2021 Oscar Nomination predictions

Tis time.

Here's 2020 (84/118 outright, 110/118 with spoilers), here's 2019 (88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers), here's 2018 (91/121 outright, 113/121 with spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 with spoilers).

2/8: Updates in bold. I am verklempt. How - HOW - did tick, tick... BOOM! get a PGA nom and a FUCKING EDITING NOM and not best picture??? And I'd understand Drive My Car, but NIGHTMARE ALLEY???? THE OTHER FOUR EDITING NOMINEES GOT BEST PICTURE.

(I take some tiny solace in the thought that most people agree it was probably in 11th place, all things considered.)

79/120 outright, 108/120 with spoilers. Shocking. Just shocking.

The non-spoiler surprises (I did baaad this year):
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Director. Not a total surprise - BAFTA nom and NSFC winner.
- Judi Dench in supporting. Not too surprising: Judi. (Crying A LOT over Ruth Negga, who I (and I think everyone) thought was a lock.)
- Attica for doc. Really surprised it made it in over the Rescue.
- Worst Person for screenplay. SOOOOO THRILLED.
- Power of the Dog for Production Design. I thought about it, but it didn't have any precursors. THRILLED.
- Somehow you do for song. I knew better. I really did.
- Belfast for sound. Since it just got the one MPSE, I thought not. But I think the opening scene may have stuck with voters?
- Lead Me Home for doc short
- Boxballet for animated short
- Ala Kachuu - Take and Run, The Dress, or On My Mind for live action short. ???

Perfect categories: Best Actor, Animated. That's it. Rough year.

Best PictureThankfully back to 10, and the nom predictions are slightly exciting because no film got WGA/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble. (Although WGA is only somewhat of a precursor, because so many films are ineligible.)

Okay - locks. Those with a PGA & DGA:

1. Dune - 11 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA

2. Power of the Dog - 8 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, 3 SAGs (but not ensemble, which sucks), WGA ineligible (but up for a scripter)

3. Belfast - 6 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG

4. Licorice Pizza - 5 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA, 1 SAG

5. West Side Story - 5 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA, 1 SAG

Then less certain, but it did get a DGA debut nod, and I just have no objectivity here:
6. tick, tick... BOOM! - PGA, WGA, 1 SAG, DGA (deb)

And the PGA/WGA/ensembles:

7. CODA - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG

8. Don't Look Up - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble

9. King Richard - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG

Least likely, but has the PGA
10. Being the Ricardos - WGA, PGA, 2 SAGs

So yes. I am just picking the PGA nods here. But I'll explain why below.

Spoilers:
- House of Gucci - SAG ensemble, 2 SAGs. This is the most likely to spoil, imho, just because the acting branch is so strong in the Academy. I wouldn't mind it replacing Being the Ricardos.

- Nightmare Alley - WGA, 1 SAG, craft, CCA nom (only CCA nom that didn't overlap with PGA - swapped for Being the Ricardos.) I would have put this ahead of Being the Ricardos, but then... I saw it yesterday. 🤷‍♀️ And although the Shape of Water was loved, that was a better film? So I think the Sorkin love will carry Being the Ricardos (especially after Trial of the Chicago 7 went 0 for 6.).

- Lost Daughter - DGA (deb), (WGA ineligible), 1 SAG. I'd love for this to get in, but it seems unlikely. A chance at screenplay/actress, I think (supporting actress to spoil). 

- Drive My Car - critically beloved & foreign films have broken the best picture barrier? (Yes, they get in every so often, but rarely.) Won the NSFC, LAFC, NYFC. I don't think it has the support Parasite did, but the expanded voting block has been skewing artsier recently, so. 

Could there be something out of left field like the Tragedy of Mackers, No Time to Die (which the BAFTAs loved 🙄), Cyrano (since they love Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)), or French Dispatch? Maybe! (C'mon European contingent for Worst Person! And thank god Zola's up for a ton of Indie Spirits.)

