"I perceive value, I confer value, I create value, I even create — or guarantee — existence. Hence, my compulsion to make “lists.” The things (Beethoven’s music, movies, business firms) won’t exist unless I signify my interest in them by at least noting down their names.” -Susan Sontag
19/24!!!! And so so happy!!! Called the spoilers on all the ones I didn't get. Too too thrilled Ford v. Ferrari got two awards, squealed when it won editing (although I would have been perfectly happy for Parasite to get it, COULD NOT BELIEVE Bong got director! (and was so generous in his speech) And the best picture won best picture! I LOVE IT WHEN THAT HAPPENS.
I find it hilarious that I got splitting the sound categories correct, but then it swapped. I really thought Ford would get mixing!
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite - spoiler, should win, DID WIN!!!!!! YAAAAAAAAYYYYYY
I hope to GOD Joker only takes actor and score. Here's where I think it'll all shake out:
Ford v Ferrari - I'm thinking sound mixing, but I'm hoping for both sound and editing upsets [sound editing, editing] YAAAAS EDITING UPSET
The Irishman - shut out, unless it pulls an upset in vfx
Jojo Rabbit - adapted screenplay
Joker - actor, score
Little Women - costume, could pull an upset in adapted screenplay
Marriage Story - supporting actress
1917 - picture, cinematography, sound editing, director, vfx [sound mixing]
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - supporting actor, production design
Parasite - editing, foreign, original screenplay. Hoping for a picture upset. [Director, PICTURE]
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917 - will win
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite - spoiler, should win, did win!
Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker - will win, did win
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy - will win, did win
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story - will win, did win
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit - spoiler
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman - should win
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win, did win
Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - will win, did win
Joker
Little Women - spoiler
The Two Popes
Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - spoiler
Parasite - will win, should win, did win
Costume Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - spoiler, should win
Joker
Little Women - will win, did win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Documentary Feature
American Factory - will win, did win
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama - spoiler
Honeyland
International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea) - will win, should win, did win!
Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body - probably should win?
Klaus - spoiler
Missing Link
Toy Story 4 - will win, did win
Production Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win, did win
Parasite- spoiler, should win
Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win, DID WIN! YAAAYYY!!!!
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite - will win
Cinematography
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917 - will win, should win, did win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman - spoiler
The Lion King
1917 - will win, did win
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari - will win, should win
Joker
1917 - spoiler, did win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win, did win!
Joker
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Original Score
Joker - will win, did win
Little Women - spoiler, should win
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Original Song
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman - will win, did win
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen II - spoiler
“Stand Up,” Harriet
Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell - will win, did win
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence - spoiler
Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone if You’re a Girl - will win, did win
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk, Run, Cha cha Animated Short
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love - will win, did win
Kitbull - should win
Memorable
Sister
Live Action Short
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window - will win, did win
Saria
A Sister - spoiler, should win
A lot of these are close two horse races, which should make for an exciting broadcast. Of note; I always hope to do better than 22/24 for a personal best. Last year I got 20, so okay (and the best I've done since they've opened up the voting bloc, and these have become much more unpredictable). The year before I got 15, which was the worst I've done in ages and was so, SO happy about it (Moonlight). 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20 (although I wrote 21 somewhere - I wonder if I swapped a category at the last minute...).
It's funny looking back at some older predictions, because in 2011, best director/picture had only differed 12 times since 1948, and since then it's differed 5 times.
(My other normal year-end posts are delayed, because I'm waiting to see Portrait of a Lady on Fire before picking my top films & other awards)
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite - spoiler, should win
Snub: A Hidden Life, possibly Portrait of a Lady on Fire
I am desperately hoping Parasite could win. And winning the SAG ensemble is such a tempting bellwether! But I don't think it overlaps as often as the PGA (unlike the individual SAG wins). (Fun Oscar fact - a win would make 1917 the first ever best picture winner without an acting or editing nod!) But as 1917 took the GG-Drama and PGA, it will likely win. The last time a winner of those didn't was Brokeback Mountain. And while I'm willing to believe Joker=Crash, Parasite is the potential upset here, and folks may still think editing and foreign are enough. Then again, with the diversity push, 20% of the Academy is now foreign.... maybe? Please?
