2024 Oscar Nom Predictions

So, much like last year, I missed the Oscar noms. This time because I was in Africa. That said, my work *has* been so busy since October of '23 that I am still trying to catch up on both the race and the last two years of films. I considered stopping the tradition this year, but the fact is that I still really enjoy my few regular blogs (oscar noms, oscars, my faves, and my annual playlist (still to come this year because, again: Africa.)) So I have managed to pretty well avoid the oscar news for the last three weeks, but I will note places where I think I've been spoiled (mostly best actress). However, there could again be a case like Ryan Gosling last year where I think I've been spoiled in one direction but misinterpreted a headline for trying to look away so fast.

2023 (82/120 (68%); 107/120 (89%)) 

2022 (91/120 (75.8%); 114/120 (95%))

2021 (79/120 (65.8%); 108/120 (90%))

2020 (84/118 (71%); 110/118 (93%))

2019 (88/124 (71%); 113/124 (91%))

2018 (91/121 (75%); 113/121 (93.4%))

2017 (90/122 (73.8%); 118/122 (96.7%))

I think I'm going to change up the formatting and put correct in bold purple (or blue for spoilers), and anything totally missed in italic red. Color commentary after the noms in burgundy. 

Total: 89/120. Not bad for being out of the loop! (74.2%) Third best!

With Spoilers: 110/120. Meh. Middle of the road for me. (91.67%) Fifth best.

Perfect Categories: Best Supporting Actor, Foreign Film, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design

Missed: 5 shorts, the Wild Robot for Sound, Elton John for Song, Alien for VFX (whoops. I got cocky), A Complete Unknown for Costume (? scarves?), and I'm Still Here for Best Picture (what?!)

Best Picture

I'm assuming 10 here, and it feels a little more open than the last couple of years (but maybe just because I'm less in the loop):

Definite:

1. A Complete Unknown (PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, NBR top 10, GG, AFI top 10)

2. Anora (PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, NBR top 10, GG-c, NSFC runner up, gotham, indie, won LAFC, won BritIndie, AFI top 10)

3. Emilia Perez (PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, won GG-c, AFI top 10, won EFA)

4. Conclave (PGA, BAFTA, BAFTA-brit, SAG, CCA, NBR top 10, GG, AFI top 10)

5. Wicked (PGA, SAG, CCA, won NBR, GG-c, AFI top 10)

6. The Brutalist (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, won GG, runner up LAFC, won NYFCC, AFI top 10)

Likely:

7. The Substance (PGA, CCA, GG-c, indie, EFA)

8. Dune pt II (PGA, CCA, GG, AFI top 10)

Guessing:

9. September 5 (PGA, GG)

10. A Real Pain (did I end up picking the PGAs? oops. Apparently.) (PGA, CCA-c, NBR top 10, GG-c, AFI top 10)

Spoilers

Nickel Boys (CCA, GG, won NSFC, indie, AFI top 10) (I feel like I heard Nickel Boys got skunked. I think?)

Sing Sing (CCA, NBR top 10, indie, AFI top 10)

Queer (NBR top 10)

Challengers (GG-c, gotham)

Babygirl (NBR top 10, gotham)

I'm Still Here. WOW. It has been a minute since we've had a left-field Best Picture nom! I'm guessing this got in due to the subject matter, as I had no precursors for it outside of foreign. 

Also - Yay! Glad Nickel Boys made it in. I'm fascinated by what felt like a lack of a campaign around September 5, which generally seems like oscar catnip based on the subject. 

Editing

Anora (BAFTA, CCA, ACE-c)

Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, ACE)

Dune (BAFTA, CCA, ACE)

Emilia Perez (BAFTA, ACE)

Challengers (CCA, ACE-c)

Spoilers

Kneecap (BAFTA, won BritIndie)

September 5 (this has no momentum from what I can tell, but: indie, CCA, and won LAFC (tie)

Substance (Ace-c)

Brutalist (indie)

Wicked (ACE-c)

(Furiosa is flashy and has a guild nod, but I think Substance, Wicked and Brutalist have more momentum.)

It is so weird to me that Conclave got passed over in Director and Cinematography, but made it into Editing. I can't tell how the Academy feels about it at all. (Also: I thought the editing of Challengers was a mess, but I thought it might get the non-best picture flashy spot)

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo - Wicked (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG-C)

Demi Moore - Substance (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Won GG-C, gotham, Indie, Runner up LAFC)

Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez (I'm pretty sure I've been spoiled on this, but also SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG-C)

Mikey Madison - Anora (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG-C, runner up NSFC, Gotham, Indie, NBR bkth)

Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths (BAFTA, CCA, won NFSC, gotham, won NYFCC, won LAFC, won Brit Indie)

Spoilers

Pamela Anderson (SAG, GG, gotham) The SAGs are usually the best predictor, but I feel like the BAFTAs sometimes help show the European skew since the Academy was opened up, and she didn't have as clean a sweep this year as the other SAG noms. I think she's the leading spoiler, but I suppose we could also put in:

Angelina Jolie (CCA, GG). I'm really sorry this campaign didn't work better. At least both Natalie Portman and Kristen Stewart got noms for their films. 

Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here (won GG, runner up LAFC)

Nicole Kidman (GG, gotham, won NBR)

Saoirse Ronan (BAFTA, gotham, brit indie)

Boo for Marianne! I think I saw a precursor article that said if she didn't get a nod, it shows how broken the Oscars are. That said, I love how international they are becoming!

Best Actor

Adrien Brody - Brutalist (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, won GG, runner up NSFC, gotham, won NYFCC)

Colman Domingo - Sing Sing (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG, won NSFC, won Gotham, Indie)

Daniel Craig - Queer (SAG, CCA, GG, won NBR, EFA)

Ralph Fiennes - Conclave (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG, runner up NSFC, EFA)

Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG)

Spoilers

I suppose Sebastian Stan? Although I feel like he splits his own votes. He was nommed for a BAFTA, Indie and GG for the apprentice, and won a GG-C for A Different Man.

Hugh Grant is probably the only other real spoiler outside of something left field, as he got a BAFTA, CCA, and GG-C for Heretic. 

