A lot of these are close two horse races, which should make for an exciting broadcast. Of note; I always hope to do better than 22/24 for a personal best. Last year I got 20, so okay (and the best I've done since they've opened up the voting bloc, and these have become much more unpredictable). The year before I got 15, which was the worst I've done in ages and was so, SO happy about it (Moonlight). 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20 (although I wrote 21 somewhere - I wonder if I swapped a category at the last minute...).
It's funny looking back at some older predictions, because in 2011, best director/picture had only differed 12 times since 1948, and since then it's differed 5 times.
(My other normal year-end posts are delayed, because I'm waiting to see Portrait of a Lady on Fire before picking my top films & other awards)
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite - spoiler, should win
Snub: A Hidden Life, possibly Portrait of a Lady on Fire
I am desperately hoping Parasite could win. And winning the SAG ensemble is such a tempting bellwether! But I don't think it overlaps as often as the PGA (unlike the individual SAG wins). (Fun Oscar fact - a win would make 1917 the first ever best picture winner without an acting or editing nod!) But as 1917 took the GG-Drama and PGA, it will likely win. The last time a winner of those didn't was Brokeback Mountain. And while I'm willing to believe Joker=Crash, Parasite is the potential upset here, and folks may still think editing and foreign are enough. Then again, with the diversity push, 20% of the Academy is now foreign.... maybe? Please?
All that said, I won't be mad if and when 1917 wins. It left me a little cold, but my friend Alex has a great piece on why she loves it. I will say that I love its use of Wayfaring Stranger, which is a song I love a lot. Here's my favorite version.
I hope to GOD Joker only takes actor and score. Here's where I think it'll all shake out:
Ford v Ferrari - I'm thinking sound mixing, but I'm hoping for both sound and editing upsets
The Irishman - shut out, unless it pulls an upset in vfx
Jojo Rabbit - adapted screenplay
Joker - actor, score
Little Women - costume, could pull an upset in adapted screenplay
Marriage Story - supporting actress
1917 - picture, cinematography, sound editing, director, vfx
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - supporting actor, production design
Parasite - editing, foreign, original screenplay. Hoping for a picture upset
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917 - will win
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite - spoiler, should win
Snub: Joanna Hogg - The Souvenir
Sam Mendes won the DGA, GG, and BAFTA.
Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker - will win
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Snub: Tom Burke - The Souvenir
I.. have only seen Once, and I thought Leo did a terrific job (and was largely my favorite part in a movie I didn't think worked.) But the acting nods are pretty close to wrapped up. I'm just going to pretend Joaquin is winning this for You Were Never Really Here. He's won the SAG, BAFTA, CCA, and GG.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy - will win
Snub: Honor Swinton Byrne - The Souvenir, Aisling Franciosi - The Nightingale, Karen Allen - Colewell (up for an indie!)
Boy - just no opinions on the nominees this year! Saoirse was okay, but Little Women didn't work for me. No one in hollywood is going to vote for Megyn Kelly. I'm thrilled Cynthia Erivo got a nod - I love her a lot. Renee has won the SAG, GG, BAFTA, NBR, CCA, BritIndie, and is up for an indie.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story - will win
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit - spoiler
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Snub: Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell, Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers, Julianne Nicholson - Monos
If there's going to be an upset, folks think it'll happen here. But Laura has won the SAG, BAFTA, NSFC, GG, NYFC, and CCA. ScarJo hasn't won anything in this category, but I guess some people think Marriage Story isn't popular enough, and ScarJo being a double nominee might pull it out here. I will say this might be the first time I've found her tolerable in a film.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman - should win
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win
Snub: Jonathan Majors - Last Black Man in San Francisco, Andrew Scott - 1917 (I know it's like 2 seconds - but he does SO MUCH in that time!)
Definitely Brad Pitt. Which, I'd be okay with a lifetime achievement, but it puts a really bad taste in my mouth that he's winning for playing a wife-killer that's played for jokes, and his speeches have been... distasteful in parts. *sigh* And Joe Pesci came out of retirement for that lovely, restrained turn. But Brad's won the SAG, BAFTA, NSFC, GG, NBR and CCA.
Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - will win
Joker
Little Women - spoiler
The Two Popes
Snub: ?? Hustlers? I can barely think of any other adapted screenplays.
JoJo is the safe bet here, but I wonder if enough folks are upset about Greta's director 'snub' for sympathy votes to carry the day here. And she won the USC Scripter, which was the PERFECT predictor until last year, with LEAVE NO TRACE (YES I'M STILL ANGRY) and given that that was also a woman... JoJo has momentum with the WGA and BAFTA.
Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - spoiler
Parasite - will win, should win
Snub: The Farewell, Booksmart
Parasite has also won the WGA and BAFTA, as well as the NSFC. Once won the CCA and GG, and Quentin is very associated with this prize...
Costume Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - spoiler, should win
Joker
Little Women - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Snub: Knives Out. Contemporary guild winner. Sweater.
This one is a little tricky! Jojo won the guild award for period costume, Little Women won the BAFTA. I feel like people see period dresses and vote for that. But JoJo's costumes really stuck out, and I am but a simple person and really loved Sam Rockwell's cape...
Documentary Feature
American Factory - will win
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama - spoiler
Honeyland
Snub: Aquarela. My fave, made the shortlist. C'est la vie.
Tricky again! Because the PGA went to Apollo 11. I think American Factory, because: topical, Obama support, won the DGA, Gotha, LAFC, and Cinemaeye. For Sama got the BAFTA and BritIndie. For Sama won best pic at the IDA while American Factory took best director. But I think the Brits have paid more attention to Syria than Americans (although! the White Helmets won short a couple of years ago. Last Men in Aleppo did not win 2 years ago...)
International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea) - will win, should win
Snub: Probably Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Ash is Purest White
I'M OKAY WITH IT WINNING BOTH.
Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body - probably should win?
Klaus - spoiler
Missing Link
Toy Story 4 - will win
I think Toy Story 4 gets it (it got the PGA, CCA, MPSE and ACE Eddie), but it's still weird Frozen 2 isn't in here. Klaus (?) won the BAFTA and the Annie, as well as all 7 Annie categories it was nominated in. Missing Link won the GG and VES.
Production Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win
Parasite- spoiler, should win
Snub: The Souvenir, Knives Out
This is a close one. Parasite won the guild for contemporary, while Once won the guild for Period. Period usually predicts, plus Once won the CCA and LAFC. 1917 won the BAFTA (and while I thought it was quite impressive, I also didn't realize how many battlefield elements were VFX. But watching them go into the German trench - I just thought: this is going to be up for production design.) I'd love to see folks go contemporary for how wonderful the Parasite sets were.
Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite - will win
Parasite won the ACE Eddie, and it's beautifully constructed and paced - and really, it totally deserves to win. I am glad Ford v Ferrari won the BAFTA, because I think it's really well done, and I'm sad it could well be shut out. JoJo won the ACE for comedy.
Cinematography
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917 - will win, should win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Snub: A Hidden Life, Monos
ILU Roger Deakins. (I am THRILLED the Lighthouse is in here. It's GORGEOUS. Here's a great interview with the cinematographer about how they achieved that.)
Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman - spoiler
The Lion King
1917 - will win
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Snub: Cats. Obviously.
God I hope it's not Lion King. It won the VES for photoreal, and indiewire thinks it's going to win. The Irishman won the VES for supporting. 1917 won the BAFTA and the NYT thinks it will win. They're all quite different, and while I think Star Wars will be counted out for more of the same, I don't know if the machine learning they used for digital characters on Endgame was totally new to that film? Or if most folks will think - more marvel explosions? I suppose this category may depend a bit on whether 1917 picked up enough momentum to start pulling in other categories. (As I mentioned above in production design, 1917 might triumph here for how much of the background details were digitally added, presuming folks are well-aware of that fact.) Or will actors be super excited by the possibilities The Irishman gives them?
(I liked what one anonymous director had to say about Lion King; "Lion King is the best-looking, yet most depressing movie I’ve ever seen. It’s amazingly made but entirely 100% creatively bankrupt.")
Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari - will win, should win
Joker
1917 - spoiler
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win
Joker
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
I know the sound categories usually go together, but I'm splitting the difference. Thus ruining my hopes at a perfect 24, but letting me put Ford in for something (and with good reason, too). 1917 won the BAFTA for both and NYT thinks it'll win. indiewire thinks Ford will win for both. Ford won the guild for mixing, and the guild for editing for foley. 1917 won the guild for editing for dialogue. War films are popular picks for oscar voters in sound categories, but... I'm biased. I love Ford. Listen to this.
Original Score
Joker - will win
Little Women - spoiler, should win
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Snub: Monos
Joker has won the BAFTA, CCA, and GG.
Original Song
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman - will win
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen II - spoiler
“Stand Up,” Harriet
Snub: Glasgow - Wild Rose
Rocketman won the GG and CCA. Folks like Elton, and the movie was well liked.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell - will win
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
Snub: ?? Rocketman? Us?
Unless folks COMPLETELY won't vote for anything Fox news. I mean - those prosthetics are crazy. Bombshell won the guild for contemporary, fx, and hair, CCA, and the BAFTA. Joker won the guild for period, because - clown? (fun fact: it was up for contemporary hair styling, so....)
Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence - spoiler
Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone if You’re a Girl - will win
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk, Run, Cha cha
Snub: Ghosts of Sugarland, on the shortlist, nominated for a cinemaeye, and on the DocNYC shortlist
Learning won the IDA and BAFTA, so I think it will take it, but In the Absence is well regarded and the only one of the nominees up for a CCA.
Animated Short
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love - will win
Kitbull - should win
Memorable
Sister
So many beautifully crafted, sad films. I think people will go for something more heartwarming (as did I).
Snub: well - my favorite was a bizarre avant garde polish film called Cold Pudding Settles Love (trailer only), so....
Maestro, by the team that did the fantastic Garden Party, is also a real winner:
Live Action Short
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window - will win
Saria
A Sister - spoiler, should win
I really loved both The Neighbors' Window and A Sister. Brotherhood was well done, as well. I think both Window and Brotherhood have a shot (Brotherhood is very much in the Oscars' wheelhouse, while tony nominee Maria Dizzia is beloved). That said, I'm hoping A Sister resonates for its subject matter. Plus how well done it is.
It's funny looking back at some older predictions, because in 2011, best director/picture had only differed 12 times since 1948, and since then it's differed 5 times.
(My other normal year-end posts are delayed, because I'm waiting to see Portrait of a Lady on Fire before picking my top films & other awards)
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite - spoiler, should win
Snub: A Hidden Life, possibly Portrait of a Lady on Fire
I am desperately hoping Parasite could win. And winning the SAG ensemble is such a tempting bellwether! But I don't think it overlaps as often as the PGA (unlike the individual SAG wins). (Fun Oscar fact - a win would make 1917 the first ever best picture winner without an acting or editing nod!) But as 1917 took the GG-Drama and PGA, it will likely win. The last time a winner of those didn't was Brokeback Mountain. And while I'm willing to believe Joker=Crash, Parasite is the potential upset here, and folks may still think editing and foreign are enough. Then again, with the diversity push, 20% of the Academy is now foreign.... maybe? Please?
All that said, I won't be mad if and when 1917 wins. It left me a little cold, but my friend Alex has a great piece on why she loves it. I will say that I love its use of Wayfaring Stranger, which is a song I love a lot. Here's my favorite version.
I hope to GOD Joker only takes actor and score. Here's where I think it'll all shake out:
Ford v Ferrari - I'm thinking sound mixing, but I'm hoping for both sound and editing upsets
The Irishman - shut out, unless it pulls an upset in vfx
Jojo Rabbit - adapted screenplay
Joker - actor, score
Little Women - costume, could pull an upset in adapted screenplay
Marriage Story - supporting actress
1917 - picture, cinematography, sound editing, director, vfx
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - supporting actor, production design
Parasite - editing, foreign, original screenplay. Hoping for a picture upset
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917 - will win
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite - spoiler, should win
Snub: Joanna Hogg - The Souvenir
Sam Mendes won the DGA, GG, and BAFTA.
Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker - will win
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Snub: Tom Burke - The Souvenir
I.. have only seen Once, and I thought Leo did a terrific job (and was largely my favorite part in a movie I didn't think worked.) But the acting nods are pretty close to wrapped up. I'm just going to pretend Joaquin is winning this for You Were Never Really Here. He's won the SAG, BAFTA, CCA, and GG.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy - will win
Snub: Honor Swinton Byrne - The Souvenir, Aisling Franciosi - The Nightingale, Karen Allen - Colewell (up for an indie!)
Boy - just no opinions on the nominees this year! Saoirse was okay, but Little Women didn't work for me. No one in hollywood is going to vote for Megyn Kelly. I'm thrilled Cynthia Erivo got a nod - I love her a lot. Renee has won the SAG, GG, BAFTA, NBR, CCA, BritIndie, and is up for an indie.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story - will win
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit - spoiler
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Snub: Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell, Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers, Julianne Nicholson - Monos
If there's going to be an upset, folks think it'll happen here. But Laura has won the SAG, BAFTA, NSFC, GG, NYFC, and CCA. ScarJo hasn't won anything in this category, but I guess some people think Marriage Story isn't popular enough, and ScarJo being a double nominee might pull it out here. I will say this might be the first time I've found her tolerable in a film.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman - should win
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win
Snub: Jonathan Majors - Last Black Man in San Francisco, Andrew Scott - 1917 (I know it's like 2 seconds - but he does SO MUCH in that time!)
Definitely Brad Pitt. Which, I'd be okay with a lifetime achievement, but it puts a really bad taste in my mouth that he's winning for playing a wife-killer that's played for jokes, and his speeches have been... distasteful in parts. *sigh* And Joe Pesci came out of retirement for that lovely, restrained turn. But Brad's won the SAG, BAFTA, NSFC, GG, NBR and CCA.
Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - will win
Joker
Little Women - spoiler
The Two Popes
Snub: ?? Hustlers? I can barely think of any other adapted screenplays.
JoJo is the safe bet here, but I wonder if enough folks are upset about Greta's director 'snub' for sympathy votes to carry the day here. And she won the USC Scripter, which was the PERFECT predictor until last year, with LEAVE NO TRACE (YES I'M STILL ANGRY) and given that that was also a woman... JoJo has momentum with the WGA and BAFTA.
Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - spoiler
Parasite - will win, should win
Snub: The Farewell, Booksmart
Parasite has also won the WGA and BAFTA, as well as the NSFC. Once won the CCA and GG, and Quentin is very associated with this prize...
Costume Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - spoiler, should win
Joker
Little Women - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Snub: Knives Out. Contemporary guild winner. Sweater.
This one is a little tricky! Jojo won the guild award for period costume, Little Women won the BAFTA. I feel like people see period dresses and vote for that. But JoJo's costumes really stuck out, and I am but a simple person and really loved Sam Rockwell's cape...
Documentary Feature
American Factory - will win
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama - spoiler
Honeyland
Snub: Aquarela. My fave, made the shortlist. C'est la vie.
Tricky again! Because the PGA went to Apollo 11. I think American Factory, because: topical, Obama support, won the DGA, Gotha, LAFC, and Cinemaeye. For Sama got the BAFTA and BritIndie. For Sama won best pic at the IDA while American Factory took best director. But I think the Brits have paid more attention to Syria than Americans (although! the White Helmets won short a couple of years ago. Last Men in Aleppo did not win 2 years ago...)
International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea) - will win, should win
Snub: Probably Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Ash is Purest White
I'M OKAY WITH IT WINNING BOTH.
Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body - probably should win?
Klaus - spoiler
Missing Link
Toy Story 4 - will win
I think Toy Story 4 gets it (it got the PGA, CCA, MPSE and ACE Eddie), but it's still weird Frozen 2 isn't in here. Klaus (?) won the BAFTA and the Annie, as well as all 7 Annie categories it was nominated in. Missing Link won the GG and VES.