I hope to GOD Joker only takes actor and score. Here's where I think it'll all shake out:
Ford v Ferrari - I'm thinking sound mixing, but I'm hoping for both sound and editing upsets
The Irishman - shut out, unless it pulls an upset in vfx
Jojo Rabbit - adapted screenplay
Joker - actor, score
Little Women - costume, could pull an upset in adapted screenplay
Marriage Story - supporting actress
1917 - picture, cinematography, sound editing, director, vfx
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - supporting actor, production design
Parasite - editing, foreign, original screenplay. Hoping for a picture upset
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917 - will win
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite - spoiler, should win
Snub: Joanna Hogg - The Souvenir
Sam Mendes won the DGA, GG, and BAFTA.
Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker - will win
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Snub: Tom Burke - The Souvenir
I.. have only seen Once, and I thought Leo did a terrific job (and was largely my favorite part in a movie I didn't think worked.) But the acting nods are pretty close to wrapped up. I'm just going to pretend Joaquin is winning this for You Were Never Really Here. He's won the SAG, BAFTA, CCA, and GG.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy - will win
Snub: Honor Swinton Byrne - The Souvenir, Aisling Franciosi - The Nightingale, Karen Allen - Colewell (up for an indie!)
Boy - just no opinions on the nominees this year! Saoirse was okay, but Little Women didn't work for me. No one in hollywood is going to vote for Megyn Kelly. I'm thrilled Cynthia Erivo got a nod - I love her a lot. Renee has won the SAG, GG, BAFTA, NBR, CCA, BritIndie, and is up for an indie.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story - will win
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit - spoiler
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Snub: Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell, Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers, Julianne Nicholson - Monos
If there's going to be an upset, folks think it'll happen here. But Laura has won the SAG, BAFTA, NSFC, GG, NYFC, and CCA. ScarJo hasn't won anything in this category, but I guess some people think Marriage Story isn't popular enough, and ScarJo being a double nominee might pull it out here. I will say this might be the first time I've found her tolerable in a film.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman - should win
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win
Snub: Jonathan Majors - Last Black Man in San Francisco, Andrew Scott - 1917 (I know it's like 2 seconds - but he does SO MUCH in that time!)
Definitely Brad Pitt. Which, I'd be okay with a lifetime achievement, but it puts a really bad taste in my mouth that he's winning for playing a wife-killer that's played for jokes, and his speeches have been... distasteful in parts. *sigh* And Joe Pesci came out of retirement for that lovely, restrained turn. But Brad's won the SAG, BAFTA, NSFC, GG, NBR and CCA.
Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - will win
Joker
Little Women - spoiler
The Two Popes
Snub: ?? Hustlers? I can barely think of any other adapted screenplays.
JoJo is the safe bet here, but I wonder if enough folks are upset about Greta's director 'snub' for sympathy votes to carry the day here. And she won the USC Scripter, which was the PERFECT predictor until last year, with LEAVE NO TRACE (YES I'M STILL ANGRY) and given that that was also a woman... JoJo has momentum with the WGA and BAFTA.
Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - spoiler
Parasite - will win, should win
Snub: The Farewell, Booksmart
Parasite has also won the WGA and BAFTA, as well as the NSFC. Once won the CCA and GG, and Quentin is very associated with this prize...
Costume Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit - spoiler, should win
Joker
Little Women - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This one is a little tricky! Jojo won the guild award for period costume, Little Women won the BAFTA. I feel like people see period dresses and vote for that. But JoJo's costumes really stuck out, and I am but a simple person and really loved Sam Rockwell's cape...
Documentary Feature
American Factory - will win
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama - spoiler
Honeyland
Snub: Aquarela. My fave, made the shortlist. C'est la vie.