Out side of that, the options are: Jesse Eisenberg, Glen Powell, Abou Sangare. Maybe Keith Kupferer? Jesse Plemons? 

(Isn't it nice that so many more women get meaty roles these days? I didn't even mention Amy Adams or June Squibb or Renate Reinsve or Kate Winslet or Zendaya) (I mean - obviously there are others, but even those above are pretty far out of the conversation, I feel.)

Awww boo. I heard such good things about Daniel Craig in that role (although my guess is the film falling apart in the back half probably didn't help.) Plus I'm guessing a fair few folks wanted to needle trump. 

Best Supporting Actress (I did get spoiled on this category while traveling back to the US, but (clearly) only remembered Ariana Grande)

Ariana Grande - Wicked (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG)

Danielle Deadwyler (SAG, CCA, Indie, gotham)

Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, won GG)

Jamie Lee Curtis (SAG, BAFTA) It is WEIRD that she had no precursors and then she got the big two at the end

Isabella Rossellini - Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, GG). My thinking here is that Conclave seems like a juggernaut. So does the Brutalist (Felicity, below), but I feel like I've heard more about Isabella.

Spoilers

Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown (SAG) It is SO WEIRD that is her only nom, that even though it's the SAG, and the actors are the largest branch...

Felicity Jones - Brutalist (BAFTA, GG)

Selena Gomez - Emilia Perez (BAFTA, GG)

Margaret Qualley - Substance (CCA, GG)

Aunjane Ellis-Taylor (runner up NSFC, CCA)

This category is MUCH more spread out than the others. Elle Fanning won the NBR, Danielle is the only of the Indie noms with a chance, Michelle Austin won the NSFC for Hard Truths. Also I just want to flag that I love the gothams for recognizing Lily Collias as a breakthrough for Good One. 

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain (SAG, BAFTA, won NSFC, CCA, won GG, gotham, indie, won NBR, won LAFC (tie), won NYFCC. I mean, this is his to lose)

Yura Borisov - Anora (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG, gotham, indie, won LAFC (tie)). I love this performance SO MUCH.

Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown (SAG, BAFTA, runner up NSFC, CCA, GG)

Here's where I get quite torn. I think Guy Pearce (Brutalist) because BAFTA, runner up NSFC, CCA, GG, gotham, plus the Brutalist momentum. But he didn't get the SAG. I also fully acknowledge I'm biased toward him because I love him. 

And then I think Jeremy Strong because SAG, BAFTA, GG. It just *feels* like it's a Succession victory lap, no? (Then again, that won McConaughey the oscar, so.)

Spoilers

Jonathan Bailey - Wicked (SAG). Like Monica Barbaro - SO WEIRD he was only nominated for a SAG! He's pretty beloved, and Wicked may have more momentum than A Complete Unknown (although that's been picking up speed...) It just feels weird that even being British he didn't get a BAFTA nom.

Clarence Maclin (BAFTA, CCA, won gotham, Indie, runner up LAFC) I hope he spoils!

That's basically it. But I'll say Adam Pearson (runner up NSFC, gotham, Indie, runner up LAFC), Denzel Washington (CCA, GG, famous), and Brandon Wilson (gotham - won bkth) for the last three. I'm 99% sure Nickel Boys is going to be skunked, perhaps Aunjane aside. (I haven't seen it yet and have heard the central conceit doesn't really work, but I like that something experimental is in the conversation, I know it's beloved among a few, and I still really want to see Hale County.) But that's pretty much it. All the other men who have been nominated have been things like breakthrough or the Brit Indies. The only remaining major award is Karren Karagulian for the Indie, and folks will vote for Yura instead. 

Director

Brady Corbet - Brutalist (DGA, CCA, BAFTA, won GG, indie)

Edward Berger - Conclave (DGA, CCA, BAFTA, GG)

Sean Baker - Anora (DGA, CCA, BAFTA, runner up NSFC, GG, gotham, indie, runner up LAFC)

Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez (DGA, CCA, BAFTA, GG, won EFA)

And finally, I realize James Mangold is probably the smart fifth pick, but I cannot with five men, and Coralie Fargeat (Substance) did get the BAFTA nod, in addition to the CCA and GG, so fingers crossed. (Also: I LOVE Revenge, so.)

Spoilers

James Mangold - A Complete Unknown (DGA)

Denis Villenueve - Dune (CCA, BAFTA)

RaMell Ross (CCA, runner up NSFC, won Gotham, won NYFCC)

Payal Kapadia (won NSFC, GG, gotham)

Jon Chu - Wicked (CCA)

Yay for Coralie making it in!! I really wonder what it means that A Complete Unknown beat Conclave, which felt like it had a lot of admirers. 

Original Screenplay

A Real Pain (WGA, BAFTA, won NSFC, CCA, GG)

Anora (WGA, BAFTA, runner up NSFC, CCA, GG)

Brutalist (WGA ineligible, BAFTA, CCA, GG)

Substance (WGA ineligible, BAFTA, CCA, GG)

Challengers (WGA, CCA)

Spoilers

September 5 (CCA, WGA ineligble)

Kneecap (BAFTA)

Civil War (WGA)

My Old Ass (WGA, indie)

Hard Truths (won NBR)

Adapted Screenplay

Nickel Boys (WGA, BAFTA, CCA, USC)

Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, won GG, USC)

A Complete Unknown (WGA, BAFTA, USC)

Sing Sing (WGA ineligble, BAFTA, CCA, USC, won NBR)

Emilia Perez (BAFTA, CCA, GG, won EFA)

Spoilers

The last one will probably be Emilia Perez, but I would be delighted if Hit Man made it in (WGA)

Dune pt. II (WGA, CCA)

Wicked (WGA, CCA)

Wild Robot (USC)

Room Next Door (EFA)

Animated

Flow (YAY!) (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, won GG, ACE, won NBR, Annie-indie, won NYFCC, won LAFC, won EFA, ADG, won AiF)

Inside Out 2 (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, GG, ACE, 7 Annie, ADG, VES, MPSE)

Moana 2 (PGA, GG, ACE, ADG, VES)

Wild Robot (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, GG, ACE, 10 Annie, ADG, VES, MPSE)

