Much like with the noms, I am still not on top of the race. But those predictions turned out okay, so.... fingers crossed?
Past years: 2023: 18, 2022: 16 (yikes), 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21?
And, like last year, I am so far behind on films that I mostly don't have very fully formed 'should win' opinions. I think these are mostly predictable/in line with pundits, but I'll go fill out my games and see.
Best Picture
Anora - spoiler
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave - will win
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Well - Anora picked up a lot of steam, and the PGA is important, but I think the BAFTA/SAG takes it. I'm hoping Anora wins, though.
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist - will win
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown - spoiler
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
This one is SUCH a toss up. Adrien Brody won most awards until the SAGs. The actors are the largest body, but...
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora - spoiler
Demi Moore, The Substance - will win
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain - will win
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown - spoiler
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
The supporting categories aren't really close
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked - spoiler
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez - will win
Animated Feature Film
Flow - spoiler
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot - will win
Sniffles. Flow has won a lot! A foreign voters are 20% of the voters, but I think the Wild Robot has too many precursors among guilds.
Documentary Feature Film
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land - will win
Porcelain War - spoiler
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
I would have said No Other Land was a lock until Trump met with Putin. I think this may come down to when people voted.
International Feature Film
I’m Still Here
The Girl with the Needle
Emilia Pérez - will win
The Seed of the Sacred Fig - spoiler
Flow
Directing
Sean Baker, Anora - will win
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist - spoiler
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Cinematography
Lol Crawley, The Brutalist - will win
Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two
Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Pérez
Ed Lachman, Maria - spoiler
Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu
I'd love a Maria upset here
Original Screenplay
Anora - will win
The Brutalist
A Real Pain - spoiler
September 5
The Substance
I swapped these only due to Anora's momentum
Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown
Conclave - will win
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys - spoiler
Sing Sing
Conclave won most things, but I'm putting Nickel Boys as the spoiler for having won the WGA
Film Editing
Anora - spoiler
The Brutalist
Conclave - will win
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Tough - as September 5 won a lot of things. Also, my continual cry: WHYYY are the Ace Eddies after the Oscars??
Original Song
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez - will win
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight - spoiler
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
At some point, surely, the vote will go Diane's way just to end the run
Original Score
The Brutalist - will win
Conclave - spoiler
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Another tricky one, as Challengers won most precursors (WHAT does the Academy have against Trent Reznor??)
Sound
A Complete Unknown - spoiler
Dune: Part Two - will win
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
I think Wicked is also a likely spoiler (musical, MPSE music win), but A Complete Unknown won the CAS, and I've heard some love for the mix, so...
Production Design
The Brutalist - spoiler
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked - will win
Although I wonder if this will be like my picking Barbie last year.
Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two - will win
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - spoiler
Wicked
I think more people saw Dune. And it won the CCA/BAFTA.
Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance - will win
Wicked - spoiler
Costume Design
Arianne Phillips, A Complete Unknown
Lisy Christl, Conclave
Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Gladiator II
Linda Muir, Nosferatu - spoiler
Paul Tazewell, Wicked - will win
(Yay Paul Tazewell!)
Best Animated Short
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress - spoiler
Magic Candles
Wander to Wonder - will win
Yuck!
I've heard some love for Yuck!, but Wander has the most precursors (won the britIndie, AiF, BAFTA brit, and Annie, plus an EFA nom.) Shadow of the Cypress might feel like the biggest issue film?
Best Documentary Short
Death by Numbers
I am Ready, Warden - will win
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart - spoiler
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Based purely on subject matter. Instruments won the IDA, Incident won the CinemaEye but sounds too modern. Only Girl is Netflix, so could have the edge there.
Best Live-Action Short
A Lien - spoiler
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent - will win
No comments:
Post a Comment