Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius
Best Actress: Viola Davis
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
Best Screenplay adapted: The Descendants
Best Screenplay original: Midnight in Paris
Best Animated: Rango
Best Foreign: A Separation
Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Best Editing: The Artist (ugh. As Vulture points out, this would mean Michel Hazanavisius winning three more Oscars in one night than Hitchcock ever won. Ever. Oscar, you are a cruel mistress. (master? gender-neutral sword-holder?))
Best Cinematography: Tree of Life
Best Song: Man or Muppet
Best Score: The Artist
Best Production Design: Hugo
Now, all of the above I'm 90% on. There could be upsets (George Clooney, Meryl Streep, Undefeated or Hell and Back strike me as likeliest) but I think these are solid, safe picks. The next few are a little more divination, so I'm including likely upsets.
Best Costume: The Artist. However, W.E. did win the guild's prize for period piece. But I think Jane Eyre's inclusion will split the period votes and keep it on the Artist. (That and Oscar voters fawning over top hats and tails at movie premieres.)
Best Visual Effects: Rise of Planet of the Apes. Spoiler: Hugo (which would be SUCH a spoiler. Rise was such an achievement in so many respects, it should get this.)
Best Sound Mixing: Hugo
Best Sound Editing: War Horse. Here's where I'm going out on a limb. Most people are predicting Hugo to take both sound categories. While four of the last six ceremonies have lumped the two awards together, none of the previous five years did (and at least one of the winners in each of those years was nominated in both categories). HOWEVER, between the veteran sound editor (complete with NYTimes profile piece), the sounds of shelling and trench warfare, and the sense that the Oscars are spreading it around a little in the technical categories (screen writing, cinematography, production design), I think War Horse takes this one.
Speaking of which, Moneyball may be the only serious best picture contender to go home empty handed. :(
Best short animated: I think it's between La Luna and The Fantastic Flying Books... I'm going safe this year, so I'm sticking with my gut, and picking the flying books. But, as Vulture pointed out, if Pixar doesn't win something Oscar night, the world may well implode.
Best short live action: The Shore. With Raju as spoiler. I think Ciaran Hinds wins it for the lack of Tinker Tailor love. Or because Oscar voters have picked the Irish short in the past. (Martin McDonagh what up!?)
Best short documentary: Hmm. This is between Saving Face and the Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom. I'm going with the Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom for being uplifting and from a past nominee.
Best Makeup: The smart money here is on The Iron Lady. However, I really think that Harry Potter could pull it out here since the biggest (and very well-received) final installment didn't get ANY OTHER LOVE. I'm putting down Iron Lady, but hoping to score 23/24 on my predictions.
Although actually, I'm always pleased if something I think SHOULD win pulls it out over what I predict. (And hey, since the outguess Ebert contest this year does not come with a $100,000 grand prize, a perfect score counts mostly for pride. And a possible iPad.)
Also on that note, the last two years I've gone 17/24 and in 2009 I got 21/24. My goal this year is to tie or best 21...
Who should win (imsho):
Best Picture: Out of this crowd? Moneyball. Tree of Life was beautiful and ambitious, but too flawed to win I think.
Best Actress: Glenn Close. Yeah - I like Lisbeth. But actors get it all the time for body of work. Give it to Glenn.
Best Actor: Gary Oldman. Brad Pitt is good in Moneyball, and both are quiet performances, but Gary gets more range to work with.
Best Supporting Actress: Janet McTeer. I like her.
Best Supporting Actor: Jonah Hill.
Best Director: Terrence Malick. For all around brilliance.
Best Adapted: Hmmm... VERY torn here between Moneyball and Tinker Tailor. Going with Tinker Tailor. (Ides of March was good, too.)
Best Original: The Artist. Going to give it this one - it's a clever concept done well. Margin Call was also good.
Best Animated: Rango
Best Documentary: Pina. Although I plan to see If a Tree Falls soon...
Best Foreign: I've only seen Bullhead. A Separation looks good, though...
Best Costume: W.E. probably. Although I wish Jane Eyre would get something.
Best Production Design: Harry Potter
Best Visual Effects: Rise of Planet of the Apes
Best Editing: Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. So brilliantly done. And since the other large book into film (Tinker Tailor) isn't here...
Best Score: Tinker Tailor
Best Song: Man or Muppet
Best Sound Editing: Drive. Ah - the car chase. SO GOOD.
Best Sound Mixing: Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Cinematography: I actually really liked Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Tree of Life almost as much, and I do adore Emmanuel Lubezki (Children of Men! The New World! Sleepy Hollow!).
Best Makeup: Harry Potter. SO MANY GOBLINS!
The shorts - I'd like The Shore to win for Live Action. No horse in the doc race. On my way to see the animated - toodles!