Production Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win
Parasite- spoiler, should win
Snub: The Souvenir, Knives Out
This is a close one. Parasite won the guild for contemporary, while Once won the guild for Period. Period usually predicts, plus Once won the CCA and LAFC. 1917 won the BAFTA (and while I thought it was quite impressive, I also didn't realize how many battlefield elements were VFX. But watching them go into the German trench - I just thought: this is going to be up for production design.) I'd love to see folks go contemporary for how wonderful the Parasite sets were.
Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite - will win
Parasite won the ACE Eddie, and it's beautifully constructed and paced - and really, it totally deserves to win. I am glad Ford v Ferrari won the BAFTA, because I think it's really well done, and I'm sad it could well be shut out. JoJo won the ACE for comedy.
Cinematography
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917 - will win, should win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Snub: A Hidden Life, Monos
ILU Roger Deakins. (I am THRILLED the Lighthouse is in here. It's GORGEOUS. Here's a great interview with the cinematographer about how they achieved that.)
Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman - spoiler
The Lion King
1917 - will win
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Snub: Cats. Obviously.
God I hope it's not Lion King. It won the VES for photoreal, and indiewire thinks it's going to win. The Irishman won the VES for supporting. 1917 won the BAFTA and the NYT thinks it will win. They're all quite different, and while I think Star Wars will be counted out for more of the same, I don't know if the machine learning they used for digital characters on Endgame was totally new to that film? Or if most folks will think - more marvel explosions? I suppose this category may depend a bit on whether 1917 picked up enough momentum to start pulling in other categories. (As I mentioned above in production design, 1917 might triumph here for how much of the background details were digitally added, presuming folks are well-aware of that fact.) Or will actors be super excited by the possibilities The Irishman gives them?
(I liked what one anonymous director had to say about Lion King; "Lion King is the best-looking, yet most depressing movie I’ve ever seen. It’s amazingly made but entirely 100% creatively bankrupt.")
Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari - will win, should win
Joker
1917 - spoiler
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win
Joker
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
I know the sound categories usually go together, but I'm splitting the difference. Thus ruining my hopes at a perfect 24, but letting me put Ford in for something (and with good reason, too). 1917 won the BAFTA for both and NYT thinks it'll win. indiewire thinks Ford will win for both. Ford won the guild for mixing, and the guild for editing for foley. 1917 won the guild for editing for dialogue. War films are popular picks for oscar voters in sound categories, but... I'm biased. I love Ford. Listen to this.
Original Score
Joker - will win
Little Women - spoiler, should win
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Snub: Monos
Joker has won the BAFTA, CCA, and GG.
Original Song
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman - will win
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen II - spoiler
“Stand Up,” Harriet
Snub: Glasgow - Wild Rose
Rocketman won the GG and CCA. Folks like Elton, and the movie was well liked.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell - will win
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
Snub: ?? Rocketman? Us?
Unless folks COMPLETELY won't vote for anything Fox news. I mean - those prosthetics are crazy. Bombshell won the guild for contemporary, fx, and hair, CCA, and the BAFTA. Joker won the guild for period, because - clown? (fun fact: it was up for contemporary hair styling, so....)
Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence - spoiler
Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone if You’re a Girl - will win
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk, Run, Cha cha
Snub: Ghosts of Sugarland, on the shortlist, nominated for a cinemaeye, and on the DocNYC shortlist
Learning won the IDA and BAFTA, so I think it will take it, but In the Absence is well regarded and the only one of the nominees up for a CCA.
Animated Short
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love - will win
Kitbull - should win
Memorable
Sister
So many beautifully crafted, sad films. I think people will go for something more heartwarming (as did I).
Snub: well - my favorite was a bizarre avant garde polish film called Cold Pudding Settles Love (trailer only), so....
Maestro, by the team that did the fantastic Garden Party, is also a real winner:
Live Action Short
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window - will win
Saria
A Sister - spoiler, should win
I really loved both The Neighbors' Window and A Sister. Brotherhood was well done, as well. I think both Window and Brotherhood have a shot (Brotherhood is very much in the Oscars' wheelhouse, while tony nominee Maria Dizzia is beloved). That said, I'm hoping A Sister resonates for its subject matter. Plus how well done it is.
