Oscar Predictions

I never got to finish my Oscar spreadsheets this year. So I feel uninformed. I don't even know what won at the CAS guild awards. I'm a failure. But here are my picks anyway:

Best picture
"12 Years a Slave"
"The Wolf of Wall Street"
"Captain Phillips"
"Her"
"American Hustle"
"Gravity"
"Dallas Buyers Club"
"Nebraska"
"Philomena"

Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Will Win: Gravity and 12 Years tied at the PGAs, which is crazy. American Hustle got the SAG ensemble, but I think it's probably out. I think 12 Years will win out. Maybe.

Best director
Steve McQueen -- "12 Years a Slave"
David O. Russell -- "American Hustle"
Alfonso Cuaron -- "Gravity"
Alexander Payne -- "Nebraska"
Martin Scorsese -- "The Wolf of Wall Street"

Should Win: I love Steve McQueen so much. But Gravity was such an achievement, I think Alfonso Cuaron.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Best actor
Bruce Dern -- "Nebraska"
Chiwetel Ejiofor -- "12 Years a Slave"
Matthew McConaughey -- "Dallas Buyers Club"
Leonardo DiCaprio -- "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Christian Bale -- "American Hustle"

Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor or Leonardo DiCaprio (Haven't seen McConaughey)
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey. He's on such a hot streak, and the Oscars will probably want to reward leaving romcoms for indies. And True Detective has been on everyone's lips during voting.

Best actress
Amy Adams -- "American Hustle"
Cate Blanchett -- "Blue Jasmine"
Judi Dench -- "Philomena"
Sandra Bullock -- "Gravity"
Meryl Streep -- "August: Osage County"

Should Win: Haven't seen Blue Jasmine, but I've heard that. Otherwise Amy Adams.
Will Win: Cate Blanchett. Although I think Amy Adams actually has a bit of a shot.

Best supporting actor
Barkhad Abdi -- "Captain Phillips"
Bradley Cooper -- "American Hustle"
Jonah Hill -- "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Jared Leto -- "Dallas Buyers Club"
Michael Fassbender -- "12 Years a Slave"

Should Win: I haven't seen Leto, but he's annoyed me to no end this season. So Michael Fassbender.
Will Win: Jared Leto.

Best supporting actress
Jennifer Lawrence -- "American Hustle"
Lupita Nyong'o -- "12 Years a Slave"
June Squibb -- "Nebraska"
Julia Roberts -- "August: Osage County"
Sally Hawkins -- "Blue Jasmine"

Should Win: Lupita Nyongo
Will Win: Lupita Nyongo (This category is pretty much a dead heat, though with JLaw)

Best original screenplay
"American Hustle" -- David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer
"Blue Jasmine" -- Woody Allen
"Her" -- Spike Jonze
"Nebraska" -- Bob Nelson
"Dallas Buyers Club" -- Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack

Should Win: Her
Will Win: I think American Hustle's swell of support might land it here. But it REALLY SHOULDN'T. The performances were so much better than the script. But if Academy voters want to give David O. Russell something, they may vote judiciously. Her is my 2nd choice. I both really hope it wins, and will kick myself vigorously for going with my cynical instincts if it does.

Best adapted screenplay
"12 Years a Slave" -- John Ridley
"Before Midnight" -- Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater
"The Wolf of Wall Street" -- Terence Winter
"Captain Phillips" -- Billy Ray
"Philomena" -- Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave (although apparently some writers really dislike John Ridley from the strike, in which case Philomena.)

Best animated feature
"The Wind Rises"
"Frozen"
"Despicable Me 2"
"Ernest & Celestine"
"The Croods"

Should Win: ? Probably The Wind Rises
Will Win: Experts are saying Frozen, but The Wind Rises has won EVERYTHING in the lead up. But... I don't think Miyazaki as beloved by the Academy as the general population. And voters may have been more likely to see Frozen. I'm going Frozen. Against my better judgement.

Best foreign feature
"The Hunt" (Denmark)
"The Broken Circle Breakdown" (Belgium)
"The Great Beauty" (Italy)
"Omar" (Palestinian territories)
"The Missing Picture" (Cambodia)

Should Win: The Great Beauty/The Hunt/Broken Circle Breakdown
Will Win: The Great Beauty (The Hunt as spoiler)

Best music (original song)
"Frozen": "Let it Go" -- Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez
"Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom": "Ordinary Love" -- U2, Paul Hewson
"Her": "The Moon Song" -- Karen O, Spike Jonze
"Despicable Me 2": "Happy" -- Pharrell Williams
"Alone Yet Not Alone": "Alone Yet Not Alone" -- Bruce Broughton, Dennis Spiegel

Should Win: Let It Go
Will Win: Let It Go

Best music (original score)
"Gravity" -- Steven Price
"Philomena" -- Alexandre Desplat
"The Book Thief" -- John Williams
"Saving Mr. Banks" -- Thomas Newman
"Her" -- William Butler and Owen Pallett

Should Win: Philomena
Will Win: Gravity. It was over-emphasized, but that meant it stood out to voter's ears.

