Updates 3/15 in bold.
I really thought this would be more of a two-horse race, but despite the volume for Sinners in the room, I wonder if it didn't resonate with the international blocs as much?
Why was the sound so bad for this? Drop the applause mix for the clips. Make sure the mics work. Also - weird timing issues, right? Was it presenters not leaning into the bit? Not rehearsing? That said, I liked Conan again and, aside from the Diane Keaton bit, the In Memoriam was VERY well done. That line of actors for Rob Reiner just broke my heart.
Another bad year - 15, but I'm giving myself a bonus point for getting the tie, since I actually got 16 of the winners. My out-there pics mostly didn't pay off, documentary aside. 23 with spoilers - the only one I didn't get was Amy Madigan. I probably should have banked on the BAFTAs rewarding their own, but I really thought Sinners had more momentum.
Well, the nominations went shockingly well, so let's think good thoughts here.
Past years: 2024: 15 (double yikes) 2023: 18, 2022: 16 (yikes), 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21?
Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another - will win, should win (afaik), did win
Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners - spoiler
Train Dreams
Look - I still need to see 5 of the films, but... I loved One Battle. It has also won all the precursors, save the SAGs. The actors are, historically the largest branch and voted Sinners, but I think the European contingent will go with the political resonance of One Battle. Sinners does have momentum, and I wonder if the BAFTAs swayed voting at all.
Overall, I think the noms will work out as:
Bugonia - 0
F1 - 0, sound
Frankenstein - costume, production design, makeup
Hamnet - actress
Marty Supreme - 0 inshallah
One Battle After Another - picture, director, adapted screenplay, editing, cinematography, casting, supporting actor
Secret Agent - international
Sentimental Value - supporting actor, international
Sinners - actor, supporting actress, original screenplay, casting, makeup, score, cinematography
Train Dreams - 0 - that seems sad.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley - will win, did win
Rose Byrne - spoiler
Kate Hudson
Renate Reinsve
Emma Stone
HELL YES.
First Irish Best Actress Winner! (she said 'Go raibh maith agaibh, slán' or thank you, goodnight at the end there.)
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet
Leonardo DiCaprio - spoiler
Ethan Hawke
Michael B Jordan - will win, did win
Wagner Moura
Yay!! (Would've been equally thrilled for Leo - he was brilliant and I loved David Ehrlich's essay on why it's a culmination of his work: https://letterboxd.com/davidehrlich/film/one-battle-after-another/reviews/)
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Amy Madigan - did win
Wunmi Mosaku - will win
Teyana Taylor - spoiler
After all the cheering, I really thought Wunmi might have been in on the Sinners goodwill. I hope Amy has a wonderful hollywood community who is so thrilled for her right now. I love when long-time working actors get their due.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro
Jacob Elordi
Delroy Lindo
Sean Penn - spoiler, did win
Stellan Skarsgard - will win
Dude. Show up.
Director
Chloe Zhao
Josh Safdie
Paul Thomas Anderson - will win, did win
Joachim Trier
Ryan Coogler - spoiler
Thrilled he got it, and you have a chance to give another lovely speech about cinema, and... not so much. You wait that long, and you win for writing, you could come up with something approaching Sean Baker's speeches last year.
Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident - spoiler
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners - will win, did win
Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle - will win, did win
Train Dreams
Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle - spoiler, did win
Secret Agent
Sinners - will win
Yay! I love this pick. Teyana was genius casting and Chase Infinity is such a find.
Animated
Arco
Elio
Kpop - will win, did win
Little Amelie
Zootopia - spoiler
No surprises here.
Documentary
The Alabama Solution
Come and See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin - will win, did win
The Perfect Neighbor - spoiler
I CALLED THAT SHIT. (I am sorry Perfect Neighbor didn't win - it's an incredible achievement.)
International
The Secret Agent - will win
It Was Just an Accident
Sentimental Value - spoiler, did win
Sirat
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Yay film nerd from Norway!
Editing
Sentimental Value
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle - will win, did win
Sinners - spoiler
Yup.
Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
Sinners - spoiler, did win
One Battle - will win
Train Dreams
*sigh* I really had some issues with the cinematography of sinners. Maybe it'll play better on a smaller screen, but it was so noticeable in IMAX. That said, fucking finally for a woman winning it. (Someone did note it should win for being a modern movie set at night where you can tell what is going on and AMEN TO THAT.)
Costumes
Avatar
Frankenstein - will win, did win
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners - spoiler
Malachite gown! Feather head!
Makeup
Frankenstein - spoiler, did win
Kokuho
Sinners - will win
Smashing Machine
Ugly Stepsister
Ah. Second time the Sinners momentum didn't carry the day.
Production Design
Frankenstein - will win, did win
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle - spoiler
Sinners
VFX
Avatar - will win, did win
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
Lost Bus
Sinners - spoiler
Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle - spoiler
Sinners - will win, did win
Love Ludwig Göransson's work, AND really thought One Battle should've taken this. The score was so, so good.
Song
Dear Me (Diane Warren)
Golden (KPOP) - will win, did win
I Lied to You (Sinners) - spoiler
Sweet Dreams of Joy (Viva Verdi)
Train Dreams
ugghhhhhhhhhhh
Also - not showing the songs for that nonsense bridesmaid bit was a mess.
Sound
F1 - spoiler, did win
Frankenstein
One Battle
Sinners
Sirat - will win
Eh - predictable. Once Stellan didn't come through, I wasn't very surprised it went this way.
Short-Doc
All the Empty Rooms - will win, did win
The Devil is Busy
perfectly a strangeness - spoiler
Armed Only with a Camera
Children No More
Short-Live
Butcher's Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen's Period Drama
The Singers - will win, did win
Two People Exchanging Saliva - spoiler, did win
HOLY FUCK. When was the last time there was a tie?? [Update: thank you winner, for letting us know this is the 4th tie in history] [Update to the update: Marya Gates reliably informs us it is the 7th tie in history.]
I AM GIVING MYSELF A BONUS POINT FOR GETTING BOTH WINNERS
Short -Ani
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls - spoiler, did win
Retirement Plan - will win
The Tree Sisters
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