2019 Oscar Nom Predictions

Edit: Updated with the noms bolded. This year is WEIRD.

88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers. Boo - I got worse. More later - but quick impressions:

No Once Upon a Time for Editing?! Whoa. That doesn't bode well. But thankfully 1917 didn't get one either, and those two are probably the ones to beat alongside Joker.
Yay Parasite over Joker for Production Design!
Noooooo No Glasgow for Best Song. Sniffles
Yaaaaaaaaaaas The Lighthouse for Cinematography!!!
NO FROZEN FOR BEST ANIMATED 😲

The left-field ones: Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell (yay! Although boo for Hustlers), Edge of Democracy, Corpus Christie, Joker for costumes, Maleficent for Makeup, Toy Story 4 for song, Ad Astra for Mixing (???), 1917 for Sound Editing, Walk Run Cha-Cha.

The categories I got entirely: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (not a hard year...), Best Adapted Screenplay,

This shortened season is messing with my head. I've done this a couple of times now - here's 2018 (I got 91/121 outright, and 113/121 counting spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 if you count spoilers). Let's go for 92 this year?

Best Picture

The most sure:
1. Once Upon a Time
2. Parasite
3. The Irishman
4. JoJo Rabbit
These have the SAG/PGA/DGA noms, which are the most important precursors.

Pretty Sure:
5. 1917 (on the upswing, lots of BAFTA and craft noms, WGA, no SAGs)
6. Ford v. Ferrari (editing nods are good, plus craft noms and three BAFTAs, SAG actor, but not ensemble)
7. Joker (crafts, BAFTAs, WGA, SAG actor, but not ensemble)

Maybe:
8. Little Women (5 BAFTAs, WGA, no SAGs)
9. Marriage Story (3 SAGs, WGA, some indies, 5 BAFTAs)

If 10:
10. Knives Out (PGA)

Spoilers
Bombshell (SAG ensemble)
Dolemite (GG, NBR, Won CCA - comedy)
Uncut Gems (indie, CCA, NBR)
Two Popes (BAFTA brit nom, GG)
Rocketman (GG)
The Farewell (indie, NBR - indie)

I wish A Hidden Life were being discussed. At all.

Best Director

Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
Martin Scorsese - Irishman
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time
Taika Waititi - JoJo
Sam Mendes - 1917

Spoilers:
Todd Phillips - Joker (please no, please no, please no - BAFTA, GG)
Greta Gerwig - Little Women (CCA, NSFC)
Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story (CCA)
The Safdie Brothers - Uncut Gems (CCA)
Lulu Wang - The Farewell (no precursors, but campaigning hard)

I just don't have any faith in a woman getting nominated

Best Editing

Irishman (Thelma! ACE Eddie, BAFTA, CCA))
Ford v. Ferrari (Ace Eddie, BAFTA, CCA)
JoJo Rabbit (Ace Eddie - Comedy, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (Ace Eddie - Comedy, BAFTA)
Parasite (Ace Eddie, CCA)

Spoilers
Joker (ACE Eddie, BAFTA (please no, please no, please no))
1917 - I... can't with an edit nom here. But it just won the CCA. It has no other nominations, but someone was just mentioning they expected an editing nod, which I found so bizarre.
Knives Out (Ace Eddie - comedy)
Marriage Story (Ace Eddie)
The Farewell (Ace Eddie - comedy)
Uncut Gems (CCA)

Best Actress

Renee Zellweger - Judy
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Lupita Nyongo - Us
Charlize Theron - Bombshell

Spoiler:
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Awkwafina - The Farewell
Alfre Woodard - Clemency

Cynthia got the SAG nom, but Saoirse got the BAFTA (so did Jessie Buckley, but Wild Rose wasn't seen as much here.) Mary Kay Place got a few nods, but I can't see an upset here. I'm hoping Lupita stays in, so that the Oscars don't go all white, like the BAFTAs.

Personally, I'm THRILLED Karen Allen is up for an Indie for Colewell, which a beautiful performance. And I can't speak to Portrait of a Lady on Fire because of their STUPID STUPID release strategy.

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio - Once
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker (Imma just pretend this is for You Were Never Really Here)
Taron Egerton - Rocketman
Christian Bale - Ford v. Ferrari
Adam Driver - Marriage Story

Going with the SAG picks here, largely because Christian Bale is demonstrably beloved by the academy (also I really loved this performance, so I'm *hoping* he stays in)

Spoilers
Jonathan Pryce - the Two Popes (BAFTA, GG nods)
Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory (GG, NSFC, NYFC, LAFC nods)
Robert DeNiro - Irishman (CCA nod)
Eddie Murphy - Dolemite (GG, CCA nods)
Adam Sandler (Gotham, Indie, NSFC, NBR nods)

Personally, if 1917 ends up over-performing, I'd love to see George Mackay here - I thought he was great.

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern - Marriage Story (the one to beat)
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Florence Pugh - Little Women
Scarlett Johansson - JoJo
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers

Not guessed: Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell

Spoilers
Margot Robbie - Once Upon (BAFTA)
Nicole Kidman - Bombshell (SAG, but no others)

I think Florence has been so beloved in the role, that she'll upset despite no SAG nod. She got the BAFTA, as well as a few other nods. And she's having a big year (see: Vogue cover this month). I'd LOVE to see Zhao Shuzhen in here for the Farewell.

Best Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time (he's gonna win)
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Tom Hanks - It's a Beautiful Day
Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes (BAFTA, GG)

Spoiler
Jamie Foxx - Just Mercy (SAG, but nothing else)
Song Kang Ho - Parasite (NSFC)
Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse (CCA, beloved)

Personally I'd love to see Jonathan Majors or Matt Damon make it in.

Screenplay - Original

Booksmart (WGA, BAFTA)
Knives Out (WGA, BAFTA)
Marriage Story (WGA, BAFTA, GG)
Once Upon a time (WGA ineligible, BAFTA, won GG, NSFC runner-up)
Parasite (WGA, BAFTA, NSFC winner, GG)

Spoilers
1917 (WGA)
The Farewell
Uncut Gems

Screenplay - Adapted

So - usually the USC scripter is the best predictor in this category, until last year when Leave No Trace was so RUDELY shut out.  But still.
Irishman (WGA, BAFTA, GG, Scripter)
JoJo (WGA, BAFTA, Scripter)
Little Women (WGA, BAFTA, NSFC runner-up, Scripter)
Two Popes (BAFTA, GG, Scripter)
Joker (WGA, BAFTA)

Spoilers
Dark Waters (Scripter)
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (WGA)

Animated

Frozen 2 (10 nods; 8 Annie noms)
How to Train Your Dragon (8 nods, 6 Annie)
Missing Link (6 nods, 8 Annie)
Toy Story 4 (11 nods, 6 Annie)
I Lost My Body (7 overall nods, 6 annie - but the big one was for best indie; CCA, also the Oscars have recently often had an adult animation that makes the cut) (And it got an ACE Eddie nom.)

Spoilers
Abominable (6 nods, 4 Annie))
Klaus (BAFTA; 3 nods, 7 Annie)
Shaun the Sheep: Farmaggedon (BAFTA, but... home town pride)
Weathering With You (4 Annies)

Documentary

American Factory (PGA, DGA, BAFTA, won IDA- directing, ACE Eddie, WOn CinemaEye)
The Cave (PGA, DGA)
Honeyland (PGA, DGA)
Apollo 11 (PGA, BAFTA, Ace Eddie)
For Sama (PGA, BAFTA, won IDA)

Not Guessed: Edge of Democracy

Spoilers
One Child Nation (PGA, DGA)
Advocate (PGA)
The Great Hack (BAFTA)
Maiden (DGA)
Midnight Family (won the IDA for Editing)

I wish Aquarela was getting more love.