And for the overall breakdown, I think we go:

Power of the Dog - edit, director, actor, s. actress, s. actor x2, adapted screenplay, cinematography, score (spoilers: sound); added: production design - 10 nods, possibly 11. 12!!! SO thrilled it's such a clear frontrunner. (And annoyed at myself - I thought about production design for how good the house was. Shoulda gone with my gut.)

Dune - edit, director, adapted screenplay, cinematography, costume, makeup, production design, visual effects, score, sound - 11 nods (hey! Just like the BAFTAs) 10 - Everything except director, which has to sting, but again: hard to argue with Drive My Car. 

West Side Story -  edit, director, s. actress, s. actor (boo), adapted screenplay (BOO), cinematography, costume, makeup, production design, sound (spoilers:, s. actress (other)) - 11 nods, possibly 12. 7 - Well this wildly underperformed from my expectations

Belfast - edit, director, s. actress, s. actor, cinematography (spoilers: s. actor (other), original screenplay, costume, makeup, production design, song); added: different supporting actress, sound - 6 nods, possibly 12. 7. Ha! Not too bad. I was so worried it would pick up a ton. 

King Richard - actor, s. actress, original screenplay, song (spoiler: edit) - 5 nods, possibly 6. 6

Don't Look Up - original screenplay, score (spoiler: edit) - 3 nods, possibly 4. 4

Didn't have in this list (under spoilers for Best Pic): Drive My Car. 4 (pic, foreign, director, screenplay). 

Ditto: Nightmare Alley. Sigh. 4 (pic, cinematography, costume, production design)

Licorice Pizza - edit, director, original screenplay (spoilers: actress, s. actor, production design) - 4 nods, possibly 7. 3

CODA - s. actor (spoilers: actress, adapted screenplay) - 2 nods, possibly 4. 3

Being the Ricardos - actress, actor, original screenplay, (spoilers: s. actor, score) - 4 nods, possibly 6. 3 (no Best Pic)

tick, tick... BOOM! - actor, adapted screenplay (please) (spoilers: edit (please please please), director, sound) - 3 nods, possibly 6. 2. (no Best Pic) They're two big ones, but still. Sniffles. 

The rest (non-Best Picture) films are: Encanto-3, Flee-3 (which I am DELIGHTED with - I so wanted it to make history there), Lost Daughter - 3, No Time to Die - 3, Tragedy of Mackers - 3, Cruella - 2, Eyes of Tammy Faye - 2, Parallel Mothers - 2, and Worst Person in the World - 2 (yay!!)

I'm rooting for Power of the Dog, because I think it's the best film this year, but I *really* want as many noms as possible for tick, tick... BOOM!, since I adore it and it could go either way. 

I have a terrible sinking feeling Belfast could just get a ton. And, boy. It sure is a movie.

52 Films by Women - 2021

Shockingly - I seem to have done better overall this year (20 features/36 shorts), even though it feels like I saw far fewer films this year (I am slightly down in features). In order to clear our my options list for 2022, here's everything I saw directed by women last year - broken into features and shorts. Ranking current, stars my initial ratings.

2020 here (23/4 - jeez. You can see the difference not going to film fests makes), 2019 here (15/25), 2018 here (22/20)

Features (20)

The Power of the Dog - Jane Campion - 4.5 stars. I just saw this and was blown away. I'm so glad Jane Campion is back making films (Bright Star was my 3rd favorite film of 2009.) The Power of the Dog is tonally VERY different from Bright Star's romanticism. It's chilly, precision clockwork, anchored by a tremendous cast (Thomasin McKenzie gets... 10 lines?). 

Proxima - Alice Winocour - 4.5 stars. My 6th favorite film of 2020. Eva Green is masterful in this and it's an incredible film about the dedication and sacrifice of an astronaut

Never Rarely Sometimes Always - Eliza Hittman - 4.5 stars. And my 7th favorite film of 2020. I tried and didn't really love Beach Rats, but man, this was easily one of the best films of the year. The quiet realism of it is special. And the title scene is so quietly devastating, I'm still thinking about it a year later. 

