So... What are we doing for New Years?: January 2020

Edit: Updated with the noms bolded. This year is WEIRD.

88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers. Boo - I got worse. More later - but quick impressions:

No Once Upon a Time for Editing?! Whoa. That doesn't bode well. But thankfully 1917 didn't get one either, and those two are probably the ones to beat alongside Joker.
Yay Parasite over Joker for Production Design!
Noooooo No Glasgow for Best Song. Sniffles
Yaaaaaaaaaaas The Lighthouse for Cinematography!!!
NO FROZEN FOR BEST ANIMATED 😲

The left-field ones: Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell (yay! Although boo for Hustlers), Edge of Democracy, Corpus Christie, Joker for costumes, Maleficent for Makeup, Toy Story 4 for song, Ad Astra for Mixing (???), 1917 for Sound Editing, Walk Run Cha-Cha.

The categories I got entirely: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (not a hard year...), Best Adapted Screenplay,

This shortened season is messing with my head. I've done this a couple of times now - here's 2018 (I got 91/121 outright, and 113/121 counting spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 if you count spoilers). Let's go for 92 this year?

Best Picture

The most sure:
1. Once Upon a Time
2. Parasite
3. The Irishman
4. JoJo Rabbit
These have the SAG/PGA/DGA noms, which are the most important precursors.

Pretty Sure:
5. 1917 (on the upswing, lots of BAFTA and craft noms, WGA, no SAGs)
6. Ford v. Ferrari (editing nods are good, plus craft noms and three BAFTAs, SAG actor, but not ensemble)
7. Joker (crafts, BAFTAs, WGA, SAG actor, but not ensemble)

Maybe:
8. Little Women (5 BAFTAs, WGA, no SAGs)
9. Marriage Story (3 SAGs, WGA, some indies, 5 BAFTAs)

If 10:
10. Knives Out (PGA)

Spoilers
Bombshell (SAG ensemble)
Dolemite (GG, NBR, Won CCA - comedy)
Uncut Gems (indie, CCA, NBR)
Two Popes (BAFTA brit nom, GG)
Rocketman (GG)
The Farewell (indie, NBR - indie)

I wish A Hidden Life were being discussed. At all.

Best Director

Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
Martin Scorsese - Irishman
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time
Taika Waititi - JoJo
Sam Mendes - 1917

Spoilers:
Todd Phillips - Joker (please no, please no, please no - BAFTA, GG)
Greta Gerwig - Little Women (CCA, NSFC)
Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story (CCA)
The Safdie Brothers - Uncut Gems (CCA)
Lulu Wang - The Farewell (no precursors, but campaigning hard)

I just don't have any faith in a woman getting nominated

Best Editing

Irishman (Thelma! ACE Eddie, BAFTA, CCA))
Ford v. Ferrari (Ace Eddie, BAFTA, CCA)
JoJo Rabbit (Ace Eddie - Comedy, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (Ace Eddie - Comedy, BAFTA)
Parasite (Ace Eddie, CCA)

Spoilers
Joker (ACE Eddie, BAFTA (please no, please no, please no))
1917 - I... can't with an edit nom here. But it just won the CCA. It has no other nominations, but someone was just mentioning they expected an editing nod, which I found so bizarre.
Knives Out (Ace Eddie - comedy)
Marriage Story (Ace Eddie)
The Farewell (Ace Eddie - comedy)
Uncut Gems (CCA)

Best Actress

Renee Zellweger - Judy
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Lupita Nyongo - Us
Charlize Theron - Bombshell

Spoiler:
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Awkwafina - The Farewell
Alfre Woodard - Clemency

Cynthia got the SAG nom, but Saoirse got the BAFTA (so did Jessie Buckley, but Wild Rose wasn't seen as much here.) Mary Kay Place got a few nods, but I can't see an upset here. I'm hoping Lupita stays in, so that the Oscars don't go all white, like the BAFTAs.

Personally, I'm THRILLED Karen Allen is up for an Indie for Colewell, which a beautiful performance. And I can't speak to Portrait of a Lady on Fire because of their STUPID STUPID release strategy.

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio - Once
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker (Imma just pretend this is for You Were Never Really Here)
Taron Egerton - Rocketman
Christian Bale - Ford v. Ferrari
Adam Driver - Marriage Story

Going with the SAG picks here, largely because Christian Bale is demonstrably beloved by the academy (also I really loved this performance, so I'm *hoping* he stays in)

Spoilers
Jonathan Pryce - the Two Popes (BAFTA, GG nods)
Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory (GG, NSFC, NYFC, LAFC nods)
Robert DeNiro - Irishman (CCA nod)
Eddie Murphy - Dolemite (GG, CCA nods)
Adam Sandler (Gotham, Indie, NSFC, NBR nods)

Personally, if 1917 ends up over-performing, I'd love to see George Mackay here - I thought he was great.

