Sunday, March 10, 2024

Oscar Predictions

Given that I've been covering two jobs since October, I'm not really on top  of the race, but here we go. Past years: 2022: 16 (yikes), 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21?

I am once again entering the ESPN contest, which has some BONKERS predictions going on*, beat the crowd, plus I somehow got invited to a private pool that has, uhhhh, some industry folks/critics/fanatics. I'm not sure how that happened. I'm picking against the odds on 4/5 categories (depending on who you look at.) My boldest pick is going BAFTA for Boy with the Heron. I just think people will go lifetime achievement (but I certainly wouldn't be sad if spiderverse won. I REALLY wanted it to come back to the Metreon imax.) And (for most contests) I'm swapping the Barbie/Poor Things Costume/Production Design picks. Plus the doc and animated shorts. We shall see. 

*I mean, To Kill a Tiger for doc? Invincible for live action short? Really? Then again, stranger things have happened...

Also - I usually put "should win" in here, but I still have to see 4 of the best picture nominees (again - covering two roles since Oct...), so I am mostly not doing them. My plan is to try to catch up this week and pick my top films next weekend. (But again - we'll see. I have to work late at least one night this week.)

Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall - spoiler
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer - will win
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

If Oppenheimer doesn't win, I'll eat my fedora. 



Best Director
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) - will win
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) - spoiler
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Best Actress
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) - will win
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things) - spoiler

This is the only acting race that is up in the air. Emma won the BAFTA and CCA, Lily won the drama GG and SAG. Both actors and European are large voting blocs. But I think that the Academy voters will go for the historical significance of the win. And I loved Lily SO much in Certain Women I'm pulling for her. 



Best Actor
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) - spoiler
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) - will win
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey, Jr. (Oppenheimer) - will win
Ryan Gosling (Barbie) - spoiler
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) - spoiler
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) - will win

Best International Feature Film
Io Capitano (Matteo Garrone, Italy)
Society of the Snow (J.A. Bayona, Spain) - Spoiler
The Teachers’ Lounge (İlker Çatak, Germany)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer, United Kingdom) - will win
Perfect Days (Wim Wenders, Japan)

I'm going with Zone, since it's up for best picture (Anatomy won more precursors, but was ineligible.) I still can't believe Teacher's Lounge got in over Fallen Leaves, Taste of Things, or 20 days. 

Best Cinematography
Ed Lachman (El Conde)
Matthew Libatique (Maestro)
Rodrigo Prieto (Killers of the Flower Moon) - spoiler
Robbie Ryan (Poor Things)
Hoyte van Hoytema (Oppenheimer) - will win

Best Adapted Screenplay
Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Cord Jefferson (American Fiction) - will win
Tony McNamara (Poor Things) - spoiler
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

I think this is where American Fiction gets its oscar. 

Best Original Screenplay
Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik (May December)
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer (Maestro)
Arthur Harari and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) - will win
David Hemingson (The Holdovers)
Celine Song (Past Lives) - spoiler

I think this is where Anatomy gets its oscar. Sadly, this is where Past Lives had its best shot. (I think Holdovers is also a strong spoiler here)

Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron - will win
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Spoiler

The money is on Spider-verse (PGA, CCA, ACE, NBR), which I think in many ways is the better film, but I think voters will give it to Miyazaki for his career. (Heron won the BAFTA & GG)



Best Visual Effects
The Creator; Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould - Spoiler
Godzilla Minus One; Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima  - will win
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3; Theo Bialek, Stephanie Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot & Guy Williams
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One; Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
Napoleon; Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould

The Creator won the VES, the BAFTA and CCA went to non-nominated films. But I think Godzilla has the name recognition and they've done a great job with the narrative on the director/vfx and akubrick comparisons. 

