I CANNOT BELIEVE I MISSED THAT TODAY WAS OSCAR NOM DAY. That's the way my month has been. *sigh*
So I have been spoiled on 3 things: 2 adapted screenplay noms, 1 supporting actor snub (?), and one best picture nom, but it was Oppenheimer, so that hardly counts. So I'm going to quickly make my predictions and then see if I was right.
Last year was my best ever year. This year, let's try not to do worse than 2021. If I do terribly, I'm blaming it on doing these at midnight in the middle of a very stressful week.
2022 (91/120; 114/120), 2021 (79/120; 108/120), 2020 (84/118; 110/118), 2019 (88/124; 113/124), 2018 (91/121; 113/121), 2017 (90/122; 118/122).
[Ed: update with correct answers in bold. Anything missed in italics.
Totals: 82/120 - not my worst!
107/120 with spoilers - but yeah - oof. Officially my worst year there. WHAT was going on in documentary??
Perfect categories - 4: PICTURE. YEAH I DID. Actor. Original Screenplay. Costume.
Missed - 13: Ryan Gosling (I thought I had seen that he was snubbed, so I didn't count him. c'est la vie.) Teachers' Lounge for foreign. Holdovers for editing. Creator for Sound. Bobi Wine, Eternal Memory & To Kill a Tiger - Doc. Island in Between - short Doc. Red White and Blue - live short. Ninety five senses - animated short. Wahzhazhe for song. American Fiction & Indiana Jones for score.
Maybe more color commentary once I've slept.]
Picture
Assuming 10 (I have reasons, but I'm too tired to type them all out):
Oppenheimer
Killers
Holdovers
Anatomy of a Fall
Zone of Interest
Poor Things
American Fiction
Barbie
Past Lives
Maestro
Spoilers
Saltburn
Color Purple
All of Us Strangers
May December
[Updated color commentary 1/24: I am really sad All of Us and May December didn't make it in over Barbie and Maestro. I also guessed Oppenheimer would be up for 13 nom (got 13), Poor Things 12 (got 11 - swapped supporting actor (spoiler), I guessed VFX), Killers 12 (got 10, I guessed makeup, sound, screenplay, and it got song, which I ended up NOT putting as a poiler), Barbie 10 (got 8 - I guessed director/actress/score/sound, thought Ryan was out on supporting, missed supporting actress (spoiler)), Maestro 7 (7), Zone 5 (5 but I guessed supporting actress and editing, and it got director and screenplay - both spoilers for me), American Fiction 4 (5 - got score, which was totally unexpected for me. Gotta go listen to that now.), Anatomy 4/5 (5 missed director (listed as spoiler)), Holdovers 5 (5 - guessed director, it got editing out of nowhere!), and Past Lives 2 (2 Really wish it had made it into song!)
Also - All of Us Strangers getting skunked? WTF. It's not a huge shocker when some of the best films are left out, but this one had a real shot. At least it's up for 6 (shoulda been 7) BAFTAs and 3 Indies.]
Editing
Oppenheimer (BAFTA, won CCA)
Killers (BAFTA, CCA)
Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA)
Anatomy of a Fall (BAFTA, LAFC)
Zone of Interest (BAFTA)
Holdovers. Interesting! No precursors. Even more excited to see it now.
Spoilers
Barbie (CCA)
Maestro (CCA)
Air (CCA)
All of Us Strangers (BritIndie, LAFC runner up)
Rotting in the Sun (Indie) (I mean, not really. But tickled to throw it in)
Director
Christopher Nolan (all of them)
Alexander Payne (DGA, CCA, BAFTA)
Greta Gerwig (DGA, CCA)
Martin Scorsese (DGA, CCA)
Yorgos Lanthimos (DGA, CCA)
Spoilers
Bradley Cooper (CCA, BAFTA)
Jonathan Glazer (BAFTA)
Andrew Haigh (BAFTA) (PLEASE)
Andrew Haigh (BAFTA) (PLEASE)
Justine Triet (BAFTA)
Celine Song (DGA deb, GG, Indie)
Sorry, Todd Haynes. :(
[1/24: Really delighted Jonathan and Justine made it in, although given the Holdovers strong showing, I'm a little surprised. I am sad about Andrew Haigh.]
Actress
Lily Gladstone (SAG, CCA, GG, NFSC)
Emma Stone (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Carey Mulligan (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Margot Robbie (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Sandra Huller (Anatomy) (BAFTA, CCA, GG, NSFC)
Spoilers
Annette Benning (SAG)
Fantasia Barrino (BAFTA)
Greta Lee (CCA, GG)
Cailee Spaeny (GG, gotham)
Natalie Portman (GG, Indie)
[1/24: Yeah - I'm good with this. Emma Stone better calm the fuck down with her campaigning. She's risking pulling an Anne Hathaway.]
