2021 Oscars aftermath

Well, I did terribly on the noms this year, so who knows how this'll go. Also, I planned to do this on Saturday, but I found out SFFilm had a contest ending at midnight, so this'll also likely be faster than most years. Maybe that'll be good? More gut decisions, less overthinking?

Also - I'm not watching this shitshow. If you aren't broadcasting editing and score, I DON'T FUCKING CARE. WHAT DO YOU THINK MAKES A MOVIE A MOVIE. Fuck you forever ABC.

Update 3/27: What a boring show (assault aside). I got 20/23, 22/23 with spoilers (and while knowing Belfast was the smart spoiler, but simply refusing.) I came in 1974/9498 on gold derby, which isn't horrible. But basically the only winner not predicted by the pundits was the Windshield Wiper, which was still the second most likely. (And I'm THRILLED it won. It and Jane were kind of the only two I cared about.) 

Look - I've loved the Oscars (or love/hated) for years. Everything about tonight was disgraceful. It was STILL longer than the last three shows and it disrespected the people making the films. And given how many people I saw on twitter either not watching or declaring the oscars irrelevant from here on out, I hope the Academy does a hard reset going into next year. (Here is a good thread more eloquently expressing those same thoughts.)

Best Picture
Belfast
CODA - spoiler, did win
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog - will win, should win
West Side Story

If anyone makes a potent movie soon about the ways that men, especially, tangle up intimacy with hostility and protection with violence, I hope it wins many awards!

— Nick Davis (@NicksFlickPicks) March 28, 2022

In the end, I think it breaks down as:
Belfast - original screenplay
CODA - supporting actor, adapted screenplay, picture
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car - foreign
Dune - edit, cinematography, production design, vfx, score, sound
King Richard - actor
Licorice Pizza - original screenplay
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog - picture, director
West Side Story - supporting actress

Apparently the money is on CODA for picture and Belfast for original screenplay (excuse me while I throw up a little), but it looks like all my other picks line up with the pundits. I may be taking myself out of the running for a SFFilm cinevisa (finally! The first oscar betting I really care about), but I CANNOT bring myself to put Belfast down for screenplay. Others must have been as bored as I was! (I can no longer find the tweet, but whoever said 'screenwriters please consider you may not be the most interesting character in your own story' was correct!)

2021 Oscar predictions

Well, I did terribly on the noms this year, so who knows how this'll go. Also, I planned to do this on Saturday, but I found out SFFilm had a contest ending at midnight, so this'll also likely be faster than most years. Maybe that'll be good? More gut decisions, less overthinking?

Also - I'm not watching this shitshow. If you aren't broadcasting editing and score, I DON'T FUCKING CARE. WHAT DO YOU THINK MAKES A MOVIE A MOVIE. Fuck you forever ABC.

I can't believe ABC cares more about some viewer they think will be enticed to watch by Shaun White than someone like me:
Past years:

2020: 17

2019: 19 (Bong!)

2018: 20

2017: 15 (Moonlight!)

2016: 17

2015: 21

2014: 20

2013: 18

2012: 17

2011: 17

2010: 17

2009: 20/21? 

My best of 2021 list is just Roy Kent saying fuck 10 different ways.

— Brianna Ashby (@brianna_ashby) December 15, 2021

Best Picture
Belfast
CODA - spoiler
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog - will win, should win
West Side Story

Well, this was Power of the Dog's to lose, and I do believe it may have been lost in the last two weeks. *sigh* It certainly still has a good shot. It won the BAFTA and CCA. But CODA won the SAG (Dog wasn't up) and the PGA. The bets are on CODA, but I wonder if it's too... Disney? to win. (And listen - I wouldn't be mad at a CODA win. Twitter is mad, but I liked it a lot and far more than I expected! As David Ehrlich put it, "the specific pleasure of watching a good movie get away with the kind of bullshit that usually makes you want to vomit." It's true! It shouldn't work as well as it does! At least we're no longer discussing a Belfast win!) But I'm going with BAFTA over PGA on this one. Maybe dumb, but...