Wallace & Gromit (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, GG, ACE, 7 Annie, ADG, VES)

Spoilers

Memoir of a Snail (CCA, GG, Annie-indie, AiF special jury prize)

That Christmas (6 Annie)

Kung Fu Panda 4 (Annie)

Savages (EFA)

Mufasa (VES, MPSE)

Documentary

No Other Land (BAFTA, won NSFC, won IDA, won gotham, indie, won LAFC, won NYFCC, NBR Freedom of Expression award, won CinemaEye, won EFA)

Porcelain War (PGA, DGA, CinemaEye) (Also - the PGA noms this year were BONKERS)

Sugarcane (DGA, CCA, IDA, gothams, indie-bkth, won NBR, Cinemaeye)

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (DGA, runner up NSFC, IDA, gotham, indie, cinemaeye, EFA)

Daughters (DGA, BAFTA, CCA, cinemaeye)

Spoilers

Black Box Diaries (BAFTA, IDA, NBR top 5, Cinemaeye)

Dahomey (runner up NSFC, IDA, gotham, runner up LAFC, NBR top 5, cinemaeye, EFA)

Will & Harper (BAFTA, CCA, ACE, NBR top 5, Cinemaeye audience nom, mpse)

Hollywoodgate (DGA, cinemaeye prod nom)

Remarkable Life of Ibelin (CCA, IDA, won cinemaeye score)

I remain devastated Nocturnes was overlooked. And I still really want to see Pictures of Ghosts.

Foreign 

Emilia Perez (GG, BAFTA, CCA, EFA, mpse)

Seed of the Sacred Fig (GG, BAFTA, CCA, runner up NSFC, runner up LAFC, won NBR, EFA)

I'm Still Here (GG, BAFTA, CCA, NBR top 5)

Girl with the Needle. Maybe wishful thinking, but GG, NBR top 5, mpse.

Flow. Fingers crossed. (CCA, indie, 

Spoiler

Kneecap. This doesn't *feel* like an Oscar pick, but the BAFTA makes it feel like a very possible nom. ( CCA also)

Vermiglio (GG, EFA, gotham)

Santosh (NBR top 5)

Universal Language (top 5)

Armand (EFA bkth)

HELL YES FLOW! And Girl with the Needle!

Cinematography

Conclave (guild, BAFTA, CCA)

Nosferatu (guild, BAFTA, runner up NSFC, CCA, NBR)

The Brutalist (guild, BAFTA, runner up NSFC, CCA, runner up LAFC)

Dune pt II (guild, BAFTA, CCA)

Nickel Boys (Indies, won NSFC, won NYFCC, CCA, won LAFC)

Spoilers

Emilia Perez (BAFTA)

Wicked (Guild, CCA)

A Complete Unknown (guild)

Maria (guild)

Substance (won EFA)

Costume

Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, guild-C). Also, what?

Nosferatu (BAFTA, CCA, guild-P)

Wicked (BAFTA, CCA, guild-F)

Maria (CCA, guild-P)

And this is probably insane, but: Devil's Bath (won EFA)

Spoilers

Gladiator (CCA, guild-P)

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (guild-F)

Dune (guild-F, CCA)

Normally I'd say the guild period noms have the edge, but in this case, I'm thinking Emilia Perez and Substance just have a better chance than Furiosa and Saturday Night.

A Complete Unknown. Hmmm - I smell momentum. 

Makeup

Wicked (BAFTA, CCA, guild)

Nosferatu (BAFTA, CCA)

Substance (BAFTA, CCA, guild)

Spoilers

Dune pt 2 (BAFTA, CCA) If ever there were a year for 4...

Emilia Perez (BAFTA, guild)

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (CCA, guild)

A Different Man (CCA, guild)

Look - I am putting Emilia in since there are 5 noms. Which, you would think I would have remembered they moved to SIX YEARS AGO. (I googled to remind myself how many there were, and google said 3 most years, because AI is the fucking worst.)

Production Design

Brutalist (BAFTA, won LAFC, CCA, guild-P)

Dune (BAFTA, CCA, guild-F)

Nosferatu (BAFTA, CCA, guild-P)

Wicked (BAFTA, CCA, guild-F)

Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, guild-C)

Spoilers

Gladiator II (CCA, guild-P)

A Complete Unknown (guild-P)

Girl with the Needle (won EFA)

Furiosa (guild-F)

Blitz (LAFC runner up)

Visual Effects

Better Man (BAFTA, CCA, VES)

Dune (BAFTA, CCA, VES)

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (BAFTA, CCA, VES)

Wicked (BAFTA, CCA)

Gladiator (BAFTA, CCA)

Spoilers

Twisters (VES)

Civil War (won BritInie, VES-photoreal)

Mufasa (VES)

I'm not putting Alien or Deadpool. 

Whoops.

Score

Brutalist (BAFTA, guild, CCA, GG)

Emilia Perez (BAFTA, guild, CCA, GG)

Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, GG)

Challengers (CCA, won LAFC, won GG)

Wild Robot (BAFTA, CCA, GG)

Spoilers

Nosferatu (BAFTA)

Wicked (Guild)

That's it for nominations on the shortlist (sorry Queer isn't up for a double Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross.) So, knowing nothing about the scores for these, but I'll go Babygirl, Beetlejuice, and Gladiator. 

Boooooooo. What does the Academy have against Trent Reznor??? (I mean, besides the fact that they are all old.)

Song

The Journey - Six Triple Eight (Diane Warren. That's it. I'm never not guessing her again.) (but also guild nom)

El Mal - Emilia Perez (won GG, CCA)

Compress/Repress - Challengers (GG, CCA)

Kiss the Sky - Wild Robot (GG, CCA, guild)

Out of Oklahoma - Twisters (guild)

Spoilers

Mi Camino - Emilia Perez (GG, CCA)

Like a Bird - Sing sing (guild)

Harper and Will go West (CCA) (although will Oscars bump anything trans given current events?)

Sick in the Head - Kneecap

Beyond - Moana 2

Never Too Late - Elton John Never Too Late

(I do think Tell Me It's You has a strong chance - because: Lin Manuel, but I'm thinking Kneecap is a musical, and Moana was better received.)