Dick Johnson is Dead - Kirsten Johnson - 4.5 stars. My 14th fave! Equally joyful/celebratory and sad; had the second best ending scene of the year. 

2021 Mixes

It is time.

Past mixes: 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

I didn't spend a ton of time putting these together, because it's a busy year end and because I've decided it's time for me to listen to all of the Shearwater back catalog, so I need to put this to bed to move on in my listening. And since I usually just listen to the pot on shuffle, this at least has some attempt at transitions.  

This year: the ladies are pissed, and I am here for it. 

Disc 1

1. Johnny Delusional - Franz Ferdinand & Sparks. I saw the delightful film The Sparks Brothers at Sundance and listened to a lot of Sparks subsequently. I very much enjoy them, and as I also like Franz Ferdinand, I'm delighted they did an album together. I listened to this song a LOT.

2. No Gods No Masters - Garbage. I have thoughts on the album further below, but for now - enjoy the title track:

3. I am not a woman, I'm a god - Halsey. I love her new album that she did with Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, so there is a lot of it on here. 

4. NDA - Billie Eilish

5. brutal - Olivia Rodrigo. So good.  (There is apparently a video, but it's a very au courant and fights with the 90s feel of the song I feel)

6. Begging for Trouble - AFI. God I love that AFI is still making songs like this after 30 years. I'm seeing them in the spring and I can't wait. (Omicron WILL pass by then.)

7. The Passenger - Alison Mosshart & the Forest Rangers. Hey is anyone else watching the new season of Dexter?

JWD Award winners

Top 35 here

What can I say - I was lazy on a lot of the below and the answers are obvious!

Best Film:

First Cow
Babyteeth

Gunda

City Hall

Nomadland

Mouthpiece

Proxima

Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Minari

Another Round

Best Popcorn Flick:

The Personal History of David Copperfield

Bad Education (VERY close 2nd)

Wolfwalkers

Summerland

Palm Springs
Hamilton
Emma

Dating Amber

Bloody Hell

Lucky

Film I'm Most Looking Forward To That I Missed:

Bacurau

Beanpole

Corpus Christie

Da 5 Bloods

The Assistant
Kajillionaire

Swallow

My Octopus Teacher

Jane Goodall: The Hope

Quo Vadis, Aida

Best Debut Film:

2020 Oscars Aftermath

As always, hoping for that elusive 22+. Harder now with the expansion of the voting bloc - as we saw come through in the nominations with The Father. 

[Update: 17/23, 22/23 with spoilers - Frances being the only one I had picked for being in 3rd place who won. (And hurray! I'm so thrilled - she deserved it!) But having no wildcard wins really showcases that the longer season made this a pretty boring oscars. Shorter campaign season please!]

Best Picture
The Father - spoiler
Judas and the Black Messiah 
Mank 
Minari 
Nomadland - Will win, should win, did win
Promising Young Woman 
Sound of Metal 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 

This was such a great win, completely and totally undercut by NOT BEING THE LAST AWARD GIVEN OUT. SODERBERGH!!!

Final likely counts for each:
The Father - adapted screenplay, [actor!]
Judas and the Black Messiah - supporting actor, [song!]
Mank - [cinematography], production design
Minari - supporting actress
Nomadland - picture, director, cinematography, [actress!]
Promising Young Woman - original screenplay
Sound of Metal - sound (duh), editing
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - nothing?

 
Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) - spoiler.
David Fincher (Mank) 
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) 
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) - will win, should win, did win
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) 

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) - will win
Andra Day (The United States v. Billie Holiday) 
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) 
Frances McDormand (Nomadland) - should win, did win YAAAYYY!!!!
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) - spoiler

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) - should win
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) - will win
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) - spoiler, did win
Gary Oldman (Mank) 
Steven Yeun (Minari) 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) 
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) 
Olivia Colman (The Father) - spoiler
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) 
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) - will win, did win

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) 
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) - will win, did win
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) 
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) - spoiler, should win
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
 
Best Film Editing
The Father 
Nomadland - should win
Promising Young Woman 
Sound of Metal - Will win, did win
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - spoiler

Best International Feature Film
Another Round (Denmark) - will win, did win
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania) 
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) - spoiler

2020 Oscar Predictions

It's that time again!