In the end, I think it breaks down as:
Belfast
CODA - supporting actor, adapted screenplay
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car - foreign
Dune - edit, cinematography, production design, vfx, score, sound
King Richard - actor
Licorice Pizza - original screenplay
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog - picture, director
West Side Story - supporting actress

Apparently the money is on CODA for picture and Belfast for original screenplay (excuse me while I throw up a little), but it looks like all my other picks line up with the pundits. I may be taking myself out of the running for a SFFilm cinevisa (finally! The first oscar betting I really care about), but I CANNOT bring myself to put Belfast down for screenplay. Others must have been as bored as I was! (I can no longer find the tweet, but whoever said 'screenwriters please consider you may not be the most interesting character in your own story' was correct!)

2021 Oscar Nomination predictions

Tis time.

Here's 2020 (84/118 outright, 110/118 with spoilers), here's 2019 (88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers), here's 2018 (91/121 outright, 113/121 with spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 with spoilers).

2/8: Updates in bold. I am verklempt. How - HOW - did tick, tick... BOOM! get a PGA nom and a FUCKING EDITING NOM and not best picture??? And I'd understand Drive My Car, but NIGHTMARE ALLEY???? THE OTHER FOUR EDITING NOMINEES GOT BEST PICTURE.

(I take some tiny solace in the thought that most people agree it was probably in 11th place, all things considered.)

79/120 outright, 108/120 with spoilers. Shocking. Just shocking.

The non-spoiler surprises (I did baaad this year):
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Director. Not a total surprise - BAFTA nom and NSFC winner.
- Judi Dench in supporting. Not too surprising: Judi. (Crying A LOT over Ruth Negga, who I (and I think everyone) thought was a lock.)
- Attica for doc. Really surprised it made it in over the Rescue.
- Worst Person for screenplay. SOOOOO THRILLED.
- Power of the Dog for Production Design. I thought about it, but it didn't have any precursors. THRILLED.
- Somehow you do for song. I knew better. I really did.
- Belfast for sound. Since it just got the one MPSE, I thought not. But I think the opening scene may have stuck with voters?
- Lead Me Home for doc short
- Boxballet for animated short
- Ala Kachuu - Take and Run, The Dress, or On My Mind for live action short. ???

Perfect categories: Best Actor, Animated. That's it. Rough year.

Best PictureThankfully back to 10, and the nom predictions are slightly exciting because no film got WGA/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble. (Although WGA is only somewhat of a precursor, because so many films are ineligible.)

Okay - locks. Those with a PGA & DGA:

1. Dune - 11 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA

2. Power of the Dog - 8 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, 3 SAGs (but not ensemble, which sucks), WGA ineligible (but up for a scripter)

3. Belfast - 6 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG

4. Licorice Pizza - 5 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA, 1 SAG

5. West Side Story - 5 BAFTAs, PGA, DGA, WGA, 1 SAG

Then less certain, but it did get a DGA debut nod, and I just have no objectivity here:
6. tick, tick... BOOM! - PGA, WGA, 1 SAG, DGA (deb)

And the PGA/WGA/ensembles:

7. CODA - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG

8. Don't Look Up - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble

9. King Richard - PGA, WGA, SAG ensemble, 1 SAG

Least likely, but has the PGA
10. Being the Ricardos - WGA, PGA, 2 SAGs

So yes. I am just picking the PGA nods here. But I'll explain why below.

Spoilers:
- House of Gucci - SAG ensemble, 2 SAGs. This is the most likely to spoil, imho, just because the acting branch is so strong in the Academy. I wouldn't mind it replacing Being the Ricardos.

- Nightmare Alley - WGA, 1 SAG, craft, CCA nom (only CCA nom that didn't overlap with PGA - swapped for Being the Ricardos.) I would have put this ahead of Being the Ricardos, but then... I saw it yesterday. 🤷‍♀️ And although the Shape of Water was loved, that was a better film? So I think the Sorkin love will carry Being the Ricardos (especially after Trial of the Chicago 7 went 0 for 6.).

- Lost Daughter - DGA (deb), (WGA ineligible), 1 SAG. I'd love for this to get in, but it seems unlikely. A chance at screenplay/actress, I think (supporting actress to spoil). 

- Drive My Car - critically beloved & foreign films have broken the best picture barrier? (Yes, they get in every so often, but rarely.) Won the NSFC, LAFC, NYFC. I don't think it has the support Parasite did, but the expanded voting block has been skewing artsier recently, so. 