Sound

Dune (BAFTA, CAS, MPSEx2)

Wicked (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE)

A Complete Unknown (CAS, MPSE)

Gladiator II (BAFTA, CAS)

Blitz (BAFTA)

Spoilers

Deadpool (CAS, MPSEx2)

Alien (CAS, MPSEx2)

Emilia Perez

Joker

The Wild Robot. What? (I mean, it was on the shortlist, but had no precursors. And when was the last time an animated film made sound?) (Soul. The answer is Soul.)

Short Doc

I Am Ready Warden (cinemaeye shortlist)

Incident (won cinemaeye)

A Swim Lesson (cinemaeye shortlist)

Makayla's Voice (cinemaeye shortlist)

Once Upon a Time in Ukraine (no precursors, but I figure the subject)

Spoilers

Instruments of a Beating Heart (cinemaeye shortlist, IDA)

Eternal Father (cinemaeye shortlist)

Only Girl in the Orchestra (cinemaeye shortlist)

Until he's back (IDA)

Planetwalker

Death by Numbers

Short Live

Crust

I'm Not a Robot

A Lien

Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Orange from Jaffa

Spoilers

Room Taken

Paris 70

Ice Cream Man

Clodagh

Masterpiece

Anuja

The Last Ranger

Short Animated

Beautiful Men (Annie)

Crab in the Pool (AiF special jury prize)

In the Shadow of the Cypress (Annie)

Wander to Wonder (Annie, BAFTA-brit, won AiF)

Au Revoir Mon Monde (I LOVED this one, so I'm pulling for it.)

Spoilers

Those in the know say Me, but I'm just hoping others felt the way I did about Au Revoir. 

The Wild-Tempered Clavier

The 21

A Bear Named Wojtek

Maybe Elephants

Magic Candies

Yuck!

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! Go. Watch. Enjoy. 

FtbbW - The Reincarnation

We're starting with this one, because it seems easiest to just play along with James on episode 300.

Favorite Remake:

Obviously the Departed is a great answer. I remember really loving 3:10 to Yuma, but I haven't rewatched it since it came out. I personally hold Gone in 60 Seconds near and dear to my heart as a trashy film I unabashedly love. Girl with a Dragon Tattoo is interesting, because I love Fincher, and so I love his version (your friend and mine: Enya!), but I remember thinking the original was better (mostly just for how Noomi played Lisbeth.) I love the most recent Emma. The 1994 Little Women is a contender. It feels a bit like cheating, because it's going off a beloved book, more than remaking an earlier film, but... it's the best version. The new Suspiria had some really interesting parts, and I liked it a lot, but I didn't think all of it completely worked. Clear honorable mentions: the Birdcage, Little Shop of Horrors, the Magnificent Seven, the Mummy, Ocean's 11, Thomas Crown Affair, and the Wizard of Oz. None of these have I seen the original to compare.

Out of all of those, I'm torn between Thomas Crown, which I love wholeheartedly, and Dragon Tattoo, where I've seen both. I think I'm going Dragon Tattoo, because it is Fincher being excellent, and I love the cinematography.  

Actor you would watch in anything:
Well, it's not Sam Rockwell, because I'm never going to watch his animated guinea pig movie. Christian Bale is a strong maybe. I'm not sure there's anything in his oeuvre I wouldn't watch. (This reminds me of an internet game a while back about an actor's rotten tomato range and whether your favorite had a spread as large as Karl Urban's.) 

Buster Keaton - I just don't know. Despite having seen 49 of his films, that's not quite a third of his output. (Ditto William Powell.) Shockingly not Rory Kinnear, because Count Arthur Strong was not for me (although that's tv). Andrew Scott has been in some weird ones. Cillian Murphy is also probably a strong maybe. Even in not great films, he's generally pretty interesting. Ditto Ben Whishaw (hey! I have seen his two lowest rated films - Bad Behaviour and the Tempest - so that's probably a pretty good pick.) I haven't seen enough Daniel Day-Lewis, but he's probably close up there. 

I love Mia Wasikowska a lot, and if I had to pick a favorite actress, she's the first that comes to mind. But there are a couple of her films I'll probably never see. I'm never going to watch Saoirse Ronan's teen flick. Natalie, Cate, and Kate each have a couple I'm not interested in. I've seen most of Eliza Scanlen's output so far and I find her really compelling. I'm drawn toward things with Thomasin McKenzie, because I really like her. Tilda is a strong maybe, but I feel like she has a bunch of obscure art films that are probably hard to find. 

So Christian Bale is probably the runner up, but as of right now: Jessie Buckley probably. I think I'd watch anything for her. Sure, it helps a bit that she's earlier in her career, and that she started so strong that she's had her pick of interesting projects. But I think her. (Hilariously, and I've only just thought of this, their next movie is together.)

What is the film you changed your mind about between viewings: 

There are a couple of films where I wasn't sure how I felt the first screening so I went back for a second time before assigning a rating - Oppenheimer and CMBYN come to mind. But I don't think that was changing my mind so much as making it up. This one is hard! Partly, I very rarely have time for rewatches of things that aren't favorites. 

I suppose another would be a film I don't feel I could still watch because the circumstances of the film have changed. So I don't know if I'll love Everybody Wants Some!! as much now knowing about the lead's domestic abuse (although the supporting characters were always the better part of that film.)

I'm sure there are some where a review changed my mind somewhat - gave me a different angle to consider, although I can't think of a specific example offhand. Maybe I'm Thinking of Ending Things? Actually, my friend Leo said some things about EEAAO after we went to see it which made me like it better. 

And then there are those that probably only hit a particular way at a particular time. Seeing Nine Days at a certain point in the pandemic is probably not a replicable emotional experience. Or seeing something on the big screen with a crowd vs. a home viewing can change the experience (the Black Pirate, Safety Last!, Wanted) Similarly, there are some where you can never have that first time experience back. Beast is one I think of for that (literally for the first half of my first viewing I thought I might be watching a werewolf film.) Sixth Sense, Usual Suspects, the Prestige, Parasite, Japanese Story all fall in that category. And I might actually go with Their Finest for that type of change between viewings, although I actually haven't rewatched it yet because I know the experience will differ. 