Tricky again! Because the PGA went to Apollo 11. I think American Factory, because: topical, Obama support, won the DGA, Gotha, LAFC, and Cinemaeye. For Sama got the BAFTA and BritIndie. For Sama won best pic at the IDA while American Factory took best director. But I think the Brits have paid more attention to Syria than Americans (although! the White Helmets won short a couple of years ago. Last Men in Aleppo did not win 2 years ago...)
International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea) - will win, should win
Snub: Probably Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Ash is Purest White
I'M OKAY WITH IT WINNING BOTH. Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body - probably should win?
Klaus - spoiler
Missing Link
Toy Story 4 - will win
I think Toy Story 4 gets it (it got the PGA, CCA, MPSE and ACE Eddie), but it's still weird Frozen 2 isn't in here. Klaus (?) won the BAFTA and the Annie, as well as all 7 Annie categories it was nominated in. Missing Link won the GG and VES.
Production Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - will win
Parasite- spoiler, should win
Snub: The Souvenir, Knives Out
This is a close one. Parasite won the guild for contemporary, while Once won the guild for Period. Period usually predicts, plus Once won the CCA and LAFC. 1917 won the BAFTA (and while I thought it was quite impressive, I also didn't realize how many battlefield elements were VFX. But watching them go into the German trench - I just thought: this is going to be up for production design.) I'd love to see folks go contemporary for how wonderful the Parasite sets were.
Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite - will win
Parasite won the ACE Eddie, and it's beautifully constructed and paced - and really, it totally deserves to win. I am glad Ford v Ferrari won the BAFTA, because I think it's really well done, and I'm sad it could well be shut out. JoJo won the ACE for comedy.
Cinematography
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917 - will win, should win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Snub: A Hidden Life, Monos
ILU Roger Deakins. (I am THRILLED the Lighthouse is in here. It's GORGEOUS. Here's a great interview with the cinematographer about how they achieved that.)
Visual Effects
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman - spoiler
The Lion King
1917 - will win
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Snub: Cats. Obviously.
God I hope it's not Lion King. It won the VES for photoreal, and indiewire thinks it's going to win. The Irishman won the VES for supporting. 1917 won the BAFTA and the NYT thinks it will win. They're all quite different, and while I think Star Wars will be counted out for more of the same, I don't know if the machine learning they used for digital characters on Endgame was totally new to that film? Or if most folks will think - more marvel explosions? I suppose this category may depend a bit on whether 1917 picked up enough momentum to start pulling in other categories. (As I mentioned above in production design, 1917 might triumph here for how much of the background details were digitally added, presuming folks are well-aware of that fact.) Or will actors be super excited by the possibilities The Irishman gives them?
(I liked what one anonymous director had to say about Lion King; "Lion King is the best-looking, yet most depressing movie I’ve ever seen. It’s amazingly made but entirely 100% creatively bankrupt.")
Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari - will win, should win
Joker
1917 - spoiler
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari - spoiler, should win
Joker
1917 - will win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
I know the sound categories usually go together, but I'm splitting the difference. Thus ruining my hopes at a perfect 24, but letting me put Ford in for something (and with good reason, too). 1917 won the BAFTA for both and NYT thinks it'll win. indiewire thinks Ford will win for both. Ford won the guild for mixing, and the guild for editing for foley. 1917 won the guild for editing for dialogue. War films are popular picks for oscar voters in sound categories, but... I'm biased. I love Ford. Listen to this.
Original Score
Joker - will win
Little Women - spoiler, should win
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Snub: Monos
Joker has won the BAFTA, CCA, and GG.
Original Song
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman - will win
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen II - spoiler
“Stand Up,” Harriet
Snub: Glasgow - Wild Rose
Rocketman won the GG and CCA. Folks like Elton, and the movie was well liked.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell - will win
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
Snub: ?? Rocketman? Us?