Could there be something out of left field like the Tragedy of Mackers, No Time to Die (which the BAFTAs loved 🙄), Cyrano (since they love Joe Wright (Darkest Hour)), or French Dispatch? Maybe! (C'mon European contingent for Worst Person! And thank god Zola's up for a ton of Indie Spirits.)

And for the overall breakdown, I think we go:

Power of the Dog - edit, director, actor, s. actress, s. actor x2, adapted screenplay, cinematography, score (spoilers: sound); added: production design - 10 nods, possibly 11. 12!!! SO thrilled it's such a clear frontrunner. (And annoyed at myself - I thought about production design for how good the house was. Shoulda gone with my gut.)

Dune - edit, director, adapted screenplay, cinematography, costume, makeup, production design, visual effects, score, sound - 11 nods (hey! Just like the BAFTAs) 10 - Everything except director, which has to sting, but again: hard to argue with Drive My Car. 

West Side Story -  edit, director, s. actress, s. actor (boo), adapted screenplay (BOO), cinematography, costume, makeup, production design, sound (spoilers:, s. actress (other)) - 11 nods, possibly 12. 7 - Well this wildly underperformed from my expectations

Belfast - edit, director, s. actress, s. actor, cinematography (spoilers: s. actor (other), original screenplay, costume, makeup, production design, song); added: different supporting actress, sound - 6 nods, possibly 12. 7. Ha! Not too bad. I was so worried it would pick up a ton. 

King Richard - actor, s. actress, original screenplay, song (spoiler: edit) - 5 nods, possibly 6. 6

Don't Look Up - original screenplay, score (spoiler: edit) - 3 nods, possibly 4. 4

Didn't have in this list (under spoilers for Best Pic): Drive My Car. 4 (pic, foreign, director, screenplay). 

Ditto: Nightmare Alley. Sigh. 4 (pic, cinematography, costume, production design)

Licorice Pizza - edit, director, original screenplay (spoilers: actress, s. actor, production design) - 4 nods, possibly 7. 3

CODA - s. actor (spoilers: actress, adapted screenplay) - 2 nods, possibly 4. 3

Being the Ricardos - actress, actor, original screenplay, (spoilers: s. actor, score) - 4 nods, possibly 6. 3 (no Best Pic)

tick, tick... BOOM! - actor, adapted screenplay (please) (spoilers: edit (please please please), director, sound) - 3 nods, possibly 6. 2. (no Best Pic) They're two big ones, but still. Sniffles. 

The rest (non-Best Picture) films are: Encanto-3, Flee-3 (which I am DELIGHTED with - I so wanted it to make history there), Lost Daughter - 3, No Time to Die - 3, Tragedy of Mackers - 3, Cruella - 2, Eyes of Tammy Faye - 2, Parallel Mothers - 2, and Worst Person in the World - 2 (yay!!)

I'm rooting for Power of the Dog, because I think it's the best film this year, but I *really* want as many noms as possible for tick, tick... BOOM!, since I adore it and it could go either way. 

I have a terrible sinking feeling Belfast could just get a ton. And, boy. It sure is a movie.

52 Films by Women - 2021

Shockingly - I seem to have done better overall this year (20 features/36 shorts), even though it feels like I saw far fewer films this year (I am slightly down in features). In order to clear our my options list for 2022, here's everything I saw directed by women last year - broken into features and shorts. Ranking current, stars my initial ratings.

2020 here (23/4 - jeez. You can see the difference not going to film fests makes), 2019 here (15/25), 2018 here (22/20)

Features (20)

The Power of the Dog - Jane Campion - 4.5 stars. I just saw this and was blown away. I'm so glad Jane Campion is back making films (Bright Star was my 3rd favorite film of 2009.) The Power of the Dog is tonally VERY different from Bright Star's romanticism. It's chilly, precision clockwork, anchored by a tremendous cast (Thomasin McKenzie gets... 10 lines?). 

Proxima - Alice Winocour - 4.5 stars. My 6th favorite film of 2020. Eva Green is masterful in this and it's an incredible film about the dedication and sacrifice of an astronaut

Never Rarely Sometimes Always - Eliza Hittman - 4.5 stars. And my 7th favorite film of 2020. I tried and didn't really love Beach Rats, but man, this was easily one of the best films of the year. The quiet realism of it is special. And the title scene is so quietly devastating, I'm still thinking about it a year later. 

