Should Win
13 Hours

UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Production design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail Caesar! - Should Win (although I haven't seen fantastic beasts/passengers and passengers won for fantasy at the ADGs)
La La Land - Will win
Passengers

UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

The fact that the Handmaiden is not nominated here invalidates this category. Also! Normally this category is heavily dominated by the period nominees from the ADG but none (!) were nominated this go round (Jackie (so great), Cafe Society, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, and Hidden Figures - the winner in that group.)
Original score
Jackie
La La Land - Will win
Lion
Moonlight - Should win
Passengers

UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

I HATE the La La Land score. (Jackie's is also amazing, and Lion's is really good.) Here. Go listen to this and this as a palate cleanser.

Original song
Audition, La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling!, Trolls
City of Stars, La La Land - Will win
The Empty Chair, Jim: The James Foley Story
How Far I’ll Go, Moana - Should win

UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Come on. Give it to Lin. Let the man EGOT.
Makeup and hair
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond - Will win, should win
Suicide Squad

Star Trek won the guild for effects (suicide squad won character), but the Man Called Ove team won a couple of years back for the Man that Climbed Out the Window and Wandered Away, or whatever that movie was. But the Jaylah/Sofia Boutella alien was great.

Costume design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie - Should win
La La Land - Will Win

UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

At least Coleen Atwood won't get it again? The other winners in the guild awards (Hidden Figures and Doctor Strange) weren't even nominated. My favorite - Love & Friendship - was only up for a Critics Choice. I call bullshit.

Gold Derby actually has Jackie winning this. Pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease.
Visual effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Jungle Book - Will win (probably should - haven't seen it)
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

I do love the effects in Rogue One, but I'd give it to Doctor Strange for taking the technique in really new and exciting directions.