Why are the Oscar noms coming out before at least a couple of guilds? Who knows.
I haven't seen a lot of the frontrunners. Will that help? Hinder? Who's to say.
Also I am SO excited that finally - finally! - members will have to have watched every nominated film in a category to vote in it. I don't think that holds true for the noms, but I think it's long overdue as a rule.
Past years:
2024 (89/120 (74.2%); 110/120 (91.67%))
2022 (91/120 (75.8%); 114/120 (95%))
2021 (79/120 (65.8%); 108/120 (90%))
2020 (84/118 (71%); 110/118 (93%))
2019 (88/124 (71%); 113/124 (91%))
2018 (91/121 (75%); 113/121 (93.4%))
2017 (90/122 (73.8%); 118/122 (96.7%))
Once again, I'm going to put correct in bold purple (or blue for spoilers), and anything totally missed in italic red. Color commentary after the noms in burgundy.
Total: 99/125 (79.2%) New personal best!
With Spoilers: 119/125 (95.2%) Second best!
Perfect Categories: Best Actor, Director, Adapted screenplay, International, Animated, Cinematography, Sound - 7!!! That's my best total ever.
Missed Entirely: Sentimental Value for editing (very exciting! And I hope it means good things for the film - I'm delighted it got as many nods as Frankenstein/Marty Supreme and Editing is an important one! (Although I do think Docs with years of footage are unfairly overlooked in general)), Avatar for costume - what??, Sweet Dreams of Joy - Viva Verdi - yay for classical lovers I guess? What an unusual pick for the Oscars, Butcher's Stain and Jane Austen's Period Drama for live short, Three Sisters for animated short.
Best Picture
Definite
1. Frankenstein
2. Hamnet
3. Marty Supreme
4. One Battle After Another
5. Sinners
6. Sentimental Value
Likely
7. The Secret Agent
8. Train Dreams
9. Bugonia
Maybe
10. It Was Just An Accident
Spoilers
F1
Weapons
Blue Moon
No Other Choice
Sirat
Editing
Ace Eddie noms aren't out, so...
One Battle
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Perfect Neighbor
F1
Sentimental Value - Delighted by this! It really wasn't on the radar and that shows how beloved it is.
Spoilers
Hamnet
House of Dynamite
Frankenstein
Weapons
Bugonia
Best Actress
Chase Infiniti - One Battle After Another (SAG, BAFTA ll, CCA, GG-C, Gotham nom-deb, NBR won-deb)
Emma Stone - Bugonia (SAG, BAFTA ll, CCA, GG-C)
Jessie Buckley - Hamnet (SAG, BAFTA ll, WON-CCA, WON GG-D, Gotham)
Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value (BAFTA ll, CCA, GG-D, NSFC runner up)
Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (SAG, BAFTA ll, CCA, WON GG-C, NSFC runner up, Indie, WON NBR, WON NYFCC)
Spoilers
Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue (SAG, BAFTA ll, GG-C)
Amanda Seyfried - Testament of Ann Lee (CCA, GG-C, Gotham)
Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby (GG-D) She doesn't really have a chance, I don't think, but I would LOVE to see her get in over Emma Stone
Jennifer Lawrence - Die My Love (BAFTA ll, GG-D, Gotham, Brit Indie)
Tessa Thompson - Hedda (BAFTA ll, GG-D, Gotham, Indie)
Best Actor
Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon (SAG, BAFTA ll, CCA, GG-C, WON-NSFC, Gotham, WON-LAFC)
Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle (SAG, BAFTA ll, CCA, GG-C, WON-NBR)
Michael B. Jordan - Sinners (SAG, BAFTA ll, CCA, GG-D, NSFC Runner Up)
Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme (SAG, BAFTA ll, WON-CCA, WON-GG C, LAFC Runner Up)
Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent (CCA, WON-GG D, NSFC Runner Up, Gotham, WON NYFC, LAFC Runner Up)
Spoilers
Jesse Plemons - Bugonia (SAG, BAFTA ll, GG-C)
Joel Edgerton - Train Dreams (BAFTA ll, CCA, GG-D, Indie)
Lee Byung-hun - No Other Choice (GG-C, Gotham)
I would like Josh O'Connor - The Mastermind (Gotham) or Ben Whishaw - Peter Hujar's Day (Indie), but neither really has a chance.