So - and I recognize this is entirely cheating - but I'm going to say the NTLive of Frankenstein, where Johnny Lee Miller and Benedict Cumberbatch swapped places, because one night (JLM as the creature) was markedly better than the other. 

Favorite Documentary:

Honorary Mentions: The Act of Killing, Leviathan, Aquarela, Anthropocene, Gunda, City Hall, Man with the Movie Camera, Microcosmos, Free Solo, Dick Johnson is Dead, Bloody Nose Empty Pockets, Let it Fall, El Mar La Mar, Hail Satan?, After Antarctica, Minute Bodies, and Nocturnes, which I saw at Sundance this year and ADORED. 

Special mention to Haulout which still should have won the doc short oscar. I love that film. 

But, obviously, it has to be: Jane

Favorite Sequel:

As James said, Paddington 2 is perfect. Other honorable mentions: Matrix Resurrections, Spider-Man 2, Rescuers Down Under, MI: Fallout, Return to Oz, Aliens, X2, 10 Cloverfield Lane, Bride of Frankenstein, The Look of Silence, and The Souvenir Part II. I need to rewatch Army of Darkness before I could add it. I adored Across the Spiderverse, but it ends on a cliffhanger. Top Gun Maverick is too much propaganda to be my pick. Apur Sansar would probably be the best pick (and I do love it and it is brilliant), but my heart says Mad Max Fury Road, only narrowly beating out Batman Returns.

Favorite film by a director you don't normally like:

I mean, Newsies would also work for this one (see below), given that I have no interest in the rest of Kenny Ortega's output (Hocus Pocus is whatever and High School Musical/Disney crap/Michael Jackson is all pretty icky.) Dogma works - I've seen three other Kevin Smith films and they were not for me. Weirdly, Soderbergh comes close for me - I've enjoyed three of his films, and have been mixed to negative on seven others. Bringing up Baby might work - I haven't loved the other Hawks films I've seen (although I probably need to rewatch To Have and Have Not.) The Man from Uncle kind of works, although I found Armie Hammer off-putting even before his scandal. But it's mostly fun and well done in a way I haven't been able to get into with the other three films of Ritchie's I've seen. 

I think it's probably Dogma on this one (although I haven't seen it since college). Poor Linda Fiorentino. She should have had more of a career.

What's your favorite film that you love that you get stick about: 

I've definitely been given grief about the new Emma. The one that stands out to me is Newsies. Objectively it is bad, but it was such a cultural phenomenon for a slice of women my age (shout out to Sarah Marshall's excellent You're Wrong About and You Are Good podcasts on the subject.) So, look. Do I understand Robert Duvall's acting choices in this film? Nope. But I'm always gonna love it:

Single Sexiest Moment in all Cinema:

Ugh - I feel like my brain has gone absolutely blank on this one and there are some great indie/foreign ones I'm missing.  So I feel like you've mostly got a couple of categories. Great kisses, like the Atonement goodbye, the Brokeback Mountain reunion, or I seem to remember there's good ones in Dance of the 41, Far from the Madding Crowd, the Iron Mask, and Bones and All. The best one is the end of Maurice. For sex scenes, you've got the ones in God's Own Country, Beast, All of Us Strangers, Last of the Mohicans, Crimson Peak, the Handmaiden, Secretary, Shakespeare in Love and, as I recall, Mothering Sunday. And then in sort of other, you've got things like Clark Gable undressing in It Happened One Night, the chapstick in Decision to Leave, the changing room in the Cameraman, the piano in Stoker, and Andre Holland smoking in Moonlight (and the rest of the diner scene.) Some of these I'd probably want to rewatch to make a definitive call, but I'm leaning toward Maurice, All of Us Strangers (recency effect?), Stoker, Beast (the forest scene doesn't seem to be online, but there are bits of it in this), and Moonlight. (I'm sure there's a specific scene in God's Own Country, but I can't pick it out at the moment. 

Let's go with Maurice:

What is the film that means the most to you as a family:

I mean - a Muppet Christmas Carol is beloved, as were Fantasia and Totoro. My brother and I used to do voices from Rescuers Down Under and Fievel Goes West (Howdy Howdy Howdy and I'm Blind I'm in PAIN, respectively.) Labyrinth and the Dark Crystal were favorites. Halloween was Grinch Night. I have a very clear memory of going to The Lion King opening weekend with my brother and dad. I'm not sure there was one movie beloved by all four of us, but I think I'll go with The Wrong Trousers here, because my mother definitely still does "CHEESE" regularly. 

What is the film that is as good or better than the book:

The Hours. I remember this anecdote from my Queer Theories class in college: when the screenwriter (David Hare) met with Michael Cunningham, Michael said, 'I wrote the best book I could. You write the best screenplay you can.' He acknowledged they are different media and that a good film adaptation shouldn't be slavish if it is to excel in its own medium. So I've always thought that is the best example. 

(Honorable mentions: Robin Hood, Last of the Mohicans, Wild, Jurassic Park, Where the Wild Things Are, V for Vendetta, Interview with the Vampire, Little Women (1994), Brokeback Mountain, Stardust, Secret of NIMH, Muppet Christmas Carol. (I obviously love Adaptation, but I've never read the book, so.))

What's your favorite score:

Last of the Mohicans. Best movie score ever. No other correct answer. 

What is your single favorite setpiece in a film that isn't a classic overall:

Bad Royale is a good one, although I think it's hard not to pick the singing/digging/windows bit. This is a tough question, because my mind leaps to either musical numbers or one-ers. Bond openers/MI stunts are good. Or No Man's Land in WW, to stick with action. (Or I don't think Bullitt quite qualifies as a classic.) Big dance numbers probably qualify, but just a good musical scene (a la Stoker), probably isn't considered a set-piece. Ditto the argument in Indignation. 

It's so hard not to think of classics! (The T-rex, or the elevators in Cabin in the Woods, to stick with Drew Goddard. Worst Person in the World! RRR! Carrie! Days of Heaven! the General! Napoleon!) The Great Ziegfeld is probably on the line. It's not great, but it did win best picture, in part because of the cake set piece. (Can the climb in Free Solo be considered a setpiece? I mean - it was logistically complex.) I'm excited to see the Furiosa scene that took 78 days to shoot.