Foreign

So... this is bizarrely tricky, because Parasite and Pain & Glory are pretty sure things, but then pretty much all the precursors have been nominating things that didn't make the shortlist, so.... ???
Parasite (GG, BAFTA, Indie, NBR)
Pain & Glory
Les Miserables (CCA, Indie, GG)
Atlantics (CCA, NBR)
Beanpole. Why not. I hear good things, and Russia has a good track record.

Not guessed: Corpus Christie  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Spoilers
Honeyland (unless this gets a bump from the overlap with documentary?)
The Painted Bird
I literally have heard nothing about the three eastern European ones, so I can't imagine them getting in. Whither Monos? Invisible Life? Not to mention all those that didn't qualify for their country noms: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Transit, the Farewell, Ash is Purest White, etc. etc.

Cinematography

1917.


Oh, there will be others? Fine:
Ford v. Ferrari (guild, BAFTA)
Irishman (guild, BAFTA)
Joker (guild, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (guild)

Spoilers
The Lighthouse (guild - spotlight nom, Indie, BAFTA). I'd love for this to get in.
Midsommar (Indie)
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (won NSFC, NYFC, LAFC)/Atlantics (won NSFC) - both Calire Mathon
Little Women (NSFC runner-up)
Parasite (no precursors, but if it over-performs)

Monos and Honey Boy also got spotlight noms from the guild. Monos is beautifully shot.

Costumes

Dolemite is my Name (Guild - P, won CCA)
JoJo (Guild - P, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (Guild - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Little Women (CCA, BAFTA, lots of press)
Rocketman (Guild - P, CCA)

Not guessed: Joker. Obviously wildly overperforming with the most nods

Spoilers
Downton Abbey (guild - P, CCA)
The Irishman (CCA, BAFTA)
Judy (BAFTA, Brit Indie)
Knives Out (Guild - C, sweater!)
Hustlers (Guild - C)

As with production design, the nods tend to go toward the guild period nominations, rather than the contemporary or fantasy noms.

Makeup/Hair

So there are gonna be 5 noms this go around ?!?!?!
Bombshell (Won the guild for contemporary makeup, contemporary hair, and fx - prosthetics done by Kazu Hiro, who won last year, won the CCA, BAFTA nom)
Dolemite (Guild nom - period makeup, period hair, CCA)
Joker - (Won the guild for period makeup, nominated for contemporary hair (?!), CCA nom, BAFTA nom)
Rocketman (3 guild noms, CCA, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (2 guild noms, CCA)

Not guessed: Maleficent

Spoilers
Judy (CCA, BAFTA)
Downton Abbey (Won guild - period hair, nom - period makeup)
1917 (BAFTA)

Little Women and Maleficent are the only others on the shortlist, but neither has any precursors)

Production Design

Once Upon a Time (won CCA, BAFTA, ADG - P)
1917 (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
JoJo Rabbit (ADG - P, BAFTA)
Irishman (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Joker (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)

Spoilers
Ford v. Ferrari (ADG - P)
Parasite (ADG - C, CCA, the best house. But Oscars often want more locales)
Downton Abbey (CCA)
Knives Out (ADG - C)

Generally period noms are worth more than contemporary or fantasy.

Visual Effects

Alita
Avengers Endgame
Gemini Man
Star Wars
1917

Spoilers
Terminator Dark Fate
Irishman
Lion King

Cats made the shortlist, y'all. Don't take the Oscars too seriously.

Score

Joker (Gudnadottir; BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Little Women (Desplat; BAFTA, CCA, GG)
1917 (Thomas Newman; BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman; CCA, GG)
Motherless Brooklyn (Pemberton; GG)

Spoilers
Us (Abels; CCA)
Star Wars (Williams)
JoJo (Giacchino)

I'd really love to see Mica Levi's Monos. I also LOVE that The Dø made the shortlist for I Lost My Body, and it would be thrilling for an animated film to get in (they won the LAFC). Nicholas Britell is (deservedly!) having a moment, but I think The King is too derided to score here.

Song

Glasgow - Wild Rose (Won CCA (it was a tie). I'm rooting for this one - it was the best part of the film, plus: Mary Steenburgen! Jessie Buckley!)
(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again - Rocketman (Won GG & CCA; Elton John)
Into the Unknown - Frozen (GG, CCA nom; Let it Go team - plus, the chance for Adele Dazeem to sing again!)
Spirit - Lion King (GG, CCA nom; Beyonce)
Stand Up - Harriet (GG, CCA nom; Cynthia Erivo)

Not Guessed: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away - Toy Story 4

Spoilers
Speechless - Aladdin. It's Menkin with Pasek & Paul, soo..... also CCA nom
I'm Standing with You - Breakthrough (CCA nom, Diane Warren)
A Glass of Soju - Parasite (Bong!)
Daily Battles - Motherless Brooklyn (Wynton Marsalis)
Never Too Late - Lion King (Elton John)

Sound - Mixing

Ford v. Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
Irishman

Not guessed: Ad Astra

The above are the CAS guid noms

Spoilers
1917
Star Wars
I hesitate to even say it, but mixing often skews toward musicals so... we could theoretically see a Cats nom. But I'm guessing any tech category will be tarred by the rest of the disaster

Sound - Editing

Joker - 3 guild noms
Ford v. Ferrari - 2 guild noms
Once Upon a Time - 3 guild noms
Avengers Endgame - 2 guild noms
Rocketman - 2 guild noms

Not Guessed: 1917

Spoilers
JoJo Rabbit - 2 guild noms
Star wars - guild nom: foley
Irishman - guild nom: dialogue

Short Doc

In the Absence (Cinemaeye, IDA nom, CCA, DocNYC)
Ghosts of Sugarland (Cinemaeye, Doc NYC)
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you're a girl) (IDA winner, DocNYC, BAFTA)
St. Louis Superman (Cinemaeye, IDA shortlist, DocNYC)
Stay Close (Cinemaeye, DocNYC)

Not Guessed: Walk Run Cha-Cha (literally the only one without a single precursor)

Spoilers
The Nightcrawlers (IDA nom, DocNYC)
Life Overtakes Me (Cinemaeye)
After Maria (IDA nom)
Fire in Paradise (DocNYC)

Short Live

Brotherhood
The Christmas Gift (EFA winner)
Sometimes I think About Dying
Saria
Refugee

Spoilers
Little Hands
Miller & Son
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors' Window
A Sister

??? Basically there are never any precursors here, as opposed to docs.

Short Animated

Hair Love
He Can't Live Without Cosmos
Kitbull
Sister
Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days (Annie nom)

Spoilers:
Hors Piste (this was widely available and could make it, but... I disliked it and the first We Can't Live Without Cosmos was so good, I'm hoping the second follows) [Ed: awww. No Cosmos.]
Dcera
Memorable
Mind my Mind
Physics of Sorrow

52 Films by Women - 2019

Well, I didn't really try to do this this year, and as I've seen about 100 fewer films, I've seen 2 fewer than last year (40 in total). But in the interest of clearing out my watchlist on Letterboxd:

