So,
much like last year, I missed the Oscar noms. This time because I was in Africa. That said, my work *has* been so busy since October of '23 that I am still trying to catch up on both the race and the last two years of films. I considered stopping the tradition this year, but the fact is that I still really enjoy my few regular blogs (oscar noms, oscars, my faves, and my annual playlist (still to come this year because, again: Africa.)) So I have managed to pretty well avoid the oscar news for the last three weeks, but I will note places where I think I've been spoiled (mostly best actress). However, there could again be a case like Ryan Gosling last year where I think I've been spoiled in one direction but misinterpreted a headline for trying to look away so fast.
2023 (82/120 (68%); 107/120 (89%)) 2022 (91/120 (75.8%); 114/120 (95%)) 2021 (79/120 (65.8%); 108/120 (90%)) 2020 (84/118 (71%); 110/118 (93%)) 2019 (88/124 (71%); 113/124 (91%)) 2018 (91/121 (75%); 113/121 (93.4%)) 2017 (90/122 (73.8%); 118/122 (96.7%))
I think I'm going to change up the formatting and put correct in bold purple (or blue for spoilers), and anything totally missed in italic red. Color commentary after the noms in burgundy.
Total: 89/120. Not bad for being out of the loop! (74.2%) Third best!
With Spoilers: 110/120. Meh. Middle of the road for me. (91.67%) Fifth best.
Perfect Categories: Best Supporting Actor, Foreign Film, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design
Missed: 5 shorts, the Wild Robot for Sound, Elton John for Song, Alien for VFX (whoops. I got cocky), A Complete Unknown for Costume (? scarves?), and I'm Still Here for Best Picture (what?!)
Best Picture
I'm assuming 10 here, and it feels a little more open than the last couple of years (but maybe just because I'm less in the loop):
Definite:
1. A Complete Unknown (PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, NBR top 10, GG, AFI top 10)
2. Anora (PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, NBR top 10, GG-c, NSFC runner up, gotham, indie, won LAFC, won BritIndie, AFI top 10)
3. Emilia Perez (PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, won GG-c, AFI top 10, won EFA)
4. Conclave (PGA, BAFTA, BAFTA-brit, SAG, CCA, NBR top 10, GG, AFI top 10)
5. Wicked (PGA, SAG, CCA, won NBR, GG-c, AFI top 10)
6. The Brutalist (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, won GG, runner up LAFC, won NYFCC, AFI top 10)
Likely:
7. The Substance (PGA, CCA, GG-c, indie, EFA)
8. Dune pt II (PGA, CCA, GG, AFI top 10)
Guessing:
9. September 5 (PGA, GG)
10. A Real Pain (did I end up picking the PGAs? oops. Apparently.) (PGA, CCA-c, NBR top 10, GG-c, AFI top 10)
Spoilers
Nickel Boys (CCA, GG, won NSFC, indie, AFI top 10) (I feel like I heard Nickel Boys got skunked. I think?)
Sing Sing (CCA, NBR top 10, indie, AFI top 10)
Queer (NBR top 10)
Challengers (GG-c, gotham)
Babygirl (NBR top 10, gotham)
I'm Still Here. WOW. It has been a minute since we've had a left-field Best Picture nom! I'm guessing this got in due to the subject matter, as I had no precursors for it outside of foreign.
Also - Yay! Glad Nickel Boys made it in. I'm fascinated by what felt like a lack of a campaign around September 5, which generally seems like oscar catnip based on the subject.
Editing
Anora (BAFTA, CCA, ACE-c)
Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, ACE)
Dune (BAFTA, CCA, ACE)
Emilia Perez (BAFTA, ACE)
Challengers (CCA, ACE-c)
Spoilers
Kneecap (BAFTA, won BritIndie)
September 5 (this has no momentum from what I can tell, but: indie, CCA, and won LAFC (tie)
Substance (Ace-c)
Brutalist (indie)
Wicked (ACE-c)
(Furiosa is flashy and has a guild nod, but I think Substance, Wicked and Brutalist have more momentum.)
