2022 Oscars Aftermath

Update 3/12: Let's re-use Lydia here. As expected, the two best nominated films walked away with nothing. I did very badly! My 2nd worst year, and not in a fun, 'Moonlight the worthy film upsets' way. 16/23. BUT! 21/23 with spoilers, so only Production Design was a real 'upset' and I had that in third place, alongside Brendan for Actor (and once Elvis lost makeup and costume, it became clear Austin wasn't going to win, either.)

[Whoops! Forgot to post the links to past years: 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21? I currently match most Oscar pundits on 17/23 categories, so that'll probably be what I get for 2022. (WEIRDLY, the ESPN contest has WILDLY different picks than most award sites, so I'm curious to see it that populism translates in what wins, or if I have a chance of doing particularly well there because I'm picking more of the Oscar-watchers picks.)]

Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin - Spoiler
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Will Win, Did win
The Fabelmans
Tár - Should Win
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

Oscar Predictions 2022

This is a weird year: 1) I have not stayed on top of the race, 2) I'm expecting my favorite film to walk away with nothing and 3) I'm giving myself till the end of the month to finish catching up on 2022 films, so some of the 'shouldas' might have looked different in a couple weeks. And yet, despite all this, I care very strongly about some of these categories! (short doc! Cinematography always but especially when a woman has a real shot! OBVIOUSLY SONG.)

[Ed update 3/12: whoops! Forgot to post the links to past years: 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21? I currently match most Oscar pundits on 17/23 categories, so that'll probably be what I get for 2022. (WEIRDLY, the ESPN contest has WILDLY different picks than most award sites, so I'm curious to see it that populism translates in what wins, or if I have a chance of doing particularly well there because I'm picking more of the Oscar-watchers picks.)]

Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin - Spoiler
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once - Will Win
The Fabelmans
Tár - Should Win
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

Shoulda Been a Contender: RRR, Bones & All, Decision to Leave, 

Weirdly, gold derby has Banshees in 2nd place, which I did not foresee, so I'm putting it as spoiler. I thought Tár would have that. I do think EEAAO has the momentum to sweep a lot. In fact, I think MOST awards will be going to EEAAO and All Quiet (which I have 0 interest in seeing because every critic I respect says it's not good and the original is better and I love the original). I'm pleased something weird is going to win a lot, but I didn't love it, and it makes for a kind of boring lead up. All Quiet won the BAFTA, and the European contingent is strong, but EEAAO won the PGA and SAG.