Hail Satan? - Penny Lane - 4.5 stars. This is hilarious. It's so good.
The Farewell - Lulu Wang - 4.5 stars. So lovely. I'm rooting for Oscars.
The Souvenir - Joanna Hogg - 4.5 stars. I'm not done with the year yet, but I'm sure this will be in my top 5. Stunningly beautiful
Anthropocene: The Human Epoch - Jennifer Baichwal (co-dir) - 4.5 stars. Jaw-dropping cinematography from around the world
High Life - Claire Denis - 4 stars. I think I'm still processing this.
The Nightingale - Jennifer Kent. Ditto
Booksmart - Olivia Wilde - 4 stars. Very cute - Kaitlyn Dever and Billie Lourd are so great.
The Seer and the Unseen - Sara Dosa - 4 stars. This was lovely - and I loved the questions it raises about faith and belief.
Captain Marvel - Anna Boden (Co-dir) - 3.5 stars. Garbage needle drop! Top Gun! Ben Mendelssohn! Goose!
Late Night - Nisha Ganatra - 3.5 stars. I liked this way more than I was expecting to. Emma Thompson is a treasure.
Core of the World - Natalya Meshchaninova - 3.5 stars
Hustlers - Lorene Scafaria - 3.5 stars. Constance Wu doesn't totally work for me, but there's a lot to enjoy here.
Little Women - Greta Gerwig - 3 stars. This was disappointing to me because I LOVE Lady Bird. But Florence Pugh and Eliza Scanlen aside, the Gillian Armstrong version is so much better.
The Little Comrade - Moonika Siimets - 3 stars. I forgot this was this year! An interesting companion piece to JoJo Rabbit.
When I'm a Moth - Magdalena Zyzak - 2.5 stars. The lead actress is good, the Japanese actors are good, and there are some beautiful shots, but this is too meandering to really work.

Shorts:
Ritual in Transfigured Time - Maya Deren - 5 stars
Lost World - Kalyanee Mam - 5 stars (I quite liked this and it's online!)
Cold Pudding Settles Love - Urszula Palusińska - 5 stars (I fucking love this animated short. It's SO WEIRD)
Enforcement Hours - Paloma Martinez - 4.5 stars. Incredibly well edited film about an SF immigrant hotline. I thought this was a big step up from Crisanto Street (which I also enjoyed)
Meshes of the Afternoon - Maya Deren - 4 stars
The Very Eye of Night - Maya Deren - 4 stars
Brotherhood - Meryam Joobeur - 4 stars. On the shortlist for the Oscars
Fuck You - Anette Sidor - 4 stars
Now and There, Here and Then - Sun Park - 4 stars
Traces with Elikem - Airana Gerstein - 4 stars
Confidence Game - Kathleen Quillian - 4 stars
At Land - Maya Deren - 3.5 stars
Night and Day - Emma Matthews (co-dir) - 3.5 stars (obviously I only saw part of the 24 hours...)
Don't You Forget About Me - Lydia Ricci - 3.5 stars
Bless You! - Paulina Ziółkowska - 3.5 stars
I'm OK - Elizabeth Hobbs - 3.5 stars
Fast Horse - Alexandra Lazarowich - 3.5 stars
Life Overtakes Me - Kristine Samuelson (co-dir) - 3.5 stars. On the Oscar short doc shortlist.
Edgecombe - Crystal Kayiza - 3.5 stars
Mixed Signals - Courtney Stephens - 3.5 stars
That Woman - Sandra Davis - 3.5 stars
Mitya's Love - Svetlana Filippova - 3 stars
The Labyrinth - Laura Huertas Millán - 3 stars
The Slows - Nicole Perlman - 2.5 stars
Pelourinho, They Don’t Really Care About Us - Akosua Adoma Owusu - 2.5 stars

2019 mixes

Past mixes: 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018

This year I listened to such eclectic stuff that these are all a bit of a mess. Much like the year, really.

Mix 1
1. Norman Fucking Rockwell - Lana Del Rey. I love this album a lot


2. The Captain and The Hourglass - Laura Marling


3. Seventeen - Sharon Van Etten. She's so brilliant


4. Mr. Blessington's Imperialist Plot (live) - Astronautalis


5. Thug Tho - Daveed Diggs & Rafael Casal. As promised in last year's intro


6. bury a friend - Billie Eilish. Love this album, too


7. Toast (remix) - Boyfriend ft. Matty Noyes. Boyfriend was the discovery of Outside Lands for me this year. I love her so much.


8. Never Say Die - CHVRCHES


9. Electric Heights - Phildel. I put a different version of this song on 2017's mixes, but the album version came out this year on Wave Your Flags


10. Bartender - Lana Del Rey


11. Challengers - The New Pornographers


12. Thank You - Led Zeppelin. I got around to watching Sharp Objects


13. Reversed Mirror - White Denim


14. Rock and Roll - Velvet Underground


15. Bring it to Mama - Boyfriend & Galactic


16. bad guy - Billie Eilish


17. Red Bull & Hennessy - Jenny Lewis


18. Little of Your Love - HAIM


19. Portland, Oregon - Loretta Lynn & Jack White

2018 JWD Award Winners

Top 40 here. 

Best Film - I'm not cutting this off. This was such a fucking amazing year in film:
The Rider
I am Not a Witch
Leave No Trace
Beast
Suspiria
You Were Never Really Here
First Reformed
If Beale Street Could Talk
Burning
The Favourite
Support the Girls
Vox Lux
Free Solo
Roma
Madeline's Madeline
Blindspotting
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
The Guardians (Les Gardiennes)
Blackkklansman

Best Popcorn Flick:
Spiderman: Into the Spider-verse
Mission Impossible: Fallout
Revenge
Annihilation
Paddington 2
In a Quiet Place
Hereditary
Black Panther
Bad Times at the El Royale
Ant Man and the Wasp
Ravenous

Film I'm Most Looking Forward To That I Missed:
Wildlife
Disobedience
The Tale
Thoroughbreds
Mandy
Lean On Pete
On Chesil Beach
Hale County This Morning This Evening
McQueen
Let the Sunshine In
Monrovia, IN
Shoplifters
We the Animals

Best Debut Film:
Sorry to Bother You
Eighth Grade
Beast
A Star is Born
Hereditary
Blindspotting
I Am Not A Witch

Notable Omissions: Wildlife, Searching, Thoroughbreds, Blockers, mid90s, Cam, Skate Kitchen

Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Jessie Buckley, Beast
Charlize Theron, Tully
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Helena Howard, Madeline's Madeline
Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Zoey Deutch, Set It Up

Notable Omissions: Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me, Carey Mulligan - Wildlife, Rosamund Pike - A Private War, Keira Knightley - Colette, Rachel Weisz - Disobedience, Nicole Kidman - Destroyer

Best Actor
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Brady Jandreau, The Rider
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Daveed Diggs, Blindspotting
Lakeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You
Johnny Flynn, Beast

Notable Omissions: Charlie Plummer - Lean On Pete, Rupert Everett - The Happy Prince, Jake Gyllenhaal - Wildlife

Best Supporting Actress
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Elizabeth Debicki, Widows
Natalie Portman, Vox Lux
Tilda Swinton, Suspiria
Cynthia Erivo, Bad Times at the El Royale and Widows
Miranda July, Madeline's Madeline
Shayna McHayle, Support the Girls
Haley Lu Richardson, Support the Girls
Zoe Kazan, Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Tessa Thompson, Annihilation and Sorry to Bother You
Iris Bry, The Guardians

Notable Omissions: Rachel McAdams - Disobedience, Michelle Yeoh - Crazy Rich Asians, Nicole Kidman - Boy Erased,

Best Supporting Actor
Paul Bettany, Journey's End
Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Rafael Casal, Blindspotting
Steven Yuen, Burning
Adam Driver, Blackkklansman
Steve Buscemi, Death of Stalin
Alex Wolff, Hereditary
Josh Hamilton, Eighth Grade
Evan Peters, American Animals
Hugh Grant, Paddington 2
Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street, Widows, and Spiderman
Harry Melling, Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Notable Omissions: Sam Rockwell - Vice, Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me, Steve Buscemi - Lean On Pete, Alessandro Nivola - Disobedience, Dominic West - Colette, Raul Castillo - We the Animals, Ed Oxenbould - Wildlife

Best Ensemble
The Favourite
Suspiria
Black Panther
Widows
If Beale Street
Blackkklansman
Madeline's Madeline
Support the Girls
Vox Lux
Annihilation
The Guardians
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Hereditary
Bad Times at the El Royale

Notable Omissions: Crazy Rich Asians

Best Documentary
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
Won't You Be My Neighbor
Three Identical Strangers
Matangi/Maya/MIA
Purge This Land
Shirkers
The Other Side of Everything

Notable Omissions: Hale County This Morning This Evening (IT'S ON MY TIVO I'M GOING TO GET TO IT THIS WEEK), Of Fathers and Sons, Bisbee '17, Dark Money, On Her Shoulders, Silence of Others, The Distant Barking of Dogs, RBG, Crime + Punishment, They Shall Not Grow Old, Into the Okavango, Anthropocene (may be coming out this year), McQueen, Amazing Grace, Did You Wonder Who Fired the Gun?