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern - Marriage Story (the one to beat)
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Scarlett Johansson - JoJo
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers

Not guessed: Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell

Spoilers
Margot Robbie - Once Upon (BAFTA)
Nicole Kidman - Bombshell (SAG, but no others)

I think Florence has been so beloved in the role, that she'll upset despite no SAG nod. She got the BAFTA, as well as a few other nods. And she's having a big year (see: Vogue cover this month). I'd LOVE to see Zhao Shuzhen in here for the Farewell.

Best Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time (he's gonna win)
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Tom Hanks - It's a Beautiful Day
Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes (BAFTA, GG)

Spoiler
Jamie Foxx - Just Mercy (SAG, but nothing else)
Song Kang Ho - Parasite (NSFC)
Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse (CCA, beloved)

Personally I'd love to see Jonathan Majors or Matt Damon make it in.

Screenplay - Original

Booksmart (WGA, BAFTA)
Knives Out (WGA, BAFTA)
Marriage Story (WGA, BAFTA, GG)
Once Upon a time (WGA ineligible, BAFTA, won GG, NSFC runner-up)
Parasite (WGA, BAFTA, NSFC winner, GG)

Spoilers
1917 (WGA)
The Farewell
Uncut Gems

Screenplay - Adapted

So - usually the USC scripter is the best predictor in this category, until last year when Leave No Trace was so RUDELY shut out. But still.
Irishman (WGA, BAFTA, GG, Scripter)
JoJo (WGA, BAFTA, Scripter)
Little Women (WGA, BAFTA, NSFC runner-up, Scripter)
Two Popes (BAFTA, GG, Scripter)
Joker (WGA, BAFTA)

Spoilers
Dark Waters (Scripter)
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (WGA)

Animated

Frozen 2 (10 nods; 8 Annie noms)
How to Train Your Dragon (8 nods, 6 Annie)
Missing Link (6 nods, 8 Annie)
Toy Story 4 (11 nods, 6 Annie)
I Lost My Body (7 overall nods, 6 annie - but the big one was for best indie; CCA, also the Oscars have recently often had an adult animation that makes the cut) (And it got an ACE Eddie nom.)

Spoilers
Abominable (6 nods, 4 Annie))
Klaus (BAFTA; 3 nods, 7 Annie)
Shaun the Sheep: Farmaggedon (BAFTA, but... home town pride)
Weathering With You (4 Annies)

Documentary

American Factory (PGA, DGA, BAFTA, won IDA- directing, ACE Eddie, WOn CinemaEye)
The Cave (PGA, DGA)
Honeyland (PGA, DGA)
Apollo 11 (PGA, BAFTA, Ace Eddie)
For Sama (PGA, BAFTA, won IDA)

Not Guessed: Edge of Democracy

Spoilers
One Child Nation (PGA, DGA)
Advocate (PGA)
The Great Hack (BAFTA)
Maiden (DGA)
Midnight Family (won the IDA for Editing)

I wish Aquarela was getting more love.

Foreign

So... this is bizarrely tricky, because Parasite and Pain & Glory are pretty sure things, but then pretty much all the precursors have been nominating things that didn't make the shortlist, so.... ???
Parasite (GG, BAFTA, Indie, NBR)
Pain & Glory
Les Miserables (CCA, Indie, GG)
Atlantics (CCA, NBR)
Beanpole. Why not. I hear good things, and Russia has a good track record.

Not guessed: Corpus Christie ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Spoilers
Honeyland (unless this gets a bump from the overlap with documentary?)
The Painted Bird
I literally have heard nothing about the three eastern European ones, so I can't imagine them getting in. Whither Monos? Invisible Life? Not to mention all those that didn't qualify for their country noms: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Transit, the Farewell, Ash is Purest White, etc. etc.

Cinematography

1917.

Oh, there will be others? Fine:
Ford v. Ferrari (guild, BAFTA)
Irishman (guild, BAFTA)
Joker (guild, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (guild)

Spoilers
The Lighthouse (guild - spotlight nom, Indie, BAFTA). I'd love for this to get in.
Midsommar (Indie)
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (won NSFC, NYFC, LAFC)/Atlantics (won NSFC) - both Calire Mathon
Little Women (NSFC runner-up)
Parasite (no precursors, but if it over-performs)

Monos and Honey Boy also got spotlight noms from the guild. Monos is beautifully shot.