It is so weird to me that Conclave got passed over in Director and Cinematography, but made it into Editing. I can't tell how the Academy feels about it at all. (Also: I thought the editing of Challengers was a mess, but I thought it might get the non-best picture flashy spot)
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo - Wicked (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG-C)
Demi Moore - Substance (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Won GG-C, gotham, Indie, Runner up LAFC)
Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez (I'm pretty sure I've been spoiled on this, but also SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG-C)
Mikey Madison - Anora (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG-C, runner up NSFC, Gotham, Indie, NBR bkth)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths (BAFTA, CCA, won NFSC, gotham, won NYFCC, won LAFC, won Brit Indie)
Spoilers
Pamela Anderson (SAG, GG, gotham) The SAGs are usually the best predictor, but I feel like the BAFTAs sometimes help show the European skew since the Academy was opened up, and she didn't have as clean a sweep this year as the other SAG noms. I think she's the leading spoiler, but I suppose we could also put in:
Angelina Jolie (CCA, GG). I'm really sorry this campaign didn't work better. At least both Natalie Portman and Kristen Stewart got noms for their films.
Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here (won GG, runner up LAFC)
Nicole Kidman (GG, gotham, won NBR)
Saoirse Ronan (BAFTA, gotham, brit indie)
Boo for Marianne! I think I saw a precursor article that said if she didn't get a nod, it shows how broken the Oscars are. That said, I love how international they are becoming!
Best Actor
Adrien Brody - Brutalist (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, won GG, runner up NSFC, gotham, won NYFCC)
Colman Domingo - Sing Sing (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG, won NSFC, won Gotham, Indie)
Daniel Craig - Queer (SAG, CCA, GG, won NBR, EFA)
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG, runner up NSFC, EFA)
Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Spoilers
I suppose Sebastian Stan? Although I feel like he splits his own votes. He was nommed for a BAFTA, Indie and GG for the apprentice, and won a GG-C for A Different Man.
Hugh Grant is probably the only other real spoiler outside of something left field, as he got a BAFTA, CCA, and GG-C for Heretic.
Out side of that, the options are: Jesse Eisenberg, Glen Powell, Abou Sangare. Maybe Keith Kupferer? Jesse Plemons?
(Isn't it nice that so many more women get meaty roles these days? I didn't even mention Amy Adams or June Squibb or Renate Reinsve or Kate Winslet or Zendaya) (I mean - obviously there are others, but even those above are pretty far out of the conversation, I feel.)
Awww boo. I heard such good things about Daniel Craig in that role (although my guess is the film falling apart in the back half probably didn't help.) Plus I'm guessing a fair few folks wanted to needle trump.
Best Supporting Actress (I did get spoiled on this category while traveling back to the US, but (clearly) only remembered Ariana Grande)
Ariana Grande - Wicked (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Danielle Deadwyler (SAG, CCA, Indie, gotham)
Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, won GG)
Jamie Lee Curtis (SAG, BAFTA) It is WEIRD that she had no precursors and then she got the big two at the end
Isabella Rossellini - Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, GG). My thinking here is that Conclave seems like a juggernaut. So does the Brutalist (Felicity, below), but I feel like I've heard more about Isabella.
Spoilers
Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown (SAG) It is SO WEIRD that is her only nom, that even though it's the SAG, and the actors are the largest branch...
Felicity Jones - Brutalist (BAFTA, GG)
Selena Gomez - Emilia Perez (BAFTA, GG)
Margaret Qualley - Substance (CCA, GG)
Aunjane Ellis-Taylor (runner up NSFC, CCA)
This category is MUCH more spread out than the others. Elle Fanning won the NBR, Danielle is the only of the Indie noms with a chance, Michelle Austin won the NSFC for Hard Truths. Also I just want to flag that I love the gothams for recognizing Lily Collias as a breakthrough for Good One.
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain (SAG, BAFTA, won NSFC, CCA, won GG, gotham, indie, won NBR, won LAFC (tie), won NYFCC. I mean, this is his to lose)
Yura Borisov - Anora (SAG, BAFTA, CCA, GG, gotham, indie, won LAFC (tie)). I love this performance SO MUCH.