Best Animated Film:
Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

Best Foreign Film:
I Am Not a Witch
Roma
Burning
The Guardians (Les Gardiennes)
Revenge
Sweet Country
The Favourite
The Sower
Ravenous
Suleiman Mountain

Notable Omissions: Capernaum, Shoplifters, Cold War, Birds of Passage (coming out this year?), Sunset (coming out this year?), Rafiki, The Wild Pear Tree, Happy as Lazarro, Border, Zama, Jeannette, Never Look Away

Best Director: 
Spike Lee, Blackkklansman
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Lynne Ramsay, You Were Never Really Here
Chloe Zhao, The Rider
Rungano Nyoni, I Am Not A Witch
Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Lee Chang-Dong, Burning
Josephine Decker, Madeline's Madeline
Carlos Lopez Estrada, Blindspotting
Michael Pearce, Beast

Notable Omissions: Tamara Jenkins - Private Life, Karyn Kusama - Destroyer, Marielle Heller - Can You Ever Forgive Me, Jennifer Fox - The Tale, Andrew Haigh - Lean On Pete, Nicole Holofcener - The Land of Steady Habits, Claire Denis, Let the Sunshine In, Lucrecia Martel - Zama, Ashley McKenzie - Werewolf, Nadine Labiki - Capernaum, Sally Potter - The Party, Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War

Best Screenplay - Original:
First Reformed
The Favourite
Sorry to Bother You
Eighth Grade
Beast
Support the Girls
The Rider
Madeline's Madeline
You Were Never Really Here

Also - WHY is Buster Scruggs competing in adapted, if the stories were written by the Coens themselves. I mean yes, two (the Gal Who Got Rattled and All Gold Canyon) are based off existing stories, but that's 1/3rd of the film HMMM??? (No I'm NOT over Leave No Trace being shutout of the Oscars, despite winning the USC Scripter, when the past 8 winners have gone on to win the Oscar, why do you ask?)

Notable Omissions: Cold War, Destroyer, Private Life, Let the Sunshine In, The Tale

Best Screenplay - Adapted:
Leave No Trace
Death of Stalin
If Beale Street Could Talk
Blackkklansman
Burning

Notable Omissions: Can You Ever Forgive Me, Disobedience, Thoroughbreds

Best Editing:
The Favourite
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
You Were Never Really Here
Madeline's Madeline
Roma
Blackkklansman
Matangi/Maya/MIA
Mission Impossible Fallout

Notable Omissions: Vice, The Tale

Best Cinematography:
The Favourite
The Rider
Roma
You Were Never Really Here
Madeline's Madeline
Suspiria
Burning
Leave No Trace
First Reformed
Jupiter's Moon

Notable Omissions: Lean On Pete, Wildlife, Mandy, We the Animals, Never Look Away, First Man, Cold War

Best Costumes:
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Queen of Scots
A Simple Favor
Blackkklansman
Oceans 8
A Star is Born
Widows
Paddington 2
Sorry to Bother You
Vox Lux

Notable Omissions: Colette, Peterloo, Fantastic Beasts, Crazy Rich Asians, Mamma Mia, Nutcracker, Wrinkle in Time

Best Makeup:
Suspiria
Blackkklansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
Widows
Vox Lux

Of note: the team did an excellent job on Margot Robbie's makeup in Mary Queen of Scots, but James McArdle's hair is SO HILARIOUSLY BAD, they cancel each other out

Notable Omissions: Vice, Border, Colette, Stan & Ollie, Crazy Rich Asians,

Best Production Design:
The Favourite
Roma
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Buster Scruggs
A Quiet Place
Isle of Dogs

Notable Omissions: First Man, Fantastic Beasts, Crazy Rich Asians

Best Visual Effects:
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Paddington 2
A Quiet Place

Notable Omissions: Christopher Robin, Ready Player One, First Man, Mortal Engines, the Nutcracker, Welcome to Marwen (the film looks terrible, but the documentary it is based on is fantastic.)

Best Score:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
Blackkklansman
Isle of Dogs
The Green Fog
Annihilation
The Rider
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
You Were Never Really Here
Paddington 2
Suspiria
Hereditary
Mary Queen of Scots

Notable Omissions: First Man, Vice, Crazy Rich Asians, the Old Man & the Gun, Mandy

Best Song/Musical Moment:
Shallow, Star is Born
The Dance, Annihilation
The Dance, Madeline's Madeline
The Dance, The Favourite
The Dance (Générique - Miles Davis), Burning
All the Stars, Black Panther
Surly Joe, Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Suspirium, Suspiria
OYAHYTT, Sorry to Bother You
The Big Unknown, Widows
Ashes, Deadpool 2
The Rain on the Roof, Paddington 2
A Conversation, Mary Poppins
The Cover is Not the Book, Mary Poppins

Act III, Vox Lux
Too Late to Turn Back Now, Blackkklansman
Volk, Suspiria (narrowly beating out the audition)
I've Never Been To Me, You Were Never Really Here
Way Up, Spiderman (I know, I know. But it's great for running)
Miles' slang, Blindspotting
What's Up, Miseducation of Cameron Post
This Old Heart of Mine, Bad Times at the El Royale (Here's a playlist of Cynthia. The scene with You Can't Hurry Love is also amazing.)

Notable Omissions: Quincy, Dumplin, Boy Erased, Hate U Give, Beautiful Boy, Ralph Breaks the Internet, A Private War, The Strangers: Prey at Night, Let the Sunshine In, Climax (although I think that's being released properly this year)

Best Sound - both Editing & Mixing
Black Panther
You Were Never Really Here
A Star is Born
A Quiet Place
The Favourite
Mission Impossible Fallout
Suspiria
Vox Lux

Normally I'd put in Mary Poppins for being a musical, but I can't tell if the sound mix was off, or if it were the sound system in the Castro.