Costumes

Dolemite is my Name (Guild - P, won CCA)
JoJo (Guild - P, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (Guild - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Little Women (CCA, BAFTA, lots of press)
Rocketman (Guild - P, CCA)

Not guessed: Joker. Obviously wildly overperforming with the most nods

Spoilers
Downton Abbey (guild - P, CCA)
The Irishman (CCA, BAFTA)
Judy (BAFTA, Brit Indie)
Knives Out (Guild - C, sweater!)
Hustlers (Guild - C)

As with production design, the nods tend to go toward the guild period nominations, rather than the contemporary or fantasy noms.

Makeup/Hair

So there are gonna be 5 noms this go around ?!?!?!
Bombshell (Won the guild for contemporary makeup, contemporary hair, and fx - prosthetics done by Kazu Hiro, who won last year, won the CCA, BAFTA nom)
Dolemite (Guild nom - period makeup, period hair, CCA)
Joker - (Won the guild for period makeup, nominated for contemporary hair (?!), CCA nom, BAFTA nom)
Rocketman (3 guild noms, CCA, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (2 guild noms, CCA)

Not guessed: Maleficent

Spoilers
Judy (CCA, BAFTA)
Downton Abbey (Won guild - period hair, nom - period makeup)
1917 (BAFTA)

Little Women and Maleficent are the only others on the shortlist, but neither has any precursors)

Production Design

Once Upon a Time (won CCA, BAFTA, ADG - P)
1917 (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
JoJo Rabbit (ADG - P, BAFTA)
Irishman (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Joker (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)

Spoilers
Ford v. Ferrari (ADG - P)
Parasite (ADG - C, CCA, the best house. But Oscars often want more locales)
Downton Abbey (CCA)
Knives Out (ADG - C)

Generally period noms are worth more than contemporary or fantasy.

Visual Effects

Alita
Avengers Endgame
Gemini Man
Star Wars
1917

Spoilers
Terminator Dark Fate
Irishman
Lion King

Cats made the shortlist, y'all. Don't take the Oscars too seriously.

Score

Joker (Gudnadottir; BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Little Women (Desplat; BAFTA, CCA, GG)
1917 (Thomas Newman; BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman; CCA, GG)
Motherless Brooklyn (Pemberton; GG)

Spoilers
Us (Abels; CCA)
Star Wars (Williams)
JoJo (Giacchino)

I'd really love to see Mica Levi's Monos. I also LOVE that The Dø made the shortlist for I Lost My Body, and it would be thrilling for an animated film to get in (they won the LAFC). Nicholas Britell is (deservedly!) having a moment, but I think The King is too derided to score here.

Song

Glasgow - Wild Rose (Won CCA (it was a tie). I'm rooting for this one - it was the best part of the film, plus: Mary Steenburgen! Jessie Buckley!)
(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again - Rocketman (Won GG & CCA; Elton John)
Into the Unknown - Frozen (GG, CCA nom; Let it Go team - plus, the chance for Adele Dazeem to sing again!)
Spirit - Lion King (GG, CCA nom; Beyonce)
Stand Up - Harriet (GG, CCA nom; Cynthia Erivo)

Not Guessed: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away - Toy Story 4

Spoilers
Speechless - Aladdin. It's Menkin with Pasek & Paul, soo..... also CCA nom
I'm Standing with You - Breakthrough (CCA nom, Diane Warren)
A Glass of Soju - Parasite (Bong!)
Daily Battles - Motherless Brooklyn (Wynton Marsalis)
Never Too Late - Lion King (Elton John)

Sound - Mixing

Ford v. Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
Irishman

Not guessed: Ad Astra

The above are the CAS guid noms

Spoilers
1917
Star Wars
I hesitate to even say it, but mixing often skews toward musicals so... we could theoretically see a Cats nom. But I'm guessing any tech category will be tarred by the rest of the disaster

Sound - Editing

Joker - 3 guild noms
Ford v. Ferrari - 2 guild noms
Once Upon a Time - 3 guild noms
Avengers Endgame - 2 guild noms
Rocketman - 2 guild noms

Not Guessed: 1917

Spoilers
JoJo Rabbit - 2 guild noms
Star wars - guild nom: foley
Irishman - guild nom: dialogue

Short Doc

In the Absence (Cinemaeye, IDA nom, CCA, DocNYC)
Ghosts of Sugarland (Cinemaeye, Doc NYC)
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you're a girl) (IDA winner, DocNYC, BAFTA)
St. Louis Superman (Cinemaeye, IDA shortlist, DocNYC)
Stay Close (Cinemaeye, DocNYC)

Not Guessed: Walk Run Cha-Cha (literally the only one without a single precursor)

Spoilers
The Nightcrawlers (IDA nom, DocNYC)
Life Overtakes Me (Cinemaeye)
After Maria (IDA nom)
Fire in Paradise (DocNYC)

Short Live

Brotherhood
The Christmas Gift (EFA winner)
Sometimes I think About Dying
Saria
Refugee

Spoilers
Little Hands
Miller & Son
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors' Window
A Sister

??? Basically there are never any precursors here, as opposed to docs.