The mirror dance in Last Night in Soho is pretty good. Or the zombie sword fight in Stardust. The earthquake in San Francisco. Will Tick Tick Boom ever be considered a classic? Because Sunday is definitely up there (with pandemic restrictions layering in the logistical complexity). Trinity flying in Matrix Resurrections is pretty great. There are a couple of great set pieces in M. You can't use the one-ers in Atonement or Children of Men (classics), but the Vast of Night has a pretty good one. Tár's is pretty great. The opening dance in Climax. The drive in Licorice Pizza. Quicksilver in Xmen, although I'd prefer to pick something with more practical effects. The final chase in Revenge. I think this question is leaning more toward action than a musical number, so I think I'm going to pick the staircase scene in Atomic Blonde. (My most liked review on LB is just praising that scene.)

What is your favorite credits sequence:

Honorable mentions: Vox Lux, Boy, Deadpool, CMBYN (although there's an interesting video essay that looks at why the ending of Portrait works better than CMBYN precisely because the film ends), Deadpool 2 (I mean - it didn't make up for the fridging, but...), What We Do in the Shadows, Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (the best part of that film, other than Ben Browder), Too Many Cooks, and Se7en. Also a plug for going through some interesting picks here: https://www.artofthetitle.com/features/ 

My knee jerk reaction was Watchmen, which is a pretty obvious answer. Then I thought maybe Holy Grail, because I remember how thrilling and hilarious those were in sixth grade. I may have also said 'she was carving her initials on the møøse' to my friend Jess Copi like three months ago. I think I'll go with Watchmen though since it sets up the needed backstory (that said, how much of the credits do folks who have never read the book get? Do they pick up the kid is Rorschach?)

What is the film that weirded you out the most:

I mean - there were the ones that gave me nightmares as a kid: Critters and Watership Down. Films that I have found upsetting would be ones like Bullhead, Snowtown, the Last House on the Left, Once Were Warriors (my English teacher had me watch it at 13, and look - I was precocious - but that was a bit much for me at the time), the Tribe, Se7en (sloth. ugh.) and Requiem for a Dream. I mean, we all know the real answer here is Cats, but I'm going to go with The Strange Thing About the Johnsons.

What is your all time favorite line from a film:

A few favorites:

"Sometimes you make the honest mistake of making a mask out of crackers and a duck eats your face" - What We Do in the Shadows

"But it's what I'm going to do." - Wonder Woman

"I would die for her, I would kill for her. Either way what bliss." - Addams Family

"A life without despair is a life without hope. Holding these two ideas in our head is life itself" - First Reformed

"I lost my virginity in what I thought was a park but it turned out to be a graveyard and now the ghost spirits live inside my eggs waiting to be reborn" - Booksmart

"I love this man beyond measure and reason. He’s not my ‘boyfriend.’ He’s all and he’s more." - The Old Guard

"Most people are other people. Their thoughts are someone else's opinions. Their lives a mimicry. Their passions a quotation." - I'm Thinking of Ending Things 

"You know the quickest way of getting rid of me?" "Tie you up. Dump you in that river." - Miss Fisher

“A friend is a gift you give yourself.” – Nightcrawler

"History isn't here yet. It's coming, but maybe this time we can take it on our own terms." - First Cow

"Do it." - Zola

“You want to be people? Let’s be people.” - Bones & All

"You must tell me all about yourself, in every detail, but oh, so slowly, so very slowly, so that it takes a very, very long time." - Scarlet Pimpernel

I'm not going to put anything from Angels here because it feels like cheating. It's cliche now, but "I wish I knew how to quit you" is a great line. Same with "Carpe Diem." And "You will never age for me, nor fade, nor die."

But my gut reaction is:

One Film to Take With You:

I mean - this is a weird one. Is this the one film you would take with you to be reincarnated (how James took it - and Past Lives was a great pick). I feel like it can't be favorite film because that's episode 1. So I guess for reincarnation I'm leaning toward something here like Koyaanisqatsi, Le quattro volte, Cloud Atlas, Dead Again, Only Lovers Left Alive, Wild, the New World, or Man with a Movie Camera. Maybe it should be a Buster Keaton just to get that in early for a new life? 

But I think I'm going with: World of Tomorrow. 

Oscars Aftermath

Updates 3/10 in bold. 

18/23. Not great, not the worst. 23/23 with spoilers. Super thrilled I called animated, costume, and doc short. On the other end: animated short and Emma Stone pulling a complete Anne Hathaway. 

Given that I've been covering two jobs since October, I'm not really on top  of the race, but here we go. Past years: 2022: 16 (yikes), 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21?

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall - spoiler

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer - will win, did win

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Best Director

Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)

Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) - will win, did win

Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) - spoiler

Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Best Actress

Annette Bening (Nyad)

Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) - will win

Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

Emma Stone (Poor Things) - spoiler, did win BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) - spoiler

Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) - will win, did win

Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)

Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Robert Downey, Jr. (Oppenheimer) - will win, did win

Ryan Gosling (Barbie) - spoiler

Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) - spoiler

Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

America Ferrera (Barbie)

Jodie Foster (Nyad)

Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) - will win, did win

Best International Feature Film

Io Capitano (Matteo Garrone, Italy)

Society of the Snow (J.A. Bayona, Spain) - Spoiler

The Teachers’ Lounge (İlker Çatak, Germany)

The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer, United Kingdom) - will win, did win

Perfect Days (Wim Wenders, Japan)

Best Cinematography

Ed Lachman (El Conde)

Matthew Libatique (Maestro)

Rodrigo Prieto (Killers of the Flower Moon) - spoiler

Robbie Ryan (Poor Things)

Hoyte van Hoytema (Oppenheimer) - will win, did win

Best Adapted Screenplay

Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig (Barbie)

Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Cord Jefferson (American Fiction) - will win, did win

Tony McNamara (Poor Things) - spoiler

Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Best Original Screenplay

Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik (May December)

Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer (Maestro)

Arthur Harari and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) - will win, did win

David Hemingson (The Holdovers)