Notable Omissions: First Man, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Prayer Before Dawn

Best Short - Live Action/Doc:
Zion
Shadow Animals
It's older, but I only just saw it, so: Vertigo Sea
49 Mile Scenic Drive
Graven Image
Made in Iowa
Crisanto Street
Palenque
Skywards
.TV
Atomkraftwerk Zwentendorf

Best Short - Animated:
Weekends
Age of Sail
Pepe le Morse
I hadn't seen the 2017 roundup when I did last year's awards, so I'm including Garden Party here because I love it so much. It should have won the Oscar. (I mean, World of Tomorrow 2 shoulda been up, but...)
Citipati
I Am Here
73 Questions
Seine's Breath
ハネムーン Hanemun Honeymoon
Framed
The Servant
When Comes the Rain

Best poster:
McQueen
Shoplifters
Zama
Hale County This Morning This Evening
Leave No Trace (both variants)
The Favourite (both variants)
American Animals
Blackkklansman
Madeline's Madeline
Mandy
Burning
The Land of Steady Habits
Bisbee '17
Her Smell
Tully
The Meg
Under the Silver Lake
A Simple Favor
Hereditary
Red Sparrow
The Old Man & The Gun
The Sisters Brothers
Suspiria
First Reformed
Shirkers
You Were Never Really Here
Let the Corpses Tan
Isle of Dogs
Spiderman
Deadpool 2

Best animal:
The dog, Widows (the same dog was in Game Night and Insatiable, too)
The psychic dog Oracle, Isle of Dogs
The turtle, Madeline's Madeline
The crow, Support the Girls
The bunny, Leave No Trace (narrowly beating out the bees)
The bear, Annihilation
The owl, Buster Scruggs
The white horse, The Rider
The horses, Sorry to Bother You
The seagulls, Ant-Man & the Wasp
Horatio, The Favourite

Notable omissions: the diamond-encrusted tortoise in Colette

Best Trailer:
Vice (It almost convinced me to go see it!)
Under the Silver Lake (well, it was *going* to be a 2018 film when this was released)
Madeline's Madeline
The Favourite
Bad Times at the El Royale
Sorry to Bother You
Hereditary
A Quiet Place teaser
Won't You Be My Neighbor
Halloween (trick r' treating trailer)
Overlord
Mission Impossible Fallout
First Man IMAX teaser (Of course, then I didn't really feel like I needed to see it (I can't find the exact clip, but this is closest.)
Suspiria teaser
Tully
If Beale Street
A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody teaser  (Seriously; golden fleece award right here)

Also - I had never seen this one before, but this is amazing. Actual comments from men about Revenge trailer.

Best Quote
I am Steve Rogers - Avengers, Infinity War
Without question - Black Panther
I believe God gives each of us a purpose. To the horse, it's to run across the prairie. For a cowboy, it's to ride. - The Rider
Oh no he died - Game Night
It wasn’t destroying. It was changing everything. It was making something new. - Annihilation
I'm Batman - Deadpool 2
Ain’t this a bitch. If I would have known this was a Klan meeting, I wouldn’t have taken this motherfucking gig. Goddamn. - Blackkklansman
Sometimes a lady likes to have some fun. - The Favourite
Hey. I did it. - Miseducation of Cameron Post
I'd like to make a toast. To my family. For everything you have done for me... I forgive you. - Beast
If you’ve trusted love this far, don’t panic now. Trust it all the way. - If Beale Street Could Talk
Can God forgive us for what we’ve done to this world? - First Reformed
I mean, your 20s are great. They are, but then your 30s come around the corner like a garbage truck at 5:00 a.m. - Tully
I can’t remember who’s alive and who isn’t. - Death of Stalin
I'll see y'all there. And we can sing together and shake our heads over all the meanness in the used to be. - Buster Scruggs
If you beautiful perversions don’t shut the fuck up, I will turn you all into glue! - Sorry to Bother You
Wherever I go, the wind follows. And the wind smells like rain. - Spiderman
If we're kind and polite, the world will be right. - Paddington 2
Joe, wake up. It's a beautiful day. - You Were Never Really Here

Unforgettable Moment (Arr. There be spoilers here:)
The furniture store, Roma (Much as I describe Boston as a collection of towns, rather than a city, I think Roma is more a series of vignettes than a complete film. It's a short story collection. And while I love the lead actress, I have hard time with it being his recollections and from his perspective. But it is beautifully made, and several sequences could be in this category: the birth, the ocean, the fire.)
Dad by the fire, Eighth Grade (This year's CMBYN dad speech!)
The HALO jump, Mission Impossible Fallout
The car ride, Widows
The goodbye, Leave No Trace
Daniel's monologue, If Beale Street
The brothel, You Were Never Really Here
Waiting in the Car, Minding the Gap
The finale in The Gal Who Got Rattled, Buster Scruggs
Harry Belafonte/Birth of a Nation - Blackkklansman
Josie's transformation, Annihilation
Peter in the car, Hereditary
X-Force, Deadpool 2
The bloody chase, Revenge
The early morning ride, The Rider

Notable Omissions: Shakespeare in Vice, Joke in Mandy, the ending in Wildlife, Elizabeth Debicki in The Tale, Jack Jack in Incredibles 2

2018 Oscar Follow-up

Updates in bold. The only three I didn't predict even as spoilers were score, visual effects and live action short. But in terms of proper predictions - I did really badly! 15/24. With spoilers 21/24 (which shows how many of these were two-horse races). Spider-Man, Free Solo, and the female-directed shorts were nice bright spots. And I'm sort of okay with my worst predictions in years coinciding with the worst Oscars in years. There's a nice symmetry in that. 

Best Picture:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite - Should Win
Green Book - Spoiler, Did Win
Roma - Will Win
A Star Is Born
Vice

Another tricky year (bless Cheryl for pushing diversity in the voting body, so these become harder to predict!). Roma fans won't put Green Book for #2 (but will they split Black Panther and Blackkkansman?) and Green Book fans won't put Roma as #2. Roma also has an easy out in winning director/foreign, for those who look to spread the accolades around. Roma also missed out on editing, which is usually a good indicator for Best Picture,  but the two competing there (Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody (Also: what. I know it's just because of the Live Aid sequence, but good god.)) are not likely Best Picture contenders.

[Update: GOOD GOD.]

Usually it's the PGA winner, which is Green Book. So the question becomes: can it survive the backlash? Is the Academy still enough old white men for it to win? SAG-AFTRA is sometimes a good bellwether because it's such a massive, populist group, and Green Book didn't land an ensemble nod there (Black Panther won). But the "AFTRA" portion doesn't overlap in large part with the voting body of the Academy. I could see Favourite stans listing Roma as 2nd. (I think the Favourite is too quirky to pull out a win, but it did enjoy broad support with 10 nominations.) And Roma did win the BAFTA, which has a fair bit of overlap in voting members.

In the end, I think Roma edges it, with Green Book and Black Panther as spoilers.

[Update: THE ACADEMY IS STILL OLD AND WHITE ENOUGH]

Here's where things will likely land for total awards [Ed: updated]:
Black Panther - Costumes, Production Design
BlacKkKlansman - Adapted Screenplay
Bohemian Rhapsody - Actor, Sound Editing & Mixing, Editing
The Favourite - Original Screenplay, Production Design, Actress (!!)
Green Book - Supporting actor, Original Screenplay, Picture
Roma - Picture, Director, Foreign, Cinematography
A Star Is Born - Song
Vice - Editing, Makeup

As always, the most interesting films get the screenplay awards.

Snub: Anything directed by a woman.

Update: UGHHHHHHHHHH FOREVER

Lead Actor:
Christian Bale, “Vice” - Spoiler
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” - Will Win, Did Win
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

I mean, the award will entirely be for surviving the nightmare of this entire situation. I have next to no opinion on a should win. I like Christian Bale's work a lot, but he has won before. Willem Dafoe is great and it would be nice to see him recognized, especially so soon after The Florida Project. Rami has basically swept: SAG/BAFTA/GG-D, Bale won the comedy GG.

Snub: Ethan Hawke (won the NSFC/Gotham, hopefully about to win the Indie Spirit in the next hour.) Ben Foster for being incredible in Leave No Trace (Runner Up at LAFC/NSFC).

[Update: How bad was that speech??]