Unless folks COMPLETELY won't vote for anything Fox news. I mean - those prosthetics are crazy. Bombshell won the guild for contemporary, fx, and hair, CCA, and the BAFTA. Joker won the guild for period, because - clown? (fun fact: it was up for contemporary hair styling, so....)
Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence - spoiler
Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone if You’re a Girl - will win
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk, Run, Cha cha
Snub: Ghosts of Sugarland, on the shortlist, nominated for a cinemaeye, and on the DocNYC shortlist
Learning won the IDA and BAFTA, so I think it will take it, but In the Absence is well regarded and the only one of the nominees up for a CCA.
Animated Short
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love - will win
Kitbull - should win
Memorable
Sister
So many beautifully crafted, sad films. I think people will go for something more heartwarming (as did I).
Snub: well - my favorite was a bizarre avant garde polish film called Cold Pudding Settles Love (trailer only), so....
Maestro, by the team that did the fantastic Garden Party, is also a real winner:
Live Action Short
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window - will win
Saria
A Sister - spoiler, should win
I really loved both The Neighbors' Window and A Sister. Brotherhood was well done, as well. I think both Window and Brotherhood have a shot (Brotherhood is very much in the Oscars' wheelhouse, while tony nominee Maria Dizzia is beloved). That said, I'm hoping A Sister resonates for its subject matter. Plus how well done it is.
Edit: Updated with the noms bolded. This year is WEIRD.
88/124 outright, 113/124 with spoilers. Boo - I got worse. More later - but quick impressions:
No Once Upon a Time for Editing?! Whoa. That doesn't bode well. But thankfully 1917 didn't get one either, and those two are probably the ones to beat alongside Joker.
Yay Parasite over Joker for Production Design!
Noooooo No Glasgow for Best Song. Sniffles
Yaaaaaaaaaaas The Lighthouse for Cinematography!!!
NO FROZEN FOR BEST ANIMATED 😲
The left-field ones: Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell (yay! Although boo for Hustlers), Edge of Democracy, Corpus Christie, Joker for costumes, Maleficent for Makeup, Toy Story 4 for song, Ad Astra for Mixing (???), 1917 for Sound Editing, Walk Run Cha-Cha.
The categories I got entirely: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (not a hard year...), Best Adapted Screenplay,
This shortened season is messing with my head. I've done this a couple of times now - here's 2018 (I got 91/121 outright, and 113/121 counting spoilers) and here's 2017 (90/122 outright, or 118/122 if you count spoilers). Let's go for 92 this year?
Best Picture
The most sure: 1. Once Upon a Time 2. Parasite 3. The Irishman 4. JoJo Rabbit
These have the SAG/PGA/DGA noms, which are the most important precursors.
Pretty Sure: 5. 1917 (on the upswing, lots of BAFTA and craft noms, WGA, no SAGs) 6. Ford v. Ferrari (editing nods are good, plus craft noms and three BAFTAs, SAG actor, but not ensemble) 7. Joker (crafts, BAFTAs, WGA, SAG actor, but not ensemble)
Maybe: 8. Little Women (5 BAFTAs, WGA, no SAGs) 9. Marriage Story (3 SAGs, WGA, some indies, 5 BAFTAs)
If 10:
10. Knives Out (PGA)
Spoilers
Bombshell (SAG ensemble)
Dolemite (GG, NBR, Won CCA - comedy)
Uncut Gems (indie, CCA, NBR)
Two Popes (BAFTA brit nom, GG)
Rocketman (GG)
The Farewell (indie, NBR - indie)
I wish A Hidden Life were being discussed. At all.