It's obviously an odd year. I'm glad they now have an online screening room for voters. I hope they eventually start making more voting categories/nominee voting limited to those that have seen a majority or all films in a category. I'm sorry that, although all the films are small - given the lack of film viewership and production, several truly independent films weren't able to break through, such as First Cow and Never Rarely Sometimes Always. 

As always, hoping for that elusive 22+. Harder now with the expansion of the voting bloc - as we saw come through in the nominations with The Father. 

Past years:

2019: 19 (Bong!)

2018: 20

2017: 15 (Moonlight!)

2016: 17

2015: 21

2014: 20

2013: 18

2012: 17

2011: 17

2010: 17

2009: 20/21? 

And as always, will win/should win/spoilers, as well as some snubs. Although many more ideas on those here. 

Best Picture

The Father - spoiler

Judas and the Black Messiah 

Mank 

Minari 

Nomadland - Will win, should win

Promising Young Woman 

Sound of Metal 

The Trial of the Chicago 7 

Snub: First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Proxima

I'm still really surprised that in a year so focused on racial justice, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey, and One Night in Miami all had legitimate chances to be included here and weren't. I didn't love Ma Rainey or One Night (I thought One Night was okay with some great acting), but to me, that places them easily alongside Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman or Mank. I wonder if two of those would have been included if this were a year of a mandatory 10 nominees (as next year will go back to)?

As for what we do have, the editing nominees are Nomadland, Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman and The Father, so that's probably our real field (Sorry, Minari). Nomadland is the clear frontrunner, having won the PGA, BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, Indie, and GG - drama, as well as the NSFC. It's broadly liked - hitting in the top 10 on most end of year lists. The only major award it didn't win (and wasn't eligible for) was the SAG, which went to Chicago 7. I'm rather split on a spoiler - because actors are the largest voting bloc, so normally I'd go with Chicago 7, but the Father is so well regarded in Europe which, we saw from the nominations, really pushed for it. And I'm not 100% convinced the Oscars won't go with the old hollywood love for Mank, given that it leads with 10 nominations... but with no editing... I'm just giving it by a nose to the Father, which - I haven't seen because I really dislike films about dementia - but I trust Seventh Row's judgement that it is excellent. And, just occasionally, that matters at the Oscars. 

I did think it was interesting that one director pointed out that in a year of stage to film adaptations, the Father was the one that really worked, while One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey did not. (Can't comment on the Father, but I do agree with that assessment of the other two.)

Although I'm not over the First Cow snub (IMMA WEAR MY T-SHIRT), Nomadland is otherwise my favorite film of the year, and it's such a rare delight to think the deserving best film may actually win. 

Final likely counts for each:

The Father - adapted screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah - supporting actor

Mank - cinematography, production design

Minari - supporting actress

Nomadland - picture, director, cinematography

Promising Young Woman - original screenplay

Sound of Metal - sound (duh), editing

The Trial of the Chicago 7 - editing, nothing?

So I think Chicago 7 may be the only thing to get blanked? (I changed my mind on two categories at the last moment...) But it could very well take editing. (Although I hope Nomadland takes adapted screenplay, editing, and cinematography (and actress) as well.) And, I could be wildly discounting what seems to be one of the more traditional Oscar bait films and, given the SAG, I am maybe setting myself up for failure. 

Best Director

Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) - spoiler.

David Fincher (Mank) 

Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) 

Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) - will win, should win

Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) 

Snub: Kelly Reichardt - First Cow, Eliza Hittman - Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Alice Winocour - Proxima. Also I was SO chuffed to see Shannon Murphy land a BAFTA nod for Babyteeth, which I really loved. And it wasn't eligible, but Patricia Rozema - Mouthpiece.

Chloe has won the DGA, GG, BAFTA, NSFC, Indie, LAFC, NYFC and CCA. It's her. And well deserved, too - I love her.