Best Supporting Actress
Teyana Taylor - One Battle (SAG, BAFTA ll, WON-NSFC, CCA, WON-GG, Gotham, WON-LAFC)
Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners (SAG, BAFTA ll, NSFC Runner Up, CCA, WON Gotham)
I am real torn on Amy Madigan - Weapons (SAG, BAFTA ll, WON-CCA, GG, WON-NYFC). Horror rarely breaks through, but SAGs are good predictors...
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value (BAFTA ll, NSFC Runner up, CCA, GG, Gotham, WON NBR, LAFC Runner up)
Odessa A'zion - Marty Supreme (SAG, BAFTA ll)
Spoilers
Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value (CCA, GG) I'd love for her to get in, but I think the Sentimental Value votes will split. Yaaaaaaaaay!
Ariana Grande - Wicked (SAG, BAFTA ll, GG)
Emily Blunt - Smashing Machine (GG)
... Emily Watson - Hamnet (BAFTA ll)?? Zoey Deutch - Nouvelle Vague (Indie)??
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro - One Battle (SAG, BAFTA ll, WON-NSFC, CCA, GG, Gotham, WON-NBR, WON - NYFC)
Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein (SAG, BAFTA ll, WON-CCA, GG, Gotham)
Paul Mescal - Hamnet (SAG, BAFTA ll, CCA, GG)
Sean Penn - One Battle (SAG, BAFTA ll, CCA, GG)
Stellan Skarsgård - Sentimental Value (BAFTA ll, NSFC Runner Up, CCA, WON-GG, Gotham)
Spoilers
Adam Sandler - Jay Kelly (BAFTA ll, CCA, GG, Gotham,
Andrew Scott - Blue Moon (BAFTA ll, Gotham)
Miles Canton - Sinners (SAG, CCA WON-young)
Alexander Skarsgård - Pillion (BAFTA ll, Gotham, Brit Indie). A - I would love for father and son to be nominated together, B - given the acclaim its received in the UK, I do NOT understand A24's distribution strategy here. Whyyyy isn't it out already??
Delroy Lindo - Sinners (BAFTA ll, NSFC Runner Up)
Director
Chloe Zhao - Hamnet (DGA, CCA, BAFTA ll, GG)
Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme (DGA, CCA, BAFTA ll, GG)
Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle (DGA, WON-CCA, BAFTA ll, NSFC - WON, GG-WON, Gotham, WON-NBR, WON - LAFC)
Ryan Coogler - Sinners (DGA, CCA, BAFTA ll, GG, LAFC Runner Up
Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value (CCA, BAFTA ll, GG, WON-EFA,
Spoilers
Guillermo del Toro - Frankenstein (DGA, CCA)
Jafar Panahi - It Was Just an Accident (NSFC Runner Up, GG, WON-Gotham, WON-NYFC, EFA)
I would love either Eva Victor (DGA nom-deb) or Harry Lighton (DGA nom-deb) and Kelly Reichardt (Gotham) and Lynne Ramsey (BAFTA ll, Brit Indie)
Original Screenplay
WGA noms aren't out yet, so...
It Was Just an Accident (BAFTA ll, WON-NSFC, GG, WON-Gotham, WON-LAFC, EFA)
Marty Supreme (BAFTA ll, CCA, GG, WON-NYFC)
Sentimental Value (BAFTA ll, CCA, GG, WON-EFA)
Sinners (BAFTA ll, WON-CCA, GG, WON-NBR
Sorry Baby (CCA, Gotham, Indie, LAFC Runner Up) - really hoping this one squeaks in. *sigh* I did see some pundits also think it had momentum. I'm so sad it didn't get it.
Spoilers
The Secret Agent (BAFTA ll, NSFC Runner Up, Gotham)
Blue Moon (BAFTA ll, NSFC Runner Up). Awww - man! I swapped this one last minute with Sorry Baby.
Jay Kelly (CCA)
Weapons (BAFTA ll, CCA)
Is This Thing on (BAFTA ll)
Adapted Screenplay
Hamnet (BAFTA ll, CCA, GG, USC)
One Battle (BAFTA ll, WON-CCA, WON-GG, USC, Gotham)
Train Dreams (BAFTA ll, CCA, USC, Gotham, WON-NBR
Bugonia (BAFTA ll, CCA)
Frankenstein (BAFTA ll, CCA, USC). I will be mad. I have thoughts about this script.