Celine Song (Past Lives) - spoiler

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron - will win, did win

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Spoiler

Best Visual Effects

The Creator; Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould - Spoiler

Godzilla Minus One; Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima  - will win, did win

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3; Theo Bialek, Stephanie Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot & Guy Williams

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One; Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould

Napoleon; Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould

Best Editing

Jennifer Lame (Oppenheimer) - will win, did win

Yorgos Mavropsaridis (Poor Things)

Thelma Schoonmaker (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Laurent Sénéchal (Anatomy of a Fall) - spoiler

Kevin Tent (The Holdovers)

Best Production Design

Ruth De Jong and Claire Kaufman (Oppenheimer)

Jack Fisk and Adam Willis (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer (Barbie) - will win

Elli Griff and Arthur Max (Napoleon)

Shona Heath, Szusza Mihalek, and James Price (Poor Things) - Spoiler, did win

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, and Ahou Mofid (Oppenheimer)

Mark Coulier, Nadia Stacey, and Josh Weston (Poor Things) - Spoiler, did win

Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro, and Lori McCoy-Bell (Maestro) - will win

Karen Hartley and Suzi Battersby (Golda)

Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse Ribé (Society of the Snow)

Best Costume Design

Jacqueline Durran (Barbie) - spoiler

Ellen Mirojnick (Oppenheimer)

Holly Waddington (Poor Things) - Will win, Should win, did win

Jacqueline West (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Janty Yates and David Crossman (Napoleon)

Best Sound

The Creator; Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic

Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One; Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

The Zone of Interest; Johnnie Burn and Tarn Willers - spoiler, did win

Oppenheimer; Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell, and Gary A. Rizzo - will win

Maestro; Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder, and Dean Zupancic

Best Documentary Feature

Bobi Wine: The People’s President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters - spoiler

To Kill a Tiger

20 Days in Mariupol - will win, did win

Best Original Song

It Never Went Away— Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson (American Symphony) - spoiler

What Was I Made For?— Billie Eilish and Finneas (Barbie) - will win, did win

Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People—The Osage Tribe (Killers of the Flower Moon)

I’m Just Ken— Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (Barbie)

The Fire Inside— Diane Warren (Flamin’ Hot)

Best Original Score

Jerskin Fendrix (Poor Things) - spoiler

Ludwig Göransson (Oppenheimer) - will win, did win

Laura Karpman (American Fiction)

Robbie Robertson (Killers of the Flower Moon)

John Williams (Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny)

Best Documentary Short Subject

The ABCs of Book Banning - spoiler

The Barber of Little Rock

Island in Between

The Last Repair Shop  - will win, did win

Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

Best Live Action Short

The After 

Invincible 

Knight of Fortune 

Red, White and Blue - spoiler

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar - will win, did win

Best Animated Short

Letter to a Pig - will win

Ninety-Five Senses

Our Uniform

Pachyderme

War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko - spoiler, did win

So I think the best pic nominees shake out like this:

American Fiction - adapted screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall - original screenplay

Barbie - production design, song

The Holdovers - supporting actress

Killers of the Flower Moon - actress boooooooo

Maestro - makeup

Oppenheimer - picture, director, actor, supporting actor, cinematography, editing, sound, score

Past Lives - *sniffles*

Poor Things - costume, production design, actress, makeup

The Zone of Interest - foreign, sound

All that said, I don't accept the legitimacy of this year's Oscars since All of Us Strangers was skunked, so:

Oscar Predictions

Given that I've been covering two jobs since October, I'm not really on top  of the race, but here we go. Past years: 2022: 16 (yikes), 2021: 20, 2020: 17, 2019: 19 (Bong!), 2018: 20, 2017: 15 (Moonlight!), 2016: 17, 2015: 21, 2014: 20, 2013: 18, 2012: 17, 2011: 17, 2010: 17, 2009: 20/21?

I am once again entering the ESPN contest, which has some BONKERS predictions going on*, beat the crowd, plus I somehow got invited to a private pool that has, uhhhh, some industry folks/critics/fanatics. I'm not sure how that happened. I'm picking against the odds on 4/5 categories (depending on who you look at.) My boldest pick is going BAFTA for Boy with the Heron. I just think people will go lifetime achievement (but I certainly wouldn't be sad if spiderverse won. I REALLY wanted it to come back to the Metreon imax.) And (for most contests) I'm swapping the Barbie/Poor Things Costume/Production Design picks. Plus the doc and animated shorts. We shall see. 

*I mean, To Kill a Tiger for doc? Invincible for live action short? Really? Then again, stranger things have happened...

Also - I usually put "should win" in here, but I still have to see 4 of the best picture nominees (again - covering two roles since Oct...), so I am mostly not doing them. My plan is to try to catch up this week and pick my top films next weekend. (But again - we'll see. I have to work late at least one night this week.)

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall - spoiler

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer - will win

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

If Oppenheimer doesn't win, I'll eat my fedora. 

Best Director

Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)

Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) - will win

Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) - spoiler

Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Best Actress

Annette Bening (Nyad)

Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) - will win

Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

Emma Stone (Poor Things) - spoiler

This is the only acting race that is up in the air. Emma won the BAFTA and CCA, Lily won the drama GG and SAG. Both actors and European are large voting blocs. But I think that the Academy voters will go for the historical significance of the win. And I loved Lily SO much in Certain Women I'm pulling for her. 

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) - spoiler

Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) - will win

Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)

Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Robert Downey, Jr. (Oppenheimer) - will win

Ryan Gosling (Barbie) - spoiler

Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) - spoiler

Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

America Ferrera (Barbie)

Jodie Foster (Nyad)

Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) - will win

Best International Feature Film

Io Capitano (Matteo Garrone, Italy)

Society of the Snow (J.A. Bayona, Spain) - Spoiler

The Teachers’ Lounge (İlker Çatak, Germany)

The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer, United Kingdom) - will win

Perfect Days (Wim Wenders, Japan)

I'm going with Zone, since it's up for best picture (Anatomy won more precursors, but was ineligible.) I still can't believe Teacher's Lounge got in over Fallen Leaves, Taste of Things, or 20 days. 