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown (SAG, BAFTA, runner up NSFC, CCA, GG)
Here's where I get quite torn. I think Guy Pearce (Brutalist) because BAFTA, runner up NSFC, CCA, GG, gotham, plus the Brutalist momentum. But he didn't get the SAG. I also fully acknowledge I'm biased toward him because I love him.
And then I think Jeremy Strong because SAG, BAFTA, GG. It just *feels* like it's a Succession victory lap, no? (Then again, that won McConaughey the oscar, so.)
Spoilers
Jonathan Bailey - Wicked (SAG). Like Monica Barbaro - SO WEIRD he was only nominated for a SAG! He's pretty beloved, and Wicked may have more momentum than A Complete Unknown (although that's been picking up speed...) It just feels weird that even being British he didn't get a BAFTA nom.
Clarence Maclin (BAFTA, CCA, won gotham, Indie, runner up LAFC) I hope he spoils!
That's basically it. But I'll say Adam Pearson (runner up NSFC, gotham, Indie, runner up LAFC), Denzel Washington (CCA, GG, famous), and Brandon Wilson (gotham - won bkth) for the last three. I'm 99% sure Nickel Boys is going to be skunked, perhaps Aunjane aside. (I haven't seen it yet and have heard the central conceit doesn't really work, but I like that something experimental is in the conversation, I know it's beloved among a few, and I still really want to see Hale County.) But that's pretty much it. All the other men who have been nominated have been things like breakthrough or the Brit Indies. The only remaining major award is Karren Karagulian for the Indie, and folks will vote for Yura instead.
Director
Brady Corbet - Brutalist (DGA, CCA, BAFTA, won GG, indie)
Edward Berger - Conclave (DGA, CCA, BAFTA, GG)
Sean Baker - Anora (DGA, CCA, BAFTA, runner up NSFC, GG, gotham, indie, runner up LAFC)
Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez (DGA, CCA, BAFTA, GG, won EFA)
And finally, I realize James Mangold is probably the smart fifth pick, but I cannot with five men, and Coralie Fargeat (Substance) did get the BAFTA nod, in addition to the CCA and GG, so fingers crossed. (Also: I LOVE Revenge, so.)
Spoilers
James Mangold - A Complete Unknown (DGA)
Denis Villenueve - Dune (CCA, BAFTA)
RaMell Ross (CCA, runner up NSFC, won Gotham, won NYFCC)
Payal Kapadia (won NSFC, GG, gotham)
Jon Chu - Wicked (CCA)
Yay for Coralie making it in!! I really wonder what it means that A Complete Unknown beat Conclave, which felt like it had a lot of admirers.
Original Screenplay
A Real Pain (WGA, BAFTA, won NSFC, CCA, GG)
Anora (WGA, BAFTA, runner up NSFC, CCA, GG)
Brutalist (WGA ineligible, BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Substance (WGA ineligible, BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Challengers (WGA, CCA)
Spoilers
September 5 (CCA, WGA ineligble)
Kneecap (BAFTA)
Civil War (WGA)
My Old Ass (WGA, indie)
Hard Truths (won NBR)
Adapted Screenplay
Nickel Boys (WGA, BAFTA, CCA, USC)
Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, won GG, USC)
A Complete Unknown (WGA, BAFTA, USC)
Sing Sing (WGA ineligble, BAFTA, CCA, USC, won NBR)
Emilia Perez (BAFTA, CCA, GG, won EFA)
Spoilers
The last one will probably be Emilia Perez, but I would be delighted if Hit Man made it in (WGA)
Dune pt. II (WGA, CCA)
Wicked (WGA, CCA)
Wild Robot (USC)
Room Next Door (EFA)
Animated