Dick Johnson is Dead - Kirsten Johnson - 4.5 stars. My 14th fave! Equally joyful/celebratory and sad; had the second best ending scene of the year. 

2021 Mixes

It is time.

Past mixes: 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

I didn't spend a ton of time putting these together, because it's a busy year end and because I've decided it's time for me to listen to all of the Shearwater back catalog, so I need to put this to bed to move on in my listening. And since I usually just listen to the pot on shuffle, this at least has some attempt at transitions.  

This year: the ladies are pissed, and I am here for it. 

Disc 1

1. Johnny Delusional - Franz Ferdinand & Sparks. I saw the delightful film The Sparks Brothers at Sundance and listened to a lot of Sparks subsequently. I very much enjoy them, and as I also like Franz Ferdinand, I'm delighted they did an album together. I listened to this song a LOT.

2. No Gods No Masters - Garbage. I have thoughts on the album further below, but for now - enjoy the title track:

3. I am not a woman, I'm a god - Halsey. I love her new album that she did with Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, so there is a lot of it on here. 

4. NDA - Billie Eilish

5. brutal - Olivia Rodrigo. So good.  (There is apparently a video, but it's a very au courant and fights with the 90s feel of the song I feel)

6. Begging for Trouble - AFI. God I love that AFI is still making songs like this after 30 years. I'm seeing them in the spring and I can't wait. (Omicron WILL pass by then.)

7. The Passenger - Alison Mosshart & the Forest Rangers. Hey is anyone else watching the new season of Dexter?

JWD Award winners

Top 35 here

What can I say - I was lazy on a lot of the below and the answers are obvious!

Best Film:

First Cow
Babyteeth

Gunda

City Hall

Nomadland

Mouthpiece

Proxima

Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Minari

Another Round

Best Popcorn Flick:

The Personal History of David Copperfield

Bad Education (VERY close 2nd)

Wolfwalkers

Summerland

Palm Springs
Hamilton
Emma

Dating Amber

Bloody Hell

Lucky

Film I'm Most Looking Forward To That I Missed:

Bacurau

Beanpole

Corpus Christie

Da 5 Bloods

The Assistant
Kajillionaire

Swallow

My Octopus Teacher

Jane Goodall: The Hope

Quo Vadis, Aida

Best Debut Film:

2020 Oscars Aftermath

As always, hoping for that elusive 22+. Harder now with the expansion of the voting bloc - as we saw come through in the nominations with The Father. 

[Update: 17/23, 22/23 with spoilers - Frances being the only one I had picked for being in 3rd place who won. (And hurray! I'm so thrilled - she deserved it!) But having no wildcard wins really showcases that the longer season made this a pretty boring oscars. Shorter campaign season please!]

Best Picture
The Father - spoiler
Judas and the Black Messiah 
Mank 
Minari 
Nomadland - Will win, should win, did win
Promising Young Woman 
Sound of Metal 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 

This was such a great win, completely and totally undercut by NOT BEING THE LAST AWARD GIVEN OUT. SODERBERGH!!!

Final likely counts for each:
The Father - adapted screenplay, [actor!]
Judas and the Black Messiah - supporting actor, [song!]
Mank - [cinematography], production design
Minari - supporting actress
Nomadland - picture, director, cinematography, [actress!]
Promising Young Woman - original screenplay
Sound of Metal - sound (duh), editing
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - nothing?

 
Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) - spoiler.
David Fincher (Mank) 
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) 
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) - will win, should win, did win
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) 

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) - will win
Andra Day (The United States v. Billie Holiday) 
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) 
Frances McDormand (Nomadland) - should win, did win YAAAYYY!!!!
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) - spoiler

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) - should win
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) - will win
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) - spoiler, did win
Gary Oldman (Mank) 
Steven Yeun (Minari) 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) 
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) 
Olivia Colman (The Father) - spoiler
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) 
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) - will win, did win

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) 
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) - will win, did win
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) 
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) - spoiler, should win
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
 
Best Film Editing
The Father 
Nomadland - should win
Promising Young Woman 
Sound of Metal - Will win, did win
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - spoiler

Best International Feature Film
Another Round (Denmark) - will win, did win
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania) 
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) - spoiler