Best Director
Bong Joon Ho - Parasite Martin Scorsese - Irishman Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time
Taika Waititi - JoJo Sam Mendes - 1917
Spoilers: Todd Phillips - Joker (please no, please no, please no - BAFTA, GG)
Greta Gerwig - Little Women (CCA, NSFC)
Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story (CCA)
The Safdie Brothers - Uncut Gems (CCA)
Lulu Wang - The Farewell (no precursors, but campaigning hard)
I just don't have any faith in a woman getting nominated
Best Editing
Irishman (Thelma! ACE Eddie, BAFTA, CCA)) Ford v. Ferrari (Ace Eddie, BAFTA, CCA) JoJo Rabbit (Ace Eddie - Comedy, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (Ace Eddie - Comedy, BAFTA) Parasite (Ace Eddie, CCA)
Spoilers Joker (ACE Eddie, BAFTA (please no, please no, please no))
1917 - I... can't with an edit nom here. But it just won the CCA. It has no other nominations, but someone was just mentioning they expected an editing nod, which I found so bizarre.
Knives Out (Ace Eddie - comedy)
Marriage Story (Ace Eddie)
The Farewell (Ace Eddie - comedy)
Uncut Gems (CCA)
Best Actress
Renee Zellweger - Judy Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Lupita Nyongo - Us Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Cynthia got the SAG nom, but Saoirse got the BAFTA (so did Jessie Buckley, but Wild Rose wasn't seen as much here.) Mary Kay Place got a few nods, but I can't see an upset here. I'm hoping Lupita stays in, so that the Oscars don't go all white, like the BAFTAs.
Personally, I'm THRILLED Karen Allen is up for an Indie for Colewell, which a beautiful performance. And I can't speak to Portrait of a Lady on Fire because of their STUPID STUPID release strategy.
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Joaquin Phoenix - Joker (Imma just pretend this is for You Were Never Really Here)
Taron Egerton - Rocketman
Christian Bale - Ford v. Ferrari Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Going with the SAG picks here, largely because Christian Bale is demonstrably beloved by the academy (also I really loved this performance, so I'm *hoping* he stays in)
Spoilers Jonathan Pryce - the Two Popes (BAFTA, GG nods) Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory (GG, NSFC, NYFC, LAFC nods)
Robert DeNiro - Irishman (CCA nod)
Eddie Murphy - Dolemite (GG, CCA nods)
Adam Sandler (Gotham, Indie, NSFC, NBR nods)
Personally, if 1917 ends up over-performing, I'd love to see George Mackay here - I thought he was great.
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern - Marriage Story (the one to beat) Margot Robbie - Bombshell Florence Pugh - Little Women Scarlett Johansson - JoJo
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Not guessed: Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell
Spoilers
Margot Robbie - Once Upon (BAFTA)
Nicole Kidman - Bombshell (SAG, but no others)
I think Florence has been so beloved in the role, that she'll upset despite no SAG nod. She got the BAFTA, as well as a few other nods. And she's having a big year (see: Vogue cover this month). I'd LOVE to see Zhao Shuzhen in here for the Farewell.
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time (he's gonna win) Joe Pesci - The Irishman Al Pacino - The Irishman Tom Hanks - It's a Beautiful Day Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes (BAFTA, GG)
Spoiler
Jamie Foxx - Just Mercy (SAG, but nothing else)
Song Kang Ho - Parasite (NSFC)
Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse (CCA, beloved)
Personally I'd love to see Jonathan Majors or Matt Damon make it in.
Screenplay - Original
Booksmart (WGA, BAFTA) Knives Out (WGA, BAFTA) Marriage Story (WGA, BAFTA, GG) Once Upon a time (WGA ineligible, BAFTA, won GG, NSFC runner-up) Parasite (WGA, BAFTA, NSFC winner, GG)
Spoilers 1917 (WGA)
The Farewell
Uncut Gems
Screenplay - Adapted
So - usually the USC scripter is the best predictor in this category, until last year when Leave No Trace was so RUDELY shut out. But still. Irishman (WGA, BAFTA, GG, Scripter) JoJo (WGA, BAFTA, Scripter) Little Women (WGA, BAFTA, NSFC runner-up, Scripter) Two Popes (BAFTA, GG, Scripter) Joker (WGA, BAFTA)
Spoilers
Dark Waters (Scripter)
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (WGA)
Animated
Frozen 2 (10 nods; 8 Annie noms) How to Train Your Dragon (8 nods, 6 Annie) Missing Link (6 nods, 8 Annie) Toy Story 4 (11 nods, 6 Annie) I Lost My Body (7 overall nods, 6 annie - but the big one was for best indie; CCA, also the Oscars have recently often had an adult animation that makes the cut) (And it got an ACE Eddie nom.)