Lead Actress:
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife” - Will Win
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite” - Should Win, Spoiler, Did Win!!!
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Olivia Colman has been totally unable to campaign (she's off filming the Queen.) Glenn Close will win for body of work, and that's fine by me. She's a treasure and Olivia Colman will hopefully have several more opportunities. (Glenn won the SAG/CCA, Olivia the BAFTA/NSFC/LAFC/Brit Indie, they split the GGs)

Snub: Regina Hall - Support the Girls (won the NYFC, runner up for NSFC, nominated for a Gotham, up for an Indie - really the entire Indie slate is great - Helena Howard! Toni Collette!)

[Update: I cried all the way through her speech. I'm so sorry for Glenn, but I'm so, so thrilled the Favourite wasn't shut out, which I thought it would be halfway through the show.]

Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” - Will Win, Did Win
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman” - Should Win
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” - Spoiler
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

I mean, the award will entirely be for surviving the nightmare of this entire situation. *sigh* He's swept everything and stayed classy while doing it. Yay for a hometown hero; here's hoping he gets to work with fewer disaster people in the future. (Sam Elliott and Richard E. Grant are also delightful people; a win for either of those would tickle me to no end.)

Snub: Steven Yuen - Burning. Won the NSFC/LAFC.

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” - Will Win, Did Win
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite” - Should Win, Spoiler

Regina has won the NSFC, NBR, LAFC/NYFC/CCA and GG; Rachel the BAFTA (hometown advantage; Regina wasn't nominated). I think The Favourite has been seen by many more folks, which would give Rachel the edge, but: Regina wasn't nominated for the SAGs and Rachel was, which looks like an advantage to Rachel, but she lost to Emily Blunt. They are both deserving - both are phenomenal performances. I think Rachel being a past winner gives Regina the edge (plus, other than Score, these are the two places where Beale Street can be recognized, and I think Barry Jenkins has a lot of goodwill from the Academy body.)

Snub: Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place. Won the SAG. Thomasin McKenzie for being the most deserving.

Director:
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman” - Spoiler
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite” - Should Win
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma” - Will Win, Did Win
Adam McKay, “Vice”

Easy. He's swept everything: the DGA, GG, BAFTA, NSFC, NYFC, CCA, Runner up at LAFC

Snub: Debra Granik: Won the LAFC, up for an Indie. Lynne Ramsay - nominated for a Brit Indie, Indie. Chloe Zhao - Runner up at the NSFC, nominated for an Indie last year (still not sure how that worked). Tamara Jenkins - nominated for an Indie. Marielle Heller. Karyn Kusama. Rungano Nyoni. Jennifer Fox. Josephine Decker. Nicole Holofcener. Nadine Labiki. Sally Potter. Claire Denis. Lucrecia Martel. THERE ARE SO MANY FUCKING OPTIONS.

Animated Feature:
“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!

Yay! Easy and well deserved. Won the PGA, BAFTA, GG, ACE Eddie, Annie, NYFC, CCA, LAFC, and VES. Isle of Dogs won the ADG and Incredibles won the NBR.

https://twitter.com/rsdream12/status/1096912408113831936

Animated Short:
“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi - Will Win, Did Win
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez - Should Win, Spoiler

I've loved Weekends since seeing it in April and it won the Annie, which is the only precursor with any overlap. But Bao is more likely, since it's an actual Pixar film, so the most people saw it (even though it's not nearly as good!)

Adapted Screenplay:
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty - Spoiler
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

This is likely to be close. Can You Ever forgive me got the WGA, Blackkklansman got the BAFTA. I think Spike Lee edges it so that they can finally give Spike Lee an Oscar.

Snub: Leave No Trace, winner of the USC Scripter, which has predicted the Oscar winner the last 8 years running.

Original Screenplay:
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara - Will Win
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader - Should Win
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly - Spoiler, Did Win
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay

I love both The Favourite and First Reformed. I think the Favourite edges out because it got so many more nominations, so I think more Academy folks like it. But! The hardcore fans of First Reformed will be all over its single nomination, so I'd like to think it is close. First Reformed won the CCA/NYFCC/NBR/Gotham and nominated for an Indie, and the Favourite won the BAFTA, was Runner up at the LAFC/NSFC, and nominated for a GG/CCA/Gotham. First Reformed was NOT nominated for a WGA and the Favourite was ineligible. If Green Book sweeps things I'm going to be deeply upset.

[Update: I am deeply upset.]

Cinematography:
“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal - Spoiler
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

Tricky! Cold War won the guild. But Roma has swept everything else and I think will be recognized by the broader voting body. (Roma has won the BAFTA/NSFC/NYFC/CCA/LAFC. Favourite won the BritIndie.

Snub: Madeline's Madeline - up for an Indie and radically innovative.

Best Documentary Feature:
“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen - Spoiler

Pretty easy! Free Solo is easily the most popular and won the BAFTA, 3 Critics Awards and the ACE Eddie, as well as the audience/production/and Cinematography awards at CinemaEye. (My should is with the caveat that I still need to see Hale County!) RBG is beloved, so there's a possible spoiler.

Snub: Won't You Be My Neighbor - winner of the PGA.

[Update: And Alex and Sanni are still together!]

Best Documentary Short Subject:
“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman - Will win
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi - Spoiler, Did Win!

Hmm - prognosticators seem split on this. I've seen good arguments for both A Night at the Garden (speaking to current racism) and End Game (the type of social awareness doc the Academy loves plus - yay Bay Area!). I think the Academy is still too male to vote for Period. End of Sentence, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong. End Game was on the DocNY shortlist and Night at the Garden was up at CinemaEye. Black Sheep and Lifeboat were up at IDA.

Snub: Zion - the winner of the IDA and on the DocNY Shortlist. My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes - on the DocNY short list and winner of the CinemaEye.

[Update: Yay! What a lovely surprise!]

Best Live Action Short Film:
“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte - Spoiler
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley - Will Win
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv - Did Win

Everything I've seen puts this between Fauve and Marguerite. I literally couldn't watch Fauve, but it was well done, and I haven't seen Maurgerite. If academy voters are as squeamish as I, then I think Marguerite takes it.

Snub: Wale? The only shortlist contender with a prior nomination (BAFTA).

Best Foreign Language Film:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland) - Spoiler
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico) - Will Win, Did Win
Shoplifters (Japan)

Ten times the acclaim and conversations (and money campaigning) as any other others. Only adding in Cold War as a spoiler since it did so surprisingly well in the nominations.

Snub: Burning (South Korea). Runner up at the NSFC, nominated for an Indie/CCA, top 5 for NBR, tied with Shoplifters at the LAFC.

Film Editing:
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman - Spoiler, Did Win
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis - Should Win
“Vice,” Hank Corwin - Will Win

As I said up above; this comes down to Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody. Vice won the BAFTA, Bohemian Rhapsody the ACE Eddie (drama; Favourite took Comedy). Despite the many, many examples of the utter ineptitude of the editing in Bohemian Rhapsody (and the fact that the *only* other thing it was up for was a BAFTA), the narrative there is really that the editor salvaged *something* from Bryan Singer's wreckage and it went on to be immensely popular. So another award for succeeding despite difficult circumstances. And that the final sequence, which sticks in everyone's head, is really well done. Vice is flashy, but I wonder if losing the comedy ACE to the Favourite shows it isn't strong enough.

Snub: Probably Roma, which got 5 nominations.

[Update: UGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH]

Sound Editing:
“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst - Will Win, Did Win
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl - Spoiler
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

A Quiet Place could spoil - it won foley at the Guild and is obviously *so* linked with sound. Bohemian Rhapsody won dialogue/ADR at the guild, and the BAFTA.  If Quiet Place had received a Best Picture nomination, I'd say this would shift. (First Man is a possible spoiler in tech categories like sound and VES if people start to feel too sorry for it being overlooked, but... it was overlooked.)

Sound Mixing:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody - Will Win, Did Win
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Easy. It's a musical, it won the CAS for mixing, it won the guild for musical, it won the BAFTA.