(I'm only throwing Thomas in as a spoiler because Another Round is great. Promising Young Woman is Not For Me (and I'm afraid all the praise probably won't highlight all its problems to Emerald), but like with Darius Marder, I'm interested to see what she does next. That said, there were SO MANY truly great, established women directors who should have been in here instead. Or over David Fincher (and, as a Fincher fan, it pains me to say that.) Even Shannon Murphy, who had a better debt film.)

2020 Oscar Nom predictions

Once again - it's nominations time! Here's 2019 (88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers), here's 2018 (91/121 outright, 113/121 with spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 with spoilers). This is such a bizarre year that I do not expect to do better, but maybe something in the ball park?

Updated with the actual noms in bold. As expected, with such a different year, I did so-so. 84/118 outright or 110/118 with spoilers. So outright a tiny bit better than last year (1 percentage point)  and with spoilers, about the same and on par with 2018.

Did not guess: Thomas Vinterberg - which I am thrilled about, Lakeith Stanfield, which I do not feel bad about about because, while I like him a lot as an actor, nominating him alongside his costar for supporting actor is truly insane, Borat for screenplay, which I do feel bad about because I had it down and then talked myself out of it (although - the most talked about bit is unscripted, so...), Better Days for Foreign, which is pretty out of left field (or as much as one can be from a shortlist), Pinocchio for costumes (what?), The Father for Production Design (again, what?), Love and Monsters for Visual Effects (I forgot this was a film). 

Perfect categories: Best Actress, Best Actor, Cinematography, which I am chuffed about.

Best Picture

Minari - PGA, DGA, SAG, CCA, NBR

One Night in Miami - PGA, SAG, CCA, NBR Freedom of Expression award

Trial of the Chicago 7 - PGA, DGA, SAG, CCA, GG, BAFTA

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - PGA, SAG, CCA

Nomadland - PGA, DGA, GG winner, BAFTA, CCA winner, NBR

Pretty sure:

Promising Young Woman - PGA, DGA, BAFTA, GG, CCA, NBR

Mank - PGA, DGA, GG, CCA

Maybes:

Sound of Metal - PGA, CCA, NBR

Da 5 Bloods - SAG, CCA

Judas and the Black Messiah - PGA, NBR

Spoilers:

Borat - PGA, CCA, GG

The Father - BAFTA

Soul

News of the World - CCA

Palm Springs - CCA comedy winner

Unusually, only Minari and Trial of the Chicago 7 have the DGA/SAG/PGA noms - the SAGs largely went their own way, which makes things interesting, as the largest voting bloc. 

First Cow should be up for best picture. 

[Ed: I'm quite surprised by Ma Rainey and One Night. I wonder if that would have been different if the Oscars had gone back to a guaranteed 10 this year. Also - The Father getting in is the first of the strong increase in the European voting block influence.]

Best Director

Aaron Sorkin - Chicago 7

Chloe Zhao - Nomadland

David Fincher - Mank

Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman

Lee Isaac Chung - Minari

Spoilers:

Regina King - One Night in Miami - GG

Florian Zeller - The Father

The BAFTAs really went their own way with Thomas Vinterberg and Jasmila Zbanic (the better choices) as well as Shannon Murphy, which I am so chuffed about and she knows!:

Obviously Kelly Reichardt should be in here. At least she's up for an indie. As is Eliza Hittman. Spike Lee is up for a CCA and won the NBR, but nothing else.

[FUCK YES THOMAS VINTERBERG OVER AARON SORKIN! He was one of my favorites from the year.]

Best Editing

Mank - guild

Nomadland - guild

Trial of the Chicago 7 - won CCA, guild

Sound of Metal - won CCA, guild

Minari - guild

Spoilers:

One Night in Miami - possible best pic

Ma Rainey's - possible best pic

Promising Young Woman - BAFTA, possible best pic, guild - comedy

Da 5 Bloods - possible best pic

The Father - BAFTA, won LAFC

Never Rarely is at least up for an Indie. Time and City Hall should be up, but when do Docs actually get editing nods? 