Spoilers
Abominable (6 nods, 4 Annie)) Klaus (BAFTA; 3 nods, 7 Annie)
Shaun the Sheep: Farmaggedon (BAFTA, but... home town pride)
Weathering With You (4 Annies)
Documentary
American Factory (PGA, DGA, BAFTA, won IDA- directing, ACE Eddie, WOn CinemaEye) The Cave (PGA, DGA) Honeyland (PGA, DGA)
Apollo 11 (PGA, BAFTA, Ace Eddie) For Sama (PGA, BAFTA, won IDA)
Not Guessed: Edge of Democracy
Spoilers
One Child Nation (PGA, DGA)
Advocate (PGA)
The Great Hack (BAFTA)
Maiden (DGA)
Midnight Family (won the IDA for Editing)
I wish Aquarela was getting more love.
Foreign
So... this is bizarrely tricky, because Parasite and Pain & Glory are pretty sure things, but then pretty much all the precursors have been nominating things that didn't make the shortlist, so.... ??? Parasite (GG, BAFTA, Indie, NBR) Pain & Glory Les Miserables (CCA, Indie, GG)
Atlantics (CCA, NBR)
Beanpole. Why not. I hear good things, and Russia has a good track record.
Not guessed: Corpus Christie ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Spoilers Honeyland (unless this gets a bump from the overlap with documentary?)
The Painted Bird
I literally have heard nothing about the three eastern European ones, so I can't imagine them getting in. Whither Monos? Invisible Life? Not to mention all those that didn't qualify for their country noms: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Transit, the Farewell, Ash is Purest White, etc. etc.
Cinematography
1917.
Oh, there will be others? Fine:
Ford v. Ferrari (guild, BAFTA) Irishman (guild, BAFTA) Joker (guild, BAFTA) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (guild)
Spoilers The Lighthouse (guild - spotlight nom, Indie, BAFTA). I'd love for this to get in.
Midsommar (Indie)
Portrait of a Lady on Fire (won NSFC, NYFC, LAFC)/Atlantics (won NSFC) - both Calire Mathon
Little Women (NSFC runner-up)
Parasite (no precursors, but if it over-performs)
Monos and Honey Boy also got spotlight noms from the guild. Monos is beautifully shot.
Costumes
Dolemite is my Name (Guild - P, won CCA) JoJo (Guild - P, BAFTA) Once Upon a Time (Guild - P, CCA, BAFTA) Little Women (CCA, BAFTA, lots of press)
Rocketman (Guild - P, CCA)
Not guessed: Joker. Obviously wildly overperforming with the most nods
Spoilers
Downton Abbey (guild - P, CCA) The Irishman (CCA, BAFTA)
Judy (BAFTA, Brit Indie)
Knives Out (Guild - C, sweater!)
Hustlers (Guild - C)
As with production design, the nods tend to go toward the guild period nominations, rather than the contemporary or fantasy noms.