Snub (for both): You Were Never Really Here. The sound design is so incredible. And it won the BritIndie.

Production Design:
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler - Spoiler, Should Win, Did Win
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton - Will Win
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Like Costume - this comes down to The Favourite and Black Panther. Both won at the guild for period/fantasy respectively. Black Panther won the CCA and LAFC, the Favourite won the BAFTA/BritIndie, but hometown advantage. Black Panther has the popularity (plus it created everything from scratch), but the Oscars often go for lush period pieces in this category. (That said, I've swapped these two a bunch.)

Snub: Crazy Rich Asians - guild winner for contemporary.

[Update: Yay! What a great win! What a beautiful speech! I'm always thrilled when a should win upsets. And to have two black women win in non-acting categories! (The second and third EVER.)]

Original Score:
“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard - Spoiler
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson - Did Win
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell - Will Win, Should Win
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

This is between Blackkklansman and If Beale Street. Both have been nominated a lot and are great and vital to their films' tones. Beale St won the LAFC. First Man won most of the precursors, so it's a harder prediction. I think Blackkklansman may have the edge for the best picture nod. But Beale Street is really associated with that score, and Moonlight's score had a lot of goodwill. I've swapped these two like 10 times.

Snub: You Were Never Really Here (again, like sound). Won the BritIndie.

[Update: How surprising! There was a lot of love for the score, but I didn't think it would pull through. Three very deserving scores in contention.]

Original Song:
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA - Should Win
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice - Will Win, Did Win
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Heh.

Snub: Suspirium.

Makeup and Hair:
Border
Mary Queen of Scots - Spoiler.
Vice - Will Win, Did Win

Border may be the more remarkable achievement, but Vice is more well known. It won the CCA as well as Period and FX at the guild. (Mary took the hair award at the guild, but is better known for its makeup)

Snub: the Favourite won the BAFTA.

Costume Design:
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter - Will Win, Should Win, Did Win!
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell - Spoiler
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne

Sandy Powell is the best. She has just been at the top for so, so long. And I adore the Favourite costumes (as well as the Mary Poppins' animated ones). But Black Panther has had a year talking up the tribal origins of the costumes and I don't think the Academy will pass by a chance to have the first black Costume Designer win. They split the guild - Favourite and Black Panther: Period/Fantasy. Black Panther won the CCA, Favourite won the BAFTA/BritIndie.

Snub: Crazy Rich Asians - won the Contemporary Guild Award.

Visual Effects:
“Avengers: Infinity War” - Will Win
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man” - Did Win!
“Ready Player One” - Spoiler
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”

Infinity War won the VES. Black Panther won the CCA and BAFTA, which I think means voters are going to go Marvel here, even if Thanos was fairly ridiculous.

Snub: Black Panther

[Update: I'm completely tickled that Infinity War didn't win anything!]

2018 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture: 
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite - Should Win
Green Book - Spoiler
Roma - Will Win
A Star Is Born
Vice

Another tricky year (bless Cheryl for pushing diversity in the voting body, so these become harder to predict!). Roma fans won't put Green Book for #2 (but will they split Black Panther and Blackkkansman?) and Green Book fans won't put Roma as #2. Roma also has an easy out in winning director/foreign, for those who look to spread the accolades around. Roma also missed out on editing, which is usually a good indicator for Best Picture,  but the two competing there (Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody (Also: what. I know it's just because of the Live Aid sequence, but good god.)) are not likely Best Picture contenders.

Usually it's the PGA winner, which is Green Book. So the question becomes: can it survive the backlash? Is the Academy still enough old white men for it to win? SAG-AFTRA is sometimes a good bellwether because it's such a massive, populist group, and Green Book didn't land an ensemble nod there (Black Panther won). But the "AFTRA" portion doesn't overlap in large part with the voting body of the Academy. I could see Favourite stans listing Roma as 2nd. (I think the Favourite is too quirky to pull out a win, but it did enjoy broad support with 10 nominations.) And Roma did win the BAFTA, which has a fair bit of overlap in voting members.

In the end, I think Roma edges it, with Green Book and Black Panther as spoilers.

Here's where things will likely land for total awards:
Black Panther - Costumes
BlacKkKlansman - Adapted Screenplay
Bohemian Rhapsody - Actor, Sound Editing & Mixing
The Favourite - Original Screenplay, Production Design
Green Book - Supporting actor
Roma - Picture, Director, Foreign, Cinematography
A Star Is Born - Song
Vice - Editing, Makeup

As always, the most interesting films get the screenplay awards.

Snub: Anything directed by a woman.

Lead Actor:
Christian Bale, “Vice” - Spoiler
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” - Will Win
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

I mean, the award will entirely be for surviving the nightmare of this entire situation. I have next to no opinion on a should win. I like Christian Bale's work a lot, but he has won before. Willem Dafoe is great and it would be nice to see him recognized, especially so soon after The Florida Project. Rami has basically swept: SAG/BAFTA/GG-D, Bale won the comedy GG.

Snub: Ethan Hawke (won the NSFC/Gotham, hopefully about to win the Indie Spirit in the next hour.) Ben Foster for being incredible in Leave No Trace (Runner Up at LAFC/NSFC).

Lead Actress:
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife” - Will Win
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite” - Should Win, Spoiler
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Olivia Colman has been totally unable to campaign (she's off filming the Queen.) Glenn Close will win for body of work, and that's fine by me. She's a treasure and Olivia Colman will hopefully have several more opportunities. (Glenn won the SAG/CCA, Olivia the BAFTA/NSFC/LAFC/Brit Indie, they split the GGs)

Snub: Regina Hall - Support the Girls (won the NYFC, runner up for NSFC, nominated for a Gotham, up for an Indie - really the entire Indie slate is great - Helena Howard! Toni Collette!)

Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” - Will Win
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman” - Should Win
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” - Spoiler
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

I mean, the award will entirely be for surviving the nightmare of this entire situation. *sigh* He's swept everything and stayed classy while doing it. Yay for a hometown hero; here's hoping he gets to work with fewer disaster people in the future. (Sam Elliott and Richard E. Grant are also delightful people; a win for either of those would tickle me to no end.)

Snub: Steven Yuen - Burning. Won the NSFC/LAFC.

Supporting Actress: 
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” - Will Win
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite” - Should Win, Spoiler

Regina has won the NSFC, NBR, LAFC/NYFC/CCA and GG; Rachel the BAFTA (hometown advantage; Regina wasn't nominated). I think The Favourite has been seen by many more folks, which would give Rachel the edge, but: Regina wasn't nominated for the SAGs and Rachel was, which looks like an advantage to Rachel, but she lost to Emily Blunt. They are both deserving - both are phenomenal performances. I think Rachel being a past winner gives Regina the edge (plus, other than Score, these are the two places where Beale Street can be recognized, and I think Barry Jenkins has a lot of goodwill from the Academy body.)

Snub: Emily Blunt - A Quiet Place. Won the SAG. Thomasin McKenzie for being the most deserving.

Director:
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman” - Spoiler
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite” - Should Win
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma” - Will Win
Adam McKay, “Vice”

Easy. He's swept everything: the DGA, GG, BAFTA, NSFC, NYFC, CCA, Runner up at LAFC

Snub: Debra Granik: Won the LAFC, up for an Indie. Lynne Ramsay - nominated for a Brit Indie, Indie. Chloe Zhao - Runner up at the NSFC, nominated for an Indie last year (still not sure how that worked). Tamara Jenkins - nominated for an Indie. Marielle Heller. Karyn Kusama. Rungano Nyoni. Jennifer Fox. Josephine Decker. Nicole Holofcener. Nadine Labiki. Sally Potter. Claire Denis. Lucrecia Martel. THERE ARE SO MANY FUCKING OPTIONS.

