Updates 3/2 in bold.
15/23. 20/23 with spoilers. Fucking terrible performance (although in the 94th percentile on ESPN? WHAT is going on over there??), but DEEPLY thrilled with the Flow and Anora upsets! I love losing when it means the films that should win, do!
Missed the doc/live shorts and international film and two of those, in hindsight, feel like I should have gotten them. C'est la vie.
Much like with the noms, I am still not on top of the race. But those predictions turned out okay, so.... fingers crossed?
Past years: 2023: 18, 2022: 16 (yikes), 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21?
And, like last year, I am so far behind on films that I mostly don't have very fully formed 'should win' opinions. I think these are mostly predictable/in line with pundits, but I'll go fill out my games and see.
Best Picture
Anora - spoiler, did win. YAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYY. The best film of the year (as far as I know) actually won best film!
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave - will win
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist - will win, did win
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown - spoiler
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora - spoiler, did win
Demi Moore, The Substance - will win
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain - will win, did win
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown - spoiler
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
[Side note: YIKES on that speech. I had always meant to get around to Succession, but now?]
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked - spoiler
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez - will win, did win
Animated Feature Film
Flow - spoiler, did win YAAAAAAAAAAAAY
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot - will win
Documentary Feature Film
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land - will win, did win
Porcelain War - spoiler
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
International Feature Film
I’m Still Here - did win
The Girl with the Needle
Emilia Pérez - will win
The Seed of the Sacred Fig - spoiler
Flow
Should have called this as spoiler, based on the Best Picture inclusion, but it still came so out of left field at the last moment. I can only imagine due to the subject matter and, well, everything.
Directing
Sean Baker, Anora - will win, did win
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist - spoiler
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Cinematography
Lol Crawley, The Brutalist - will win, did win (aww. I was hoping for a Maria upset)
Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two
Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Pérez
Ed Lachman, Maria - spoiler
Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu
Original Screenplay
Anora - will win, did win
The Brutalist
A Real Pain - spoiler
September 5
The Substance
Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown
Conclave - will win, did win
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys - spoiler
Sing Sing
Film Editing
Anora - spoiler, did win (YAY!)
The Brutalist
Conclave - will win
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Original Song
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez - will win, did win
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight - spoiler
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Original Score
The Brutalist - will win, did win
Conclave - spoiler
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Sound
A Complete Unknown - spoiler
Dune: Part Two - will win, did win
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Production Design
The Brutalist - spoiler
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked - will win, did win
Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two - will win, did win
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - spoiler
Wicked
Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance - will win, did win
Wicked - spoiler
Costume Design
Arianne Phillips, A Complete Unknown
Lisy Christl, Conclave
Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Gladiator II
Linda Muir, Nosferatu - spoiler
Paul Tazewell, Wicked - will win, did win
(Yay Paul Tazewell!)
Best Animated Short
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress - spoiler, did win
Magic Candles
Wander to Wonder - will win
Yuck!
Best Documentary Short
Death by Numbers
I am Ready, Warden - will win
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart - spoiler
The Only Girl in the Orchestra - did win. BOO Netflix dominance
Best Live-Action Short
A Lien - spoiler
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot - did win. Whoa. This felt pretty surprising.
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent - will win
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