Makeup/Hair
So there are gonna be 5 noms this go around ?!?!?! Bombshell (Won the guild for contemporary makeup, contemporary hair, and fx - prosthetics done by Kazu Hiro, who won last year, won the CCA, BAFTA nom)
Dolemite (Guild nom - period makeup, period hair, CCA) Joker - (Won the guild for period makeup, nominated for contemporary hair (?!), CCA nom, BAFTA nom)
Rocketman (3 guild noms, CCA, BAFTA)
Once Upon a Time (2 guild noms, CCA)
Not guessed: Maleficent
Spoilers Judy (CCA, BAFTA)
Downton Abbey (Won guild - period hair, nom - period makeup) 1917 (BAFTA)
Little Women and Maleficent are the only others on the shortlist, but neither has any precursors)
Production Design
Once Upon a Time (won CCA, BAFTA, ADG - P) 1917 (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA) JoJo Rabbit (ADG - P, BAFTA) Irishman (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Joker (ADG - P, CCA, BAFTA)
Spoilers
Ford v. Ferrari (ADG - P) Parasite (ADG - C, CCA, the best house. But Oscars often want more locales)
Downton Abbey (CCA)
Knives Out (ADG - C)
Generally period noms are worth more than contemporary or fantasy.
Visual Effects
Alita Avengers Endgame
Gemini Man Star Wars 1917
Spoilers
Terminator Dark Fate Irishman Lion King
Cats made the shortlist, y'all. Don't take the Oscars too seriously.
Score
Joker (Gudnadottir; BAFTA, CCA, GG) Little Women (Desplat; BAFTA, CCA, GG) 1917 (Thomas Newman; BAFTA, CCA, GG) Marriage Story (Randy Newman; CCA, GG)
Motherless Brooklyn (Pemberton; GG)
Spoilers
Us (Abels; CCA) Star Wars (Williams)
JoJo (Giacchino)
I'd really love to see Mica Levi's Monos. I also LOVE that The Dø made the shortlist for I Lost My Body, and it would be thrilling for an animated film to get in (they won the LAFC). Nicholas Britell is (deservedly!) having a moment, but I think The King is too derided to score here.
Song
Glasgow - Wild Rose (Won CCA (it was a tie). I'm rooting for this one - it was the best part of the film, plus: Mary Steenburgen! Jessie Buckley!) (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again - Rocketman (Won GG & CCA; Elton John) Into the Unknown - Frozen (GG, CCA nom; Let it Go team - plus, the chance for Adele Dazeem to sing again!) Spirit - Lion King (GG, CCA nom; Beyonce) Stand Up - Harriet (GG, CCA nom; Cynthia Erivo)
Not Guessed: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away - Toy Story 4
Ford v. Ferrari Joker Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
Irishman
Not guessed: Ad Astra
The above are the CAS guid noms
Spoilers 1917
Star Wars
I hesitate to even say it, but mixing often skews toward musicals so... we could theoretically see a Cats nom. But I'm guessing any tech category will be tarred by the rest of the disaster
Sound - Editing
Joker - 3 guild noms Ford v. Ferrari - 2 guild noms Once Upon a Time - 3 guild noms
Avengers Endgame - 2 guild noms
Rocketman - 2 guild noms
In the Absence (Cinemaeye, IDA nom, CCA, DocNYC)
Ghosts of Sugarland (Cinemaeye, Doc NYC) Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you're a girl) (IDA winner, DocNYC, BAFTA) St. Louis Superman (Cinemaeye, IDA shortlist, DocNYC)
Stay Close (Cinemaeye, DocNYC)
Not Guessed: Walk Run Cha-Cha (literally the only one without a single precursor)
Spoilers
The Nightcrawlers (IDA nom, DocNYC) Life Overtakes Me (Cinemaeye)
After Maria (IDA nom)
Fire in Paradise (DocNYC)
Short Live
Brotherhood
The Christmas Gift (EFA winner)
Sometimes I think About Dying Saria
Refugee
Spoilers
Little Hands
Miller & Son Nefta Football Club The Neighbors' Window A Sister
??? Basically there are never any precursors here, as opposed to docs.
Short Animated
Hair Love
He Can't Live Without Cosmos Kitbull Sister
Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days (Annie nom)
Spoilers:
Hors Piste (this was widely available and could make it, but... I disliked it and the first We Can't Live Without Cosmos was so good, I'm hoping the second follows) [Ed: awww. No Cosmos.] Dcera Memorable
Mind my Mind
Physics of Sorrow
Well, I didn't really try to do this this year, and as I've seen about 100 fewer films, I've seen 2 fewer than last year (40 in total). But in the interest of clearing out my watchlist on Letterboxd:
Hail Satan? - Penny Lane - 4.5 stars. This is hilarious. It's so good.