Spoilers
Peter Hujar's Day (USC)
No Other Choice (CCA, Gotham)
Pillion (BAFTA ll, WON-Gotham, Brit Indie, WON Brit Indie-deb)
Ballad of Wallis Island (BAFTA ll, WON Brit Indie, Brit Indie-deb). If only...
Nuremberg (BAFTA ll)
Casting
New category! New category! No history vibes to rely on! (Stunts starts in a couple of years)
Hamnet (Guilde, BAFTA ll, CCA). Typo, but it made me laugh.
Marty Supreme (Guild, BAFTA ll, CCA)
One Battle (BAFTA ll, CCA)
Sinners (Guild, BAFTA ll, WON-CCA)
Sentimental Value (Guild-indie, BAFTA ll) Surprised by this one!
Spoilers
Frankenstein (Guild, BAFTA ll)
Sirât (BAFTA ll, WON-EFA)
The Secret Agent
Weapons
Wicked
Animated
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Spoilers
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba
In Your Dreams
Dog of God
Olivia and the Invisible Earthquake
Pašš
Documentary
Alabama Solution
Cover-Up
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Perfect Neighbor
My Undesirable Friends
Spoilers
Cutting through Rocks
Mistress Dispeller
2000 Meters to Andriivka
Come and See Me in the Good Light
Apocalypse in the Tropics
International
It Was Just an Accident
Voice of Hind Rajab
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
Secret Agent
Spoilers
No Other Choice
Left Handed Girl
Belén
All That's Left of You
Sound of Falling
Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle
Sinners
Train Dreams
Spoilers
Hamnet
F1
Die My Love
Bugonia
Sirât
Costume
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Hedda
Sinners
Wicked
Spoilers
Marty Supreme
One Battle
Downton Abbey
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Bugonia
In a perfect world - Pillion? (WON Brit Indie) Sound of Falling (WON EFA)?
Avatar. Say what now?
Makeup
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked
Smashing Machine
One Battle
Spoilers
Marty Supreme
Nuremberg
Alto Knights
Kokuho
Ugly Stepsister
Production Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Wicked for Good. Boy, people are big mad at how bad the second one was.
Spoilers
Fantastic Four
One Battle - I do wonder if momentum will bump this? Shoulda listened to my gut!
Bugonia
Avatar
Sirat
Visual Effects
Avatar
F1
Superman
Lost Bus
Sinners
Spoilers
Frankenstein
Jurassic World Rebirth Ugggghhhhh I can't believe I swapped these two last minute
Tron:Ares
Wicked
Electric State
Score
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Hamnet
One Battle
Sirât
Spoilers
Frankenstein
Wicked
F1
Bugonia
In a perfect world - Ballad of Wallis Island (BAFTA ll, WON-Brit Indie)
Song
Dear Me - Diane Warren. I have learned my lesson.
I Lied to You - Sinners
Golden - Kpop Demon Hunters. I hate this song so much. It is SO SCREECHY. It hurts my ears. Pick This is What it Sounds Like instead.
Train Dreams
The Girl in the Bubble - Wicked
Sweet Dreams of Joy - Viva Verdi
Spoilers
Dream as One - Avatar
No Place like Home - Wicked
Last Time - Sinners
Our Love - Ballad of Wallis Island
Drive - F1
I would love for Trent Reznor to finally be up, but the Academy seems to hold a grudge. I'd be thrilled if Billy Idol performed at the Oscars. And it's still wild to me that Clothed by the Sun wasn't shortlisted.
Sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle
Sinners
Sirat
Spoilers
Mission Impossible
Avatar
Wicked
Superman
Sprinsteen
Short Doc
All the Empty Rooms
The Devil is Busy
perfectly a strangeness
We Were the Scenery
Classtoom 4
Spoilers
Armed Only with a Camera: the life and death of Brent Renaud
On Healing Land, Birds Perch
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
All the Walls Came Down
Heartbeat
Short Live
The Pearl Comb
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Beyond Silence
Amarela
The Singers
Spoilers
Rock, Paper Scissors
The Boy with White Skin
A Friend of Dorothy
Extremist
Pantyhose
Butcher's Stain. Maaan. I took this off the spoilers list last minute.
Jane Austen's Period Drama. I did not have this on.
Short Animated
Cardboard
Girl who Cried Pearls
Snow Bear
Retirement Plan
Night Boots
Spoilers
Éiru
Shyness of Trees
Autokar
Forevergreen
Butterfly
Three Sisters