Best cinematography
"Gravity" -- Emmanuel Lubezki
"Inside Llewyn Davis" -- Bruno Delbonnel
"Nebraska" -- Phedon Papamichael
"Prisoners" -- Roger Deakins
"The Grandmaster" -- Phillippe Le Sourd

Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
Will Win: Gravity

Best costume design
"The Great Gatsby" -- Catherine Martin
"12 Years a Slave" -- Patricia Norris
"The Grandmaster" -- William Chang Suk Ping
"American Hustle" -- Michael Wilkinson
"The Invisible Woman" -- Michael O'Connor

Should Win: I'm pretty torn between Gatsby and Hustle. I'll give Gatsby the edge for this dress, which I covet beyond all measure.
Will Win: Gatsby.

Best documentary feature
"The Act of Killing"
"20 Feet From Stardom"
"The Square"
"Cutie and the Boxer"
"Dirty Wars"

Should Win: The Act of Killing
Will Win: 20 Feet from Stardom. This film has been CAMPAIGNING. The Act of Killing has won most of the precursors, but I think it is just too disturbing for the Academy.

Best film editing
"Gravity" -- Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger
"12 Years a Slave"-- Joe Walker
"Captain Phillips" -- Christopher Rouse
"American Hustle" -- Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
"Dallas Buyers Club" -- John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

Should Win: Rush. But probably Gravity
Will Win: Gravity. Captain Phillips has its only real shot as runner-up here.

Best makeup and hairstyling
"The Lone Ranger" -- Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny
"Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa" -- Stephen Prouty
"Dallas Buyers Club" -- Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

Should Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club

Best production design
"12 Years a Slave" -- Adam Stockhausen and Alice Baker
"The Great Gatsby" -- Catherine Martin and Beverley Dunn
"American Hustle" -- Judy Becker and Heather Loeffler
"Gravity" -- Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard
"Her" -- K.K. Barrett and Gene Serdena

Should Win: Gatsby
Will Win: Gravity. Gatsby, Gravity, and Her won the guild awards (Period, Fantasy, Contemporary) and the Oscars tend to like period films best, so Gatsby could get it. But I think Gravity may sweep the tech categories.

Best visual effects
"Gravity"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
"Star Trek Into Darkness"
"Iron Man 3"
"The Lone Ranger"

Should Win: Gravity
Will Win: Gravity

Best sound mixing
"Gravity"
"Captain Phillips"
"Lone Survivor"
"Inside Llewyn Davis"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"

Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
Will Win: Gravity

Best sound editing
"Gravity"
"All Is Lost"
"Captain Phillips"
"Lone Survivor"
"The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"

Should Win: Gravity/All is Lost
Will Win: Gravity

Best short film, live action
"Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)"
"Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)"
"Helium"
"Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)"
"The Voorman Problem"

Should Win: Avant Que De Tout Perdre
Will Win: The Voorman Problem

Best short film, animated
"Feral"
"Get a Horse!"
"Mr. Hublot"
"Possessions"
"Room on the Broom"

Should Win: Possessions
Will Win: Get a Horse

Best documentary short
"CaveDigger"
"Facing Fear"
"Karama Has No Walls"
"The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life"
"Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall"

Should Win: ?
Will Win: The Lady in Number 6

The complete list of feature films nominated (bolded I've seen):
The Act of Killing – 1 nomination
All Is Lost – 1 nomination
American Hustle – 10 nominations
August: Osage County – 2 nominations
Before Midnight – 1 nomination
Blue Jasmine – 3 nominations
The Book Thief – 1 nomination
The Broken Circle Breakdown – 1 nomination
Captain Phillips – 6 nominations
The Croods – 1 nomination
Cutie And The Boxer – 1 nomination
Dallas Buyers Club – 6 nominations
Despicable Me 2 – 2 nominations
Dirty Wars – 1 nomination
Ernest & Celestine – 1 nomination
Frozen – 2 nominations
The Grandmaster – 2 nominations
Gravity – 10 nominations
The Great Beauty – 1 nomination
The Great Gatsby – 2 nominations
Her – 5 nominations
The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug – 3 nominations
The Hunt – 1 nomination
Inside Llewyn Davis – 2 nominations
The Invisible Woman – 1 nomination
Iron Man 3 – 1 nomination
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa - 1 nomination
The Lone Ranger – 2 nominations
Lone Survivor – 2 nominations
Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom – 1 nomination
The Missing Picture – 1 nomination
Nebraska – 6 nominations
Omar – 1 nomination
Philomena – 4 nominations
Prisoners – 1 nomination
Saving Mr. Banks – 1 nomination
The Square – 1 nomination
Star Trek Into Darkness – 1 nomination
12 Years A Slave – 9 nominations
20 Feet from Stardom – 1 nomination
The Wind Rises – 1 nomination
The Wolf Of Wall Street – 5 nominations