Flow (YAY!) (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, won GG, ACE, won NBR, Annie-indie, won NYFCC, won LAFC, won EFA, ADG, won AiF)
Inside Out 2 (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, GG, ACE, 7 Annie, ADG, VES, MPSE)
Moana 2 (PGA, GG, ACE, ADG, VES)
Wild Robot (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, GG, ACE, 10 Annie, ADG, VES, MPSE)
Wallace & Gromit (PGA, BAFTA, CCA, GG, ACE, 7 Annie, ADG, VES)
Spoilers
Memoir of a Snail (CCA, GG, Annie-indie, AiF special jury prize)
That Christmas (6 Annie)
Kung Fu Panda 4 (Annie)
Savages (EFA)
Mufasa (VES, MPSE)
Documentary
No Other Land (BAFTA, won NSFC, won IDA, won gotham, indie, won LAFC, won NYFCC, NBR Freedom of Expression award, won CinemaEye, won EFA)
Porcelain War (PGA, DGA, CinemaEye) (Also - the PGA noms this year were BONKERS)
Sugarcane (DGA, CCA, IDA, gothams, indie-bkth, won NBR, Cinemaeye)
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (DGA, runner up NSFC, IDA, gotham, indie, cinemaeye, EFA)
Daughters (DGA, BAFTA, CCA, cinemaeye)
Spoilers
Black Box Diaries (BAFTA, IDA, NBR top 5, Cinemaeye)
Dahomey (runner up NSFC, IDA, gotham, runner up LAFC, NBR top 5, cinemaeye, EFA)
Will & Harper (BAFTA, CCA, ACE, NBR top 5, Cinemaeye audience nom, mpse)
Hollywoodgate (DGA, cinemaeye prod nom)
Remarkable Life of Ibelin (CCA, IDA, won cinemaeye score)
I remain devastated Nocturnes was overlooked. And I still really want to see Pictures of Ghosts.
Foreign
Emilia Perez (GG, BAFTA, CCA, EFA, mpse)
Seed of the Sacred Fig (GG, BAFTA, CCA, runner up NSFC, runner up LAFC, won NBR, EFA)
I'm Still Here (GG, BAFTA, CCA, NBR top 5)
Girl with the Needle. Maybe wishful thinking, but GG, NBR top 5, mpse.
Flow. Fingers crossed. (CCA, indie,
Spoiler
Kneecap. This doesn't *feel* like an Oscar pick, but the BAFTA makes it feel like a very possible nom. ( CCA also)
Vermiglio (GG, EFA, gotham)
Santosh (NBR top 5)
Universal Language (top 5)
Armand (EFA bkth)
HELL YES FLOW! And Girl with the Needle!
Cinematography
Conclave (guild, BAFTA, CCA)
Nosferatu (guild, BAFTA, runner up NSFC, CCA, NBR)
The Brutalist (guild, BAFTA, runner up NSFC, CCA, runner up LAFC)
Dune pt II (guild, BAFTA, CCA)
Nickel Boys (Indies, won NSFC, won NYFCC, CCA, won LAFC)
Spoilers
Emilia Perez (BAFTA)
Wicked (Guild, CCA)
A Complete Unknown (guild)
Maria (guild)
Substance (won EFA)
Costume
Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, guild-C). Also, what?
Nosferatu (BAFTA, CCA, guild-P)
Wicked (BAFTA, CCA, guild-F)
Maria (CCA, guild-P)
And this is probably insane, but: Devil's Bath (won EFA)
Spoilers
Gladiator (CCA, guild-P)
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (guild-F)
Dune (guild-F, CCA)
Normally I'd say the guild period noms have the edge, but in this case, I'm thinking Emilia Perez and Substance just have a better chance than Furiosa and Saturday Night.
A Complete Unknown. Hmmm - I smell momentum.
Makeup
Wicked (BAFTA, CCA, guild)
Nosferatu (BAFTA, CCA)
Substance (BAFTA, CCA, guild)
Spoilers
Dune pt 2 (BAFTA, CCA) If ever there were a year for 4...
Emilia Perez (BAFTA, guild)
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (CCA, guild)
A Different Man (CCA, guild)
Look - I am putting Emilia in since there are 5 noms. Which, you would think I would have remembered they moved to SIX YEARS AGO. (I googled to remind myself how many there were, and google said 3 most years, because AI is the fucking worst.)