Short Animated

Hair Love
He Can't Live Without Cosmos
Kitbull
Sister
Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days (Annie nom)

Spoilers:
Hors Piste (this was widely available and could make it, but... I disliked it and the first We Can't Live Without Cosmos was so good, I'm hoping the second follows) [Ed: awww. No Cosmos.]
Dcera
Memorable
Mind my Mind
Physics of Sorrow

Well, I didn't really try to do this this year, and as I've seen about 100 fewer films, I've seen 2 fewer than last year (40 in total). But in the interest of clearing out my watchlist on Letterboxd:

Hail Satan? - Penny Lane - 4.5 stars. This is hilarious. It's so good.
The Farewell - Lulu Wang - 4.5 stars. So lovely. I'm rooting for Oscars.
The Souvenir - Joanna Hogg - 4.5 stars. I'm not done with the year yet, but I'm sure this will be in my top 5. Stunningly beautiful
Anthropocene: The Human Epoch - Jennifer Baichwal (co-dir) - 4.5 stars. Jaw-dropping cinematography from around the world
High Life - Claire Denis - 4 stars. I think I'm still processing this.
The Nightingale - Jennifer Kent. Ditto
Booksmart - Olivia Wilde - 4 stars. Very cute - Kaitlyn Dever and Billie Lourd are so great.
The Seer and the Unseen - Sara Dosa - 4 stars. This was lovely - and I loved the questions it raises about faith and belief.
Captain Marvel - Anna Boden (Co-dir) - 3.5 stars. Garbage needle drop! Top Gun! Ben Mendelssohn! Goose!
Late Night - Nisha Ganatra - 3.5 stars. I liked this way more than I was expecting to. Emma Thompson is a treasure.
Core of the World - Natalya Meshchaninova - 3.5 stars
Hustlers - Lorene Scafaria - 3.5 stars. Constance Wu doesn't totally work for me, but there's a lot to enjoy here.
Little Women - Greta Gerwig - 3 stars. This was disappointing to me because I LOVE Lady Bird. But Florence Pugh and Eliza Scanlen aside, the Gillian Armstrong version is so much better.
The Little Comrade - Moonika Siimets - 3 stars. I forgot this was this year! An interesting companion piece to JoJo Rabbit.
When I'm a Moth - Magdalena Zyzak - 2.5 stars. The lead actress is good, the Japanese actors are good, and there are some beautiful shots, but this is too meandering to really work.

Shorts:
Ritual in Transfigured Time - Maya Deren - 5 stars
Lost World - Kalyanee Mam - 5 stars (I quite liked this and it's online!)
Cold Pudding Settles Love - Urszula Palusińska - 5 stars (I fucking love this animated short. It's SO WEIRD)
Enforcement Hours - Paloma Martinez - 4.5 stars. Incredibly well edited film about an SF immigrant hotline. I thought this was a big step up from Crisanto Street (which I also enjoyed)
Meshes of the Afternoon - Maya Deren - 4 stars
The Very Eye of Night - Maya Deren - 4 stars
Brotherhood - Meryam Joobeur - 4 stars. On the shortlist for the Oscars
Fuck You - Anette Sidor - 4 stars
Now and There, Here and Then - Sun Park - 4 stars
Traces with Elikem - Airana Gerstein - 4 stars
Confidence Game - Kathleen Quillian - 4 stars
At Land - Maya Deren - 3.5 stars
Night and Day - Emma Matthews (co-dir) - 3.5 stars (obviously I only saw part of the 24 hours...)
Don't You Forget About Me - Lydia Ricci - 3.5 stars
Bless You! - Paulina Ziółkowska - 3.5 stars
I'm OK - Elizabeth Hobbs - 3.5 stars
Fast Horse - Alexandra Lazarowich - 3.5 stars
Life Overtakes Me - Kristine Samuelson (co-dir) - 3.5 stars. On the Oscar short doc shortlist.
Edgecombe - Crystal Kayiza - 3.5 stars
Mixed Signals - Courtney Stephens - 3.5 stars
That Woman - Sandra Davis - 3.5 stars
Mitya's Love - Svetlana Filippova - 3 stars
The Labyrinth - Laura Huertas Millán - 3 stars
The Slows - Nicole Perlman - 2.5 stars
Pelourinho, They Don’t Really Care About Us - Akosua Adoma Owusu - 2.5 stars

So... What are we doing for New Years?

Sunday, January 12, 2020

2019 Oscar Nom Predictions

Thursday, January 2, 2020

52 Films by Women - 2019

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

2019 mixes