The Farewell - Lulu Wang - 4.5 stars. So lovely. I'm rooting for Oscars.
The Souvenir - Joanna Hogg - 4.5 stars. I'm not done with the year yet, but I'm sure this will be in my top 5. Stunningly beautiful
Anthropocene: The Human Epoch - Jennifer Baichwal (co-dir) - 4.5 stars. Jaw-dropping cinematography from around the world
High Life - Claire Denis - 4 stars. I think I'm still processing this.
The Nightingale - Jennifer Kent. Ditto
Booksmart - Olivia Wilde - 4 stars. Very cute - Kaitlyn Dever and Billie Lourd are so great.
The Seer and the Unseen - Sara Dosa - 4 stars. This was lovely - and I loved the questions it raises about faith and belief.
Captain Marvel - Anna Boden (Co-dir) - 3.5 stars. Garbage needle drop! Top Gun! Ben Mendelssohn! Goose!
Late Night - Nisha Ganatra - 3.5 stars. I liked this way more than I was expecting to. Emma Thompson is a treasure.
Core of the World - Natalya Meshchaninova - 3.5 stars
Hustlers - Lorene Scafaria - 3.5 stars. Constance Wu doesn't totally work for me, but there's a lot to enjoy here.
Little Women - Greta Gerwig - 3 stars. This was disappointing to me because I LOVE Lady Bird. But Florence Pugh and Eliza Scanlen aside, the Gillian Armstrong version is so much better.
The Little Comrade - Moonika Siimets - 3 stars. I forgot this was this year! An interesting companion piece to JoJo Rabbit.
When I'm a Moth - Magdalena Zyzak - 2.5 stars. The lead actress is good, the Japanese actors are good, and there are some beautiful shots, but this is too meandering to really work.
Shorts:
Ritual in Transfigured Time - Maya Deren - 5 stars
Lost World - Kalyanee Mam - 5 stars (I quite liked this and it's online!)
Cold Pudding Settles Love - Urszula Palusińska - 5 stars (I fucking love this animated short. It's SO WEIRD)
Enforcement Hours - Paloma Martinez - 4.5 stars. Incredibly well edited film about an SF immigrant hotline. I thought this was a big step up from Crisanto Street (which I also enjoyed)
Meshes of the Afternoon - Maya Deren - 4 stars
The Very Eye of Night - Maya Deren - 4 stars
Brotherhood - Meryam Joobeur - 4 stars. On the shortlist for the Oscars
Fuck You - Anette Sidor - 4 stars
Now and There, Here and Then - Sun Park - 4 stars
Traces with Elikem - Airana Gerstein - 4 stars
Confidence Game - Kathleen Quillian - 4 stars
At Land - Maya Deren - 3.5 stars
Night and Day - Emma Matthews (co-dir) - 3.5 stars (obviously I only saw part of the 24 hours...)
Don't You Forget About Me - Lydia Ricci - 3.5 stars
Bless You! - Paulina Ziółkowska - 3.5 stars
I'm OK - Elizabeth Hobbs - 3.5 stars
Fast Horse - Alexandra Lazarowich - 3.5 stars
Life Overtakes Me - Kristine Samuelson (co-dir) - 3.5 stars. On the Oscar short doc shortlist.
Edgecombe - Crystal Kayiza - 3.5 stars
Mixed Signals - Courtney Stephens - 3.5 stars
That Woman - Sandra Davis - 3.5 stars
Mitya's Love - Svetlana Filippova - 3 stars
The Labyrinth - Laura Huertas Millán - 3 stars
The Slows - Nicole Perlman - 2.5 stars
Pelourinho, They Don’t Really Care About Us - Akosua Adoma Owusu - 2.5 stars