Actor
Cillian Murphy (SAG)
Colman Domingo (SAG)
Bradley Cooper (SAG)
Paul Giamatti (SAG)
Jeffrey Wright (SAG)
(Look - I'll always over-weight the SAG noms, because actors are the largest branch)
Spoilers
Andrew Scott (BritIndie, LAFC, Indie, Gotham, NSFC, GG)
Barry Keoghan (GG, BAFTA)
Teo Yoo (BAFTA, indie)
Leo (CCA, GG)
Franz Rogowski (gotham, Indie, NYFC)
[1/24: BOOOOO No Andrew Scott. ðŸ˜]
Supporting Actress
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (everything)
Emily Blunt (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Danielle Brooks (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Jodie Foster (SAG, CCA, GG)
Sandra Huller (Zone) (BAFTA)
Spoilers
Penelope Cruz (SAG)
Claire Foy (BAFTA)
Rosamund Pike (BAFTA)
Julianne Moore (CCA, GG)
America Ferrera (CCA)
[1/24: I mean - I like America fine, but not for this. And I really would have liked Sandra to be up for the double. Luckily, Da'Vine seems to be sweeping.]
Supporting Actor
So I'm pretty sure I saw Ryan Gosling didn't get a nom. So counting him out:
Robert De Niro (SAG)
Robert Downey Jr (SAG)
Sterling K. Brown (SAG)
Willem Dafoe (SAG)
Charles Melton (NSFC, CCA, GG, gotham)
Ryan Gosling
Aha - the article title I saw was 'reacts to barbie snub' but he was talking about director/actress. Oops
Spoilers
Dominic Sessa (BAFTA)
Jacob Elordi (BAFTA)
Mark Ruffalo (CCA, GG)
Paul Mescal (BAFTA)
Glenn Howerton (gotham, indie)
[1/24: https://i.gifer.com/6us.gif]
Screenplay - O
Anatomy of a Fall (GG, gotham, bafta)
May December (NSFC, CCA)
Past Lives (BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Holdovers (BAFTA, CCA, Indie)
Maestro (BAFTA, CCA)
Spoilers
Air (CCA)
Asteroid City
But no really. No other original screenplay has been nominated for a thing.
[1/24: Well at least May December wasn't skunked.]
Screenplay - A
Okay - so I know Barbie got nominated here (after campaigning for original and then getting slotted into adapted. So other 4:
American Fiction (scripter)
Killers (scripter)
Oppenheimer (scripter)
Poor Things (scripter)
Spoilers
All of Us Strangers (CCA/BAFTA)
Are You There God? (CCA)
Zone of Interest (BAFTA)
Origin (scripter)
Spiderverse
[I mean - Barbie being nominated for that unholy mess isn't surprising, given how hard they've been campaigning. But yikes.]
Foreign
Society of the Snow (GG, BAFTA, CCA)
Zone of Interest (GG, BAFTA, CCA, NSFC Runner up, Indie)
Fallen Leaves (GG, NSFC)
20 Days in Mariupol (BAFTA)
Taste of Things (CCA)
Teachers' Lounge
The fuck?
Spoilers
Perfect Days (CCA)
Io Capitano (GG)
Godland (Indie)
Totem (Indie, LAFC Runner up)
Promised Land (Mads)
[1/24 so, so surprised by this. Really can't figure out why foreign and documentary went so unexpectedly.]
Animated
Boy and the Heron
Spiderverse
Elemental
TMNT
I really hope Nimona here
Spoilers
Super Mario Bros
Chicken Run
Robot Dreams
Suzume
Wish
Doc
American Symphony (PGA, BAFTA, 6 CCA, DocNY shortlist)
Beyond Utopia (PGA, BAFTA, 4 CCA)
20 Days in Mariupol (PGA BAFTA, NSFC runner up, 5 CCA, Doc NY shortlist)
Still (BAFTA, won CCA)
Mother of All Lies (PGA, DocNY, IDA, Indie)
Bobi Wine: The People's President (won the IDA, DocNY shortlist)
Eternal Memory (2 CCA, DocNY shortlist, won IDA editing)
To Kill a Tiger (literally not a single precursor.)
WOW. What in the left field happened here?