[Mank not getting in here is not good for its overall chances.]

Best Actress

Carey Mulligan - SAG, GG

Frances McDormand - SAG, BAFTA, GG

Vanessa Kirby - SAG, BAFTA, GG

Viola Davis - SAG, GG

I'm sort of torn on the 5th. Amy Adams would be the usual choice as a SAG nominee, and she's so beloved, but that movie was so panned. Still - Never Rarely isn't getting any PGA/DGA love, so I'm going with Andra, but Amy is a strong spoiler:

Andra Day - GG winner

Spoilers

Amy Adams - SAG

Sidney Flanigan - CCA, Indie, NBR bkth, NYFC, NSFC top 3

Julia Garner - Indie

I think Maria Bakalova will be hurt by category confusion - she won for lead at the GGs, but has been up for supporting for the SAGs and BAFTA, so I'll cover her below.

Eva Green should be up for Proxima.

Best Actor

Anthony Hopkins

Chadwick Boseman

Gary Oldman

Riz Ahmed

Steven Yuen

Spoilers:

Mads Mikkelsen - BAFTA, won EFA

Tahar Rahim - BAFTA, GG

Adarsh Gourav - indie, BAFTA

Delroy Lindo - CCA, won NYFC, won NSFC

I don't think Ben Affleck or Tom Hanks have enough support but Hanks, at least, is beloved... I wish Mads had more of a shot. 

Supporting Actress

Helena Zengel

Maria Bakalova

Olivia Colman

Youn Yuh-jung

Amanda Seyfried 

Again with Hillbilly - Glenn Close is beloved, and got a SAG, but I'm sure the GG nom was bought, and that film... I think Amanda Seyfried will slip in. Old hollywood love, and she's the best part of Mank...

Spoilers

Glenn Close

Dominique Fishback

Jodie Foster

Ellen Burstyn

As wonderful as Youn Yuh-jung is in Minari, I wish Yeri Han were up. She is so great. At least she's up for an indie, as are Talia Ryder and Valerie Mahaffey. All three are favorites. (although perhaps Yeri is subject to category confusion as well?)

Supporting Actor

Chadwick Boseman

Leslie Odom Jr.

Sacha Baron Cohen

Daniel Kaluuya

Paul Raci

The SAGs nominating Jared Leto is insanity. I can't. Paul Raci is great, and up for a BAFTA, so fingers crossed.

Spoilers

Jared Leto

Alan Kim

Glynn Turman

Bill Murray

I wish Orion Lee were up! He's up for an Indie... As is Benedict Wong for Nine Days. David Thewlis should be up, too! David Strathairn could also sneak in for a Nomadland wave, which would be great. 

[Did not guess.... Lakeith Stanfield. The Judas of Judas and the Black Messiah. Because, ya know, the subject of that film....]

Screenplay - Adapted

One Night in Miami

Nomadland

Ma Rainey's

First Cow

Bad Education

Spoilers

I'm Thinking of Ending Things

News of the World

White Tiger

The Mauritanian

The Father

I have a sinking suspicion I'm Thinking of Ending Things will get in over First Cow. Because the last time the USC Scripter deviated from the Oscars, it was with my fave, Leave No Trace. If News of the World makes a stronger than expected showing, it could get in...

[Goddamnit. I talked myself out of Borat, when it had been in here. Very sad about First Cow.]

Screenplay - Original

Trial of the Chicago 7

Promising Young Woman

Mank

Minari

Judas and the Black Messiah

Spoilers

Another Round

Sound of Metal

Palm Springs

Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Soul

[Truly delighted Mank didn't get in here, despite having the most overall nominations.]

Animated

Wolfwalkers

Soul

Onward

Over the Moon

Croods 2

Spoilers

I really don't think there will be any, but our options here are Shaun the Sheep Farmageddon (it would be nice to get in over the croods), Trolls World Tour, and the Whilloughbys

World of Tomorrow 3 should obviously be eligible, despite the in-between runtime...