Best Editing
Jennifer Lame (Oppenheimer) - will win
Yorgos Mavropsaridis (Poor Things)
Thelma Schoonmaker (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Laurent Sénéchal (Anatomy of a Fall) - spoiler
Kevin Tent (The Holdovers)

Best Production Design
Ruth De Jong and Claire Kaufman (Oppenheimer)
Jack Fisk and Adam Willis (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer (Barbie) - will win
Elli Griff and Arthur Max (Napoleon)
Shona Heath, Szusza Mihalek, and James Price (Poor Things) - Spoiler

So Barbie, interestingly, didn't win the guild award, Poor Things did (along with Oppenheimer and Saltburn). But I think voters will go for the actual built dream house. 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, and Ahou Mofid (Oppenheimer)
Mark Coulier, Nadia Stacey, and Josh Weston (Poor Things) - Spoiler
Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro, and Lori McCoy-Bell (Maestro) - will win
Karen Hartley and Suzi Battersby (Golda)
Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse Ribé (Society of the Snow)

I nearly put Poor Things, which won the BAFTA, but I do think Maestro (which won the guild) and Kazu Hiro will take it.

Best Costume Design
Jacqueline Durran (Barbie) - spoiler
Ellen Mirojnick (Oppenheimer)
Holly Waddington (Poor Things) - Will win, Should win
Jacqueline West (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Janty Yates and David Crossman (Napoleon)

This could easily go Barbie. They both won guild awards (along with Saltburn), Barbie won the CCA, Poor Things the BAFTA. Weirdly, I have Poor Things down as a spoiler in many categories, but this might be my only prediction for a win. 

(Look. I liked Jacqueline Durran's costumes for Peterloo, and Haley's dresses in Cyrano, and the green dress will always be perhaps the most iconic. But Little Women was recent.)



Best Sound
The Creator; Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One; Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
The Zone of Interest; Johnnie Burn and Tarn Willers - spoiler
Oppenheimer; Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell, and Gary A. Rizzo - will win
Maestro; Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder, and Dean Zupancic

Big boom.

(Zone won the BAFTA and Maestro one of the MPSEs. Oppenheimer won the other two MPSEs and the CAS.) 

Best Documentary Feature
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters - spoiler
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol - will win

Won the BAFTA, was the only nominee also up for a PGA, I think voters will go for the subject matter and story. 

Best Original Song
It Never Went Away— Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson (American Symphony) - spoiler
What Was I Made For?— Billie Eilish and Finneas (Barbie) - will win
Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People—The Osage Tribe (Killers of the Flower Moon)
I’m Just Ken— Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (Barbie)
The Fire Inside— Diane Warren (Flamin’ Hot)

Billie won the GG and the guild, Ken won the CCA. (Also HOW GOOD was the choice of Bury a Friend for the new True Detective?) (Are either of Billie's oscar songs my favorites of hers? Not so much, but she's great and I'm happy for her to win.)
HOWEVER, since American Symphony won a lot of precursors, but didn't make the nom, and Jon Batiste is beloved by voters, I am picking him for the spoiler, in case Barbie splits its own votes. 

Best Original Score
Jerskin Fendrix (Poor Things) - spoiler
Ludwig Göransson (Oppenheimer) - will win
Laura Karpman (American Fiction)
Robbie Robertson (Killers of the Flower Moon)
John Williams (Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny)

Oppenheimer won the BAFTA, CCA and GG. 

Best Documentary Short Subject
The ABCs of Book Banning - spoiler
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop  - will win
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

Book banning is the hot political issue, but Last Replair shop was up for more precursors, so I'm bucking the pundits. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Best Live Action Short
The After 
Invincible 
Knight of Fortune 
Red, White and Blue - spoiler
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar - will win

I mean, it's great. I could see voters going with the relevant abortion story though. 

Best Animated Short
Letter to a Pig - will win
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko - spoiler

War is Over seems awful, and I can't believe it's leading in the odds, but maybe academy voters would go for something that trite and call it 'talking about the middle east'? I've only seen Letter to a Pig, but short of the week also liked Pachyderme and Our Uniform, and Ross reports that he thinks Pachyderme is the best of the bunch. 

(Also - I did think Letter to a Pig was well done, and I wonder how the holocaust films will do in voting.)

So I think the best pic nominees shake out like this:
American Fiction - adapted screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall - original screenplay
Barbie - production design, song
The Holdovers - supporting actress
Killers of the Flower Moon - actress
Maestro - makeup
Oppenheimer - picture, director, actor, supporting actor, cinematography, editing, sound, score
Past Lives - *sniffles*
Poor Things - costume
The Zone of Interest - foreign



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