Spoilers
Disappearance of Shere Hite (PGA)
Smoke Sauna Sisterhood (PGA)
Squaring the Circle (PGA)
Kokomo City (NSFC runner up)
Four Daughters (Gotham)
Cinematography
Killers (guild, NSFC, BAFTA, CCA, LAFC Runner up)
Poor Things (guild, BAFTA, CCA, LAFC)
Maestro (guild, BAFTA, CCA)
Oppenheimer (guild, BAFTA, NSFC Runner up, NYFC, Won CCA)
Zone of Interest (BAFTA, NSFC Runner up)
Spoilers
Barbie (CCA, LAFC Runner up)
Saltburn (CCA)
El Conde (guild)
Holdovers (Indie)
All of Us Strangers (BritIndie)
[1/24: Whoo! Left field freaky guild nom!]
Costume
Barbie (guild, won CCA, BAFTA)
Killers (guild, CCA, BAFTA)
Napoleon (guild, CCA, BAFTA)
Poor Things (guild, CCA, BAFTA)
Oppenheimer (guild, BAFTA)
Spoilers
Color Purple (CCA)
Wonka (CCA)
Maestro (guild)
Saltburn (guild)
Priscilla
[1/24: Obviously, according to ye olde youtubes, it wasn't a great year for period costumes.]
Makeup
Poor Things (guild, CCA, BAFTA)
Oppenheimer (guild, CCA, BAFTA)
Maestro ((guild, CCA, BAFTA)
Killers (BAFTA)
Napoleon (BAFTA)
Spoilers
Society of the Snow
Golda (guild)
Ferrari
Production Design
Poor Things (ADG, CCA, LAFC runner up, BAFTA)
Barbie (ADG, Won CCA, LAFC, BAFTA)
Killers (ADG, CCA, BAFTA)
Oppenheimer (ADG, CCA, BAFTA)
Saltburn (ADG, CCA)
Spoilers
Asteroid City (ADG, CCA)
Zone of Interest (BAFTA)
Maestro (ADG)
Napoleon (ADG)
Wonka (ADG)
VFX
The Creator (BAFTA, CCA, VES)
Guardians (BAFTA, CCA, VES)
Mission Impossible (BAFTA, CCA)
Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA)
Spiderverse (VES, CCA)
Spoilers
Indiana Jones (VES)
Society of the Snow (VES)
Napoleon (VES)
Godzilla Minus One
Score
Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Killers (BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Spider verse (BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Barbie (CCA, LAFC runner up)
American Fiction So surprised. Not a single precursor.
Indiana Jones. Really? I mean, I get the John Williams love, but okay.
Spoilers
Zone of Interest (LAFC, GG)
Boy and the Heron (GG)
Saltburn (BAFTA)
Society of the Snow (CCA)
American Symphony
Song
I'm Just Ken - Barbie (GG, CCA)
Road to Freedom - Rustin (GG, CCA)
What Was I Made For - Barbie (GG, CCA)
Am I Dreaming - Spiderverse (I am WILLING IT INTO EXISTENCE)
It Never Went Away - American Symphony (I just can't believe they'd nominate 3 barbie songs, & Jon Batiste is popular)
Wahzhazhe - Killers. Aww man. I thought about putting that in spoilers.
Spoilers
Dance the Night - Barbie (GG, CCA)
Dear Alien - Asteroid City
The Fire Inside - Flamin' Hot (obligatory Diane Warren blackmail spot)
Quiet Eyes - Past Lives
Can't Catch Me Now - Hunger Games
[1/24: Kinda sad Olivia didn't topple Diane Warren.]
Sound
Ferrari (MPSE, CAS, BAFTA)
Maestro (MPSE, CAS, BAFTA)
Oppenheimer (MPSE, CAS, BAFTA)
Barbie (MPSE, CAS)
Killers of the Flower Moon (MPSE, CAS)
Creator
Spoilers
Zone of Interest (BAFTA)
Killer (MPSE - foley)
Napoleon (MPSE - adr & foley)
Mission Impossible (BAFTA)
[1/24, I like these swaps. Creator is pretty surprising.]
Short Doc
Last Repair Shop
Nai Nai & Wai Po
Between Earth & Sky
Black Girls Play
Deciding Vote
Island in Between
Spoilers
Barber of Little Rock
Camp Courage
ABCs of Book Banning
Last Song from Kabul
Bear
Short Live
Invisible Border
Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
The After
Yellow
Good Boy
Red, White and Blue
Spoilers
the One Note Man
Knight of Fortune
An Avocado Pit
Dead Cat
Invincible
Short Animated
Wild Summon
A Kind of Testament
Letter to a Pig
Once Upon a Studio
War is Over!
Ninety-five senses
Spoilers
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
Humo
Dog Apartment
27
[1/24: Letter to a Pig is the only one from the shortlist I've seen so far, and I thought it was great, so glad to see it got in.]
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