Production Design
Brutalist (BAFTA, won LAFC, CCA, guild-P)
Dune (BAFTA, CCA, guild-F)
Nosferatu (BAFTA, CCA, guild-P)
Wicked (BAFTA, CCA, guild-F)
Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, guild-C)
Spoilers
Gladiator II (CCA, guild-P)
A Complete Unknown (guild-P)
Girl with the Needle (won EFA)
Furiosa (guild-F)
Blitz (LAFC runner up)
Visual Effects
Better Man (BAFTA, CCA, VES)
Dune (BAFTA, CCA, VES)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (BAFTA, CCA, VES)
Wicked (BAFTA, CCA)
Gladiator (BAFTA, CCA)
Spoilers
Twisters (VES)
Civil War (won BritInie, VES-photoreal)
Mufasa (VES)
I'm not putting Alien or Deadpool.
Whoops.
Score
Brutalist (BAFTA, guild, CCA, GG)
Emilia Perez (BAFTA, guild, CCA, GG)
Conclave (BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Challengers (CCA, won LAFC, won GG)
Wild Robot (BAFTA, CCA, GG)
Spoilers
Nosferatu (BAFTA)
Wicked (Guild)
That's it for nominations on the shortlist (sorry Queer isn't up for a double Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross.) So, knowing nothing about the scores for these, but I'll go Babygirl, Beetlejuice, and Gladiator.
Boooooooo. What does the Academy have against Trent Reznor??? (I mean, besides the fact that they are all old.)
Song
The Journey - Six Triple Eight (Diane Warren. That's it. I'm never not guessing her again.) (but also guild nom)
El Mal - Emilia Perez (won GG, CCA)
Compress/Repress - Challengers (GG, CCA)
Kiss the Sky - Wild Robot (GG, CCA, guild)
Out of Oklahoma - Twisters (guild)
Spoilers
Mi Camino - Emilia Perez (GG, CCA)
Like a Bird - Sing sing (guild)
Harper and Will go West (CCA) (although will Oscars bump anything trans given current events?)
Sick in the Head - Kneecap
Beyond - Moana 2
Never Too Late - Elton John Never Too Late
(I do think Tell Me It's You has a strong chance - because: Lin Manuel, but I'm thinking Kneecap is a musical, and Moana was better received.)
Sound
Dune (BAFTA, CAS, MPSEx2)
Wicked (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE)
A Complete Unknown (CAS, MPSE)
Gladiator II (BAFTA, CAS)
Blitz (BAFTA)
Spoilers
Deadpool (CAS, MPSEx2)
Alien (CAS, MPSEx2)
Emilia Perez
Joker
The Wild Robot. What? (I mean, it was on the shortlist, but had no precursors. And when was the last time an animated film made sound?) (Soul. The answer is Soul.)
Short Doc
I Am Ready Warden (cinemaeye shortlist)
Incident (won cinemaeye)
A Swim Lesson (cinemaeye shortlist)
Makayla's Voice (cinemaeye shortlist)
Once Upon a Time in Ukraine (no precursors, but I figure the subject)
Spoilers
Instruments of a Beating Heart (cinemaeye shortlist, IDA)
Eternal Father (cinemaeye shortlist)
Only Girl in the Orchestra (cinemaeye shortlist)
Until he's back (IDA)
Planetwalker
Death by Numbers
Short Live
Crust
I'm Not a Robot
A Lien
Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Orange from Jaffa
Spoilers
Room Taken
Paris 70
Ice Cream Man
Clodagh
Masterpiece
Anuja
The Last Ranger
Short Animated
Beautiful Men (Annie)
Crab in the Pool (AiF special jury prize)
In the Shadow of the Cypress (Annie)
Wander to Wonder (Annie, BAFTA-brit, won AiF)
Au Revoir Mon Monde (I LOVED this one, so I'm pulling for it.)
Spoilers
Those in the know say Me, but I'm just hoping others felt the way I did about Au Revoir.
The Wild-Tempered Clavier
The 21
A Bear Named Wojtek
Maybe Elephants
Magic Candies
Yuck!