Best Cinematography

Ed Lachman (El Conde)

Matthew Libatique (Maestro)

Rodrigo Prieto (Killers of the Flower Moon) - spoiler

Robbie Ryan (Poor Things)

Hoyte van Hoytema (Oppenheimer) - will win

Best Adapted Screenplay

Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig (Barbie)

Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Cord Jefferson (American Fiction) - will win

Tony McNamara (Poor Things) - spoiler

Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

I think this is where American Fiction gets its oscar. 

Best Original Screenplay

Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik (May December)

Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer (Maestro)

Arthur Harari and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) - will win

David Hemingson (The Holdovers)

Celine Song (Past Lives) - spoiler

I think this is where Anatomy gets its oscar. Sadly, this is where Past Lives had its best shot. (I think Holdovers is also a strong spoiler here)

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron - will win

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Spoiler

The money is on Spider-verse (PGA, CCA, ACE, NBR), which I think in many ways is the better film, but I think voters will give it to Miyazaki for his career. (Heron won the BAFTA & GG)

Best Visual Effects

The Creator; Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould - Spoiler

Godzilla Minus One; Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima  - will win

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3; Theo Bialek, Stephanie Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot & Guy Williams

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One; Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould

Napoleon; Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould

The Creator won the VES, the BAFTA and CCA went to non-nominated films. But I think Godzilla has the name recognition and they've done a great job with the narrative on the director/vfx and akubrick comparisons. 

Best Editing

Jennifer Lame (Oppenheimer) - will win

Yorgos Mavropsaridis (Poor Things)

Thelma Schoonmaker (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Laurent Sénéchal (Anatomy of a Fall) - spoiler

Kevin Tent (The Holdovers)

Best Production Design

Ruth De Jong and Claire Kaufman (Oppenheimer)

Jack Fisk and Adam Willis (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer (Barbie) - will win

Elli Griff and Arthur Max (Napoleon)

Shona Heath, Szusza Mihalek, and James Price (Poor Things) - Spoiler

So Barbie, interestingly, didn't win the guild award, Poor Things did (along with Oppenheimer and Saltburn). But I think voters will go for the actual built dream house. 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, and Ahou Mofid (Oppenheimer)

Mark Coulier, Nadia Stacey, and Josh Weston (Poor Things) - Spoiler

Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro, and Lori McCoy-Bell (Maestro) - will win

Karen Hartley and Suzi Battersby (Golda)

Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí, and Montse Ribé (Society of the Snow)

I nearly put Poor Things, which won the BAFTA, but I do think Maestro (which won the guild) and Kazu Hiro will take it.

Best Costume Design

Jacqueline Durran (Barbie) - spoiler

Ellen Mirojnick (Oppenheimer)

Holly Waddington (Poor Things) - Will win, Should win

Jacqueline West (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Janty Yates and David Crossman (Napoleon)

This could easily go Barbie. They both won guild awards (along with Saltburn), Barbie won the CCA, Poor Things the BAFTA. Weirdly, I have Poor Things down as a spoiler in many categories, but this might be my only prediction for a win. 

(Look. I liked Jacqueline Durran's costumes for Peterloo, and Haley's dresses in Cyrano, and the green dress will always be perhaps the most iconic. But Little Women was recent.)

Best Sound

The Creator; Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic

Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One; Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

The Zone of Interest; Johnnie Burn and Tarn Willers - spoiler

Oppenheimer; Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell, and Gary A. Rizzo - will win

Maestro; Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder, and Dean Zupancic

Big boom.

(Zone won the BAFTA and Maestro one of the MPSEs. Oppenheimer won the other two MPSEs and the CAS.) 

Best Documentary Feature

Bobi Wine: The People’s President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters - spoiler

To Kill a Tiger

20 Days in Mariupol - will win

Won the BAFTA, was the only nominee also up for a PGA, I think voters will go for the subject matter and story. 

Best Original Song

It Never Went Away— Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson (American Symphony) - spoiler

What Was I Made For?— Billie Eilish and Finneas (Barbie) - will win

Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People—The Osage Tribe (Killers of the Flower Moon)

I’m Just Ken— Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (Barbie)

The Fire Inside— Diane Warren (Flamin’ Hot)

Billie won the GG and the guild, Ken won the CCA. (Also HOW GOOD was the choice of Bury a Friend for the new True Detective?) (Are either of Billie's oscar songs my favorites of hers? Not so much, but she's great and I'm happy for her to win.)

HOWEVER, since American Symphony won a lot of precursors, but didn't make the nom, and Jon Batiste is beloved by voters, I am picking him for the spoiler, in case Barbie splits its own votes. 

Best Original Score

Jerskin Fendrix (Poor Things) - spoiler

Ludwig Göransson (Oppenheimer) - will win

Laura Karpman (American Fiction)

Robbie Robertson (Killers of the Flower Moon)

John Williams (Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny)

Oppenheimer won the BAFTA, CCA and GG. 

Best Documentary Short Subject

The ABCs of Book Banning - spoiler

The Barber of Little Rock

Island in Between

The Last Repair Shop  - will win

Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

Book banning is the hot political issue, but Last Replair shop was up for more precursors, so I'm bucking the pundits. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Best Live Action Short

The After 

Invincible 

Knight of Fortune 

Red, White and Blue - spoiler

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar - will win

I mean, it's great. I could see voters going with the relevant abortion story though. 

Best Animated Short

Letter to a Pig - will win

Ninety-Five Senses

Our Uniform

Pachyderme

War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko - spoiler

War is Over seems awful, and I can't believe it's leading in the odds, but maybe academy voters would go for something that trite and call it 'talking about the middle east'? I've only seen Letter to a Pig, but short of the week also liked Pachyderme and Our Uniform, and Ross reports that he thinks Pachyderme is the best of the bunch. 

(Also - I did think Letter to a Pig was well done, and I wonder how the holocaust films will do in voting.)

So I think the best pic nominees shake out like this:

American Fiction - adapted screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall - original screenplay

Barbie - production design, song

The Holdovers - supporting actress

Killers of the Flower Moon - actress

Maestro - makeup

Oppenheimer - picture, director, actor, supporting actor, cinematography, editing, sound, score

Past Lives - *sniffles*

Poor Things - costume

The Zone of Interest - foreign