Animated Feature:
“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman - Will Win, Should Win.

Yay! Easy and well deserved. Won the PGA, BAFTA, GG, ACE Eddie, Annie, NYFC, CCA, LAFC, and VES. Isle of Dogs won the ADG and Incredibles won the NBR.

https://twitter.com/rsdream12/status/1096912408113831936

Animated Short: 
“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi - Will Win
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez - Should Win, Spoiler

I've loved Weekends since seeing it in April and it won the Annie, which is the only precursor with any overlap. But Bao is more likely, since it's an actual Pixar film, so the most people saw it (even though it's not nearly as good!)

Adapted Screenplay: 
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee - Will Win, Should Win
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty - Spoiler
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

This is likely to be close. Can You Ever forgive me got the WGA, Blackkklansman got the BAFTA. I think Spike Lee edges it so that they can finally give Spike Lee an Oscar.

Snub: Leave No Trace, winner of the USC Scripter, which has predicted the Oscar winner the last 8 years running.

Original Screenplay: 
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara - Will Win
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader - Should Win
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly - Spoiler
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay

I love both The Favourite and First Reformed. I think the Favourite edges out because it got so many more nominations, so I think more Academy folks like it. But! The hardcore fans of First Reformed will be all over its single nomination, so I'd like to think it is close. First Reformed won the CCA/NYFCC/NBR/Gotham and nominated for an Indie, and the Favourite won the BAFTA, was Runner up at the LAFC/NSFC, and nominated for a GG/CCA/Gotham. First Reformed was NOT nominated for a WGA and the Favourite was ineligible. If Green Book sweeps things I'm going to be deeply upset.

Cinematography:
“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal - Spoiler
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón - Will Win, Should Win
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

Tricky! Cold War won the guild. But Roma has swept everything else and I think will be recognized by the broader voting body. (Roma has won the BAFTA/NSFC/NYFC/CCA/LAFC. Favourite won the BritIndie.

Snub: Madeline's Madeline - up for an Indie and radically innovative.

Best Documentary Feature:
“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi - Will Win, Should Win
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen - Spoiler

Pretty easy! Free Solo is easily the most popular and won the BAFTA, 3 Critics Awards and the ACE Eddie, as well as the audience/production/and Cinematography awards at CinemaEye. (My should is with the caveat that I still need to see Hale County!) RBG is beloved, so there's a possible spoiler.

Snub: Won't You Be My Neighbor - winner of the PGA.

Best Documentary Short Subject: 
“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman - Will win
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi - Spoiler

Hmm - prognosticators seem split on this. I've seen good arguments for both A Night at the Garden (speaking to current racism) and End Game (the type of social awareness doc the Academy loves plus - yay Bay Area!). I think the Academy is still too male to vote for Period. End of Sentence, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong. End Game was on the DocNY shortlist and Night at the Garden was up at CinemaEye. Black Sheep and Lifeboat were up at IDA.

Snub: Zion - the winner of the IDA and on the DocNY Shortlist. My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes - on the DocNY short list and winner of the CinemaEye.

Best Live Action Short Film: 
“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte - Spoiler
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley - Will Win
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv

Everything I've seen puts this between Fauve and Marguerite. I literally couldn't watch Fauve, but it was well done, and I haven't seen Maurgerite. If academy voters are as squeamish as I, then I think Marguerite takes it.

Snub: Wale? The only shortlist contender with a prior nomination (BAFTA).

Best Foreign Language Film:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland) - Spoiler
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico) - Will Win
Shoplifters (Japan)

Ten times the acclaim and conversations (and money campaigning) as any other others. Only adding in Cold War as a spoiler since it did so surprisingly well in the nominations.

Snub: Burning (South Korea). Runner up at the NSFC, nominated for an Indie/CCA, top 5 for NBR, tied with Shoplifters at the LAFC.

Film Editing: 
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman - Spoiler
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis - Should Win
“Vice,” Hank Corwin - Will Win

As I said up above; this comes down to Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody. Vice won the BAFTA, Bohemian Rhapsody the ACE Eddie (drama; Favourite took Comedy). Despite the many, many examples of the utter ineptitude of the editing in Bohemian Rhapsody (and the fact that the *only* other thing it was up for was a BAFTA), the narrative there is really that the editor salvaged *something* from Bryan Singer's wreckage and it went on to be immensely popular. So another award for succeeding despite difficult circumstances. And that the final sequence, which sticks in everyone's head, is really well done. Vice is flashy, but I wonder if losing the comedy ACE to the Favourite shows it isn't strong enough.

Snub: Probably Roma, which got 5 nominations.

Sound Editing: 
“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst - Will Win
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl - Spoiler
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

A Quiet Place could spoil - it won foley at the Guild and is obviously *so* linked with sound. Bohemian Rhapsody won dialogue/ADR at the guild, and the BAFTA.  If Quiet Place had received a Best Picture nomination, I'd say this would shift. (First Man is a possible spoiler in tech categories like sound and VES if people start to feel too sorry for it being overlooked, but... it was overlooked.)

Sound Mixing:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody - Will Win
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Easy. It's a musical, it won the CAS for mixing, it won the guild for musical, it won the BAFTA.

Snub (for both): You Were Never Really Here. The sound design is so incredible. And it won the BritIndie.

Production Design: 
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler - Spoiler, Should Win
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton - Will Win
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Like Costume - this comes down to The Favourite and Black Panther. Both won at the guild for period/fantasy respectively. Black Panther won the CCA and LAFC, the Favourite won the BAFTA/BritIndie, but hometown advantage. Black Panther has the popularity (plus it created everything from scratch), but the Oscars often go for lush period pieces in this category. (That said, I've swapped these two a bunch.)

Snub: Crazy Rich Asians - guild winner for contemporary.

Original Score: 
“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard - Spoiler
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell - Will Win, Should Win
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

This is between Blackkklansman and If Beale Street. Both have been nominated a lot and are great and vital to their films' tones. Beale St won the LAFC. First Man won most of the precursors, so it's a harder prediction. I think Blackkklansman may have the edge for the best picture nod. But Beale Street is really associated with that score, and Moonlight's score had a lot of goodwill. I've swapped these two like 10 times.

Snub: You Were Never Really Here (again, like sound). Won the BritIndie.

Original Song:
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA - Should Win
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice - Will Win
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Heh.

Snub: Suspirium.

Makeup and Hair: 
Border
Mary Queen of Scots - Spoiler.
Vice - Will Win

Border may be the more remarkable achievement, but Vice is more well known. It won the CCA as well as Period and FX at the guild. (Mary took the hair award at the guild, but is better known for its makeup)

Snub: the Favourite won the BAFTA.

Costume Design:
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter - Will Win, Should Win
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell - Spoiler
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne

Sandy Powell is the best. She has just been at the top for so, so long. And I adore the Favourite costumes (as well as the Mary Poppins' animated ones). But Black Panther has had a year talking up the tribal origins of the costumes and I don't think the Academy will pass by a chance to have the first black Costume Designer win. They split the guild - Favourite and Black Panther: Period/Fantasy. Black Panther won the CCA, Favourite won the BAFTA/BritIndie.

Snub: Crazy Rich Asians - won the Contemporary Guild Award.

Visual Effects:
“Avengers: Infinity War” - Will Win
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One” - Spoiler
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”

Infinity War won the VES. Black Panther won the CCA and BAFTA, which I think means voters are going to go Marvel here, even if Thanos was fairly ridiculous.

Snub: Black Panther