[Hell yes Shaun the Sheep!]

Documentary

Dick Johnson is Dead

My Octopus Teacher

Time

Truffle Hunters

Boys State

Spoilers

Collective - BAFTA

Mole Agent (Painter and the Thief got a DGA nod, but this seems to be a crowdpleaser)

Welcome to Chechnya - DGA

All In - WGA

Crip Camp

Gunda should be up. City Hall not even being eligible is a joke. 

[Truly shocked that Dick Johnson isn't in here.]

Foreign

Another Round

Quo Vadis, Aida?

Dear Comrades

Night of the Kings

Collective

Spoilers

Two of Us

La Llorona

Mole Agent

I'm No Longer Here

The Man Who Sold His Skin

I think that's it, but... A Sun? Hope?

Ema is too bizarre for the Oscars, but it's amazing

[Ed: Missed Better Days which... I have not heard of.]

Cinematography

Mank

Nomadland

Trial of the Chicago 7

News of the World

Judas and the Black Messiah - BAFTA

Spoilers

Cherry - guild. There's nothing behind this, so I can't imagine it's going to get in

The Mauritanian - BAFTA

First Cow - CCA (please please please)

Da 5 Bloods - CCA

Never Rarely - Indies

Gunda should be up. 

Costumes

EMMA

Ma Rainey's

Mank

Promising Young Woman

Mulan

Spoilers

Judas and the Black Messiah

One Night in Miami

David Copperfield

The Glorias (because: Sandy Powell)

Ammonite

Variety seems to think News of the World is a potential spoiler. I wish Birds of Prey were.

[Did not guess: Pinocchio. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯]

Makeup/Hair

Birds of Prey

Ma Rainey's

Mank

Hillbilly Elegy

Emma

Spoilers

Jingle Jangle

Pinocchio

The Glorias

One Night in Miami

Production Design

Mank

Mulan

Ma Rainey's

News of the World

Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoilers

Emma

Tenet

Midnight Sky

Promising Young Woman

I'm Thinking of Ending Things

I really hope Emma gets in.

[The Father? Over Emma? Really?]

Visual Effects

Mank

Midnight Sky

Mulan

Tenet

Welcome to Chechnya

Spoilers

One and Only Ivan

Birds of Prey

Soul

[Love and Monsters. ??? Did not recall this was a film.]

Score

Mank

Minari

News of the World

Soul

Midnight Sky

Spoiler

Tenet

Trial of the Chicago 7

Invisible Man

Little Things

Da 5 Bloods

(What on earth is Blizzard of Souls???)

Song

Speak Now - One Night in Miami

Io Si - the Life Ahead

Fight for You - Judas and the Black Messiah

Turntables - All in

Show Me your Soul - Soul

Spoilers

I can't imagine it'll actually make it in, but it was up for a CCA: Husavik - Eurovision

Hear my Voice - Chicago 7

Rain Song - Minari

Make it Work - Jingle Jangle

And since South Park made it in: Wuhan Flu?

QUEEN BEE SHOULD BE ELIGIBLE. Maybe What a Life, too.

Sound

Greyhound

Mank

News of the World

Sound of Metal

Trial of the Chicago 7

Spoilers

Midnight Sky

Nomadland

Ma Rainey's

Tenet

Soul

Short Doc

A Love Song for Latasha

Abortion Helpline this is Lisa

Call Center Blues

Hunger Ward

Speed Cubers

Spoilers

Do Not Split

Hysterical Girl

What Would Sophia Loren Do?

Colette

A Concerto is a Conversation

How fucked is it that No Crying at the Dinner Table isn't up/wasn't up last year???

Short Live

White Eye

Two Distant Strangers

The Human Voice

The Letter Room

Bittu

Spoilers

Da Yie

Feeling Through

Kicksled Coir

The Present

The Van

Short Animated

The Snail and the Whale

If Anything Happens I Love You

Kapaemahu

Opera

Out

Spoilers

Traces 

Burrow

Yes-People

To Gerard

Genius Loci